leon cooperman invest for kids chicago
TRANSCRIPT
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Omega Advisors, Inc.
PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIM ITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOTBEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A POOL OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES
TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING ORANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL.
Investment Manager:
Omega Advisors, Inc.Wall Street Plaza
88 Pine Street, 31st Floor
New York, NY 10005
(212) 495-5200
Presentation by
Omega Advisor s, Inc.
Invest For Kid s
Leon G. Cooperman
Chairman and CEO
Omega Advisors, Inc.
November 9, 2011
Click here for full notes from the Invest For Kids Conference featuring investment ideas from
Lasry, Perry, Rosenstein, Zell & more
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 111
Exhibit 1
S&P 500 Stock and Sector Correlation
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
D
e c
- 8 9
D
e c
- 9 0
D
e c
- 9 1
D
e c
- 9 2
D
e c
- 9 3
D
e c
- 9 4
D
e c
- 9 5
D
e c
- 9 6
D
e c
- 9 7
D
e c
- 9 8
D
e c
- 9 9
D
e c
- 0 0
D
e c
- 0 1
D
e c
- 0 2
D
e c
- 0 3
D
e c
- 0 4
D
e c
- 0 5
D
e c
- 0 6
D
e c
- 0 7
D
e c
- 0 8
D
e c
- 0 9
D
e c
- 1 0
D
e c
- 1 1
D
e c
- 1 2
A v e r a g e
C o r r e l a t i o n
Average stock correlation
Average sector correlation 0.92
0.74
Data as of October 6, 2011
Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research and Omega Advisors, Inc.
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 2
Exhibit 2
2010 2011E 2012E
Real GDP (qoq % saar) 3.4 1.9 2.2
Real Consumer S pending (qoq % saar) 3.0 1.7 2.0Real Bus ines s Equipment & Software (qoq % saar) 16.6 8.0 7.5
Core PCE Inflation (qoq % saar) 1.0 1.8 1.5
Unemployment Rate (avg %) 9.6 (a) 9.0 (a) 9.0 (a)
Federal Funds Target (%) 0.25 (a) 0.25 (a) 0.25 (a)
S&P 50 0 Operating Earnings (yoy %) 36.6 13.5 5.0
S&P 50 0 Operating EPS ($) 85.5 97.0 102.0
(a) Year-end actual/forecastssource: BEA, Bloomberg, M acroeconomic Advisors, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Q4 to Q4
U. S. Economic Environment
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 3
Exhibit 3
100806040200989694929088868482
14
13
12
11
10
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Saving - Monthly Data from 12/80 to 8/11, Debt - Quarterly Data to 11:q2
Source: Federal Reserve Board, BEA, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Household Debt Service Ratio and Saving Rate
1110090807060504030201009998
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Quarterly Data from 97:q4 to 11:q2
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Household Liquid Assets % Liabilities
11100908070605040302010099989796959493929190
4020
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
4020
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Quarterly Data from 90:q3 to 11:q3
Source: FRB Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Bank Lending Standards Easing
C&I
Consumer
Debt Service Payments as a % of Disposable Personal Income (left scale) Personal Saving Rate (right scale)
Households Liquid Assets as a % of Household Liabilities
Net % of Banks Easing Standards for C&I Loans, avg of Small, Medium & Large Bus.Net Percent of Banks Indicate More Willing to Make Consumer Loans
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 4
Exhibit 4 Why We are Not Likely to Experience Another 2008 Type Decline?
1. Banking system has gone from insolvency to strong capital ratios.
2. No weak/opaque shadow banking system to contend with.
3. The financial condition of Corporate America is excellent.
4. Profit and revenue growth are still good as is growth in dividends and share buybacks.
5. Business inventories are in excellent shape. There is no bubble in housing as in 2008 and
most cyclical sectors of the economy are at a very low percentage of GDP.
6. Household debt/GDP, while still high, has dropped from 95.4% to 85.1%. Debt service
ratio substantially improved.
7. The consumer savings rate has gone from 1% to 5.0%.
8. Lower dollar should be a plus for exports.
9. Oil price decline from $115 to $91 WTI ($130 to $111 Brent) per barrel positive for
consumers and economy generally.
