lecture: prospective environmental assessments coupling ... · example 2: copper indium gallium...

1Prospective Environmental Assessments

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Lecture:

Prospective Environmental Assessments

Coupling scenario analysis and MFA

Case Study: Implications of future

electricity generation on metal

demand and availability


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Goals

Learning goal

1. Getting to know examples of prospective

assessments with a combined scenario analysis and

dynamic material flow analysis

2. Understanding for the case of electricity generation,

how the methods of the lecture can be applied to

• assess whether technology growth could be limited

by future resource limitations

• assess the consequences of technology use on

future metal availability


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Background and motivation

IEA 2013 (World Energy Outlook 2012)

Energy demand is increasing Energy provision is associated with

negative (environmental)

consequences

OECD

Non-OECD

GDPTotal primary

energy demand

1971 1980 1990 2000 2012

Background

Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014

OECD


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• The geochemical scarcity of the metals applied fostered concerns:


Wäger, 2011, data from Hagelueken & Meskers

(2010)

% mined

1978-2008

% mined

1900-1978

Johnson et al. (2007), based on private

communication with Intel Corporation

Increasing primary production Increasing complexity



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• The geochemical scarcity of the metals applied fostered concerns:


Prior et al. (2012)Wäger et al. (2011)

Declining ore grades (example gold) Rising environmental impacts of

resource provision

Green: Geochemically scarce

metals

Supply constraints could impede a large scale implementation of some technologies



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• Potential future demand can be modeled to assess potential pressure

on supply system of a geochemically scarce metal.

• This quantitative modeling has often been based on static model

parameters.

• Reliable estimations on resource availability are lacking, which

impedes a sound interpretation on possible supply restrictions.

Guiding question & research gap

How will future electricity generation and in particular a

transition towards currently emerging and potentially more

sustainable technologies in the energy sector affect the supply

and demand for scarce metals (and how will the scarcity of

metals affect technology growth)?



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• Scenarios of future electricity production

• Dynamic material flow model that links postulated future

implementation rates of technologies for electricity provision to

primary metal demand

• Discussion of how and if the increased metal demand could be met

by the supply system – which changes are necessary and how they

could influence environmental impacts?

Approach

2 examples:

1. General study on Overall worldwide electricity generation on

metal demand

2. More detailed study on Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS)

solar cells and implications on indium demand and supply


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Goals

Example 1: «Dynamic analysis of the

global metals flows and stocks in

electricity generation technologies»

A. Elshkaki & T.E. Graedel, Journal of Clearner Production 59 (2013), 260-273


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GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)

Scenarios (2050)

Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013

«Market first scenario»

• Market-driven developments

• Business as usual

• For renewables: only existing policies are taken into account

«Policy first scenario»

• Strong governmental actions to reach social and environmental goals

• Renewables: takes into account existing policies and assumes successful

implementation of targets


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Past and current electricity production for 57 countries (aggregated to 11

regions) and existing energy scenarios as point of departure:

- GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)

Current electricity supply and scenarios

(2050)


«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»

TW

h

TW

h


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Current electricity supply and scenarios

(2050)



TW

h

TW

h

Worldwide electricity production: technology split


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Electricity production from wind and

solar technologies



TW

h

TW

h


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Assumptions for modeling electricity

generation technologies


• Wind: market share of offshore wind farms grow from currently 2% to 50%

in 2050

• PV: equal market shares of multi and singlechristalline silicon

technologies assumed; market share of thin film increases and the three

technologies have equal shares (amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS)

• Concentrated solar power: power tower and parabolic trough technology

• Hydropower: run-of-river and reservoir

• Geothermal: hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems

• Biomass: Cogeneration heat and electricity plant

• Nuclear: pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor

• Coal, gas, oil: «average» power plant (no distinction between

technologies)

More technological detail for renewables


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Modeling metal stocks and flows

(dynamic MFA)


1. Modeling annual installed electricity capacity per technology

The market share of each «sub-technology» was multiplied to the cumulative

installed electricity to get sub-technology specific values

discarded capacity modeled as delayed inflow:

