life and economic impact of hypothetical intervention ... · life and economic impact of...

Life and Economic Impact of Hypothetical

Intervention Scenarios on Major Mental Illness in

Canada: 2011 to 2041

August 2012

Prepared on Behalf of the Mental Health Commission of Canada by:

North York Corporate Centre

4576 Yonge Street, Suite 400

Toronto, ON M2N 6N4

Tel: (416) 782-7475

Fax: (416) 309-2336

www.riskanalytica.com

http://www.riskanalytica.com/

Life and Economic Impact of Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios on Major Mental Illness in Canada: 2011 to 2041

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This report was prepared by RiskAnalytica on behalf of the Mental Health Commission of Canada.

The RiskAnalytica team members who contributed to this report are: Paul Smetanin, Carla Briante,

David Stiff, and Minhal Khan. The assumptions and calculations underlying RiskAnalytica’s Life at

Risk simulation platform were prepared by RiskAnalytica as part of this study. The use and

interpretation of the methodologies, data, assumptions and simulation outcomes is entirely that of

the authors.

Suggested Citation

Smetanin, P., Stiff, D., Briante, C., and Khan, M. Life and Economic Impact of Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios on Major Mental Illness in Canada: 2011 to 2041. RiskAnalytica, on behalf of the Mental

Health Commission of Canada 2012.

©Mental Health Commission of Canada, 2012

Acknowledgements This collaboration was coordinated and funded by the Mental Health Commission of Canada. The research was made possible through a financial contribution from Health Canada to the Mental Health Commission of Canada. RiskAnalytica would like to acknowledge the contributions, comments and input from the staff and project team at the Mental Health Commission of Canada:

Scott Dudgeon, Project Manager; Seniors Advisory Committee

Mike de Gagne, Chair First Nations, Inuit and Métis Advisory Committee

Dr. Elliot Goldner, Chair Science Advisory Committee

Dr. David Goldbloom, Vice-Chair

Steve Lurie, Chair Service Systems Advisory Committee

Sapna Mahajan, Chief Integration Officer

Michelle McLean, Vice President, Public Affairs Phil Upshall, Advisor, Stakeholder Relations

Nancy Reynolds, Child and Youth Advisory Committee


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE

Mental illness is a behavioural or psychological syndrome that significantly interferes with an individual’s

thought processing abilities, social abilities, emotions and behaviour (Mental Disorders, WHO). Our

previous study1 estimated that 1 in 5 Canadians are affected annually by mood disorders, anxiety

disorders, schizophrenia, attention deficit/hyperactive disorders (ADHD), conduct disorders,

oppositional defiant disorders (ODD), substance use disorders or dementia. Not only does mental illness

impact individuals but it also places a significant impact on families, communities and the health care

system.

Study Objective

The purpose of this study was to investigate the high level impacts of hypothetical intervention

scenarios on the baseline burden in our previous analysis, across four target areas.. When compared to

the baseline outcomes, the hypothetical scenarios demonstrate the potential impact on 12-month

prevalence and economic outcomes (direct health care costs and indirect wage-based productivity cost)

for all major mental illness in Canada over the simulated time frame. It is important to note that the

intervention scenarios were hypothetical in nature and did not include any specific evidence-based

mental health interventions. Furthermore, it is important to note that the feasibility of these impacts

may be dependent upon the mental illness itself, where some benefits may be more feasible or realistic

for certain mental illnesses than for others.

A total of five intervention scenarios (spanning four target areas) were identified by the Mental Health

Commission of Canada and evaluated within the Life at Risk platform. These included:

All-Cause Incidence: o A reduction in the overall all-cause incidence by 10%;

Prior Mental Illness in Childhood or Adolescence: o A reduction in the risks associated with prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence

by 10%;

Remission Rates:

1 Smetanin et al. (2011)

2 For this analysis it was assumed that increasing the remission rates had no impact on cognitive impairment including


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o An increase in remission rates by 10 %, thereby reducing the effects associated with mental illness2;

Economic Disability: o A reduction in workplace disability by 10% which affects productivity in the labour force

but not the prevalence or direct costs of mental illness;

The Combined Impact of All of the Above: o The impact of all of the above interventions applied simultaneously within the Life at

Risk platform.

INTERVENTION SCENARIO: MODEL RESULTS

Comparisons of the baseline impact of mental illness in our previous study to the proposed hypothetical

interventions were assessed to determine the high-level impact of the interventions relative to the

baseline results across each of the four intervention target areas. The results demonstrate the potential

benefits of each hypothetical intervention and do not include specific mental health interventions that

would illustrate how these targets could be met. In addition, the feasibility of each scenario may be

dependent upon the type of mental illness. Therefore the results should be viewed as a general

quantification that demonstrates the potential benefits of the hypothetical scenarios. All economic

results below are reported in annual future value terms and 2011 cumulative present value terms.

Prevalence Impacts

Figure 1 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

2 For this analysis it was assumed that increasing the remission rates had no impact on cognitive impairment including

dementia.

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

Child/Adol RR

Combined

Any* is Mood, Anxiety,Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia


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Relative to the baseline model, the short-term (2011-2021) impacts are expected to yield the following

results:

By increasing remission by 10%, over 183,900 fewer Canadians will be living with the effects

associated with major mental illness by 2021 (a 0.5% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative

to the baseline model)3;

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, over 289,860 fewer Canadians will be living with a major

mental illness by 2021 (a 0.8% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model)4;

By reducing the relative risk of incidence of mental illness due to a prior mental illness in

childhood or adolescence, over 22,100 fewer Canadians will be living with a major mental illness

by 2021 (a 0.1% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and

The combination of each of the above scenarios results in over 488,120 fewer Canadians living

with a major mental illness by 2021 (a 1.3% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model).

Relative to the baseline model, the long-term (2011-2041) impacts are expected to yield the following

results:

By increasing remission by 10%, over 367,220 fewer Canadians will be living with the effects

associated with major mental illness by 2041 (a 0.9% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative

to the baseline model);

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, over 597,440 fewer Canadians will be living with a major

mental illness by 2041 (a 1.4% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);

3 It is important to note that increasing the remission rates was assumed to have no impact on cognitive impairment including

dementia.

4 It is important to note that increasing remission rates was assumed to have no impact on cognitive impairment including

dementia.


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By reducing the relative risk associated with a prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence,

over 40,160 fewer Canadians will be living with a major mental illness by 2041 (a 0.1% reduction

in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and

The combination of each of the above scenarios results in over 981,280 fewer Canadians living

with a major mental illness by 2041 (a 2.3% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model).

Total Direct Economic Impacts

Figure 2 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

$30,000.0

Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk

Combined Intervention

Futu

re V

alu

e (

$ M

illi

on

s)

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any*

Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041

Any* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia


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The table below outlines the expected short-term and long-term direct health care cost savings5

attributable to major mental illnesses for each scenario in future value and cumulative 2011 present

value terms.

Table 1 Direct Health Care Cost Savings Attributable to Any Mental Illness for each Hypothetical Scenario

Impact 10% Increase in Remission Rate

10% Reduction in All-Cause Incidence

10% Reduction in Relative Risk Associated with Prior Youth Illness

Combination of All Scenarios

Short-Term (2011-2021) Future Value Terms

Over $1.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved annually by 2021


Over $129.5 million dollars are expected to be saved annually by 2021

Over $5.2 billion in annual direct health care cost savings by 2021

Long-Term (2011-2041) Future Value Terms



Over $583.0 million dollars are expected to be saved annually by 2041

Over $28.0 billion in annual direct health care cost savings by 2041

Short-Term (2011-2021) Cumulative 2011 Present Value Terms

Present value of cumulative short-term savings of over $4.6 billion dollars


Present value of cumulative short-term savings of over $562.4 million dollars


Long-Term (2011-2041) Cumulative 2011 Present Value Terms

Present value of cumulative long-term savings of over $35.2 billion dollars




5 Note that direct costs include costs to the health care system such as hospitalizations, physician visits, medication, care and

support staff. The costs do not include costs to the justice system, social service and education systems, costs for child and

youth services, informal care giving costs or costs attributable to losses in health related quality of life.


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Total Indirect Economic Impacts

Figure 3 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Annual Future Value Terms for each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

The table below outlines the expected short-term and long-term wage-based productivity benefits (the

indirect economic benefits driven by improved productivity in the labour force measured by the total

wages paid in the economy) for each scenario in future value and cumulative 2011 present value terms.

$-

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

$9,000.0

$10,000.0

Reduced Disability

Increase Remission

Reduce Incidence

Reduce Relative Risk


Futu

re V

alu

e ($

Mil

lio

ns)

Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Including

Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041

All* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia


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Table 2 Wage-Based Productivity Benefits for each Hypothetical Scenario

Impact 10% Increase in Remission Rate

10% Reduction in All-Cause Incidence

10% Reduction in Relative Risk Associated with Prior Youth Illness

10% Reduction in Economic Disability

Combination of All Scenarios

Short-Term (2011-2021) Future Value Terms

Over $88.6 million in indirect economic benefits annually by 2021



Over $2.3 billion dollars in indirect economic benefits annually by 2021


Long-Term (2011-2041) Future Value Terms



Over $205.0 million dollars in indirect economic benefits annually by 2041



Short-Term (2011-2021) Cumulative 2011 Present Value Terms

Cumulatively over $83.3 million dollars in indirect economic benefits are expected

Cumulatively over $1.0 billion dollars in indirect economic benefits are expected

Cumulatively over $141.1 million dollars in indirect economic benefits are expected



Long-Term (2011-2041) Cumulative 2011 Present Value Terms






CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the baseline outcomes in our previous study, the hypothetical scenarios demonstrate a

significant reduction in 12-month prevalence, direct health care costs and indirect wage-based

productivity costs of major mental illnesses. With relatively small changes in each of the target areas,

significant life and economic benefits can be achieved over time. As a result of the relatively high

baseline prevalence for all mental illnesses across all age-groups the greatest benefits are shown in the

long-term. This is due to interventions that directly change the prevalence and their incremental

impacts over the simulation timeframe, which cumulatively add to a significant reduction in the long-

term.


