Leveraging Cognitive Bias in Social Design

Rationality be damned.

Joshua PorterPurveyor: bokardo.com

UX guy: chi.mp

d.Construct2008 author of

Which restaurant would you choose?

Q:

http://!ickr.com/photos/elgrandee/1819133411/

http://!ickr.com/photos/albedo/110329014/

Bandwagon E!ectthe observation that people often do and believe things because many other people do and believe the same things

HeuristicsWhen people are faced with a complicated judgment or decision, they often simplify the task by relying on heuristics, or general rules of thumb. In many cases, these shortcuts yield very close approximations to the “optimal” answer, that which results from purely rational thinking.

Gather all information necessaryfor rational judgmentUncertainty

Make decision

Heuristic(shortcut)

Cognitive BiasesIn certain situations, heuristics lead to predictable biases and inconsistencies.

Gather all information necessaryfor rational judgmentUncertainty

Make decision

Heuristic(shortcut)

Bias

Lake Wobegon e!ect the phenomenon that a supermajority of people report themselves as above average in desirable qualities

the tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failuresSelf-serving bias

the systematic tendency to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions

Optimism bias

the tendency to ignore that a product or solution already exists, because its source is seen as an "enemy" or as "inferior"

Not invented here

also known as the ‘I-knew-it-all-along e"ect’Hindsight bias

the tendency to underestimate the time and cost of workPrediction bias

A few design-related biases

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biasesFun reading:

Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)

Proposed theory: people do not make fully rational decisions, they use rules of thumb (heuristics) instead

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Please check o" the most likely alternative.

Linda is a bank teller.

Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

Bank Tellers FeministsFeministBank Tellers

~90% choose “feminist bank tellers”, although that cannot be the case.

Representation BiasAs the amount of detail in a scenario increases, its probability can only decrease steadily, but its representativeness and hence its apparent likelihood may increase.

Leveraging the representation bias(people will assume that these examples are representative of the group)

Leveraging the representation bias(people will assume that these examples are representative of the group)

50% chance of gaining

50% chance of losing

Would you accept this bet?

£100

£100

50% chance of gaining

50% chance of losing

Would you accept this bet?

£100

£200

50% chance of gaining

50% chance of losing

Would you accept this bet?

£100

£300

Loss AversionLosses loom larger than gains

Feature described in terms of gain:

Feature described in terms of loss:

josh.mp

Feature described in terms of future savings:

Would it be more e!ective framed as an immediate loss?(e.g. Don’t lose the ability to track your package)

What is more valuable to you?

a) A co"ee mug on sale at the local convenience store

b) The co"ee mug that your future husband/wife gave you during that amazing autumn morning last year when they proposed to you.

http://!ickr.com/photos/studiosmith/2559034807/

Ownership BiasPeople value things more when they feel a sense of ownership

The Sign-up Problem (the 9x e!ect)

Because of loss aversion and the ownership e"ect, people tend to overvalue

the software they currently use by about a

factor of 3.

Because of the ownership e"ect and the optimism

bias, software makers tend to overvalue what

they o"er by about a factor of 3.

3x 3x

9x

Eager Sellers, Stony Buyersby John T. Gourville

further readingHarvard Business Review, June 2006

Thank you.

Contact?

http://twitter.com/bokardoporter@bokardo.com