Lecture Seriesin South Africa

Feb. 20–Mar. 10, 2011Oct. 8–Oct. 23, 2011Mar. 2–17, 2012Aug. 22–Sep. 4, 2012

Report onLecture in South Africa:

Let’s learn together how we develop our capacity toward sustainable world

February 20 to March 10, 2011Moto Ikeda

Motoki NaguraWataru Sasaki

Satyaban RatnaNaoko Miyamoto

Lecture components

• Univ. Pretoria• Principle of GFD to Undergrad 3rd (MI)• Sustainability science to Undergrad 1st (MI)• Statistical data analysis to Scientists & Grad (MN)

also at SAWS• Grads to Scientists & Grad (SR) also at SAWS• Ocean modeling to Scientists & Grad (WS)

• South African Weather Services• Oceanographic data assimilation to Scientists (MI)

Example: Coriolis force

• Consider an object on a rotating plane• Under conservation of angular momentum• The object is pushed along the rotating

direction or radial direction• Find out the force working on the object

• Compare with the result from coordinate transformation

Feedbacks among Urgent Issues

Water resource

Global warming Biodiversity

Energy

Food

Industrial developmentGlobalization

Health

Once each issue gets worse, it worsens the others.Can we solve all issues at once?

EOF modes

Gen et al. 2010

spatial structure time series

1st

mode

2nd

mode

• GrADS has a number of useful intrinsic functions– strlen(string) returns string length– sublin(string,n) returns line n from a multi‐line string

– subwrd(string,n) returns the nth word from a string

– substr(string,start,length) returns a sub‐string

GrADS Script Language: Functions

GrADS Script Language: Screen I/O• Screen output is handled by one of two commands:

– say expression• User input is handled by

– pull variable

Dec 2009 Dec 2010

Richards, K.J.

>10‐5 m2s‐1~10‐5 m2s‐1

• Recent high‐resolution measurements suggest that vertical diffusivity in the equatorial thermocline should be greater than 10‐5 (m2s‐1).• SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific is warmed by increasing background vertical diffusivity in the equatorial thermocline.• Small‐scale vertical mixing affects large‐scale ocean state and variability.

Impact of unresolved processes on ocean state

Small‐scale vertical mixing

Scale interaction

Large‐scale climate variation

Bottom topography WOA temperature at 3000mThe isopycnal rises over the Shatsky Rise.

Bottom topography effect

Streamfunction in the lower layer

Altimeter data + 2-layer modelVariational methodin the Kuroshio area

Lecture components (continued)• Univ. Western Cape• Climate change and oceanic roles to Grad (MI)• Climate variability in the Indian Ocean to Grad (MN)• Downscaling of atmospheric modeling to Grad (SR)• Coupled ocean-atmospheric modeling to Grad (WS)• Rhodes Univ. • Climate change and oceanic roles, Sea level rise and

sea ice, Climate-society modeling to Grad (MI)• Climate variability in the Indian Ocean to Grad (MN)• Downscaling of atmospheric modeling to Grad (SR)• Coupled ocean-atmospheric modeling to Grad (WS)

Components of the Sea‐level budget

Deep ocean (Antonov et al., GRL, 2005;   Kohl et al., JPO, 2007).

Ice sheets (linearly increases towards the 1990s estimates, as compiled in Lemke et al., IPCC, 2007)

Glacier and small‐ice caps (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2004).

Terrestrial storage (Ngo‐Duc et al., GRL, 2005).

Sea ice cover trend in the Arctic

• Winter (DJF) and summer (JJA)

• Beaufort and Chukchi• East Siberian and

Laptev• Barents and Kara

Climate-Society ModelingTemperature (T)

Carbon (C)

Production (P) Efficiency (E)

T: Temperature rise due to anthropogenic CO2C: Anthropogenic CO2P: Energy production (P=H･R, H: Energy/capita

and R: Population in developed countries/regions)E: Energy efficiency

Characteristics of students• Educational level is reasonable.• Shortage of faculty members gives space for us

to fill in. This is the case both in lectures and research supervision.

• For the second time, we can prepare activities matching with the main field at each university.

• We can help the students working on local problems using our general knowledge, and we will learn also the local aspects in turn.