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Over the next 30 years, the combination of each of the target scenarios is expected to decrease the 12-

month prevalence of major mental illnesses by 2.3%, reducing the number of people living with a mental

illness in 2041 from 8.9 million to 7.9 million. This decrease in prevalence is expected to significantly

reduce the cumulative direct health care costs by over $179.3 billion dollars within the next 30 years.

The combined scenarios are also expected to significantly reduce the cumulative present-value wage-

based productivity costs by over $76.1 billion over the next 30 years.


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STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT

This report is divided into four Sections:

Section 1 provides details on the background, purpose and objectives of the study; as well as a

general overview of the scenario models and assumptions.

Section 2 summarizes the impacts of the hypothetical intervention scenarios; and

Section 3 summarizes the key findings and conclusions.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3

Introduction and Scope ............................................................................................................................. 3

Intervention Scenario: Model Results ....................................................................................................... 4

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 9

Structure of the Report ............................................................................................................................... 11

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... 14

List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ 16

1 Introduction and Background.................................................................................................... 22

1.1 Overview of Engagement Scope ............................................................................................... 22

1.2 Overview of Scenarios ............................................................................................................... 23

2 Scenario Analysis of Mental Illness Interventions ..................................................................... 28

2.1 LIfe Impacts of Scenarios ........................................................................................................... 28

2.1.1 Any Mental Illness ............................................................................................................... 29

2.1.2 ADHD ................................................................................................................................... 34

2.1.3 ODD ...................................................................................................................................... 39

2.1.4 Conduct Disorders ............................................................................................................... 44

2.1.5 Mood and Anxiety Disorders ............................................................................................... 49

2.1.6 Schizophrenia ...................................................................................................................... 54

2.1.7 Substance Use Disorders ..................................................................................................... 59

2.1.8 Cognitive Impairment Including Dementia ......................................................................... 64

2.2 Economic Impacts of Scenarios ................................................................................................. 68

3 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 75

3.1 General Conclusions and Implications ...................................................................................... 75

Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................. 77

A Detailed LIfe at Risk Methodology ............................................................................................ 78

B Detailed Results ......................................................................................................................... 79

B.1.1 Any Mental Illness ............................................................................................................... 79

B.1.2 ADHD ................................................................................................................................... 88

B.1.3 ODD ...................................................................................................................................... 97

B.1.4 Conduct Disorder ............................................................................................................... 106

B.1.5 Mood and Anxiety Disorders ............................................................................................. 115


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B.1.6 Schizophrenia .................................................................................................................... 124

B.1.7 Substance Use Disorders ................................................................................................... 133

B.1.8 Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment ....................................................................... 142

B.1.9 Direct Costs Excluding Dementia ....................................................................................... 151

B.1.10 Direct Costs For Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment ............................................. 154

B.1.11 Total Direct Costs ............................................................................................................... 157

B.1.12 Indirect Costs ..................................................................................................................... 161


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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.................................................... 4

Figure 2 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ......................................................................................... 6

Figure 3 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Annual Future Value Terms for each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ...................................................................... 8

Figure 4 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios................................................... 29

Figure 5 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 30

Figure 6 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 31

Figure 7 Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 34

Figure 8 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 35

Figure 9 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 36

Figure 10 Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 39

Figure 11 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 40

Figure 12 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 41

Figure 13 Estimated Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.................................................. 44

Figure 14 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 45

Figure 15 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 46

Figure 16 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 49

Figure 17 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .......................................... 50


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Figure 18 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 51

Figure 19 Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.................................................. 54

Figure 20 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 55

Figure 21 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 56

Figure 22 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 59

Figure 23 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 60

Figure 24 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 61

Figure 25 Estimated Number of People with Dementia* for the Baseline Model, and All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario. .................................................................................................. 64

Figure 26 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario. .................................................................................................................................... 65

Figure 27 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................................................................... 66

Figure 28 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 69

Figure 29 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Annual Future Value Terms for each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 71

Figure 30 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Excluding Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................................................................................................ 151

Figure 31 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Excluding Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 151

Figure 32 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................................................... 154

Figure 33 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 154


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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Direct Health Care Cost Savings Attributable to Any Mental Illness for each Hypothetical Scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 7

Table 2 Wage-Based Productivity Benefits for each Hypothetical Scenario ........................................... 9

Table 3 Baseline Model: Relative Risk of Adolescent Mental Illness Given Prior Childhood Illness ..... 25

Table 4 Baseline Model: Relative Risk of Adult Mental Illness Given Prior Adolescent Illness ............ 25

Table 5 Scenario Model: Relative Risk of Adolescent Mental Illness Given Prior Childhood Illness .... 26

Table 6 Scenario Model: Relative Risk of Adult Mental Illness Given Prior Adolescent Illness ............ 26

Table 7 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .. 33

Table 8 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Any Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................... 33

Table 9 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-month prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................................................................................. 38

Table 10 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 38

Table 11 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................................................................................. 42

Table 12 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................... 43

Table 13 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 48

Table 14 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............... 48

Table 15 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................................................................................. 53

Table 16 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................. 53

Table 17 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .. 57

Table 18 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................... 58


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Table 19 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................ 62

Table 20 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 63

Table 21 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario ................................................. 67

Table 22 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Crude Prevalence of People with Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario ........................................................................................ 67

Table 23 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 69

Table 24 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Cumulative Present Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 70

Table 25 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................................................................................. 72

Table 26 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Cumulative Present Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................................................. 74

Table 27 Estimated Number of Males with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.................................................. 79

Table 28 Estimated Number of Females with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 80

Table 29 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.................................................. 81

Table 30 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 82

Table 31 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .............................................................. 83

Table 32 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 84

Table 33 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 85

Table 34 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................................................. 86

Table 35 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ....................................................................................... 87


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Table 36 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 88

Table 37 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 89

Table 38 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 90

Table 39 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .......................................... 91

Table 40 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .......................................... 92

Table 41 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .......................................... 93

Table 42 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................. 94

Table 43 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................... 95

Table 44 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................. 96

Table 45 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 97

Table 46 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 98

Table 47 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................. 99

Table 48 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 100

Table 49 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 101

Table 50 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 102

Table 51 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................................................................... 103

Table 52 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................... 104

Table 53 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................... 105

Table 54 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. 106


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Table 55 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. 107

Table 56 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. 108

Table 57 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................ 109

Table 58 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................ 110

Table 59 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ............................ 111

Table 60 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................... 112

Table 61 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................... 113

Table 62 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................................... 114

Table 63 Estimated Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................ 115

Table 64 Estimated Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .......................... 116

Table 65 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ................................ 117

Table 66 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 118

Table 67 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 119

Table 68 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................ 120

Table 69 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................... 121

Table 70 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 122

Table 71 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 123

Table 72 Estimated Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios................................................ 124

Table 73 Estimated Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios................................................ 125


Page | 20

Table 74 Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios................................................ 126

Table 75 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................... 127

Table 76 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 128

Table 77 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 129

Table 78 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 130

Table 79 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 131

Table 80 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 132

Table 81 Estimated Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 133

Table 82 Estimated Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 134

Table 83 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. .................................................................. 135

Table 84 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 136

Table 85 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 137

Table 86 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ..................................................................................... 138

Table 87 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................................................... 139

Table 88 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................................................... 140

Table 89 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios. ........................................................................................................... 141

Table 90 Estimated Number of Males with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................ 142

Table 91 Estimated Number of Females with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................ 143

Table 92 Estimated Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................ 144


Page | 21

Table 93 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................................ 145

Table 94 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................................ 146

Table 95 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. ................................................................................................................ 147

Table 96 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in Males for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. .................................................................................................................................. 148

Table 97 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in Females for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. .................................................................................................................................. 148

Table 98 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in People for the Incidence Reduction Scenario. .................................................................................................................................. 150

Table 99 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Excluding Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions). ......................................................................................... 152

Table 100 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Excluding Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions). .................................................................... 153

Table 101 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Canada in Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios (in $ Millions). .................................................................................... 155

Table 102 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Canada in Future Value Terms for the Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios (in $ Millions). ......................................................................................................... 156

Table 103 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions). ......................................................................................... 157

Table 104 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions). .................................................................... 158

Table 105 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions)..................................................................... 159

Table 106 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions). ............................................... 160

Table 107 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Annual Future Value Terms (in $ Millions). ........................................................... 161

Table 108 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions). ................................................... 162


Page | 22

1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

1.1 OVERVIEW OF ENGAGEMENT SCOPE

Purpose and Objectives

In our previous analysis (Smetanin et al. 2011), we developed a base model that was used to estimate

the current and future impact of mental illness in Canada beginning in 2011 and annually over the next

three decades. The mental illnesses included in this model were mood disorders, anxiety disorders,

schizophrenia, substance use disorders (SUDs), attention deficit/hyperactive disorders (ADHD), conduct

disorders, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and cognitive impairment including dementia. Our Life at

Risk platform was used to simulate incidence, prevalence and mortality for the total population in

Canada over the age of 9, and project these measures over a 30 year time horizon. Assuming steady-

state prevalence, and no changes in treatment or health care utilization, these measures were linked to

current estimates of health service use and workplace productivity to forecast the economic impact of

mental illness now and in the future.

