level i level ii level iii level iv level v 5 day ave

MN Interagency Guide for Determining Preparedness Level

Level I Level II Level III Level IV Level V5 Day

Ave.

Statewide

BI (X) spring/pre-green 0 - 23 24 - 47 48 - 95 96 - 130 131 +

BUI after June 1 0 - 29 30 - 49 50 - 69 70 - 88 89 + 29

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 15 16 - 22 23 - 27 28 - 30 31 + 19

Arrowhead


BUI after June 1 0 - 12 13 - 24 25 - 49 50 - 68 69 + 17

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 14 15 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 28 29 + 16

East Central Hardwoods


BUI after June 1 0 - 39 40 - 59 60 - 79 80 - 100 101 + 27

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 16 17 - 23 24 - 28 29 - 31 32 + 19

North Central Woodlands


BUI after June 1 0 - 39 40 - 59 60 - 79 80 - 100 101 + 34

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 16 17 - 23 24 - 28 29 - 31 32 + 21

Northern Peatlands


BUI after June 1 0 - 24 25 - 54 55 - 69 70 - 85 86 + 30

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 16 17 - 23 24 - 28 29 - 31 32 + 20

Prairie Parklands


BUI after June 1 0 - 24 25 - 54 55 - 69 70 - 85 86 + 47

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 16 17 - 23 24 - 28 29 - 31 32 + 23

Southeast Hardwoods


BUI after June 1 0 - 39 40 - 59 60 - 79 80 - 100 101 + 33

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 16 17 - 23 24 - 29 30 - 32 33 + 19

Southwest Prairie


BUI after June 1 0 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70 - 85 86 + 37

ERC (Y) after June 1 0 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 30 31 - 33 34 + 22


Level I Level II Level III Level IV Level V

8-14 day Weather Forecast

Winter conditions, most of

State snow covered, temps

below freezing.

Normal conditions for

season, adequate precip.

expected

Less than normal

precip. and RH, higher

than normal temps

forecast

Dry weather patterns

persisting, no change

forecast

Dry pattern intensifying.

Unstable weather forecast

leading to extreme fire

behavior conditions.

Less than normal precip. and

RH, higher than normal temps

forecast

MN Regional Planning

LevelsAll Regions/Agencies at P.L. I

One or more

Regions/Agencies at

P.L. II

Two or more

Regions/Agencies at P.L.

III

Two or more

Regions/Agencies at

P.L. IV

Two or more

Regions/Agencies at P.L. V

One or more

Regions/Agenci

es at P.L. II

Eastern Area Planning

LevelI-II I-III I-IV I-V I-V II

National Planning Level I-III I-IV I-V I-V I-V IV

Fire Occurrence (Initial

Attack)

Rare, infrequent fire

occurrence

Fires reported in

scattered Areas.

Generally less than 10

fires/day Statewide.

Multiple Areas/Agencies

reporting fires. 10 to 20

fires/day Statewide

Multiple

Areas/Agencies

reporting fires. 20 to 30

fires/day Statewide

Multiple Areas/Agencies

reporting fires. 30+ fires/day

Statewide. Rare, infrequent fire occurrence

Fire Occurrence (Escaped

fires)None None

1-2 fires requiring

extended attack

Statewide (more than

mop-up)

3-5 fires requiring

extended attack

Statewide

5+ fires requiring extended

attack Statewide1-2 fires requiring extended attack Statewide (more than mop-

up)

Resource AvailabilityNormal complement of

personnel.No shortages expected.

Moderate demand for

some in-state resource

types expected

Shortage of certain in-

state resource types

Most in-state resources

committed. Out of State

assistance necessary.

No shortages

expected.

In-State Mobilization None

Less than 5% of

statewide resources

assigned out of home

unit.

Some short term

movement occurring , 5-

10% of statewide

resources assigned out of

home unit.

10-20% of statewide

resources assigned out

of home unit.

20%+ of statewide resources

assigned out of home unit. Less than 5% of statewide

resources assigned out of home

unit.