2. Metal flows: estimated based on technology inflow multiplied by metal

content


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Results: Metal demand


MF: market first; PF: policy first

Strong increase for all metals in policy first scenario

Compared to current production level, Nd (used in wind generators) does not have a

problem, while Te and In (mainly used in PV) need to increase significantly production

capacities to meet future demand


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Results: Metal cumulative demand (until 2050)

compared to 2010 reserve estimation (policy first

scenario)


In and Te may become resource limted AND these three metals are additionally

used in non-energy applications (Te in metallurgical alloys and chemicals, In in flat

panels and alloys)

Companion metals (production can only be increased by more efficient recovery

from host metals)

However, reserve estimations are uncertain (and likely to increase)


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Results: Stocks


For some metals (e.g. Nd) recycling will not play a major role in the near future

Other metals (e.g. Ag) may be available for other applications in the future, if trend towards

less Si-based PV continues

Geographical distribution of metal «resources» will change

Nd stock in wind turbines Indium reserves and in-use-stocks


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Results: Average demand from 2010 – 2050 compared

to 2010 production level for base metals


Base metals are not an issue



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• Base metals (Al, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Fe) are not a problem

• Metal resources will be relocated geographically (from locations with

natural reserves to countries with large in-use stocks)

• No metal supply problems for wind power technology

• Potential metal availability issues for (all) PV technologies:

– Silver for silicon based technologies

– Tellurium for cadmium telluride technology

– Indium for CIGS

– Germanium for amorphous silicon

Conclusions



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Goals

Example 2: Copper indium gallium

selenide (CIGS) solar cells

A. Stamp et al. Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case

of indium in CIGS solar cells, Resources, Conservation and Recycling 93 (2014)

156–167


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grey box: material flow model

circles: model input

rhombi: output variables

Approach

Source: Stamp et al. 2014


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No Title Short descriptionRefere

nce

sc1Technology

Roadmap Solar

Optimistic but plausible roadmap for PV implementation.

Identification of technology, economic and policy targets needed to

realize these future growth rates.

PV contribution on global electricity production in 2050:

11% (=4500 TWh/a)

(IEA,

2010)

sc2

energy

[r]evolution –

Reference

Scenario

Business as usual pathway, based on reference scenario in IEA

(2004) with extrapolation from 2030 to 2050.

PV contribution on global electricity production in 2050:


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No Title Short description Reference

sc4Solar Generation 6

– Reference

Business as usual pathway, based on reference

scenario in IEA (2009) extrapolated from 2030 to 2050.

PV contribution on global electricity production in

2050:

1-2%a) (=562 TWh/a)

(EPIA and

Greenpeace, 2011)sc5

Solar Generation 6

– Accelerated

Scenario

Potential of PV with faster deployment rates than in

recent years, by continuation of current support

policies.


2050:

11-14% a) (=4450 TWh/a)

sc6

Solar Generation 6

– Paradigm Shift

Scenario

“Full potential of PV”, with high level of political

commitment.


2050:

17-21% a) (=6747 TWh/a)

Scenarios (electricity generation solar)

Source: Ph.D. thesis Anna Stamp, 2014


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Energy scenarios: electricity from PV


Business as usual

scenarios

«Full potential PV»

scenario

PV-optimistic

scenarios


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Scenarios for Indium use in non-energy applications


• Estimation of growth rates (high, medium and low scenario)

• Example: annual growth rates in coatings currently +13%; substitutions

are being explored for coatings, so «high» growth was assumed to be

equal to 4% (economic growth) according to US Department of Energy;

medium 2%, low 1%


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Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit

Market penetration CIGS

P1 Market share of

CIGS solar cells on

the PV market

Optimistic 0 2 5 13 25 37 48 50 %

Reference 0 2 4.5 9 15 21 28 30 %

Pessimistic 0 2 4 6.5 10 13.5 18 20 %

Technological progress CIGS

P2 Indium intensity

CIGS solar cells

(material intensity)