The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the high level impact of hypothetical mental health

intervention scenarios within the simulation platform on the baseline burden in Smetanin et al. (2011)

When compared to the baseline outcomes, the scenario impacts demonstrate how each hypothetical

intervention could affect the prevalence and economic costs (direct health care costs and indirect wage-

based productivity cost) of major mental illness in Canada over the simulated time frame.

A total of five intervention scenarios were identified by the Mental Health Commission of Canada

(MHCC) and evaluated within the Life at Risk platform. Each of the scenarios evaluated the impact of

making a 10% improvement across each of the following target areas:

All-Cause Incidence: o A reduction in the overall all-cause incidence by 10%

Prior Mental Illness in Childhood or Adolescence: o A reduction in the risks associated with prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence

by 10%

Remission Rates:


Page | 23

o An increase in remission rates by 10 %, thereby reducing the negative effects associated with mental illness6

Economic Disability: o A reduction in workplace disability by 10% which affects productivity in the labour force

but not the prevalence or direct costs of mental illness

The Combined Impact of Each of the Above: o The impact of all of the above interventions applied simultaneously within the Life at

Risk platform

Out of Scope to the Current Analysis

Although the potential benefits of each hypothetical intervention were quantified, the analysis did not

include specific mental health interventions supported by evidence to illustrate how these targets could

be met. That is, the interventions presented in this report are hypothetical in nature and show the

possible reductions in prevalence of mental illness and the direct and indirect costs that could be met if

10% improvements across each target area could be achieved. The results can be viewed as a general

quantification of the potential impacts across each of the four target areas; however, the actual

intervention programs that could be implemented to meet these targets were excluded from this

analysis.

1.2 OVERVIEW OF SCENARIOS

The following section provides further details on each of the hypothetical interventions tested in the

model including key assumptions. Each of the scenarios described below were simulated and compared

to the baseline model over a thirty year time frame, from 2011 to 2041. For more information on the

baseline model please refer to Smetanin et al. (2011).

All-Cause Incidence

The all-cause incidence scenario examined the impact of reducing the overall all cause incidence of

mental illness across each of the major mental illnesses in Canada including mood disorders, anxiety

disorders, schizophrenia, SUD, dementia, CD, ODD and ADHD. The annual incidence rate of each illness

was reduced by 10% to examine the impact on 12-month prevalence, total direct and indirect costs

6 Note that for this analysis it was assumed that an increase in remission rates had no impact on cognitive impairment including

dementia.


Page | 24

relative to the baseline model. It is important to note that all other model parameters remained

unchanged from the baseline and that existing prevalent cases were not altered. It was only the

incidence rate of new cases that was adjusted.

Prior Mental Illness in Childhood or Adolescence

This risk reduction scenario examined the impact of reducing the risks associated with prior mental

illness in childhood and adolescence for all major mental illnesses in Canada. This hypothetical

intervention assessed the impact of decreasing the relative risks associated with a prior mental illness in

youth by 10% on 12-month prevalence7, total direct and indirect costs against the baseline model. This

scenario included two parts:

1. A 10% reduction in the risks associated with incidence of any adolescent mental illness given a

childhood mental illness; and

2. A 10% reduction in the risks associated with any adult mental illness given an adolescent mental

illness.

As in the incidence reduction scenario, the existing prevalent cases were not altered at the time of the

intervention. The relative risks of an adolescent mental illness given prior childhood illness from our

baseline model are shown in Table 3.

7 Note that it is the excess risk above one that is reduced by 10%, not the total value of the relative risk factor.


Page | 25

Table 3 Baseline Model: Relative Risk of Adolescent Mental Illness Given Prior Childhood Illness

The relative risks of an adult mental illness given prior adolescent illness from our baseline model are

shown in Table 4.

Table 4 Baseline Model: Relative Risk of Adult Mental Illness Given Prior Adolescent Illness

Table 5 and Table 6 provide the 10% reduction in the relative risk estimates associated with the

incidence of any adolescent mental illness given a childhood mental illness and the risk of any adult

mental illness given an adolescent mental illness, respectively.

Prior Childhood

Illness ADHD Anxiety

Conduct

Disorders

Mood

Disorders ODD SUD

ADHD - 1.66 1.89 1.99 4.99 2.88

Anxiety 4.14 - 2.22 2.93 2.47 1.34

Conduct Disorders 6.54 1.09 - 1.23 3.50 3.38

Mood Disorders 4.28 3.33 3.31 - 4.09 2.45

ODD 4.06 2.33 3.18 2.30 - 3.09

ADHD - 1.60 1.92 1.92 4.98 3.17

Anxiety 5.10 - 2.27 2.78 2.50 1.37


Mood Disorders 5.39 3.00 3.45 - 4.17 2.71

ODD 5.01 2.17 3.30 2.20 - 3.54

Adolescent Illness

Male

Female

Prior Adolescent

Illness Anxiety

Mood

Disorders SUD Anxiety

Mood

Disorders SUD

ADHD 2.21 1.23 2.23 2.00 1.22 2.52

Anxiety - 2.43 1.04 - 2.33 1.05

Conduct Disorders 1.78 1.74 2.81 1.67 1.69 3.46

Mood Disorders 3.05 - 1.38 2.70 - 1.44

ODD 2.74 2.08 1.84 2.40 1.99 2.03

SUD 2.59 1.88 - 2.31 1.81 -

Adult Illness - Male Adult Illness - Female


Page | 26

Table 5 Scenario Model: Relative Risk of Adolescent Mental Illness Given Prior Childhood Illness

Table 6 Scenario Model: Relative Risk of Adult Mental Illness Given Prior Adolescent Illness

Remission Rates

The remission rate scenario examined the potential impact of increasing remission rates for all major

mental illnesses in Canada by 10% over the baseline model, on 12-month prevalence, total direct and

indirect costs. It is important to note that the model assumed no remission rates for those with

cognitive impairment including dementia. It is also important to note that increasing remission rates do

necessarily reduce the number of people living with mental illness but rather reduces the effects

associated with mental illness, improving overall health and the costs associated with treatment of

mental illness.

Prior Childhood

Illness ADHD Anxiety

Conduct

Disorders

Mood

Disorders ODD SUD

ADHD - 1.59 1.80 1.89 4.59 2.69

Anxiety 3.83 - 2.10 2.74 2.33 1.31


Mood Disorders 3.95 3.09 3.08 - 3.78 2.31

ODD 3.75 2.20 2.96 2.17 - 2.88

ADHD - 1.54 1.82 1.82 4.58 2.96

Anxiety 4.69 - 2.14 2.60 2.35 1.34


Mood Disorders 4.95 2.80 3.21 - 3.85 2.54

ODD 4.61 2.06 3.07 2.08 - 3.29

Adolescent Illness

Male

Female

Prior Adolescent

Illness Anxiety

Mood

Disorders SUD Anxiety

Mood

Disorders SUD

ADHD 2.09 1.21 2.11 1.90 1.19 2.37

Anxiety - 2.29 1.04 - 2.20 1.04

Conduct Disorders 1.70 1.67 2.63 1.60 1.62 3.21

Mood Disorders 2.84 - 1.34 2.53 - 1.39

ODD 2.56 1.98 1.75 2.26 1.89 1.92

SUD 2.43 1.79 - 2.18 1.73 -

Adult Illness - Male Adult Illness - Female


Page | 27

Economic Disability

Economic disability is a measure of how an illness affects productivity in the labour force. The economic

disability scenario examined the impact of decreasing the economic disability associated with (or

equivalently improving the productivity of people with) all major mental illnesses in Canada by 10% over

the baseline on the total indirect economic costs. This hypothetical scenario did not directly alter the

prevalence of illness in the labour force or the direct costs associated with mental illness, but assumed

that people with mental illness would be 10% more productive in the labour force than in the base

model.

The Combined Impact of All of the Above

The final scenario examined a combination of all of four scenarios for all major mental illness in Canada.

That is, it evaluated the combined impact of:

Decreasing the all-cause incidence of mental illness by 10%;

Increasing the remission rates by 10%;

Decreasing the relative risks associated with prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence by

10%; and

Decreasing the workplace disability associated with mental illness by 10%.


Page | 28

2 SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF MENTAL ILLNESS INTERVENTIONS

The impacts of the proposed intervention scenarios were compared to the base model results to derive

the value proposition of the interventions. The following section summarizes the value proposition of

each scenario over the simulation period. It is important to note that since these interventions

represent hypothetical scenarios, the actual intervention programs and the costs associated with

program implementation and human resource requirements were not taken into account. In addition,

the hypothetical interventions may have additional benefits not taken into consideration within this

analysis. These additional benefits may include, but are not limited to, improvements in activities of

daily living, quality of life and comorbid health conditions, as well as benefits associated with burden

placed on formal and informal caregivers. Note that the economic disability reduction scenario does not

affect the incidence or prevalence of mental illness. It only affects productivity in the labour force. There

results of the economic disability scenario are limited to Section 2.2.

2.1 LIFE IMPACTS OF SCENARIOS

In this section the impact of each scenario on the 12-month prevalence from 2011 to 2041 is presented

for each of the mental illnesses included in the model. For detailed annual results, please refer to

Appendix B.