Final remarks

• Needs in SA + Our specialty→Effective• Our members are suggested to participate in

the lecture series.• Take a balance between the races

Report onLecture in South Africa:

Let’s learn together how we develop our capacity toward sustainable world

October 8 to 23, 2011Moto Ikeda

Hitoshi TamuraTakeshi Sugimura

Kaoru Takahashi (JICA South Africa)

Lectures & other activities

• Univ. Fort Hare & Cape Peninsular Univ. Tech.• Workshop ‘Is COP17 relevant to Africa?’• Tsunami, Fukushima and climate change (MI)• Sustainability science (MI)• Ocean surface wave (HT)• Atmospheric modeling and numerical stability (TS)

• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research• Wave experimental laboratory

Workshop participants in East London

Feedbacks among Urgent Issues

Water resource

Global warming Biodiversity

Energy

Food

Industrial developmentGlobalization

Health

Once each issue gets worse, it worsens the others.Can we solve all issues at once?

Observed distribution

Cs-137 for a couple of weeks, Log[Bq/L],with data collected at black dots

10Bq/liter

Coastal model nested with K-O models

22

Fish with 20Bq/Kg of Cs-137superimposed on K-O model simulation

H. TamuraOcean wave theory, Disasters caused by waves,Wave power

Spatial distribution of the peak period and the peak direction

(1)Young wind wave

(3)Higher frequencySwell fr. S-Japan

(Swell-J)

(2)Lower frequency Swell fr. Pacific(Swell-P)

Generated by the seasonal surface

wind along the Baiu-front

The wave spectrum consisted of three wave systems cold front

Wave experiment laboratory at CSIR

Lectures and other components (continued)• Univ. Pretoria• Students’ seminar• Tsunami, Fukushima and climate change (MI)• Arctic climate change (MI)• Ocean surface waves (HT)• Atmospheric modeling and numerical stability (TS)• Agricultural Research Council• Climate-society modeling (MI)• South African Weather Service• Tsunami, Fukushima and climate change (MI)• Ocean surface waves (HT)

University of Pretoria

Sea ice cover trend in the Arctic

• Winter (DJF) and summer (JJA)

• Beaufort and Chukchi• East Siberian and

Laptev• Barents and Kara

Agricultural Research Council

Climate-Society ModelingTemperature (T)

Carbon (C)

Production (P) Efficiency (E)

T: Temperature rise due to anthropogenic CO2C: Anthropogenic CO2P: Energy production (P=H･R, H: Energy/capita

and R: Population in developed countries/regions)E: Energy efficiency

T. SugimuraAtmospheric modeling, Earth Simulator,Numerical stability analysis

Regional Atmospheric simulation using MSSG-A(urban resolving simulation)

top view

oblique view

MSSG-A : Atmospheric part of MSSG

river position

heat boundary layer

Clouds on Table Mountain (Cape Town)

Lectures and other components (continued)• Education Centre under US Embassy and UP

Collaboration• Observe tutorial session with junior high students

after ordinary school hour

• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research• Exchange information with young scientists• Ocean surface waves (HT)• Atmospheric modeling and numerical stability (TS)

Report onLecture in South Africa:

Let’s learn together how we develop our capacity toward sustainable world

March 2 to 17, 2012Moto Ikeda

Masaaki WakatsuchiShin`ichiro Kida

Yuya BabaNaoko Miyamoto

Lectures & other activities• Univ. Fort Hare• Sustainability science & Global warming (MI)• 15 students from the neighboring region• Morning and afternoon sessions for 4 days

• South African National Antarctic Programme & Rhodes Univ.

• Climate change in the polar oceans (MW)

• Univ. Cape Town• Discussion with scientists (SK) (YB)

Motoyoshi IkedaPlease call me Moto.mikeda@ees.hokudai.ac.jp1946 born in Tokyo, Japan1974 earn Ph.D1979 start research in North America1994 join Hokkaido University (northern Japan)2010 retireJapanese delegation for Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research (SCOR)

Radiation balance in the atmosphere

Absorption& heating

Longwave radiationShortwave radiation

Carbon dioxide

Atmosphere (750 x 10**9 ton)

Ocean(40000 x 10**9 ton)

Anthropogenic6 x 10**9

Global Carbon (Dioxide) Cycleexisting amount and annual flux

90 x

10*

*9

60 x

10*

*992 x 10**9

61 x 10**9

Terrestrial ecosystem(600 x 10**9 ton)

Soil(1000 x 10**9 ton)

Nature is important!

Feedbacks among Urgent Issues

Water resource

Global warming Biodiversity

Energy& resources

Food

Industrial developmentGlobalization

Health

Once each issue gets worse, it worsens the others.Can we solve all issues at once?

