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Forecasting Leyte ii electric cooperative, inc. (LEYECO II) http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

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Page 1: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

ForecastingLeyte ii electric cooperative, inc.

(LEYECO II)

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

Page 2: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

HISTORICAL DATA

2

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

Page 3: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

HISTORICAL PEAK DEMAND (kW)TOTAL SYSTEM

MonthCAMPETIC SUBSTATION (kW)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 20951 22504 24926 24059 24020 25584 27467 28350 33572

February 22229 22641 24202 24924 25373 26473 28044 28707 33398

March 20240 23760 25801 27452 26003 26996 28755 30072 35402

April 20933 25368 30289 25673 26786 27571 29692 31164 35839

May 22097 25616 26541 25843 26682 28984 28907 31416 37584

June 22244 25567 26766 28057 26891 29247 28497 33810 38281

July 22451 25927 26677 26917 27780 28984 28812 33789 37670

August 21982 25401 25921 26842 27311 31183 28749 33936 36449

September

25592 24514 27045 26378 26408 32122 29757 33768 36799

October 26375 25231 26413 26277 26892 28827 32080 33834 38629

November 23522 25052 28534 26687 27206 28984 28119 33285 38716

December 23735 25794 27362 26469 28985 29247 29589 32928 38194

Page 4: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

HISTORICAL ENERGY PURCHASE (kWh)

TOTAL SYSTEM

MonthTOTAL SYSTEM (kWh)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 10837465 11354335 11701800 11804844 12320012 13311761 13151586 14923419

February 10623937 11581955 11932768 12105107 12404340 13085729 14238294 15909072

March 10209725 11565963 9551299 11484258 11787139 12123615 13641413 15164541

April 12152356 13045501 12538660 13081588 13413162 14792799 15402576 16389807

May 12078542 12502120 13034500 12513128 13669644 13841205 15401148 17367063

June 12416458 13126796 14056235 13713103 14461222 14279664 16771713 18874989

July 11637953 12601939 12756070 13140654 14151799 14586621 16277016 17484978

August 12233079 12940547 13304716 13252264 14368317 14621124 17067372 18156222

September 12244273 13374424 12561860 13121867 14328298 14945595 17156774 18189045

October 11934626 12274796 12733620 1236302713898878.6 14473515 16363019 10812611

November 11894622 13187276 12505137 13129616 13229449 14405959 16573284 17234091

December 11803298 12345500 11712357 11501229 13606606 14248059 15122226 17597244

Page 5: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)TOTAL

MonthTOTAL SALES (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 6847127 7736335 9506439 9647434 9869457 10197940 9837813 11966772 11674713 13443830

February 7450401 7235926 8955546 9896601 9620745 10503842 10557151 11683524 12022829 13539860

March 7270014 7574135 8745519 9455425 8141847 10332851 10985860 10735762 12098242 13791849

April 8267169 8920796 10020994 11016930 10108035 11142574 11239624 12813730 13328459 14641348

May 8881797 9229438 10097014 10273741 10801760 10933247 11721772 12532412 13502896 15318761

June 8540192 9980632 10752764 10993008 11683257 11524988 12649553 12666991 14975807 16759218

July 8299874 8831345 9829881 10581969 11280675 11546828 12282766 12918900 14308528 15938482

August 8547973 9719303 10542742 10744445 11827344 11485270 12699709 13110434 14814723 16120405

September 8636095 9505626 10331756 11252621 11123780 11454608 12614679 13052029 15008499 16210736

October 8883933 9322003 10131739 10834185 10887936 11025378 12692516 12904229 14574407 15382995

November 9191821 9551035 10158355 11402300 10825997 11184352 12087987 12484285 14843564 15430545

December

8673554 9581727 10017912 11195700 10173596 10867051 12765348 12724976 13695675 16045629

Page 6: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)RESIDENTIAL

MonthRESIDENTIAL (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 3138250 3486741 4320289 4405613 4446175 4445958 4301402 5261942 5066760 5589001