Page | 29

2.1.1 ANY MENTAL ILLNESS

Figure 4 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 4 compares the estimated number of Canadians with any mental illness at baseline to each of the

hypothetical scenarios over a 30-year simulation period. For both males and females, reducing the all

cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction on the number of people living with any

mental illness. The interventions affect the health state of the population through altered incidence and

remission rates. The prevalence was not altered directly. As a result, the benefits of the interventions

grow over time. For example, when incidence rates are reduced, those currently with a mental illness

will continue with that illness until remission or death. However, over time fewer people are becoming

ill than would have without the intervention resulting in a reduction in prevalence which grows over

time. The estimated reduction in these numbers is shown in Figure 5. The reduction in prevalence as a

percentage of the population is shown in Figure 6. Note that this is the absolute prevalence in the

population, not the relative reduction in the number of people with any illness. Since the simulation

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

Child/Adol RR

Combined


3,000,000

3,200,000

3,400,000

3,600,000

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence)- Male

Base Case Remission Incidence RR CombinedAny* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia

3,000,000

3,200,000

3,400,000

3,600,000

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence)- Female

Base Case Remission Incidence RR CombinedAny* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia


Page | 30

time-frame is 30 years, a significant number of people with mental illness prior to the intervention

remain alive in the model limiting the reduction in prevalence to 2.3% when all interventions are

combined.

Figure 5 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

Child/Adol RR

Combined


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any* Mental

Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male

Remission Incidence RR Combined


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041R

ed

uct

ion

in N

um

be

r of

Can

adia

ns

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical

Intervention Scenarios- Female




Page | 31

Figure 6 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 7 and Table 8 provide the short-term and long-term impacts associated with each of the

hypothetical scenarios as well as the impact of combining each scenario.


results:

By increasing remission by 10%, it is estimated that 183,900 fewer Canadians will be living with

the effects associated with major mental illness by 2021 (a 0.5% reduction in 12-month

prevalence relative to the baseline model);

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, there is an estimated reduction of 289,860 Canadians

living with major metal illness by 2021 (a 0.8% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model) is expected;.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental

Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-Male



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-

Female




Page | 32

By reducing the relative risk associated with a prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence

by 10%, it is estimated that 22,100 fewer Canadians will be living with a major mental illness by

2021 (a 0.1% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and

The combination of each of the above scenarios results in an estimated reduction of 488,120

Canadians living with a major mental illness by 2021 (a 1.3% reduction in 12-month prevalence

relative to the baseline model).


results:

By increasing remission by 10%, 367,220 fewer Canadians were estimated to be living with the

effects associated with major mental illness by 2041 (a 0.9% reduction in 12-month prevalence

relative to the baseline model);

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, it is estimated that 597,440 fewer Canadians will be

living with a major mental illness by 2041 (a 1.4% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to

the baseline model);


an estimated 40,160 fewer Canadians will be living with a major mental illness by 2041 (a 0.1%

reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and

The combination of each of the above scenarios results in in an estimated reduction of 981,280

Canadians living with a major mental illness by 2041 (a 2.3% reduction in 12-month prevalence

relative to the baseline model).


Page | 33

Table 7 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 8 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Any Mental Illness for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence

Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 7,403,560 183,905 289,863 22,133 488,122

2031 8,177,950 291,195 466,907 33,063 775,243

2041 8,905,831 367,222 597,443 40,163 981,287

2021 3,412,906 94,559 140,909 11,223 242,909

2031 3,733,855 146,619 223,493 17,045 379,224

2041 4,042,493 180,410 283,636 21,054 473,323

2021 3,990,654 89,347 148,954 10,910 245,212

2031 4,444,095 144,575 243,413 16,018 396,019

2041 4,863,338 186,813 313,807 19,109 507,964

*Any includes ADHD, ODD, CD, SUD, Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, and Dementia

Reduction in Number of People in each Scenario

Total

Male

Female

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011

to 2041

Baseline Number

of People


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 19.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3%

2031 20.1% 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 1.9%

2041 20.5% 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% 2.3%

Male 2021 18.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3%

2031 18.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 1.9%

2041 18.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 2.2%

Female 2021 21.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3%

2031 21.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 1.9%

2041 22.2% 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% 2.3%


Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence ScenarioBaseline 12-

Month

Prevalence

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Page | 34

2.1.2 ADHD

Figure 7 Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 7 compares the estimated number of Canadian youth with ADHD at the baseline to each of the


cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction on the number of youth living with ADHD.

The estimated reduction in these numbers is shown in Figure 8. The reduction in prevalence as a

percentage of the population is shown in Figure 9.

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month

Prevalence)- Male

Base Case Remission Incidence RR Combined

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month

Prevalence)- Female



Page | 35

Figure 8 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ADHD (12-

Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios- Female



Page | 36

Figure 9 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:

By increasing remission by 10%, an estimated 3,360 fewer Canadian youth will be living with the

effects associated with ADHD by 2021 (a 0.13% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, it is estimated that 15,690 fewer Canadian youth will be

living with ADHD by 2021 (a 0.69% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD for

Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female



Page | 37


by 10%, it is estimated that 150 fewer Canadian youth will be living with ADHD by 2021 (a 0.01%



Canadian youth living with ADHD by 2021 (a 0.82% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to

the baseline model).


results:


effects associated with ADHD by 2041 (a 0.14% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


living with ADHD by 2041 (a 0.73% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);


by 10%, it is estimated that 170 fewer Canadian youth will be living with ADHD by 2041 (a 0.1%



Canadian youth living with ADHD by 2041 (a 0.86% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to



Page | 38

Table 9 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-month prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 10 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 176,185 3,367 15,693 152 18,929

2031 193,039 3,894 18,496 172 22,162

2041 200,220 4,046 19,179 178 22,987

2021 153,399 2,942 13,585 126 16,408

2031 168,107 3,403 16,001 143 19,201

2041 174,359 3,536 16,592 148 19,916

2021 22,786 424 2,108 - 2,520

2031 24,932 491 2,494 - 2,961

2041 25,861 510 2,587 - 3,071

Total

Male

Female

Impact of Different Intervention Scenarios on the Estimated Number of People with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) Aged 9

to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline Number

of People



Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 7.62% 0.13% 0.69% 0.01% 0.82%

2031 7.63% 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2041 7.62% 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

Male 2021 12.94% 0.23% 1.16% 0.01% 1.38%

2031 12.95% 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2041 12.93% 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

Female 2021 2.02% 0.03% 0.19% - 0.22%

2031 2.02% 0.04% 0.20% - 0.24%

2041 2.02% 0.04% 0.20% - 0.24%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011

to 2041

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence

Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence Scenario


Page | 39

2.1.3 ODD

Figure 10 Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 10 compares the estimated number of Canadian youth with ODD at the baseline to each of the


cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction in the number of youth living with ODD.



75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence)- Male


30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence)- Female



Page | 40

Figure 11 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s


Scenarios- Female


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s


Scenarios- Male



Page | 41

Figure 12 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:


effects associated with ODD by 2021 (a 0.08% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


living with ODD by 2021 (a 0.35% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);

Reducing the relative risk associated with a prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence by

10% has a negligible short-term impact; and

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female


0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD for Each

of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


0.000%

0.005%

0.010%

0.015%

0.020%

0.025%

0.030%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


Page | 42


Canadian youth living with ODD by 2021 (a 0.43% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to



results:


effects associated with ODD by 2041 (a 0.08% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


living with ODD by 2041 (a 0.37% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);

Reducing the relative risk associated with a prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence has

a negligible short-term impact; and


Canadian youth living with ODD by 2041 (a 0.45% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to


Table 11 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 86,557 2,002 7,943 - 9,790

2031 94,535 2,299 9,302 - 11,380

2041 98,037 2,389 9,644 - 11,803

2021 49,123 1,144 4,505 - 5,562

2031 53,691 1,315 5,279 - 6,470

2041 55,679 1,367 5,473 - 6,710

2021 37,434 858 3,438 - 4,228

2031 40,844 984 4,023 - 4,910

2041 42,359 1,022 4,171 - 5,093

Baseline Number

of People


Total

Male

Female

Impact of Different Intervention Scenarios on the Estimated Number of People with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) Aged 9

to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Page | 43

Table 12 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 3.80% 0.08% 0.35% - 0.43%

2031 3.80% 0.08% 0.37% - 0.45%

2041 3.79% 0.08% 0.37% - 0.45%

Male 2021 4.20% 0.09% 0.39% - 0.47%

2031 4.20% 0.09% 0.41% - 0.50%

2041 4.20% 0.09% 0.41% - 0.50%

Female 2021 3.37% 0.07% 0.31% - 0.38%

2031 3.37% 0.07% 0.33% - 0.40%

2041 3.37% 0.07% 0.33% - 0.40%

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence


Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to

2041


Page | 44

2.1.4 CONDUCT DISORDERS

Figure 13 Estimated Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 13 compares the estimated number of Canadian youth with conduct disorder at the baseline to

each of the hypothetical scenarios over a 30-year simulation period. For both males and females,

reducing the all cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction in the number of youth

living with conduct disorder. The estimated reduction in these numbers is shown in Figure 14. The

reduction in prevalence as a percentage of the population is shown in Figure 15.