10. FED policy of zero interest rates will ultimately work.
11. Tame wages and decent productivity.
12. Decent M&A activity and large pool of private equity capital.
13. Investors are conservatively postured.
14. Market valuation very appealing – both absolute and particularly relative to alternatives
(financial repression).
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 6
Exhibit 6
Euro Zone Will Be Okay ?
We have been very disappointed in the tardiness and substance of policies offered by the euro-
zone governments and the ECB to address the European sovereign-debt issue. This tardinessand lack of substance has taken its toll on risk assets. Nonetheless, we do believe that
governments and the central bank in Europe, for now, will address the sovereign-debt issue.
•EFSF permitted to buy weak peripheral debt in the primary and secondary markets
• EFSF permitted to extend loans to shore up bank balance sheets
• EFSF/IMF likely to fund Greece through mid-2014
• ECB purchasing Italian and Spanish debt
• ECB providing unlimited liquidity to banks
• ECB moderating its tight money policy
•ECB purchasing covered bonds from banks, aiding bank funding
• Asian governments likely to support euro-zone sovereign debt• EFSF lending capacity lifted to !440 billion and likely to increase further
•Euro-zone bank re-capitalizations coming
•Increased dollar swap funding available to euro-zone banks
Note: EFSF – European Financial Stability Fund
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 7
Exhibit 7
201120102009200820072006
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Daily Data from January 2006 to 10/24/11
Source: Bloomberg and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Crude Oil Price
Crude Oil Price ion US $ - WTI Crude Oil Price in US $ - Brent
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 8
Exhibit 8
Length of
% Change Peak to P/E Contraction
Peak to Trough Peak to
Date S&P 500 Date S&P 500 Trough (months) Trough
Jun 1948 17.06 Jun 1949 13.55 (20.6)% 12 (38.4)%
Dec 1952 26.59 Aug 1953 22.71 (14.6) 8 (18.3)
Jul 1956 49.74 Dec 1957 39.42 (20.7) 17 (15.3)
Jul 1959 60.62 Oct 1960 52.30 (13.7) 15 (10.3)
Dec 1961 72.64 Jun 1962 52.32 (28.0) 6 (33.8)Jan 1966 94.06 Sep 1966 73.20 (22.2) 8 (26.7)
Nov 1968 108.37 Jun 1970 72.72 (32.9) 19 (31.2)
Dec 1972 119.12 Sep 1974 62.28 (47.7) 21 (63.2)
Dec 1976 107.46 Mar 1978 86.90 (19.1) 15 (26.6)
Nov 1980 140.52 Aug 1982 102.42 (27.1) 21 (24.7)
Aug 1987 336.77 Dec 1987 223.92 (33.5) 4 (41.2)
Jul 1990 368.95 Oct 1990 295.46 (19.9) 3 (20.1)
Jul 1998 1186.75 Aug 1998 957.28 (19.3) 1 (19.3)
Mar 2000 1527.46 Oct 2002 776.77 (49.1) 31 (14.9)Oct 2007 1565.15 Mar 2009 676.53 (56.8) 17 (48.3)*
Average (28.3)% 13.2 (28.8)%
Apr 2011 1363.61 Current(a) 1099.23 (19.4) (21.8)
xc u ng nanc a sector wr te- owns
(a) As of October 3, 2011
Source: Standard & Poor's, UBS Investment Research, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Peak Trough
Historical Bear Market Cycles
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 9
Exhibit 9
Date of Date of Rece ss ion
Economic Economic Duration
Peak Trough (month) Date Months After Recession Started Date Months After Recession End
Nov 1948 Oct 1949 11 May 1949 6 Nov 1949 1 -3.3
Jul 1953 May 1954 10 Aug 1953 1 Nov 1953 -6 -1.6
Aug 1957 Apr 1958 8 Aug 1957 0 Aug 1958 4 -17.0
Apr 1960 Feb 1961 10 Aug 1959 -8 May 1961 3 -11.7
Dec 1969 Nov 1970 11 Aug 1969 -4 Nov 1970 0 -12.9
Nov 1973 Mar 1975 16 Aug 1974 9 Aug 1975 5 -14.8
Jan 1980 Jul 1980 6 Feb 1980 1 Aug 1980 1 -4.3
Jul 1981 Nov 1982 16 Nov 1981 4 Feb 1983 3 -19.1
Jul 1990 Mar 1991 8 May 1989 -14 Nov 1991 8 -14.9
Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 Aug 2000 5 Feb 2002 3 -22.2
Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 May 2007 -7 Aug 2009 2 -44.5
Average (months) 11 -1 2 -15.1
Source: NBER, Standard & P oor's, and Om ega Advisors, Inc.