February 3264964 3490029 3865713 4203664 4221162 4516395 4601644 5000662 4950447 5357116

March 3110049 3217238 3823333 4072062 3729329 4370759 4791526 4465311 4822457 5321719

April 3651424 3998580 4344608 4761324 4352129 4940544 5059138 5567386 5725340 6008768

May 4054113 4071421 4452427 4624387 4767770 4878290 5195929 5408835 5531252 6270464

June 3676701 4642185 4781284 4877668 5285220 5136528 5757298 5487887 6083604 7137439

July 3665512 3946562 4274466 4623543 5042721 4992051 5354015 5347105 5673162 6473432

August 3830535 4374702 4819676 4583408 5123312 4952046 5532259 5655768 5875366 6584041

September 3617535 4159535 4476144 4915632 4909181 5049392 5430764 5548648 6177626 6561782

October 3900917 4136985 4416356 4804278 4733693 4674160 5623635 5472249 5715465 6298815

November 4155432 4299531 4429344 5252233 4720364 4965373 5203802 5398081 5889504 6322776

December

3999310 4540077 4333533 5064082 4421903 4705684 5747636 5385933 5248933 6470438

Page 7: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)COMMERCIAL

MonthCOMMERCIAL (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 1332565 1246606 1509071 1510260 1716177 1627375 1552235 1970593 1918634 1970944

February 1445577 364804 1484334 1607911 1682162 1728604 1812695 1996380 1971665 2056447

March 1408269 1247487 1406626 1526971 1121044 1675324 1794153 1757257 1936146 2080740

April 1606619 1459713 1601771 1777776 1609333 1836316 1862789 2080423 2166066 2225835

May 1617395 1534462 1588664 1606685 1725469 1734520 1952261 2023313 2131871 2220536

June 1673707 1682602 1783234 1779698 1895505 1840018 2065355 2104044 2332229 2419610

July 1639539 1363355 1607216 1717634 1886757 1861119 2054034 2109861 2206100 2430619

August 1591594 1649324 1758091 1758709 1895533 1934198 2180921 2249747 2264427 2372140

September 1613768 1650814 1710425 1839372 1849151 1926364 2155095 2147100 2385274 2414135

October 1521227 1541896 1607776 1786634 1810057 1915205 2078049 2106958 2244112 2295445

November 1560417 1673270 1670032 1747994 1751029 1837962 2016525 2075957 2273285 2261258

December

1543683 1575585 1629489 2141313 1702786 2004970 2054813 2099840 2083260 2286235

Page 8: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)INDUSTRIAL

MonthINDUSTRIAL (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 2062277 2014229 2512264 2595957 2535746 2968811 2804383 3385004 3393396 4487887

February 2418139 2273836 2465681 2827741 2503286 2994320 2855091 3326600 3626691 4554164

March 2437072 2083068 2355162 2594834 2222338 2999726 3055760 3250055 3837555 4810104

April 2684637 2347758 2823849 3131984 2907928 3096428 3034240 3693816 3890937 4860769

May 2889891 2479574 2829355 2770967 3027246 3094700 3191392 3667939 4240168 5205193

June 2867235 2393966 2860192 2976773 3151699 3208257 3350636 3651960 4985116 5448270

July 2648043 2308819 2663973 2912466 2995931 3318411 3363928 3834070 4799711 5344587

August 2791005 2375052 2758866 2942584 3407697 3233318 3462136 3679096 5001823 5386439

September 2337617 2375052 2755307 3032603 3097862 3083090 3445060 3800693 4827501 5502184

October 2266316 2432172 2732680 2870209 3070749 3137181 3545214 3789125 4945337 5135002

November 2354248 2383848 2770442 3111372 3210316 3017526 3520868 3522153 5067819 5168646

December

2150335 2340200 2823093 2680499 2879420 2955872 3672491 3830284 4876044 5645545

Page 9: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)PUBLIC BUILDING

MonthPUBLIC BUILDING (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 43624 720799 894405 828057 853691 840245 867054 1001146 959138 1043888