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence)- Male


20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence)- Female



Page | 45

Figure 14 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-

Female


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-

Male



Page | 46

Figure 15 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:


effects associated with conduct disorders by 2021 (a 0.07% reduction in 12-month prevalence



living with conduct disorders by 2021 (a 0.35% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-

Female


0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct

Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios-Male


0.000%

0.005%

0.010%

0.015%

0.020%

0.025%

0.030%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


Page | 47

By reducing the relative risk associated with a prior mental illness in childhood or adolescence, it

is estimated that 50 fewer Canadian youth will be living with conduct disorders by 2021 (a

negligible reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and


Canadian youth living with conduct disorders by 2021 (a 0.42% reduction in 12-month

prevalence relative to the baseline model).


results:


effects associated with conduct disorders by 2041 (a 0.07% reduction in 12-month prevalence



living with conduct disorders by 2041 (a 0.37% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


is estimated that 50 fewer Canadian youth will be living with conduct disorders by 2041 (a

negligible reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and


Canadian youth living with conduct disorders by 2041 (a 0.44% reduction in 12-month



Page | 48

Table 13 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 14 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 87,689 1,679 8,033 51 9,622

2031 96,035 1,940 9,476 57 11,273

2041 99,605 2,016 9,826 59 11,693

2021 62,143 1,197 5,675 34 6,806

2031 68,095 1,383 6,695 39 7,975

2041 70,625 1,437 6,942 41 8,272

2021 25,546 483 2,358 16 2,816

2031 27,941 557 2,781 18 3,297

2041 28,980 579 2,884 19 3,420

Baseline Number

of People


Total

Male

Female

Impact of Different Intervention Scenarios on the Estimated Number of People with Conduct Disorder (12-Month

Prevalence) Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 3.80% 0.07% 0.35% 0.00% 0.42%

2031 3.80% 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2041 3.80% 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

Male 2021 5.25% 0.09% 0.49% 0.00% 0.57%

2031 5.25% 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2041 5.24% 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

Female 2021 2.27% 0.04% 0.21% 0.00% 0.25%

2031 2.27% 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2041 2.27% 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence


Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by

Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Page | 49

2.1.5 MOOD AND ANXIETY DISORDERS

Figure 16 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 16 compares the estimated number of Canadians with mood or anxiety disorders at the baseline

to each of the hypothetical scenarios over a 30-year simulation period. For both males and females,

reducing the all cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction in the number of people

living with mood or anxiety disorders. The estimated reduction in these numbers is shown in Figure 17.

The reduction in prevalence as a percentage of the population is shown in Figure 18.

4,000,000

4,100,000

4,200,000

4,300,000

4,400,000

4,500,000

4,600,000

4,700,000

4,800,000

4,900,000

5,000,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence)- Male


1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence)- Female



Page | 50

Figure 17 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or

Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female


-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or

Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


Page | 51

Figure 18 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:

By increasing remission by 10%, an estimated 114,800 fewer Canadians will be living with the

effects associated with mood or anxiety disorders by 2021 (a 0.3% reduction in 12-month



living with a mood or anxiety disorders by 2021 (a 0.4% reduction in 12-month prevalence


0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or

Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female


0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or

Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


Page | 52


is estimated that 21,480 fewer Canadians will be living with mood or anxiety disorders by 2021

(a 0.1% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and


Canadians living with mood or anxiety disorders by 2021 (a 0.7% reduction in 12-month



results:


effects associated with mood or anxiety disorders by 2041 (a 0.6% reduction in 12-month



living with mood or anxiety disorders by 2041 (a 0.7% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative

to the baseline model);


is estimated that 36,800 fewer Canadians will be living with mood or anxiety disorders by 2041

(a 0.1% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model); and


Canadians living with mood or anxiety disorders by 2041 (a 1.4% reduction in 12-month



Page | 53

Table 15 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 16 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 4,352,884 114,804 150,666 21,484 280,452

2031 4,653,839 193,221 246,901 31,074 457,420

2041 4,932,117 253,938 321,093 36,804 591,166

2021 1,455,562 47,592 57,991 10,272 112,845

2031 1,537,179 77,405 93,508 14,682 179,309

2041 1,620,405 98,252 120,515 17,313 226,777

2021 2,897,321 67,213 92,676 11,212 167,607

2031 3,116,659 115,816 153,393 16,392 278,110

2041 3,311,712 155,686 200,578 19,491 364,389

Total

Male

Female

Impact of Different Intervention Scenarios on the Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-

Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline Number

of People



Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 11.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%

2031 11.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%

2041 11.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.4%

Male 2021 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%

2031 7.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%

2041 7.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%

Female 2021 15.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%

2031 15.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.4%

2041 15.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 1.7%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence



Page | 54

2.1.6 SCHIZOPHRENIA

Figure 19 Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 19 compares the estimated number of Canadians with schizophrenia at the baseline to each of

the hypothetical scenarios over a 30-year simulation period. For both males and females, reducing the

all cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction in the number of people living with

schizophrenia. The estimated reduction in these numbers is shown in Figure 20. The reduction in

prevalence as a percentage of the population is shown in Figure 21. It is important to note the baseline

model did not account for the relationship between a prior mental illness in youth (childhood or

adolescence) and adult schizophrenia. Therefore, for schizophrenia we do not report results for the

scenario associated with a prior mental illness in youth.

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

Combined

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence)- Male

Base Case Remission Incidence Combined

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence)- Female

Base Case Remission Incidence Combined


Page | 55

Figure 20 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

Combined

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the

Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female

Remission Incidence Combined

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with

Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male



Page | 56

Figure 21 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:


effects associated with schizophrenia by 2021 (a 0.01% reduction in 12-month prevalence


By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, it is estimated that 8,500 fewer Canadians will be living

with schizophrenia by 2021 (a 0.02% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model); and

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of

Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female


0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios- Male


0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

Combined


Page | 57


Canadians living with schizophrenia by 2021 (a 0.03% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative

to the baseline model).


results:


effects associated with schizophrenia by 2041 (a 0.02% reduction in 12-month prevalence



with schizophrenia by 2041 (a 0.05% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model); and


Canadians living with schizophrenia by 2041 (a 0.07% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative

to the baseline model).

Table 17 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 237,884 3,939 8,502 N/A* 12,274

2031 262,019 6,895 15,065 N/A* 21,556

2041 282,820 9,311 20,541 N/A* 29,185

2021 116,245 1,613 3,558 N/A* 5,087

2031 126,921 2,847 6,370 N/A* 9,027

2041 136,434 3,969 8,914 N/A* 12,577

2021 121,639 2,325 4,943 N/A* 7,187

2031 135,098 4,049 8,695 N/A* 12,529

2041 146,386 5,342 11,627 N/A* 16,607

N/A*: not included in model

Total

Male

Female

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to

2041

Baseline Number

of People



Page | 58

Table 18 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with Schizophrenia for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 0.63% 0.01% 0.02% N/A* 0.03%

2031 0.64% 0.02% 0.04% N/A* 0.05%

2041 0.65% 0.02% 0.05% N/A* 0.07%

Male 2021 0.62% 0.01% 0.02% N/A* 0.03%

2031 0.63% 0.01% 0.03% N/A* 0.05%

2041 0.64% 0.02% 0.04% N/A* 0.06%

Female 2021 0.64% 0.01% 0.03% N/A* 0.04%

2031 0.66% 0.02% 0.04% N/A* 0.06%

2041 0.67% 0.02% 0.05% N/A* 0.08%

N/A*: not included in model

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence



Page | 59

2.1.7 SUBSTANCE USE DISORDERS

Figure 22 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 22 compares the estimated number of Canadians with SUDs at the baseline to each of the


cause incidence rates by 10% produces the largest reduction in the number of people living with SUDs.



1,800,000

1,850,000

1,900,000

1,950,000

2,000,000

2,050,000

2,100,000

2,150,000

2,200,000

2,250,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence)

Base Case

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence)- Male


400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence)- Female



Page | 60

Figure 23 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios- Female


-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention

Scenarios- Male



Page | 61

Figure 24 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.




results:


effects associated with SUDs by 2021 (a 0.3% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


with SUDs by 2021 (a 0.2% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline model);


is estimated that 11,380 fewer Canadians will be living with SUDs by 2021 (a negligible reduction


0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Female


0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD for Each

of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios- Male


0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

12-

Mo

nth

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios

Remission

Incidence

RR

Combined


Page | 62


Canadians living with SUDs by 2021 (a 0.5% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model).


results:


effects associated with SUDs by 2041 (a 0.4% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model);


living with SUDs by 2041 (a 0.4% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the baseline

model);


is estimated that 20,170 fewer Canadians will be living with SUDs by 2041 (a negligible reduction



Canadians living with SUDs by 2041 (a 0.8% reduction in 12-month prevalence relative to the

baseline model).

Table 19 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 2,051,724 94,609 87,944 11,389 188,405

2031 2,126,694 139,039 134,155 16,426 279,104

2041 2,232,541 165,358 168,110 20,175 339,056

2021 1,489,380 60,448 58,097 7,931 123,292

2031 1,545,012 91,497 91,713 11,680 188,478

2041 1,621,258 110,151 116,704 14,476 232,198

2021 562,344 34,161 29,847 3,458 65,113

2031 581,682 47,542 42,442 4,746 90,626

2041 611,283 55,207 51,407 5,699 106,857

Impact of Different Intervention Scenarios on the Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in

Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline Number

of People


Total

Male

Female


Page | 63

Table 20 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in 12-Month Crude Prevalence of People with SUD for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

Total 2021 5.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%

2031 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%

2041 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8%

Male 2021 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%

2031 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%

2041 7.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1%

Female 2021 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%

2031 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%

2041 2.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Baseline 12-

Month

Prevalence



Page | 64

2.1.8 COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT INCLUDING DEMENTIA

Figure 25 Estimated Number of People with Dementia* for the Baseline Model, and All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Figure 25 compares the estimated number of Canadians with cognitive impairment including dementia

at baseline to each of the hypothetical scenarios over a 30-year simulation period. For both males and

females, reducing the all cause incidence rates by 10% produces a large reduction in the number of

people living with cognitive impairment including dementia. The estimated reduction in these numbers

is shown in Figure 26. The reduction in prevalence as a percentage of the population is shown in Figure

27. It is important to note the baseline model did not account for the relationship between a prior

mental illness in youth (childhood or adolescence) and later cognitive impairment including dementia.