The Economic and Profit Cycles
Peak to Trough
S&P 500 Profit Peak S&P 500 Profit Trough % Change in Profit
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 10
Exhibit 10
Date of Date of Expansion Date of Market Peak Economic Economic Duration S&P 500 Prior to Eco Peak
Trough Peak (month) Peak (month)Oct 1949 Jul 1953 45 Dec 1952 7May 1954 Aug 1957 39 Jul 1956 13Apr 1958 Apr 1960 24 Jul 1959 9Feb 1961 Dec 1969 104 Nov 1968 13
Nov 1970 Nov 1973 35 Dec 1972 11Mar 1975 Jan 1980 57 Feb 1980 -1Jul 1980 Jul 1981 11 Nov 1980 8Nov 1982 Jul 1990 91 Jul 1990 0Mar 1991 Mar 2001 120 Mar 2000 12 Nov 2001 Dec 2007 73 Oct 2007 2
Average (months) 60 7.4Average ('49-'81) 45 8.6
Jun 2009 ? ?Source: NBER, Standard and Poor's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Market Peaks versus Economic Peaks
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 11
Exhibit 11
100806040200989694929088868482807876747270
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Quarterly Data from 69:q4 to 11:q2
% %
Source: CBO, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
U.S. GDP Gap
100806040200989694929088868482807876747270
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Quarterly Data from 69:q4 to 11:q3
Percentage Points Percentage Points
Source: CBO, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
U.S. Unemployment Rate Gap
(Nominal GDP - CBO Potential GDP) as a % of Potential GDP
CBO NAIRU (Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) less the Unemployment Rate
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 12
Exhibit 12
In this same period 10
year U.S. Government
Bond, yielded an average
of 6.67%
CPI
(Y/Y% change) P/E Ratio
<1% 15.79x
1% to 3% 17.21
3% to 5% 15.595% to 7% 12.81
>7% 8.70
Average (1960 to 2009) 14.98x
S&P 500(b) 12.5x
(a) S&P 500 P/E on 12-mo nth forward operating earnings(b) As of Octo ber 24, 2011. 12-mon th fo rward operat ing earnings of $100 .0
Source: BLS, Standard & P oor 's, T hom son Financial, and Omega Advisors, In c.
