lessons from the eurobarometer 2007 additional analysis from the belgian perspective sergio perelman...

Lessons from the Eurobarometer 2007

Additional analysis from the Belgian perspective

Sergio Perelman

CREPP, HEC-Ecole de Gestion, Université de Liège

Outline

• The Eurobarometer on UDW

• Puzzling results

• The limits of descriptive analysis

• Econometric treatment

• Lessons from the Eurobarometer

• A new survey in Belgium

The Eurobarometer on UDW

• A first international large scale attempt

• UDW dimensions retained

- Demand of services/products

- Supply: UDW as part of salary

Other undeclared activities

• Individual characteristics and perceptions

• An invaluable tool for research purposes

Puzzling results

NORDIC CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN EASTERN UDW

Yes Refusal Yes Refusal Yes Refusal Yes Refusal

DEMAND

Services and Products 20.8 1.1 10.2 2.4 10.1 10.1 11.0 8.3

SUPPLY

Part of salary 2.8 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.7 10.7 12.4 12.3

Other activities 10.7 1.1 4.3 2.2 2.8 4.5 5.5 4.5

NORDIC: DK, FI, SE

CONTINENTAL: AT, BE, DE, FR, LU, NL + UK + IE

SOUHTERN: CY, EL, ES, IT, MT, PT

EASTERN: BG, CZ, LV, LT, HU, EE, PL, RO, SI, SK

UDW and refusal rates

Puzzling results

Occupation UDW (2007)

EFT (2004)

Self-employed 5.4 6.2

Managers 1.9 3.0

Other white collars 28.1 25.8

Manual workers 11.2 12.1

House persons 7.5 7.7

Unemployed 7.9 6.9

Retired 27.6 26.8

Students 10.4 9.5

Other inactive - 1.8

ALL 100.0 100.0

Sample representativityBelgium: Population aged 15+

Puzzling results

NORDIC CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN EASTERN

Risk of being detected

Very high 2.4 7.7 7.1 6.1

Fairly high 18.2 25.7 28.6 23.8

Don’t know 2.8 9.1 14.3 13.1

Expected sanction

Normal tax/contribution 13.2 17.3 28.1 24.0

“ “ “ plus a fine 73.8 65.5 52.5 52.6

Prison 8.5 6.5 4.0 3.6

Don’t know 4.0 9.5 12.7 16.9

Perceptions and institutions

Puzzling results

NORDIC CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN EASTERN

Excellent 76.4 67.5 40.0 47.4

Fair 17.3 22.8 47.2 37.8

Average 5.7 7.9 10.3 12.6

Bad 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.3

Respondents’ cooperation

The limits of descriptive analysis

NORDIC CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN EASTERN Occupation


Self -employed 17.8 3.1 10.6 2.7 1.8 5.9 10.2 4.0

Managers 4.9 0.9 2.6 4.7 0.1 4.8 6.6 5.1

Other white collars 8.0 0.8 3.4 2.0 2.0 5.4 5.9 4.7

Manual workers 24.7 0.2 6.3 2.6 3.6 6.0 7.5 5.6

House persons 6.1 5.2 2.4 3.5 2.2 2.3 5.1 2.0

Unemployed 8.5 1.6 5.7 0.9 11.8 7.2 12.3 7.3

Retired 4.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 4.0 1.2 3.4

Students 22.1 1.2 12.6 1.7 5.6 1.9 4.9 4.8

% UDW Other activities

The limits of descriptive analysis

NORTHERN CONTINENTAL SOUTHERN EASTERN Activity Sectors


Construction 9.8 0.0 4.2 3.0 8.0 11.8 21.8 9.4

Industry 1.2 1.3 0.9 2.8 12.0 7.2 9.7 12.4

Household services 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 11.4 12.4 2.6 12.8

Transport 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 4.1 18.3 17.4 12.0

Personal services 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.8 3.4 4.4 17.7 9.0