Therefore, for dementia we do not report the results for the scenario associated with a prior mental

illness in youth. Similarly, within the model, once a person is diagnosed with cognitive impairment

including dementia it is assumed that remission is not possible. Therefore, for dementia we do not

report results for the reduction in remission rates scenario.

600,000

850,000

1,100,000

1,350,000

1,600,000

1,850,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence)

Base Case

Incidence

*Cognitiveimpairment including Dementia

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence)-

Male

Base Case Incidence

*Cognitive impairment including Dementia

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Nu

mb

er o

f Can

adia

ns

Estimated Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence)-Female

Base Case Incidence



Page | 65

Figure 26 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario.

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario

Incidence


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia*

(Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario- Female

Incidence


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Nu

mb

er o

f C

anad

ian

s

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia*

(Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario- Male

Incidence



Page | 66

Figure 27 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario.




results:

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, an estimated 66,160 fewer Canadians will be living with

cognitive impairment including dementia by 2021 (a 0.2% reduction in 12-month prevalence



results:

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* for the

Incidence Reduction Scenario- Female

Incidence


0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* for the Incidence Reduction Scenario- Male

Incidence


0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Re

du

ctio

n in

Pre

vale

nce

Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* for the Incidence Reduction Scenario

Remission

Incidence



Page | 67

By reducing all cause incidence by 10%, an estimated 152,770 fewer Canadians will be living

with cognitive impairment including dementia by 2041 (a 0.4% reduction in 12-month


Table 21 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario

Table 22 Estimated Baseline and Reduction in Crude Prevalence of People with Dementia* for All Cause Incidence Reduction Scenario

Year

Baseline Number

of PeopleReduce Incidence

2021 1,024,536 66,167

2031 1,436,694 117,874

2041 1,808,786 152,773

2021 421,484 28,626

2031 599,173 50,426

2041 753,349 64,845

2021 603,052 37,541

2031 837,522 67,448

2041 1,055,437 87,927

*Cognitive Impairment Including Dementia

Reduction in Estimated Prevalence of Dementia* in Canada,

by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Total

Male

Female

Year

Baseline 12-Month

PrevalenceReduce Incidence

2021 2.7% 0.2%

2031 3.5% 0.3%

2041 4.2% 0.4%

2021 2.3% 0.2%

2031 3.0% 0.3%

2041 3.5% 0.3%

2021 3.2% 0.2%

2031 4.1% 0.3%

2041 4.8% 0.4%


Reduction in Estimated Prevalence of Dementia* in Canada,


Total

Male

Female


Page | 68

2.2 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SCENARIOS

This section outlines the direct and indirect economic impacts of each scenario over the 30-year

simulation timeframe (from 2011 to 2041) for any mental illness. For detailed annual results and direct

costs attributable to dementia and non-dementia mental illness, please refer to Appendix B.

Figure 28 and Table 23 show the impact of each scenario on the direct health costs relative to the

baseline model for any mental illness over a 30-year timeframe in future value terms. Relative to the

baseline model, the short-term (2011-2021) impacts are expected to yield the following results:

By increasing remission rates by 10%, over $1.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved annually

in direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness by 2021;

By reducing the all cause incidence by 10%, over $4.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved

annually in direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness by 2021;


by 10%, over $129.5 million dollars are expected to be saved annually in direct health care costs

attributable to any mental illness by 2021; and

The combination of each of the above scenarios is expected to result in over $5.2 billion in

annual direct health care cost savings by 2021.


results:

By increasing remission rates by 10%, over $5.3 billion dollars are expected to be saved annually

in direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness by 2041;


annually in direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness by 2041;


by 10%, over $583.0 million dollars are expected to be saved annually in direct health care costs

attributable to any mental illness by 2041; and


annual direct health care cost savings by 2041.


Page | 69

Figure 28 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Table 23 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Relative to the baseline model, the cumulative short-term (2011-2021) impacts in 2011 present value

dollars (Table 24) are expected to yield the following results:

By increasing remission rates by 10%, over $4.6 billion dollars are expected to be saved in

cumulative direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness;

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

$30,000.0



Futu

re V

alu

e (

$ M

illi

on

s)

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041



Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 1,076.1$ 4,076.3$ 129.5$ 5,235.8$

2031 2,693.2$ 10,966.9$ 304.7$ 13,815.9$

2041 5,366.7$ 22,408.5$ 583.0$ 28,011.2$

*All includes ADHD, ODD, CD, SUD, Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, and Dementia

Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including

Dementia (Future Value Terms) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 (in $ Millions)


Page | 70

By reducing the all cause incidence by 10%, over $16.9 billion dollars are expected to be saved in



over $562.4 million dollars are expected to be saved in cumulative direct health care costs

attributable to any mental illness; and


cumulative direct health care cost savings.

Relative to the baseline model, the cumulative long-term (2011-2041) impacts in 2011 present value

dollars (Table 24) are expected to yield the following results:




in cumulative direct health care costs attributable to any mental illness;


over $4.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved in cumulative direct health care costs

attributable to any mental illness; and


cumulative direct health care cost savings.

Table 24 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Cumulative Present Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2021 4,647.1$ 16,993.4$ 562.4$ 22,034.0$

2031 16,458.1$ 63,866.6$ 1,930.4$ 81,487.7$

2041 35,279.9$ 141,964.5$ 4,007.0$ 179,338.3$


Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia

(Cumulative Present Value Terms) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 (in $ Millions)


Page | 71

Figure 29 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Annual Future Value Terms for each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 29 and Table 25 show the impact of each scenario on the indirect costs relative to the baseline

model for any mental illness over a 30-year timeframe in future value terms. Relative to the baseline

model, the short-term (2011-2021) impacts are expected to yield the following results:

By increasing remission rates by 10%, over $88.6 million dollars are expected to be saved in

annual wage-based productivity costs by 2021;

By reducing the all cause incidence by 10%, over $191.9 million dollars are expected to be saved

in annual wage-based productivity costs by 2021;

By reducing the economic disability by 10%, over $2.3 billion dollars are expected to be saved in



over $25.6 million dollars are expected to be saved in annual wage-based productivity costs by

2021; and

$-

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

$9,000.0

$10,000.0

Reduced Disability

Increase Remission

Reduce Incidence



Futu

re V

alu

e ($

Mil

lio

ns)

Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefit for All* Disorders Including


2011 2021 2031 2041

All* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD, Dementia


Page | 72


annual wage-based productivity cost savings by 2021.


results:





By reducing the economic disability by 10%, over $6.7 billion dollars are expected to be saved in



over $205.0 million dollars are expected to be saved in annual wage-based productivity costs by

2041; and


annual wage-based productivity cost savings by 2041.

Table 25 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Relative to the baseline model, the cumulative short-term (2011-2021) indirect impacts in 2011 present

value dollars (Table 26) are expected to yield the following results:

By increasing remission rates by 10% over $83.3 million dollars are expected to be saved in

cumulative wage-based productivity costs;

Year Reduced Disability Increase Remission Reduce Incidence

Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,583.5$ -$ -$ -$ 1,584.6$

2021 2,377.4$ 88.6$ 191.9$ 25.6$ 2,591.8$

2031 3,735.6$ 608.7$ 580.4$ 76.0$ 4,698.4$

2041 6,786.4$ 1,735.9$ 1,715.5$ 205.0$ 9,622.3$


Estimated Total Indirect Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia (Future Value Terms) in

Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 (in $ Millions)


Page | 73

By reducing the all cause incidence by 10% over $1.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved in

cumulative wage-based productivity costs;

By reducing the economic disability by 10%, over $19.2 billion dollars are expected to be saved

in cumulative wage-based productivity costs;


by 10%, over $141.1 million dollars are expected to be saved in cumulative wage-based

productivity costs; and


cumulative wage-based productivity costs.

Relative to the baseline model, the cumulative long-term (2011-2041) indirect impacts in 2011 present

value dollars are expected to yield the following results:

By increasing remission rates by 10%, over $7.5 billion dollars are expected to be saved in wage-

based productivity costs by 2041;


cumulative wage-based productivity costs by 2041;

By reducing the economic disability by 10%, over $63.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved

in cumulative wage-based productivity costs by 2041;


over $1.0 billion dollars are expected to be saved in cumulative wage-based productivity costs

by 2041; and


cumulative wage-based productivity costs by 2041.


Page | 74

Table 26 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Cumulative Present Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Reduced Disability Increase Remission Reduce Incidence

Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,583.5$ -$ -$ -$ 1,584.6$

2021 19,260.7$ 83.3$ 1,091.8$ 141.1$ 20,157.1$

2031 38,142.7$ 2,045.9$ 3,329.4$ 439.9$ 42,357.9$

2041 63,097.3$ 7,587.2$ 8,625.2$ 1,090.8$ 76,189.1$


Estimated Total Indirect Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Including Dementia (Cumulative Present Value

Terms) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 (in $ Millions)


Page | 75

3 CONCLUSIONS

3.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study examined five hypothetical intervention scenarios across four target areas for mental illness

including: prevention, risk reduction, remission, and workplace disability reduction. Each scenario and

the combination of all scenarios were evaluated against the baseline model outcomes from our previous

analysis to determine the impact on 12-month prevalence, direct health care costs and indirect wage-

based productivity costs.

