Lian Pin Koh, PhDEcosystem Management GroupDepartment of Environmental Sciences

Balancing Society’s PrioritiesReconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and

carbon conservation in Indonesia

More mouths to feed...

Higher quality food...

(Beef makes you a stronger man)

More energy...

Conserve biodiversity...

Cap GHG emiss ions. . .

Sustain development and livelihoods...

Food

Development Biodiversity

Energy

Emissions

Food or fuel?

Biodiversity or food?

Food DevelopmentBiodiversityEnergy Emissions

Trade-off n. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another

quality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.

Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate

trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.

Where & How?

Production target

Business-As-Usual:Target most productive areas for

oil palm

Forest preservation:Target degraded areas & avoid forests

Food production:Avoid areas suitable for food

cultivation

Carbon conservation:Avoid lands rich in carbon

Hybrid strategy:Consider all priorities

Development pathways (scenarios)

Current production

Outcome variables…

Area required for oil palm Forests & biodiversity

Food production capacity Carbon stocks

Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)

Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

GIS data layers:

AB Dest

vailable

ata

Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)

Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

GIS data layers:New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield

Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield

Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality

Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock

Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon

New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/939465/ScenarioAnalysis_PNAS.swf

Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario

Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

Financial returns

Livelihoods

Future Add-ons

… and others

ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario

produced tradeoffs in other priorities

ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario

produced tradeoffs in other prioritiesTradeoffs could be minimized

through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy

Thank you for your attention!(More information: www.lianpinkoh.com)