Retail 6.6 1.6 3.8 4.9 4.9 12.7 13.2 12.7

Repair services 3.5 0.0 2.0 6.5 0.0 21.7 18.5 8.7

Hotel and restaurant 18.8 1.2 7.5 4.0 1.9 12.6 11.2 8.4

Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 16.6 19.9 12.4

Others 0.0 0.0 5.6 18.5 4.2 38.9 9.7 37.8

% UDW Part of salary

Econometric treatment

• Probit/Logit Models

• UDW participation (Demand/Supply)

• Explanatory variables

- age, sex, education, family size, origin

- occupation, economic sector

- urban/rural areas, house ownership

• Control variables

- country dummies

- perceptions, respondents’ cooperation

Econometric treatmentDemand

Serv/Prod UDW

Part of salary UDW

Other activities Variables

Khi2 (Pr> Khi2) Khi2 (Pr> Khi2) Khi2 (Pr> Khi2)

Explanatory variables

Respondent occupation (7) 30.1 *** 4.4 * 124.7 ***

Subjective urbanization (3) 6.0 * 0.5 n.s. 3.4 n.s.

Education (end of) (3) 46.9 *** 8.8 ** 7.8 n.s.

Age (4) 16.8 *** 30.0 *** 108.0 ***

Sex (2) 50.0 *** 24.2 *** 113.8 ***

Born (Country/Europe/Other) 2.7 n.s. 1.8 n.s. 1.3 n.s.

Activities (11) 17.1 * 100.3 *** 89.6 ***

House ownership (2) 17.6 *** 0.8 n.s. 7.2 **

Marital status (3) 3.4 n.s. 0.4 n.s. 15.9 ***

Household composition

Adults 15+ 0.8 n.s. 5.7 ** 0.5 n.s.

Children < 10 2.7 * 1.6 n.s. 2.1 n.s.

Children 10-14 0.0 n.s. 0.6 n.s. 0.7 n.s.

Control variables

Country (27) 475.0 *** 378.5 *** 534.7 ***

Respondent cooperation 36.7 *** 0.7 n.s. 0.5 n.s.

Risk of being detected (6) 375.6 *** 34.0 *** 223.7 ***

Expected sanction (5) 15.9 *** 11.1 ** 40.1 ***

***, **, *: 1%, 5% and 10% Khi2 Test significativity


Occupation Age Education

Self -employed + 15-24 +++ < 15 years old - - -

Managers +++ 25-39 +++ 15 – 19 years old - - -

Other white collars +++ 40-54 ++ 20 + years old Ref

Manual workers Ref. 55 + Ref.

House persons +

Unemployed ++ House ownership Sex

Retired = Yes +++ Men +++

Students = No Ref. Woman Ref.


Undeclared work: Demand of services or products


Age Activity Sector

15-24 +++ Construction +++

25-39 +++ Industry =

40-54 ++ Household services =

55 + Ref. Transport ++

Education Personal services ++

< 15 years old ++ Retail +++

15 – 19 years old ++ Repair services +++

20 + years old Ref Hotel/Restaurant +++

Sex Agriculture ++

Men +++ Others Ref.

Woman Ref. DK/Refusal =


Undeclared work: Part of salary



Undeclared work: Other activitiesOccupation Age Activity Sector

Self -employed + 15-24 +++ Construction +++

Managers - - - 25-39 +++ Industry =

Other white collars - - - 40-54 +++ Household services =

Manual workers Ref. 55 + Ref. Transport =

House persons = Marital status Personal services =

Unemployed = Married/Couple - - - Retail =

Retired - - - Single - - Repair services ++

Students = Other Ref. Hotel/Restaurant =

Sex House ownership Agriculture =

Men +++ Yes - - - Others Ref.

Woman Ref. No Ref. DK/Refusal =

Lessons from the Eurobarometer• Preliminary econometric results

- Allowing to identify several actors’ characteristics

- Demand and supply driven by country specificities

- Perceptions on national institutions mater

- Robust results• Drawbacks

- Too small country sample size

- Limited UDW cases to be analyzed

A new Survey on UDW in Belgium

• Sample design

- Depending on demand and supply specificities studied

- For instance, supply of UDW

• Over sampled characteristics

- Construction, repair services, transport, hotels/restaurants

- Men aged less than 55 years old

- Occupations other than employees

lessons from the eurobarometer 2007 additional analysis from the belgian perspective sergio perelman...

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