When compared to the baseline model from our previous study, the hypothetical scenarios resulted in a

significant reduction in 12-month prevalence, direct health care costs and indirect wage-based

productivity costs and the benefits continued to grow in the long-term. Although the benefits were

small in the short-term, the incremental impacts over the 30-year timeframe cumulatively results in a

significant long-term benefit. The combination of all intervention scenarios over the next 30 years is

expected to reduce the number of people living with mental illness in 2041 from 8.9 million to 7.9

million, a 2.3% reduction from the current prevalence in 2011. As the interventions targeted incidence

and remission rates, people in the population who were living with mental illness when interventions

began continued to do so. Over time, as fewer people become ill for the first time, or enter remission

more quickly, the proportion of the population living with mental illness decreases. The decrease in

prevalence is expected to reduce the cumulative direct health care costs by over $173.3 billion dollars (a

7.5% reduction from the base case) over the next 30 years. Furthermore, the combined impact of the

intervention scenarios is expected to significantly reduce the cumulative wage-based productivity costs

by over $76.1 billion over the next 30 years.

It is important to note that this analysis did not include specific mental health intervention programs to

illustrate how these targets could be met. Rather the interventions were hypothetical scenarios that

demonstrated the high level potential impacts relative to the baseline outcomes that could be met if a

10% improvement across each target area could be achieved. In addition, the hypothetical scenarios

may have additional benefits not taken into consideration for this analysis such as improvements in

activities of daily living, quality of life, comorbid health conditions or the burdens placed on informal

caregivers.


Page | 76

Although the scope of this analysis did not investigate the impacts of specific evidence based

intervention, the Life at Risk Mental Illness platform has been designed for and is capable of evaluating

the potential impacts of any evidence based intervention that may be part of any future research

questions or research priority areas.


Page | 77

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Smetanin, P., Stiff, D., Briante, C., Ahmad, S. and Khan, M. The Life and Economic Impact of Major

Mental Illnesses in Canada: 2011 to 2041. RiskAnalytica, on behalf of the Mental Health Commission of

Canada 2011.


Page | 78

A DETAILED LIFE AT RISK METHODOLOGY

For a detailed methodology on the Life at Risk model please refer to Smetanin et al. (2011).


Page | 79

B DETAILED RESULTS

B.1.1 ANY MENTAL ILLNESS

Table 27 Estimated Number of Males with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 3,178,894 3,178,894 3,178,894 3,178,894 3,178,894

2012 3,202,389 3,188,714 3,182,259 3,200,864 3,167,281

2013 3,222,682 3,196,879 3,184,846 3,219,804 3,156,692

2014 3,242,124 3,205,362 3,188,234 3,237,984 3,148,208

2015 3,262,136 3,215,330 3,193,384 3,256,789 3,142,486

2016 3,283,459 3,227,367 3,200,801 3,276,958 3,139,862

2017 3,306,397 3,241,665 3,210,673 3,298,808 3,140,415

2018 3,330,858 3,258,024 3,222,839 3,322,251 3,143,882

2019 3,356,761 3,276,278 3,237,157 3,347,212 3,150,039

2020 3,384,161 3,296,445 3,253,614 3,373,742 3,158,827

2021 3,412,906 3,318,347 3,271,997 3,401,683 3,169,997

2022 3,442,802 3,341,765 3,292,049 3,430,835 3,183,258

2023 3,473,634 3,366,458 3,313,498 3,460,973 3,198,304

2024 3,505,209 3,392,210 3,336,096 3,491,898 3,214,856

2025 3,537,340 3,418,811 3,359,610 3,523,417 3,232,651

2026 3,569,847 3,446,061 3,383,825 3,555,344 3,251,447

2027 3,602,602 3,473,814 3,408,582 3,587,547 3,271,062

2028 3,635,489 3,501,934 3,433,739 3,619,907 3,291,333

2029 3,668,389 3,530,283 3,459,160 3,652,301 3,312,101

2030 3,701,202 3,558,746 3,484,729 3,684,626 3,333,234

2031 3,733,855 3,587,236 3,510,362 3,716,810 3,354,631

2032 3,766,302 3,615,691 3,535,999 3,748,804 3,376,218

2033 3,798,502 3,644,060 3,561,589 3,780,564 3,397,929

2034 3,830,406 3,672,284 3,587,073 3,812,042 3,419,696

2035 3,861,973 3,700,312 3,612,401 3,843,196 3,441,458

2036 3,893,165 3,728,096 3,637,525 3,873,985 3,463,156

2037 3,923,937 3,755,583 3,662,394 3,904,365 3,484,731

2038 3,954,271 3,782,748 3,686,984 3,934,316 3,506,148

2039 3,984,145 3,809,560 3,711,264 3,963,815 3,527,372

2040 4,013,549 3,836,004 3,735,221 3,992,853 3,548,381

2041 4,042,493 3,862,083 3,758,857 4,021,438 3,569,170

Estimated Number of Males with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) in


Scenario


Page | 80

Table 28 Estimated Number of Females with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 3,617,413 3,617,413 3,617,413 3,617,413 3,617,413

2012 3,652,621 3,639,861 3,631,559 3,650,982 3,617,418

2013 3,686,738 3,662,706 3,647,130 3,683,657 3,620,630

2014 3,720,824 3,686,583 3,664,398 3,716,443 3,626,793

2015 3,755,582 3,711,945 3,683,606 3,750,017 3,635,844

2016 3,791,428 3,739,050 3,704,897 3,784,778 3,647,740

2017 3,828,627 3,768,048 3,728,364 3,820,982 3,662,442

2018 3,867,285 3,798,972 3,753,986 3,858,722 3,679,841

2019 3,907,266 3,831,610 3,781,548 3,897,857 3,699,641

2020 3,948,436 3,865,782 3,810,852 3,938,247 3,721,587

2021 3,990,654 3,901,308 3,841,701 3,979,744 3,745,442

2022 4,033,806 3,938,045 3,873,935 4,022,229 3,771,007

2023 4,077,802 3,975,879 3,907,418 4,065,605 3,798,117

2024 4,122,522 4,014,665 3,941,992 4,109,746 3,826,584

2025 4,167,799 4,054,211 3,977,457 4,154,481 3,856,177

2026 4,213,519 4,094,378 4,013,667 4,199,690 3,886,724

2027 4,259,579 4,135,055 4,050,500 4,245,266 3,918,087

2028 4,305,830 4,176,082 4,087,793 4,291,059 3,950,089

2029 4,352,109 4,217,283 4,125,368 4,336,901 3,982,543

2030 4,398,248 4,258,483 4,163,052 4,382,625 4,015,263

2031 4,444,095 4,299,520 4,200,682 4,428,077 4,048,076

2032 4,489,507 4,340,244 4,238,110 4,473,113 4,080,826

2033 4,534,357 4,380,522 4,275,202 4,517,604 4,113,370

2034 4,578,535 4,420,237 4,311,841 4,561,439 4,145,585

2035 4,621,946 4,459,291 4,347,928 4,604,523 4,177,367

2036 4,664,516 4,497,602 4,383,382 4,646,781 4,208,628

2037 4,706,186 4,535,110 4,418,137 4,688,151 4,239,299

2038 4,746,916 4,571,772 4,452,150 4,728,595 4,269,333

2039 4,786,687 4,607,566 4,485,392 4,768,092 4,298,698

2040 4,825,490 4,642,480 4,517,851 4,806,633 4,327,378

2041 4,863,338 4,676,526 4,549,531 4,844,229 4,355,374

Estimated Number of Females with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) in


Scenario


Page | 81

Table 29 Estimated Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 6,796,306 6,796,306 6,796,306 6,796,306 6,796,306

2012 6,855,010 6,828,575 6,813,818 6,851,846 6,784,699

2013 6,909,420 6,859,584 6,831,976 6,903,461 6,777,322

2014 6,962,947 6,891,945 6,852,631 6,954,427 6,775,002

2015 7,017,718 6,927,275 6,876,990 7,006,806 6,778,330

2016 7,074,886 6,966,417 6,905,699 7,061,737 6,787,602

2017 7,135,024 7,009,714 6,939,037 7,119,789 6,802,857

2018 7,198,144 7,056,996 6,976,825 7,180,973 6,823,723

2019 7,264,027 7,107,888 7,018,705 7,245,069 6,849,680

2020 7,332,597 7,162,227 7,064,465 7,311,989 6,880,414

2021 7,403,560 7,219,655 7,113,697 7,381,427 6,915,439

2022 7,476,608 7,279,810 7,165,984 7,453,064 6,954,265

2023 7,551,437 7,342,337 7,220,916 7,526,578 6,996,421

2024 7,627,731 7,406,875 7,278,087 7,601,644 7,041,440

2025 7,705,139 7,473,022 7,337,067 7,677,898 7,088,827

2026 7,783,365 7,540,439 7,397,493 7,755,034 7,138,171

2027 7,862,180 7,608,869 7,459,082 7,832,813 7,189,149

2028 7,941,319 7,678,015 7,521,533 7,910,966 7,241,422

2029 8,020,498 7,747,566 7,584,528 7,989,202 7,294,644

2030 8,099,450 7,817,229 7,647,781 8,067,252 7,348,496

2031 8,177,950 7,886,756 7,711,044 8,144,888 7,402,707

2032 8,255,809 7,955,935 7,774,109 8,221,917 7,457,043

2033 8,332,858 8,024,582 7,836,790 8,298,168 7,511,298

2034 8,408,941 8,092,521 7,898,914 8,373,481 7,565,282

2035 8,483,920 8,159,603 7,960,329 8,447,719 7,618,825

2036 8,557,681 8,225,698 8,020,906 8,520,766 7,671,784

2037 8,630,123 8,290,693 8,080,531 8,592,515 7,724,030

2038 8,701,187 8,354,520 8,139,133 8,662,911 7,775,481

2039 8,770,831 8,417,125 8,196,657 8,731,907 7,826,070

2040 8,839,039 8,478,484 8,253,072 8,799,486 7,875,759

2041 8,905,831 8,538,609 8,308,388 8,865,668 7,924,544

Scenario

Estimated Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) in



Page | 82

Table 30 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 13,675 20,131 1,526 35,108

