Let’s Talk Climate!

Nolan DoeskenColorado Climate CenterColorado State University

Yampatika SeminarFebruary 16, 2011

Steamboat Springs, Colorado

First -- A short background

• In 1973 the federal government abolished the “State Climatologist” program nationwide leaving Colorado without

• Later that same year, Colorado re-established the State Climate program with support through the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station at Colorado S

• tate University.

Our Mission• The Colorado Climate Center at CSU

provides valuable climate expertise to the residents of the state through its threefold program of:1) Climate Monitoring (data acquisition, analysis, and archiving), 2) Climate Research3) Climate Services.(providing data, analysis, climate education and outreach)

Monitoring our Climate• Elements: temperature, precipitation, snow, wind, solar,

evaporation, soil temperatures, humidity, clouds, etc.

Fort Collins CSU Historic Weather StationContinuous monitoring since the 1880s

Systematic weather data collection began in Colorado in the 1870s and 1880s

Denver November 19-25, 1871

Colorado Weather Stations in 1890

Slower start in NWColorado

What’s so Amazing about Colorado?

Four “Climate Controls”• High elevation (Colorado is the highest

state in the Union – by far) • Mid-Latitude location (lively seasonal

changes) • Interior Continental Location far from

atmospheric moisture sources • Complex Mountain topography

The Result?

Generous sunshine and low humidity, i.e. people like it here

Large Seasonal and diurnalTemperature Variations

Fruita, Colo.

Steamboat Springs, CO Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

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Steamboat Springs, CO Daily Tmax and Tmin for 2009

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Routt County – a cool place to live

http://www.thegardenhelper.com/hardiness.htm

Average Maximum TemperatureJANUARY

JULY

Frequent but highly variable precipitation

(for every “upslope,” there’s a “downslope”)

Photo by Wendy Ryan

Lots of Snow, sometimes and some places

National Annual Average Snowfall

Routt County is normally Colorado’s most consistently snowy region of the state –

considering the modest mountains and elevation

Most Surface Water Supplies in Colorado Come From Mountain

Snowmelt

Poudre River Discharge (cfs) at the Canyon Mouth for Water Year 2010

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How Does Colorado’s Precipitation Compare to other parts of the U.S.?

Show Nationa PRISM map of average annual precip

Show Colorado PRISM map of average annual precip

Precipitation in Colorado varies a greatly from place to place with changing seasons

Water Year Average Precipitation for Selected Stations

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Colorado Experiences Large Year-to-Year Variations in Precipitation

No two years are ever alike

Dry Lake Snotel WY 2010 and 2011

The timing and intensity of precipitation and associated temperatures help determine soil

moisture, plant growth, etc.

A year with 12 inches of total precipitation may be more favorable for plant growth than

a year with over 16 inches.

Drought – a regular visitor to ColoradoFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - May 2007)

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Recent U.S. Drought Status

How does the climate of Routt County and

Steamboat Springs compare to other areas?

Temperatures compared to other parts of western Colorado

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Temperatures compared to the Front Range cities of Colorado

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Temperatures compared to other parts of the United States

Mean Monthly Temperature

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Precipitation compared to other parts of western Colorado

Average Monthly Precipitation

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Precipitation compared to the Front Range and eastern Colorado

Average Monthly Precipitation

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So . . . . . Are we seeing any long term

changes here in Western Colorado?

For much of Colorado, upward trends in seasonal

temperatures are being observed and analyzed.

However, precipitation continues to vary greatly and

no discernable long-term trends have yet been detected

Confidently detecting climatic trends is much more challenging and

difficult than determining spatial patterns, seasonal

cycles, or year-to-year variations

Why is that?• Because climate is

already naturally variable

• Also, our observations cover only relatively short periods and our weather stations are imperfect

Still, our climate records are more complete, consistent, and widespread than nearly all

other forms of long-term environmental monitoring (i.e. we shouldn’t whine).

Grand Junction Seasonal Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

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Hayden Seasonal Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

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It may not look like much on these graphs, but there has

been an upward trend in temperatures over the past 50+

years over the western U.S.

**But Less warming since 2007 in our region**

Globally, this warming is apparent and unusual…

Figuring out what’s going on with precipitation and snowpack

is proving to be more challenging --- and that’s to be expected because precipitation

is SO variable to begin with

Colorado Precipitation in Historic Perspective

Most recent 12-month period (Sep 2009 – Aug 2010)

(Period of Record 1895-2010)

Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400') April 1 Snow Water Equivalent

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There is some evidence of earlier snowmelt, but it is less obvious here than in other parts of the West

Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400') May 1 Snow Water Equivalent

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So, what about this winter?

Two questions for you

1) How long has it been since we last had temperatures as cold as what we experienced early this month?

2) How long has it been since we’ve had this much snow on the ground in mid February?

Grand Lake 1NW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature

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Grand Lake 6SSW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature

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Craig and Craig 4SW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature (F)

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** Note: Hayden weather station moved from valley to bench in 1970s

Dry Lake SNOTEL WY 2010 and 2011

What about the future

Increases in greenhouse gases are real, large and continuing

Of course, there is uncertainty, but from the best available scientific

understanding, warming is likely to continue and

accelerate.

Projections: Temperature near Steamboat

Summers warm more than winters

Average summer temps similar to

hottest days in the past few years

Earlier spring

Model Projections

Observations

Range of projections

Historical range

Precipitation is harder to say

Most recent 12-month period (Sep 2009 – Aug 2010)

(Period of Record 1895-2010)

??

The future will unfold and we can observer it together

http://climatetrends.colostate.edu

This website is a resource that anyone can use to keep tabs on Colorado’s observed climate – its

variations and trends.

http://climatetrends.colostate.edu

And by the way, we could use your help

1) If you are interested in weather and the variations in precipitation, please jointhe Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network

http://www.cocorahs.orgor see me today

CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow) – A simple but effective way to help scientists track Colorado Climate

http://www.cocorahs.org

Rain! Hail!Snow!

Join Us! Visit the CoCoRaHS Web Site

Support for this project provided by NOAA Environmental Literacy Program and many local charter sponsors.

http://www.cocorahs.org

Our goal -- a rain gauge at every school in Colorado to help spread experience, knowledge and appreciation for where our water comes from -- help sponsor your favorite school(s) contact me

2) Help us Celebrate

“Water 2012”

Seeking:

•Sponsors to purchase gauges

•Mentors to assist/train teachers

•Teachers to participate with students

“A Rain Gauge at Every School”

Contact: Noah Newman: noah@cocorahs.orgOr Nolan Doesken nolan.doesken@colostate.edu

Colorado: It’s a great place but we have to be ready for anything

Photo by Lynn Kral, Loveland, January 2006

Colorado Climate CenterData and Power Point Presentations available for downloading

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu

Nolan.Doesken@Colostate.edu