February 49414 846572 867510 950640 895647 927577 976057 1026216 1133137 1242713

March 44120 768303 889893 957773 764908 966352 1033444 938173 1181715 1251613

April 50102 845810 976379 1042151 928523 955130 972069 1142861 1216870 1211476

May 49945 878907 956114 986877 968813 906457 1072330 1109607 1272670 1292474

June 51182 997507 1056686 1057535 1020118 1024375 1159050 1100009 1264275 1420687

July 74786 941518 1012232 1026782 1044838 1057335 1179251 1264895 1300894 1359898

August 61000 1055659 932270 1148455 1085793 1048589 1158042 1199666 1343586 1440569

September 784196 1055659 1106900 1159815 950608 1080210 1259037 1211146 1288469 1392890

October 887899 941000 1067354 1058768 959561 1004291 1122621 1207041 1336302 1312067

November 809698 925455 976512 982923 826115 1029840 1020696 1156012 1271794 1330106

December

669807 851773 921379 993128 853587 891147 973620 1078624 1145500 1295083

Page 10: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)STREET LIGHT

MonthSTREET LIGHT (kWh)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

January 270410 267961 270410 307547 317668 315551 312740 348087 336785 352110

February 272308 260687 272308 306646 318488 336946 311663 333666 340889 329420

March 270505 258040 270505 303785 304227 320690 310976 324966 320369 327673

April 274387 268937 274387 303696 310122 314157 311388 329244 329246 334500

May 270454 265074 270454 284824 312462 319280 309860 322718 326935 330094

June 271368 264373 271368 301334 330715 315810 317214 323092 310583 333212

July 271995 271092 271995 301544 310428 317911 331538 362969 328661 329946

August 273839 264566 273839 311289 315008 317119 366350 326156 329520 337216

September 282979 264566 282979 305199 316978 315552 324723 344443 329629 339745

October 307573 269949 307573 314296 313875 294541 322997 328856 333191 341666

November 312026 268931 312026 307778 318173 333650 326096 332082 341162 347759

December

310419 274092 310419 316678 315901 309378 316788 330295 341938 348328

Page 11: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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HISTORICAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

Customer Type

NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RESIDENTIAL 34400 35736 36855 38258 39353 41274 42908 45534 47846 50542

COMMERCIAL 4377 4328 4614 4735 5098 4843 4840 4957 5271 5420

INDUSTRIAL 665 672 728 741 728 681 691 721 783 820

PUBLIC BUILDING

223 375 429 471 530 498 502 550 610 630

STREET LIGHT

46 44 47 50 63 63 77 105 132 169

TOTAL 39711 41156 42672 44255 45772 47360 49018 51867 54642 57581

Page 12: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

METHODOLOGY

18

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Page 13: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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FORECASTING PROCESS

1. GATHER HISTORICAL DATA

2. REMOVE OUTLIERS / NORMALIZE DATA

3. CHOOSE BEST FIT MODEL for FORECASTING- MAPE ≤ 3%- for those data that don’t fit any of the models even after normalization, allocation may be made or regression analysis using excel can be done

Page 14: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

FORECAST DATA

20

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Page 15: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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FORECASTED PEAK DEMAND (kW)TOTAL SYSTEM