Prof. Wakatsuchi at Rhodes University

Lectures and other components (continued)• Univ. Pretoria• Sustainability science & Global warming (MI)• 15 students from Limpopo province• Morning and afternoon sessions for 4 days

• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Agricultural Research Council & South African Weather Service

• Oceanic roles on climate change (SK)• Numerical modeling of meteorological processes (YB)

Dr. Kida

Dr. Baba

Plan at next lecture series

• Intense lectures around Pretoria in August• Ikeda and two other scientists will give

lectures to post-graduate students from all around South Africa on sustainability science, global warming, meteorology, ocean science, statistics and numerical modeling.

Report onLecture in South Africa:

Let’s learn together how we develop our capacity toward sustainable world

August 22 to September 4, 2012Moto Ikeda

Sergey VarlamovTakeshi Doi

Lectures & other activities

• University of Zululand• Sustainability science & Global warming (MI)• Environmental sciences and information tech. (SV)• Climate system (TD)• Presentations by all students• 24 students from the neighboring region• Morning and afternoon sessions for 8 days

Generation equityBrundtland Commissionsustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

Do non-renewable resources really meet this rule?

We often notice negative effects from the previousgeneration, but the present generation receives debt as well as benefit from the previous generation.

Debt (example of Japan)Birth in1881‐18901891‐19001901‐19101911‐19201921‐19301931‐19401941‐19501951‐19601961‐19701971‐19801981‐19901991‐20002001‐20102011‐2020

makereceive

warpollutedenvironment

pensionpremium

globalwarming

globalwarming

war

pollutedenvironment

pensionpremium

Benefit Birth in1881‐18901891‐19001901‐19101911‐19201921‐19301931‐19401941‐19501951‐19601961‐19701971‐19801981‐19901991‐20002001‐20102011‐2020

receivecontribute

modernization

recoveryafter war

rice speciesimprovement

ricecomputer

modernization

recoveryafter war

computer

Let’s think

What other examples of inequity can we find around you?

Future Sea level rise predictionmainly thermal expansion in the upper ocean

Let’s try to estimate thermal steric height rise.How large is sea level rise by warming?The 400-m thick surface layer will warm up by 4 degC.The temperature effect is density reduction by0.2kg/m**3 per 1 deg at 15 degC (sea surface).

Steric height is calculated from sea water density.The water density is about 1000kg/m**3.Density is mass divided by volume. (kg/m**3) (kg) (m**3)Let’s calculate how much the sea water volume (1m**3) increases by using ‘volume is mass divided by density’.Let’s calculate how much sea level rises due to warming of the 400-m thick layer by 4 degC.

Contents: Environmental Sciencesand Information Technology

• Deliver simulations and observed data from climate, weather and oceanic states to society and customers

• Add values to environmental information• 1: practical advise on regional ocean prediction• 2: web applications of oil spill and other pollutions• 3: crontab, scripting and parallel sub-shells with Linux• 4: downloading and visualization of data• Exercise of web page construction

Based on PrincetonOcean Model (POM)

Global (excluding polar ocean): 1/10 degree grid, non-tidalNorth Western Pacific: 1/12 degree grid, non-tidalJapan Coastal Ocean: 1/36 degree grid, tide resolving

JCOPE/FOP/MiRI routinely operated ocean modeling system

100 m 200 m 1000 m

日本海(Japan Sea)

3/31 08:20

4/1 15:30

4/2 18:00

4/3 11:20

4/4 09:00

一部漂着久美浜付近

133° 134° 135°

AIGE号湧出油漂流経路図

Map prepared by Japan Maritime SafetyAgency, 2002

Example of the oil spill simulation system operations: Tanker AIGE oil spill simulation and forecast

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/jcope/vwp/

Presentations by students

• University of Limpopo (2)• University of Venda (4)• Watersisulu University (8)• University of Johannesburg (3)• University of Zululand (7)

An analysis of rainfall patterns in uMtata,  Johannesburg and Oudtshoorn over the past 

30 years.

University of Johannesburg

By: A.Quta

Supervisor: Dr C. Kelso

31 August 2012

FIVE MAJOR SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION

ASSESSING THE PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF TOURISM ON THE 

ENVIRONMENT: THE CASE OF PORT ST JOHNS, EASTERN CAPE, SOUTH 

AFRICA

BY MANGEMBE ZAMILE

Bulolo holiday resort 11-06 2012

Silaka game reserve11-06 2012

By: Whitney Gabriel (200909405)Supervisor: Mrs. Block

University of Johannesburg: Department of Geography, Environmental

Management and Energy Studies.

An investigation of South Africa’s current trends in Green Architecture:

What and Where?