Lesotho National COVID-19 situation and Mitigation

Measures

The Right Honourable the Prime Minister, Dr MoeketsiMajoro’s National Address

1st January 2021

Movements in COVID-19 outbreak in the population

D

I = 3,206

R= 1,496

Popn ≈ 2,007,201

D = 65

112

S = 2,003,995

16Susceptible population after 3,206 infectionsand 1,496 recoveries

Lesotho Population

Cumulative Infections

Cumulative Recoveries

Cumulative Deaths

236

New Infections (47.5%)

New Tests: 01 January 2021 Cumulative Cases: 01 January 2021

Tests + cases

33,345 3,206

Recoveries

1,496

Deaths

65

Cumulative positive rate

(9.6%)

Recovery rate

(46.7%)

CFR(2.03%)

New Recoveries(0.5%)

New Deaths(14)

Weekly new cases (N=2869 confirmed cases)Based on the available data

1 1 0 2 0 8 14 65 93175

87256

40161 112 70 92 150 97 141 117 102 108 30 10 61 36 36 68 25 97 128

454

110

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

350010

-16.

05.2

02

0

17-2

3.05

.20

20

24-3

0.05

.20

20

31-0

6.06

.20

20

07-1

3.06

.20

20

14-2

0.06

.20

20

21-2

7.06

.20

20

28-0

4.07

.20

20

05-1

1.07

.20

20

12-1

8.07

.20

20

19-2

5.07

.20

20

26-0

1.08

.20

20

02-0

8.08

.20

20

09-1

5.08

.20

20

16-2

2.08

.20

20

23-2

9.08

.20

20

30-0

5.09

.20

20

06-1

2.09

.20

20

13-1

9.09

.20

20

20-2

6.09

.20

20

27-0

3.10

.20

20

04-1

0.10

.20

20

11-1

7.10

.20

20

18-2

4.10

.20

20

25-3

1.10

.20

20

01-0

7.11

.20

20

08-1

4.11

.20

20

15-2

1.11

.20

20

22-2

8.11

.20

20

29-0

5.12

.20

20

06-1

2.12

.20

20

13-1

9.12

.20

20

20-2

6.12

.20

20

27-0

2.01

.20

21

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Nu

mb

er o

f ca

ses

Epidemiologic week

Confirmed cases

Cumilative cases

Weekly mean cases (N=2858 confirmed cases)Based on the available data

0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,0 1,1 2,0

9,3

15,0

25,0

12,4

36,6

5,7

23,0

16,0

10,013,1

21,4

13,9

20,116,7

14,6 15,4

4,31,4

8,75,1 5,1

9,7

3,6

13,1 12,9

64,9

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

10-1

6.05

.202

0

17-2

3.05

.202

0

24-3

0.05

.202

0

31-0

6.06

.202

0

07-1

3.06

.202

0

14-2

0.06

.202

0

21-2

7.06

.202

0

28-0

4.07

.202

0

05-1

1.07

.202

0

12-1

8.07

.202

0

19-2

5.07

.202

0

26-0

1.08

.202

0

02-0

8.08

.202

0

09-1

5.08

.202

0

16-2

2.08

.202

0

23-2

9.08

.202

0

30-0

5.09

.202

0

06-1

2.09

.202

0

13-1

9.09

.202

0

20-2

6.09

.202

0

27-0

3.10

.202

0

04-1

0.10

.202

0

11-1

7.10

.202

0

18-2

4.10

.202

0

25-3

1.10

.202

0

01-0

7.11

.202

0

08-1

4.11

.202

0

15-2

1.11

.202

0

22-2

8.11

.202

0

29-0

5.12

.202

0

06-1

2.12

.202

0

13-1

9.12

.202

0

20-2

6.12

.202

0

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

Mea

n c

ase

per

wee

k

Epidemiologic week

Lesotho Epidemiological Update | Weekly Positivity

21%

6% 5%3%

14%17%

7%

25%

18%

7% 6%8%

4% 3%

8%

3%6% 5%

9%

17%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

End

8 A

ug

End

14

Au

g

End

22

Au

g

End

29

Au

g

End

5 Sep

End

12

Sep

End

19

Sep

End

26

Sep

End

03

Oct

End

10

Oct

End

17

Oct

End

24

Oct

End

31

Oct

End

07

No

v

End

14

No

v

End

21

No

v

End

28

No

v

End

5 D

ec

End

12

Dec

End

19

Dec

End

26

Dec

Posi

tivt

y (%

)

