lewis peak oil and gas

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  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

    1/21

    DanLewis

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Breakdownoftalk! Peakoilthehistoryandrecord! Peakgaswhatshappenedandhappening! Alterna;veenergyausefulhedge?! Conclusions! Somepeakstokeeptabsonandafewpredic;ons

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Apeakinsupplyfollowedbyrapidirreversibledecline! Witheconomies,technologyandsocietyunabletokeeppace

    ! Becausewedontknowhowmuchoilwehaveandhavenoalterna;veinplace

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! ShellGeoscien;st,InventorofHubbertsPeak

    ! Ac;veinan;-democracyandan;-marketsTechnocracymovement

    ! Technocratssuchaswisescien;stsandengineers

    shouldtakeover! Replacingpoli;ciansandeconomists

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    The title page

    Hubberts original paper

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! LinearSta;s;cianscangetlucky!! Gottheyearexactlyright(sofar)! LeOoutAlaskaagoodmove! quan;tyofproduc;onanddiscoverywrong

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! 1970peakwas4.1bnbdv3.0! Source:TimGuinness

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Riseofunconven;onalsshaleoil,tarsands!In2010,s;ll3.5morethanHubbertpredicted! 11.1mbpdby2020:IEANov2012,Ci;Mar12

    ! MorethanSaudiArabia

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Predicted1995-2000

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! And1nowsomewhatpessimis;cpeakforecastfrom2008peakin2053

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Linearsta;s;calapproachgeologyonly! Priceandinnova;onblind! riginalquan;tyofoilremaininginplacewrong1.2trillionbarrelsv.atleastseveraltrillion! Evenifknowledgeofsupplywasperfect! Forecas;ngconsump;onimpossible

    ! Asconsump;ondeterminesproduc;onrate! Thereisnopeakininnova;on

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! IssuereallyaboutresourcesecrecyofmanyOPECstates! E.g.Simmons,TwilightintheDesert! Afairpointaboutastrategicrisk! Butthatsecrecyismatchedbymuchlower

    levelsofexplora;on

    !AndUSAandUKcantreallylectureotherna;onsonnotknowinghowbigtheirresourcesare

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Sowhysitsomuchmoreexpensive?! Havewepeakedincheapoil

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Discoveryoflargenewfieldsnotkeepingpacewithconsumpon! But86%ofoilreservesinUSwereresultof

    revisionsandaddi;onsontopoforiginales;mateat;meofdiscovery

    ! Cantviewworldasonebigoilfield! Allusingthesametechnologyandgengthesameresults

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! In1970,camein1973! Sameerrorsquan;ty&demandwrongand

    peaksincesuperceded! Alsolobbyingbycoalinterestsreducinggasdemand

    ! Andpreven;ngearlierdashtogas

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    ! BillionslostonLNGImportterminals

    ! Nowlookingtoexport

    ! PrimarilytoPacificBasin

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! AnnualConsump;on3.5tcf! BGS2010es;mated5.3tcfresource! 2011BowlandShale200tcfCuadrillaResources! 2012Bri;shGeologicalSurvey1500tcf?

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! DecouplingfromoilpricesundermineGazprometal

    ! ExtensiveresourceoutsideofPECincl.China! Coalandilsubs;tu;oninpowerandtransport! Majorimprovementinairqualityatangible

    environmentalbenefit

    ! ReturnofManufacturing&PetrochemicalIndustriesHomecoming! Mythpuncturedofalwaysrisingpricesjus;fyingsupportforRenewables&Nuclear

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Sofocusoncheaperalterna;veenergytech.! Toomuchsubsidyfocusonmostcostly&

    lowestimpactsolar,biomass,windcantaffordall

    ! Morebenefitfromlong-lifeplantinterconnectors,nuclear,hydro,gigawastoragetoarbitragenightanddayprices

    !EUGovernmentscantdictatepowersupply! Shareholders,Bondmarket&Consumersdo! EuropeanU;li;esindirestraits

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Influen;alAcademicPeakilIndustry! $billionslostonstrandedUSLNGImportterminals

    ! $billionssquanderedonrenewablesbasedonassump;onsaboutfutureoil/gassupplies

    ! pportunitycost-prolongedPEC&higherprices

  • 7/29/2019 Lewis Peak Oil and Gas

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    ! Peakfueltaxrevenueroad-pricing! Peakpetrolsta;ons! Plateauratherthanpeak! Coalforgassubs;tu;on! Gasforoilsubs;tu;on! Methanefromhydrates! Globalconvergencedownwardsof

    naturalgasprices! Con;nuedrelocalisa;onofoilprices! BlackSwantechnologies&soOware