S&P 500 P/E and Inflation(a)
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 13
Exhibit 13
>8.0%6.0 to 8.04.5 to 6.03.5 to 4.52.5 to 3.52.0 to 2.51.5 to 2.0< 1.5%
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
Core PCE, Y/Y %change
A v e r a g e P / E
Av er a g eP / E
S&P 500 Forward PE versus Core PCE Inflation
Greater than 86 to 84 to 63 to 42 to 31 to 20 to 1Less than 0
18
16
14
12
10
8
18
16
14
12
10
8
10-Year Treasury Yield less Core PCE Inflation, in percentage points
A v e r a g e P / E
Av er a g eP / E
S&P 500 Forward PE versus Real Rate
Greater than 12%10 to 129 to 108 to 97 to 86 to 75 to 6Less than 5%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
Moody's Long-term Industrial Bond Yield in %
A v e r a g e P / E
Av er a g eP / E
S&P 500 Forward PE versus Corporate Bond Yield
Source: Standard and Poor's, Thomson Reuters, FRB, BEA, Moody's, and Omega Advisors, Inc
Valuation: Attractive versus Core Inflation, Real Bond Rate, and Corporate Bond(Monthly Data from 1960 to 2009)
Current
Current
Current
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 14
Exhibit 14
1008060402009896949290888684828078767472
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Monthly Data from 1/71 to 10/24/11
Source: FRB, BLS, Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Blended Valuation - S&P 500 with Inv.-Grade Corp. Bond Yield
1008060402009896949290888684828078767472706866646260
20
15
10
5
0
-5
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Monthly Data from 1/60 to 10/24/11
Source:Standard and Poor's, Bloomberg, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Equity Risk Premium - S&P 500
Overvalued
Undervalued
Fair Value
+1 SD
-1 SD
50% Market Valuation to INDUSTRIAL Bond Yields, and 50% to Core Inflation
Earnings Yield on Trend Earnings for the S&P 500 - 10-year Tips Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 15
Exhibit 15
11100908070605040302010099989796959493929190
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Monthly Data from 1/90 to 10/24/11
Source: Standard & Poor's, FRB, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Equity Risk Premium (VIX Adjusted) - S&P 500
Average
+1 SD
-1 SD
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield less VIX Adjusted 10-year Treasury Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 16
Exhibit 16
Date of Date of Rece ss ion
Eco no mic Econo mic Duratio n Lowe s t in the Re ce s sio n 1 0-Ye ar LT C orp.
Pe ak Tro ug h (mo nth) D ate P/E T re as ury Yld B ond Yie ld Tre as ury C orp. B ond Y/Y % ch in C ore C PI
Apr 1960 Feb 1961 10 Apr 1960 16.04 4.28 4.61 1.96 1.63 4.24
Dec 1969 Nov 1970 11 Jun 1970 13.17 7.84 8.55 -0.25 -0.96 1.06
Nov 1973 Mar 1975 16 Sep 1974 6.97 8.04 9.44 6.30 4.90 4.12
Jan 1980 Jul 1980 6 Mar 1980 6.68 12.75 13.11 2.23 1.86 2.37
Jul 1981 Nov 1982 16 Feb 1982 7.36 14.43 15.53 -0.85 -1.95 4.38
Jul 1990 Mar 1991 8 Oct 1990 12.15 8.72 10.10 -0.49 -1.87 2.87
Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 Mar 2001 21.30 4.89 7.23 -0.19 -2.54 2.08
Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 Feb 2009 12.15 2.87 6.56 5.36 1.67 6.44
Average 12 12.0 8.0 9.4 1.76 0.34 3.45
Current (10/24/11) 13.2 2.23 4.66 5.33 2.90 5.59
P/E and earnings y ield are based on monthend S&P 500 p rice and 4-quarter trailing operating EPS. Treasuruy and corp. bond are average monthly yield.
Source: NBER, Standard & Poor's, Thomson/Reuters, FRB, Moody's, BLS, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
At historical average of e arnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 50 0 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $63.
At 2009 earnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 500 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $79. In recession, earnings decline, on average, 15% ; S&P 500 current discounting an earnings decline of 18% -35% in 2012.
S&P 500 P/E at Its
Bear Market Valuation
Earnings Yield less
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 17
Exhibit 17
S&P 500 Index 1254.19 676.53
PE (4Q trailing operating EPS) 13.2 X 12.4 X
Dividend Yield 2.0 % 4.0 %
10-Year T. Bond Yield 2.23 2.89
Long-term Corp. Bond Yield 4.66 6.74
High-yield Bond Yield 8.04 19.35
Earnings Yield - T. Bond Yield 5.33 p.p. 5.15 p.p.