Weeks

PositivityCountry Moves to Purple on the 24th

August 2020Country Moves to Blue on the 22nd

November 2020

Lesotho Epidemiological Update | Deaths per week

5

3

4

10

2

5

0

1

2

0

2

4

3

0

1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0

4

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

12

July - 1

8 Ju

ly

19

July - 2

5 Ju

ly

26

July - 1

Au

g

2 A

ug - 8

Au

g

9 A

ug - 1

4 A

ug

15

Au

g - 22

Au

g

23

Au

g - 29

Au

g

30

Au

g - 5 Se

p

6 Se

p - 1

2 Se

p

13

Sep - 1

9 Sep

20

Sep - 2

6 Sep

27

Sep - 0

3 O

ct

04

Oct - 1

0 O

ct

11

Oct - 1

7 O

ct

18

Oct - 2

4 O

ct

25

Oct - 3

1 O

ct

1 N

ov - 7

No

v

8 N

ov - 1

4 N

ov

15

No

v - 21

No

v

22

No

v - 28

No

v

29

No

v - 05

De

c

06

Dec - 1

2 D

ec

13

No

v - 19

De

c

20

Dec - 2

6 D

ec

NU

mb

er o

f d

eath

s p

er w

eek

Epidemiological Week (Sunday - Saturday)

Total Number of Deaths Per Week

New data on deaths

District Confirmed

Maseru 4

Mafeteng 3

Mokhotlong 4 (probable)

Berea 3

TOTAL 14

Distribution of cases per districts (N=2895 confirmed cases)Based on the available data

Distribution of cases per Age group (N=2895 confirmed cases)Based on the available data

37 29

103

174

301

404

450

396

299

198

144

108

6548 53

86

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 5 6 10 11 15 16 20 21 25 26 30 31 35 36 40 41 45 46 50 51 55 56 60 61 65 66 70 >70 Unknown

Nu

mb

er o

f ca

ses

Age cat

Weekly Change: Cases by Age group

Weekly new cases among travellers (N=1088 confirmed cases)Based on the available data

2 0 030 20

7132 33 47 30 49

82 93 74 480 0 0 1 1 3 2 23

61

337

49

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

05-1

1.0

7.2

020

12-1

8.0

7.2

020

19-2

5.0

7.2

020

26-0

1.0

8.2

020

02-0

8.0

8.2

020

09-1

5.0

8.2

020

16-2

2.0

8.2

020

23-2

9.0

8.2

020

30-0

5.0

9.2

020

06-1

2.0

9.2

020

13-1

9.0

9.2

020

20-2

6.0

9.2

020

27-0

3.1

0.2

020

04-1

0.1

0.2

020

11-1

7.1

0.2

020

18-2

4.1

0.2

020

25-3

1.1

0.2

020

01-0

7.1

1.2

020

08-1

4.1

1.2

020

15-2

1.1

1.2

020

22-2

8.1

1.2

020

29-0

5.1

2.2

020

06-1

2.1

2.2

020

13-1

9.1

2.2

020

20-2

6.1

2.2

020

27-0

2.0

1.2

021

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Nu

mb

er

of

sam

ple

s te

ste

d

Epidemiologic week

Confirmed

Cumulative

Monthly Attack rates (based on the notifications)

0,11,3

28,6

24,9

28,1

15,3

9,2

46,4

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

May June July August September October November December

Nu

mb

er

of

case

s p

er

10

0,0

00

po

pu

lati

on

Month

Key findings *•The positivity rate of samples has been increasing and remained

higher than 5% in the last three weeks (from 9% on the week ending 12 Dec to 17% on the week ending 19 Dec to 12% on the week ending 26 Dec)

•The number of cases/100,000 population in December monthly attack rate show that the risk of getting COVID-19 has increased to 46.4% compared to November and October with 9.2% and 15.3%, respectively

•Experiencing more than 2 confirmed deaths weekly for the last two weeks after consecutive seven weeks of 0 deaths

* Based on the WHO public health criteria to adjust public health and social measures in the context of COVID 19: Annex to Considerations in adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, 12 May 2020

Key findings *•Number of infections among the young people has rapidly increased

ranging from 12% for age group 21-25 to 14% on age group 16-20, and 33% on age group 11-15.

•Number of positive cases from the in-bound travelers increased drastically in the past four weeks (from 2 to 337)

•R0 is not being calculated as epidemiologically is no longer suitable to inform the trend of the pandemic, rather the positivity rate is the key determinant of the trend and level of risk and threat of the pandemic

* Based on the WHO public health criteria to adjust public health and social measures in the context of COVID 19: Annex to Considerations in adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, 12 May 2020

Key findings *

•The rapid increasing transmission of the virus and positivity in the country is attributed to: Declined compliance to Covid-19 health prevention protocols especially

adherence to wearing of masks and physical distancing at social and economic activities and gatherings in particular entertainment events, bars, schools, work-place and public transport

Clusters of infections at schools, among the inbound travelers and at work place posing risk of increasing transmission of infections in the communities during festive season

Weak enforcement of compliance to prevention protocols in all sectors of society

Recommendations• According to the epidemiological analysis, reinforcing the public health is

recommended to break the transmission cycle and contain the cluster of cases to limit wide spread transmission

• Security Cluster and Community Leaders must enforce compliance to Covid-19 health prevention protocols

• To implement stricter restrictions on the super-spreader movements and economic and social activities by moving the country from the current Blue to Purple colour coding stage of the Risk Determination Framework Mitigation measures in order to reduce the virus infection spread

• The restrictions in the Purple to be implemented for the 14 days starting from midnight of Sunday 03 January 2021

• Below are the Purple colour coding stage mitigation measures to implement and adhere to