MonthTOTAL SYSTEM (kW)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

January 37260.1 41239.4 45218.6 49197.9 53177.2 57156.4 61135.7 65115 69094.3

February 37852.5 41831.7 45811 49790.3 53769.5 57748.8 61728.1 65707.4 69686.6

March 39099.9 43079.1 47058.4 51037.7 55017 58996.2 62975.5 66954.8 70934

April 39734.9 43714.2 47693.4 51672.7 55652 59631.3 63610.5 67589.8 71569.1

May 40382 44361.3 48340.5 52319.8 56299.1 60278.4 64257.6 68236.9 72216.2

June 41194.7 45173.9 49153.2 53132.5 57111.8 61091 65070.3 69049.6 73028.8

July 41217.1 45196.3 49175.6 53154.9 57134.2 61113.4 65092.7 69072 73051.2

August 41239.8 45219.1 49198.4 53177.6 57156.9 61136.2 65115.5 69094.7 73074

September

41836.9 45816.1 49795.4 53774.7 57754 61733.2 65712.5 69691.8 73671

October 42398.1 46377.4 50356.7 54336 58315.2 62294.5 66273.8 70253 74232.3

November 42032.5 46011.8 49991 53970.3 57949.6 61928.8 65908.1 69887.4 73866.7

December 42471.9 46451.2 50430.5 54409.7 58389 62368.3 66347.6 70326.8 74306.1

Page 16: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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TOTAL SYSTEM PEAK DEMAND (kW)

Growth Rate:Historical : 5.73%Forecast : 6.98%

Page 17: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

FORECASTED ENERGY PURCHASE (kWh)TOTAL SYSTEM

MonthTOTAL SYSTEM (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

January 17045479 18625569 20205659 21785749 23365839 24945929 26526019 28106109

February 17448223 19028313 20608403 22188493 23768583 25348673 26928763 28508853

March 16986093 18566183 20146273 21726363 23306453 24886543 26466633 28046723

April 18676750 20256840 21836930 23417020 24997110 26577200 28157290 29737380

May 18705148 20285238 21865328 23445418 25025508 26605598 28185688 29765778

June 19615652 21195742 22775832 24355922 25936012 27516102 29096192 30676282

July 19116844 20696934 22277024 23857114 25437204 27017294 28597384 30177474

August 19589998 21170088 22750178 24330268 25910358 27490448 29070538 30650628

September 19650680 21230770 22810860 24390950 25971040 27551130 29131220 30711310

October 19170566 20750656 22330746 23910836 25490926 27071016 28651106 30231196

November 19295371 20875461 22455551 24035641 25615731 27195821 28775911 30356001

December 18857184 20437274 22017364 23597454 25177544 26757634 28337724 29917814

Page 18: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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TOTAL SYSTEM ENERGY PURCHASE (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 4.78%Forecast : 6.42%

Page 19: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

FORECASTED ENERGY SALES (kWh)TOTAL

MonthTOTAL SALES (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

January 14987793 16546922 18106052 19665181 21224311 22783441 24342570 25901700 27460829 29019959

February 15134872 16694001 18253131 19812260 21371390 22930520 24489649 26048779 27607908 29167038

March 15081762 16640891 18200021 19759151 21318280 22877410 24436539 25995669 27554799 29113928

April 16253973 17813103 19372232 20931362 22490491 24049621 25608751 27167880 28727010 30286139

May 16488713 18047843 19606972 21166102 22725231 24284361 25843491 27402620 28961750 30520879

June 17267340 18826470 20385599 21944729 23503858 25062988 26622118 28181247 29740377 31299506

July 16843301 18402431 19961560 21520690 23079819 24638949 26198079 27757208 29316338 30875467

August 17256581 18815710 20374840 21933970 23493099 25052229 26611358 28170488 29729618 31288747

September 17288046 18847175 20406305 21965434 23524564 25083693 26642823 28201953 29761082 31320212

October 17068070 18627199 20186329 21745458 23304588 24863718 26422847 27981977 29541106 31100236

November 17182675 18741805 20300934 21860064 23419194 24978323 26537453 28096582 29655712 31214842

December

17129712 18688842 20247971 21807101 23366231 24925360 26484490 28043619 29602749 31161878

Page 20: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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TOTAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 6.47%Forecast : 6.60%

Page 21: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

FORECASTED ENERGY SALES (kWh)

RESIDENTIAL

MonthRESIDENTIAL (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

January 6188700 6639697 7090694 7541691 7992688 8443685 8894682 9345679 9796676 10247672

February 6140062 6591059 7042056 7493053 7944050 8395047 8846043 9297040 9748037 10199034

March 6072013 6523010 6974006 7425003 7876000 8326997 8777994 9228991 9679988 10130985

April 6587732 7038729 7489726 7940723 8391720 8842716 9293713 9744710 10195707 10646704