Apply A designator when resoures are out of state and/or E during a declared State of Emergency

Statewide or Regional events such as fishing opener or the Fourth of July; natural events such as floods or windstorms; other unexpected

or unusual events that may have large scale impacts should be considered. Sociopolitical

Considerations

Other Considerations or

Comments


Final Preparedness Level DeterminationLevel I Level II Level III Level IV Level V

Statewide II-A

Arrowhead III

East Central Hardwoods II

North Central

Woodlands II

Northern Peatlands II

Prairie Parklands III

Southeast Hardwoods II

Southwest Prairie II

Prepared By: Travis Verdegan Approved By: MNICS Taskforce

Date: Tuesday, September 28, 2021 Date: Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Narrative

Overview With the NW on a week plus dry stretch and the rest of the state in the beginning stages on one, preparedness index values show an upward trend. This trend started from near the bottom so a long pronounced dry period will be needed to bring indices into the middle to upper end, but you can’t get there without first being where we are now. Forecasted precip later this week is staying on the light side and favoring the south and west at this point. It this holds true along with the longer-term CPC outlooks we could see a good bit of buildup in the next couple weeks. So far fuels have stayed more summer like than fall like as leaves are hanging on the trees and surface level herbaceous fuels are holding a lot of green. We have not had a hard freeze yet and at this point we’re likely to see that milestone occur later than the median timing this year. The median timing for a hard freeze in MN is the last week of September or the first week of October. CPC outlooks for 6 – 10 and the 8 – 14 days are giving some strong signals for warmer than average temps and drier in the near term with closer to average signals in the longer term. Drought monitor data released last Thursday showed signs of improvement across the board as exceptional drought was removed from the state, Extreme dropped to 24%, Severe went to 50%, and Moderate went to 76%.

NFDRS For this week ERC values across the board came into the level 2 range with some of the FDRAs having been there last week and other just coming in this week. So far there are no signs of the BI – X model picking up on curing of live herbaceous fuels and GSI values remain high. This lines up well with observations as green lawns and cool season grasses are standing out to people.

CFFDRS BUI had mixed results this week with half the FDRAs staying in the low range, however each of the low FDRAs are poised to move in the next level up within a few days. Depending on what this weeks precip does, its likely we’ll see some noticeable changes by this time next week.

Statewide Figure 1 - Year to Date NFDRS 2016 Fuel Models

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NFDRS BI (X - Brush) Year to Date

BI (X) ERC (Y) Moving Average BI (X) Dateline

Preparedness Indices – Statewide

Figure 2 – Statewide - NFDRS 2016 Fuel Models

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NFDRS ERC (Y - Timber) Year to Date

BI (X) ERC (Y) Moving Average ERC (Y) Dateline

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Figure 3 - Statewide – BUI Average of all Station

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FFMC BUI Moving Average BUI Dateline

Weather Forecasts and Outlooks Figure 5 - Weekly Summary Forecast for Northwestern MN from NWS Grand Forks

Figure 6 - Weekly Summary Forecast for Northeastern MN from NWS Duluth

Figure 7 - Weekly Summary Forecast for Southern MN from NWS Chanhassen

Figure 8 – 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from 09/27/21

Figure 9 - CPC 6 - 10 Outlook

Figure 10 - CPC 8 - 14 Day Outlook

Drought Monitor Figure 11- US Drought Monitor

Arrowhead FDRA

Preparedness Indices - Arrowhead Figure 12 – Arrowhead – NFDRS 2016 Fuel Models

Figure 13 - Arrowhead CFFDRS

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East Central Hardwoods FDRA

Preparedness Indices Figure 14 - East Central Hardwoods – NFDRS 2016

Figure 15 - East Central Hardwoods - CFFDRS

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North Central Woodlands FDRA

Preparedness Indices Figure 16 - North Central Woodlands - NFDRS 2016

Figure 17 - North Central Woodlands – CFFDRS

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Northern Peatlands FDRA

Preparedness Indices Figure 18- Northern Peatlands - NFDRS 2016

Figure 19 - North Central Peatlands - CFFDRS

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Prairie Parklands FDRA

Preparedness Indices Figure 20 Prairie Parklands - NFDRS 20165

Figure 21 - Prairie Parklands - CFFDRS

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Southeast Hardwoods FDRA

Preparedness Documents Figure 22 - Southeast Hardwoods - NFDRS 2016

Figure 23 - Southeast Hardwoods - CFFDRS

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Southwest Prairie FDRA

Preparedness Indices Figure 24 - Southwest Prairie – NFDRS 2016

Figure 25 Southwest Prairie - CFFDRS

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