Optimistic 25.0 24.1 22.6 19.6 15.0 10.4 5.9 5.0 t/GW

Reference 30.0 29.0 27.5 24.4 19.5 14.6 10.0 9.0 t/GW

Pessimistic 40.0 39.1 37.6 34.6 30.0 25.4 20.9 20.0 t/GW

P3 CIGS module

lifetime

Optimistic 30 years

Reference 25 years

Pessimistic 20 years

Assumptions about market penetration and

technological progress CIGS cells



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Handling in anthroposphere CIGS

P4 Utilization rate

indium in CIGS solar

cell manufacturing

(material efficiency

Optimistic 17 21 26 37 55 73 89 93 %

Reference 17 20 24 32 45 57 69 72 %

Pessimistic 17 %

P5 Collection rate

CIGS solar cell

production scrap

Optimistic 87.5 87 85 80 70 60 53 52 %

Reference 87.5 87 86 84 80 76 73 73 %

Pessimistic 87.5 %

P6 Collection rate

EoL CIGS modules

Optimistic 85 %

Reference 40 %

Pessimistic 0 %

P7 Recovery rate

indium from EoL

CIGS modules

Optimistic 92 %

Reference 68 %

Pessimistic 0 %

P8 Recovery rate

indium from CIGS

solar cell production

scrap

Optimistic 25 28 33 44 60 76 92 95 %

Reference 25 27 31 38 50 62 73 75 %

Pessimistic 25 27 29 34 43 51 58 60 %

Assumptions about handling of CIGS cells



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Indium tin oxides (ITO) thin film applications

P9 Flat panel

displays lifetime

High 10 %

Average 7 %

Low 5 %

P10 Utilization rate

indium in ITO

manufacturing

High 30 30 34 43 62 80 92 93 %

Average 30 30 33 39 51 63 71 72 %

Low 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 %

P11 Collection rate

ITO production

scrap

Same as P5

P12 Collection rate

EoL flat panel

displays

High 50 %

Average 20 %

Low 15 %

P13 Recovery rate

indium from EoL flat

panel displays

High 0 1 4 16 43 69 84 85 %

Average 0 1 3 11 25 39 49 50 %

Low 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 4.0 5.0 %

P14 Recovery rate

indium from ITO

production scrap

High 74 74 77 80 85 89 94 95 %

Average 69 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 %

Low 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 %

Assumptions about other indium applications



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Cumulative primary indium demand from

CIGS solar cells associated with various

energy scenarios

Cumulative primary indium demand for

one scenario (sc3), with varying

assumptions for parameter groups

Results: Primary Indium demand for CIGS solar cells



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Results: Total primary Indium demand for all

applications



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Measures to adjust indium supply to increased demand

1. Improve extraction efficiency

2. Increase production of carrier metal zinc

3. Mine indium with other carrier metals

4. Access historic resources



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In = indium, Zn = zinc, Zn ore conc = zinc ore concentrate, 2N = 99% purity, 5N+ = >99.999%

purity..

Indium extraction efficiency from zinc ore to

high purity indium

Equipping all

mines with

indium-capable

smelters:

Efftot > 52%

Some new

projects have

90%

Efftot > 72%



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• Annual zinc production: 12 Mio t in 2010

• On average, zinc production has increased 3.5% per year

since 1900 (linked to construction and automotive industry,

particularly for galvanization)

Sufficient for lower bound estimation of Indium demand

For upper bound estimation: annual increase of 12 – 24 %

necessary (scenario 1 and 6)

Increase production of carrier metal zinc



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• Indium also occurs in copper, lead and tin minerals

Mine indium with other carrier metals

• Indium Corporation identified 15,000 t of indium as residue

reserves

• Usability of residue reserves depends on pollution

Access historic resources



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• The same amount of primary indium “invested” can sustain

considerably higher installed capacities of CIGS solar cells

– Prerequisites: higher efforts in reducing indium demand in the technology and in

keeping the indium in the anthropogenic cycle

• Possible changes in the supply system to react to increasing demand:

e.g. increasing the extraction efficiency of indium as a by-product of

zinc production in order to decrease dependency on future zinc

demand development

• Some optimism regarding securing the indium supply for an increased

CIGS solar cell implementation in the medium term, although higher

prices might be required

• Study cannot be generalized to other metals

Conclusions


lecture: prospective environmental assessments coupling ... · example 2: copper indium gallium...

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