May 6689074 7140071 7591068 8042065 8493062 8944059 9395056 9846053 10297050 10748047

June 6918704 7369701 7820698 8271695 8722692 9173689 9624685 10075682 10526679 10977676

July 6767686 7218683 7669680 8120677 8571674 9022671 9473668 9924665 10375662 10826659

August 6949626 7400623 7851620 8302617 8753614 9204611 9655608 10106605 10557602 11008599

September 6888766 7339763 7790760 8241757 8692753 9143750 9594747 10045744 10496741 10947738

October 6828653 7279650 7730647 8181644 8632641 9083638 9534635 9985631 10436628 10887625

November 6902468 7353465 7804462 8255458 8706455 9157452 9608449 10059446 10510443 10961440

December

6908294 7359291 7810288 8261284 8712281 9163278 9614275 10065272 10516269 10967266

Page 22: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 5.59%Forecast : 5.15%

Page 23: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

FORECASTED ENERGY SALES (kWh)

COMMERCIAL

MonthCOMMERCIAL (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

January 2175012 2269842 2364672 2459502 2554331 2649161 2743991 2838821 2933650 3028480

February 2213295 2308124 2402954 2497784 2592614 2687443 2782273 2877103 2971933 3066762

March 2157977 2252806 2347636 2442466 2537296 2632125 2726955 2821785 2916615 3011444

April 2324603 2419433 2514262 2609092 2703922 2798752 2893581 2988411 3083241 3178070

May 2314747 2409577 2504407 2599237 2694066 2788896 2883726 2978556 3073385 3168215

June 2462241 2557070 2651900 2746730 2841560 2936389 3031219 3126049 3220878 3315708

July 2424877 2519707 2614537 2709366 2804196 2899026 2993856 3088685 3183515 3278345

August 2473971 2568800 2663630 2758460 2853290 2948119 3042949 3137779 3232608 3327438

September 2479634 2574464 2669293 2764123 2858953 2953783 3048612 3143442 3238272 3333102

October 2400003 2494832 2589662 2684492 2779322 2874151 2968981 3063811 3158640 3253470

November 2391429 2486259 2581089 2675918 2770748 2865578 2960408 3055237 3150067 3244897

December

2387508 2482338 2577167 2671997 2766827 2861657 2956486 3051316 3146146 3240976

Page 24: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

COMMERCIAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 6.15%Forecast : 3.38%

Page 25: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

http://www.leyeco2.com.ph

ALLOCATED ENERGY SALES (kWh)INDUSTRIAL

MonthINDUSTRIAL (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

January 5073275 6029870 6986464 7943057 8899654 9856248 10812843 11769437 12726033 9099585

February 5169445 6126040 7082635 8039228 8995824 9952419 10909015 11865609 12822204 9309525

March 5231928 6188524 7145119 8101715 9058308 10014904 10971498 11928093 12884688 9455399

April 5695915 6652509 7609105 8565699 9522293 10478889 11435485 12392079 13348674 9424870

May 5803884 6760480 7717073 8673668 9630263 10586857 11543453 12500046 13456643 9469930

June 6167301 7123897 8080491 9037086 9993679 10950275 11906871 12863465 13820061 9640096

July 5894401 6850997 7807590 8764187 9720780 10677376 11633970 12590565 13547160 9546782

August 6056915 7013509 7970105 8926699 9883293 10839889 11796483 12753078 13709674 9545663

September 6155151 7111745 8068341 9024935 9981531 10938125 11894721 12851316 13807910 9694296

October 6111436 7068031 8024625 8981220 9937814 10894411 11851004 12807601 13764195 9673930

November 6193065 7149661 8106254 9062852 10019446 10976040 11932635 12889230 13845825 9641461

December

6225090 7181685 8138280 9094876 10051471 11008065 11964661 12921255 13877849 9582901

Page 26: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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ALLOCATED INDUSTRIAL ENERGY SALES (kWh)

0 50 100 150 200 250 3000

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Allocated Industrial Sales (kWh)