Earnings Yield - Corp. Bond Yield 2.90 1.30
S&P 500 EPS (4Q trailing) 94.80 54.37
S&P 500 DPS 25.18 27.25
Source: Standard and Poor's, FRB, Bloomberg, Moody's, Thomson Reuters, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
10/24/2011 3/9/2009
Current versus March 2009
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 18
Exhibit 18
1008060402009896949290888684828078767472706866646260585654
20001503
1005
508
10
20001503
1005
508
10
S&P 500 - Monthly Data from 7/53 to 9/11
Source: Standard and Poor's and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500
10050095908580757065605550454035
20
15
10
5
0
-5
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Annual Data from 1936 to 9/30/11
Source: Standard and Poor's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500 10-Year Return
S&P 500, shaded areas were recessions S&P 500 Long-term Trend
S&P 500 10-year Rolling Annualized Total Return (%)
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 19
Exhibit 19
1110090807060504030201009998979695
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Annual Data from 1995 to 9/30/2011
Source: Standard and Poor's, UBS, Moody's, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Free Cash Flow Yield over Corporate Bond Yield
S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Yield - Moody's Investment-Grade Corp. Bond Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 20
Exhibit 20
12100806040200989694929088868482807876747270
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Monthly Data from 12/84 to 10/24/11
Source: Standard and Poor's, Thomson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500 PE Ratio
12100806040200989694929088868482807876747270
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Monthly Data from 1970 to 10/24/11
Source: FRB, Standard & Poor's, Thomson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Stock - Bond Spread
Average '70 to '09 #10/24 PE on $85
Avg 70 to 09
#
10/24/30 on EPS $85
S&P 500 P/E on 12-month Forward Operating EPS
S&P 500 Earnings Yield (12M forward operating EPS) less 10-Year Gov't Bond Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 21
Exhibit 21
SPX 500 P/E
11/08 = 900/65 = 13.9x
2/09 = 800/62 = 12.9x
Current = 1254/97.0 = 12.9x
1254/102.0 = 12.3x
201120102009200820072006
30
25
20
15
10
5
30
25
20
15
10
5
Weekly Data from Sept. 2005 to 10/24/11
Source: FINRA-Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Average Yield of High Yield Corporate Bonds
11/21/[email protected]%
3/9/09 @19.3%
@8.04%
The Avg. Yield Weighted by Par, all Bonds in FINRA-Bloomberg US Corp. Bond Index (NBBHYL)
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 22
Exhibit 22
2011 (a) 37.6
2010 14.7 1995 4.5
2009 11.4 1994 2.3
2008 45.5 1993 5.0
2007 6.6 1992 0.9
2006 1.7 1991 1.0
2005 4.8 1990 4.02004 5.5 1989 2.0
2003 5.6 1988 3.4
2002 10.1 1987 3.2
2001 3.6 1986 5.4
2000 3.1 1985 3.0
1999 4.7 1984 1.9
1998 3.8 1983 3.5
1997 2.2 1982 7.7
1996 3.6 1981 2.4
(a) As of October 24, 2011
Source: Standard and Poo r's, Factset, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
% of Companies
Dividend Yield Higher Than 10-Yr T-Note Yield
% of Companies
S&P 500 Co mpanies Excluding Financials
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 23
Exhibit 23
10070401989592898683807774716865625956535047444138
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dividend Yield - Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11, Treasury - Monthly Data from 1953 to 9/11
Source: Standard and Poor's, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield
S&P 500 Dividend Yield 10-Year Treasury Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 24
Exhibit 24
10070401989592898683807774716865625956535047444138
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11
Source: Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Yield
10070401989592898683807774716865625956535047444138
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11
Source: Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Yield
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 25
Exhibit 25
10-year Treasury yield approximates year-over-year %change of nominal GDP growth
10080604020098969492908886848280
20
15
10
5
0
-5
20
15
10
5
0
-5
GDP - Quarterly Data from 79:q4 to 11:q2, Yield - Monthly Data to 9/11
Source: BEA, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Nominal GDP Growth and 10-Year G. Bond Yield
Nominal GDP Growth, year-over-year %change
10-year Gov't Bond Yield
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 26
Exhibit 26
12100806040200989694929088868482
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Daily Data from 1982 to 10/17/11
Source: Credit Suisse Fixed Income Research, Thomson Reuters Datastream, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Global Risk Appetite
Euphoria
Panic
8/16/'82-5.37
10/9/'02-5.76
11/20/'08-5.54 10/4/'11
-6.61
Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index, incl. Equity and Credit
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 2727
Risks to Our Equity Market Outlook
The opportunity for a self-sustaining economic expansion is threatened by weak employment
growth and/or the feedback to the economy from lower equity prices/euro-zone sovereign-debt
issues. The result is the possibility of recession
The core euro-zone governments, IMF, and ECB fail to contain the sovereign-debt issue and
instigate further sustained contagion to Italy and Spain, in turn causing a global recession and
weaker than expected corporate profits
A dent to global growth if there is a hard landing in China’s economy
Home prices enter another phase of accelerating decline, denting consumer confidence and
spending
Middle East turmoil intensifies and energy prices spike, constraining real income and spending
Budget deficit issues in the U. S. and the unwillingness of Washington to fully address the deficit
constrain U.S. growth
The uncertain effects in the U.S. surrounding consumer and financial-sector deleveraging and the
collision of this deleveraging with public-sector balance-sheet leveraging
The uncertain economic and capital-market effects of heightened global regulation on financial
markets
A continuing significant reliance of the U.S. on foreign capital, particularly Chinese capital at a
time when there are differences in currency policy between the U.S. and China
Capital controls imposed by emerging economies to stem the rise in their currencies and protect
against asset bubbles
A still not friendly Administration re the corporate sector
Exhibit 27
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 28
Exhibit 28Presidential Platform
1. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Provide every returning soldier with a free four
year college education or trade school of their choice.
