lewis peak oil and gas
TRANSCRIPT
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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DanLewis
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Breakdownoftalk! Peakoilthehistoryandrecord! Peakgaswhatshappenedandhappening! Alterna;veenergyausefulhedge?! Conclusions! Somepeakstokeeptabsonandafewpredic;ons
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Apeakinsupplyfollowedbyrapidirreversibledecline! Witheconomies,technologyandsocietyunabletokeeppace
! Becausewedontknowhowmuchoilwehaveandhavenoalterna;veinplace
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! ShellGeoscien;st,InventorofHubbertsPeak
! Ac;veinan;-democracyandan;-marketsTechnocracymovement
! Technocratssuchaswisescien;stsandengineers
shouldtakeover! Replacingpoli;ciansandeconomists
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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The title page
Hubberts original paper
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! LinearSta;s;cianscangetlucky!! Gottheyearexactlyright(sofar)! LeOoutAlaskaagoodmove! quan;tyofproduc;onanddiscoverywrong
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! 1970peakwas4.1bnbdv3.0! Source:TimGuinness
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Riseofunconven;onalsshaleoil,tarsands!In2010,s;ll3.5morethanHubbertpredicted! 11.1mbpdby2020:IEANov2012,Ci;Mar12
! MorethanSaudiArabia
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Predicted1995-2000
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! And1nowsomewhatpessimis;cpeakforecastfrom2008peakin2053
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Linearsta;s;calapproachgeologyonly! Priceandinnova;onblind! riginalquan;tyofoilremaininginplacewrong1.2trillionbarrelsv.atleastseveraltrillion! Evenifknowledgeofsupplywasperfect! Forecas;ngconsump;onimpossible
! Asconsump;ondeterminesproduc;onrate! Thereisnopeakininnova;on
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! IssuereallyaboutresourcesecrecyofmanyOPECstates! E.g.Simmons,TwilightintheDesert! Afairpointaboutastrategicrisk! Butthatsecrecyismatchedbymuchlower
levelsofexplora;on
!AndUSAandUKcantreallylectureotherna;onsonnotknowinghowbigtheirresourcesare
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Sowhysitsomuchmoreexpensive?! Havewepeakedincheapoil
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Discoveryoflargenewfieldsnotkeepingpacewithconsumpon! But86%ofoilreservesinUSwereresultof
revisionsandaddi;onsontopoforiginales;mateat;meofdiscovery
! Cantviewworldasonebigoilfield! Allusingthesametechnologyandgengthesameresults
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! In1970,camein1973! Sameerrorsquan;ty&demandwrongand
peaksincesuperceded! Alsolobbyingbycoalinterestsreducinggasdemand
! Andpreven;ngearlierdashtogas
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! BillionslostonLNGImportterminals
! Nowlookingtoexport
! PrimarilytoPacificBasin
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! AnnualConsump;on3.5tcf! BGS2010es;mated5.3tcfresource! 2011BowlandShale200tcfCuadrillaResources! 2012Bri;shGeologicalSurvey1500tcf?
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! DecouplingfromoilpricesundermineGazprometal
! ExtensiveresourceoutsideofPECincl.China! Coalandilsubs;tu;oninpowerandtransport! Majorimprovementinairqualityatangible
environmentalbenefit
! ReturnofManufacturing&PetrochemicalIndustriesHomecoming! Mythpuncturedofalwaysrisingpricesjus;fyingsupportforRenewables&Nuclear
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Sofocusoncheaperalterna;veenergytech.! Toomuchsubsidyfocusonmostcostly&
lowestimpactsolar,biomass,windcantaffordall
! Morebenefitfromlong-lifeplantinterconnectors,nuclear,hydro,gigawastoragetoarbitragenightanddayprices
!EUGovernmentscantdictatepowersupply! Shareholders,Bondmarket&Consumersdo! EuropeanU;li;esindirestraits
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Influen;alAcademicPeakilIndustry! $billionslostonstrandedUSLNGImportterminals
! $billionssquanderedonrenewablesbasedonassump;onsaboutfutureoil/gassupplies
! pportunitycost-prolongedPEC&higherprices
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7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas
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! Peakfueltaxrevenueroad-pricing! Peakpetrolsta;ons! Plateauratherthanpeak! Coalforgassubs;tu;on! Gasforoilsubs;tu;on! Methanefromhydrates! Globalconvergencedownwardsof
naturalgasprices! Con;nuedrelocalisa;onofoilprices! BlackSwantechnologies&soOware