Historical DataForecast Data

Growth Rate:Historical : 7.43%Forecast : 4.20%

Page 27: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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FORECASTED ENERGY SALES (kWh)

PUBLIC BUILDING

MonthPUBLIC BUILDING (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011

January 1201012 1245972 1290933 1335894 1380854 1425815 1470775 1515736 1560696 1201012

February 1266143 1311104 1356064 1401025 1445985 1490946 1535906 1580867 1625827 1266143

March 1281485 1326445 1371406 1416366 1461327 1506287 1551248 1596208 1641169 1281485

April 1302688 1347649 1392609 1437570 1482530 1527491 1572451 1617412 1662372 1302688

May 1341123 1386083 1431044 1476004 1520965 1565926 1610886 1655847 1700807 1341123

June 1377500 1422461 1467421 1512382 1557343 1602303 1647264 1692224 1737185 1377500

July 1406070 1451030 1495991 1540951 1585912 1630872 1675833 1720794 1765754 1406070

August 1424376 1469337 1514297 1559258 1604218 1649179 1694139 1739100 1784060 1424376

September 1413913 1458874 1503834 1548795 1593755 1638716 1683676 1728637 1773597 1413913

October 1377148 1422108 1467069 1512029 1556990 1601950 1646911 1691871 1736832 1377148

November 1336865 1381825 1426786 1471746 1516707 1561667 1606628 1651588 1696549 1336865

December

1252107 1297068 1342028 1386989 1431949 1476910 1521870 1566831 1611792 1252107

Page 28: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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PUBLIC BUILDING ENERGY SALES (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 4.31%Forecast : 2.94%

Page 29: LEYECO 2 Forecasting

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FORECASTED ENERGY SALES (kWh)

STREET LIGHT

MonthSTREET LIGHT (kWh)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

January 349794 361541 373289 385037 396784 408532 420279 432027 443774 455522

February 345927 357674 369422 381170 392917 404665 416412 428160 439907 451655

March 338359 350106 361854 373601 385349 397097 408844 420592 432339 444087

April 343035 354783 366530 378278 390026 401773 413521 425268 437016 448763

May 339885 351632 363380 375128 386875 398623 410370 422118 433865 445613

June 341594 353341 365089 376836 388584 400332 412079 423827 435574 447322

July 350267 362014 373762 385509 397257 409004 420752 432499 444247 455995

August 351693 363441 375188 386936 398684 410431 422179 433926 445674 457421

September 350582 362329 374077 385824 397572 409319 421067 432814 444562 456310

October 350830 362578 374326 386073 397821 409568 421316 433063 444811 456558

November 358848 370595 382343 394090 405838 417586 429333 441081 452828 464576

December

356713 368460 380208 391955 403703 415450 427198 438945 450693 462441

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STREET LIGHT ENERGY SALES (kWh)

Growth Rate:Historical : 1.90%Forecast : 2.90%

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FORECASTED NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

Customer Type

NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

RESIDENTIAL 53283 56328 59589 63065 66756 70662 74784 79121 83674 88442

COMMERCIAL 5501 5667 5848 6047 6265 6507 6775 7074 7410 7790

INDUSTRIAL 766 777 787 797 808 819 829 840 851 863

PUBLIC BUILDING

661 692 722 753 783 814 844 874 905 935

STREET LIGHT

95 101 108 114 120 127 133 139 145 152

TOTAL 60345 63560 66991 70638 74500 78578 82872 87381 92106 97046

Customer TypeGrowth Rate (%)

Historical Forecast

RESIDENTIAL 4.18% 5.47%

COMMERCIAL 2.28% 3.79%

INDUSTRIAL 2.20% 1.31%

PUBLIC BUILDING 9.92% 3.77%

STREET LIGHT 12.85% 5.05%

TOTAL 4.04% 5.14%

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TOTAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

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NO. OF RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS

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NO. OF COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS

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NO. OF INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS

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NO. OF PUBLIC BUILDING CUSTOMERS

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NO. OF STREET LIGHT CUSTOMERS

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