2. Set up a peace time WPA effort to channel a portion of the saving into rebuilding
US infrastructure.
3. Unleash the domestic energy industry to develop domestic energy supplies and
reserves. This will create employment and reduce our dependency on foreign
suppliers.
4. Government spending should be limited to a growth rate at least 1% below thelevel of nominal GDP growth.
5. Freeze entitlements and raise the social security retirement age to 70 with an
exception of those that work at hard labor.
6. 10% income tax surcharge for three years on those that earn over $500,000 per
year.
7. 5% VAT tax to get at the underground economy and deal with the deficit.
8. Tackle health care in a serious way.
9. Reinstate the “Up-Tick” rule for short sales, ban or curtail High Frequency
trading and limit CDS trading to those that own the underlying bonds. The high
frequency traders are turning the best capital market in the world into a casino
and scaring the public. This is not in the public interest.
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 29
Exhibit 29
The Investment Environment
Economic Outlook: Slow growth owing to economy wide deleveraging.
Tame inflation owing to substantial output and labor excess capacity.
Sub-par employment growth owing to regulation/slow growth in final demand.
Slow profit growth owing to elevated profit margins and slow nominal GDP growth.
Economic expansions average in duration and below average in magnitude.
Changing composition of GDP with consumption declining as a percentage of output andcapital spending, residential investment, and exports increasing as a share of output.
1960-2007 Next DecadeReal GDP 3.3% 2%-2.5%GDP Price Deflator 3.7 2-2.5 Nominal GDP 7.2 4.0-5.0Profits 8.2 4-5
Dividend and Buyback Yield 3.4 3-4Total ReturnS&P 500 10.4% 7% - 9%*10 Year T-Bond Negative
*constant P/E
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 30
Exhibit 30
11090705030199979593918987858381797775737169676563
14
12
10
8
6
4
14
12
10
8
6
4
Quarterly Data from 62:q4 to 11:q2
Source: BEA, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Profit Margin
Average
Pretax Corporate Profits as a % of Nominal GDP
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 31
Exhibit 31
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 32
E xhibit 32
Omega Advisors 7 Long Ideas
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Click here for full notes from the conference, featuring investment ideas from Lasry,
Perry, Rosenstein, Zell & more
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Omega Advisors, Inc. 33
NOTES TO INVESTMENT RESULTS
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of offer to buy
any security.
This material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad- ased economic, market or political conditions and should not be
construed as investment advice. This information may not be current and Omega has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. We have relied upon
and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information from third party sources.
Any reference to a specific company does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities of such company.
Opinions and views expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. They involve a number of
assumptions that may not prove to be valid so that actual results could differ significantly.
If any of the assumptions used in the example in this presentation do not prove true, results may vary significantly from the examples shown. These examples
are for illustrative purposes only and do not purport to show actual results.
Alternative Investment such as hedge funds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds, may make
speculative investments, may be illiquid and can involve a significant use of leverage, making them substantially visible than other investments.
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