2013 25,803 37,836 2,878 65,990

2014 36,762 53,890 4,140 93,915

2015 46,806 68,752 5,347 119,649

2016 56,092 82,657 6,500 143,597

2017 64,732 95,724 7,590 165,982

2018 72,834 108,020 8,607 186,976

2019 80,484 119,604 9,549 206,723

2020 87,716 130,547 10,419 225,334

2021 94,559 140,909 11,223 242,909

2022 101,037 150,753 11,968 259,544

2023 107,177 160,137 12,661 275,330

2024 112,999 169,113 13,311 290,353

2025 118,529 177,730 13,923 304,689

2026 123,785 186,021 14,502 318,400

2027 128,788 194,020 15,054 331,539

2028 133,556 201,750 15,582 344,156

2029 138,106 209,229 16,088 356,288

2030 142,456 216,473 16,575 367,968

2031 146,619 223,493 17,045 379,224

2032 150,611 230,303 17,498 390,085

2033 154,442 236,913 17,938 400,573

2034 158,122 243,333 18,364 410,710

2035 161,661 249,572 18,778 420,515

2036 165,069 255,640 19,180 430,009

2037 168,354 261,543 19,572 439,206

2038 171,523 267,288 19,955 448,123

2039 174,585 272,881 20,330 456,772

2040 177,545 278,328 20,696 465,168

2041 180,410 283,636 21,054 473,323

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Any* Mental Illness (12-


Scenario


Page | 83

Table 31 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 12,759 21,062 1,638 35,202

2013 24,032 39,608 3,081 66,107

2014 34,240 56,426 4,380 94,030

2015 43,637 71,977 5,565 119,738

2016 52,378 86,531 6,649 143,687

2017 60,579 100,263 7,646 166,185

2018 68,314 113,299 8,564 187,444

2019 75,655 125,718 9,409 207,625

2020 82,654 137,585 10,189 226,849

2021 89,347 148,954 10,910 245,212

2022 95,761 159,872 11,577 262,799

2023 101,923 170,384 12,197 279,685

2024 107,857 180,530 12,776 295,938

2025 113,588 190,343 13,318 311,622

2026 119,141 199,851 13,829 326,795

2027 124,523 209,078 14,313 341,492

2028 129,749 218,037 14,772 355,741

2029 134,826 226,741 15,208 369,566

2030 139,766 235,196 15,623 382,986

2031 144,575 243,413 16,018 396,019

2032 149,262 251,397 16,394 408,681

2033 153,835 259,155 16,753 420,987

2034 158,298 266,694 17,096 432,949

2035 162,656 274,018 17,423 444,579

2036 166,914 281,135 17,736 455,889

2037 171,076 288,049 18,035 466,887

2038 175,144 294,766 18,321 477,583

2039 179,121 301,294 18,595 487,989

2040 183,010 307,639 18,858 498,113

2041 186,813 313,807 19,109 507,964

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Any* Mental Illness (12-


Scenario


Page | 84

Table 32 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any Mental Illness (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 26,434 41,192 3,164 70,311

2013 49,835 77,444 5,958 132,097

2014 71,002 110,316 8,520 187,945

2015 90,442 140,728 10,912 239,388

2016 108,470 169,188 13,149 287,284

2017 125,311 195,987 15,235 332,168

2018 141,148 221,319 17,171 374,420

2019 156,139 245,322 18,958 414,348

2020 170,370 268,132 20,608 452,183

2021 183,905 289,863 22,133 488,122

2022 196,798 310,625 23,545 522,343

2023 209,099 330,521 24,858 555,015

2024 220,856 349,643 26,087 586,291

2025 232,117 368,072 27,241 616,312

2026 242,926 385,873 28,332 645,195

2027 253,311 403,098 29,367 673,031

2028 263,304 419,787 30,354 699,897

2029 272,933 435,970 31,296 725,854

2030 282,222 451,669 32,198 750,954

2031 291,195 466,907 33,063 775,243

2032 299,874 481,700 33,892 798,766

2033 308,277 496,068 34,691 821,560

2034 316,420 510,027 35,459 843,659

2035 324,317 523,591 36,200 865,095

2036 331,983 536,775 36,916 885,897

2037 339,430 549,591 37,607 906,093

2038 346,667 562,054 38,276 925,706

2039 353,706 574,175 38,924 944,761

2040 360,555 585,967 39,553 963,280

2041 367,222 597,443 40,163 981,287

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Any* Mental Illness (12-


Scenario


Page | 85

Table 33 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 0.08% 0.12% 0.01% 0.20%

2013 0.15% 0.22% 0.02% 0.38%

2014 0.21% 0.31% 0.02% 0.54%

2015 0.26% 0.39% 0.03% 0.68%

2016 0.31% 0.46% 0.04% 0.81%

2017 0.36% 0.53% 0.04% 0.92%

2018 0.40% 0.60% 0.05% 1.03%

2019 0.44% 0.65% 0.05% 1.13%

2020 0.48% 0.71% 0.06% 1.22%

2021 0.51% 0.76% 0.06% 1.31%

2022 0.54% 0.80% 0.06% 1.38%

2023 0.57% 0.85% 0.07% 1.46%

2024 0.59% 0.89% 0.07% 1.52%

2025 0.62% 0.93% 0.07% 1.59%

2026 0.64% 0.96% 0.08% 1.65%

2027 0.66% 1.00% 0.08% 1.70%

2028 0.68% 1.03% 0.08% 1.75%

2029 0.70% 1.06% 0.08% 1.80%

2030 0.72% 1.09% 0.08% 1.85%

2031 0.73% 1.12% 0.09% 1.89%

2032 0.75% 1.14% 0.09% 1.93%

2033 0.76% 1.17% 0.09% 1.97%

2034 0.77% 1.19% 0.09% 2.01%

2035 0.79% 1.21% 0.09% 2.04%

2036 0.80% 1.24% 0.09% 2.08%

2037 0.81% 1.26% 0.09% 2.11%

2038 0.82% 1.28% 0.10% 2.14%

2039 0.83% 1.30% 0.10% 2.17%

2040 0.84% 1.31% 0.10% 2.19%

2041 0.85% 1.33% 0.10% 2.22%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness in Males in Canada, by Scenario,

2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 86

Table 34 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 0.07% 0.12% 0.01% 0.20%

2013 0.14% 0.22% 0.02% 0.37%

2014 0.19% 0.32% 0.02% 0.53%

2015 0.24% 0.40% 0.03% 0.67%

2016 0.29% 0.48% 0.04% 0.79%

2017 0.33% 0.55% 0.04% 0.91%

2018 0.37% 0.61% 0.05% 1.01%

2019 0.41% 0.67% 0.05% 1.11%

2020 0.44% 0.73% 0.05% 1.21%

2021 0.47% 0.79% 0.06% 1.29%

2022 0.50% 0.84% 0.06% 1.38%

2023 0.53% 0.88% 0.06% 1.45%

2024 0.56% 0.93% 0.07% 1.52%

2025 0.58% 0.97% 0.07% 1.59%

2026 0.60% 1.01% 0.07% 1.66%

2027 0.63% 1.05% 0.07% 1.72%

2028 0.65% 1.09% 0.07% 1.78%

2029 0.67% 1.12% 0.08% 1.83%

2030 0.69% 1.16% 0.08% 1.88%

2031 0.71% 1.19% 0.08% 1.93%

2032 0.72% 1.22% 0.08% 1.98%

2033 0.74% 1.25% 0.08% 2.03%

2034 0.76% 1.28% 0.08% 2.07%

2035 0.77% 1.30% 0.08% 2.11%

2036 0.79% 1.33% 0.08% 2.15%

2037 0.80% 1.35% 0.08% 2.19%

2038 0.82% 1.38% 0.09% 2.23%

2039 0.83% 1.40% 0.09% 2.26%

2040 0.84% 1.42% 0.09% 2.30%

2041 0.86% 1.44% 0.09% 2.33%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness in Females in Canada, by Scenario,

2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 87

Table 35 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Any Mental Illness in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 0.08% 0.12% 0.01% 0.20%

2013 0.14% 0.22% 0.02% 0.38%

2014 0.20% 0.31% 0.02% 0.53%

2015 0.25% 0.39% 0.03% 0.67%

2016 0.30% 0.47% 0.04% 0.80%

2017 0.35% 0.54% 0.04% 0.92%

2018 0.39% 0.60% 0.05% 1.02%

2019 0.42% 0.66% 0.05% 1.12%

2020 0.46% 0.72% 0.06% 1.21%

2021 0.49% 0.77% 0.06% 1.30%

2022 0.52% 0.82% 0.06% 1.38%

2023 0.55% 0.87% 0.07% 1.45%

2024 0.57% 0.91% 0.07% 1.52%

2025 0.60% 0.95% 0.07% 1.59%

2026 0.62% 0.99% 0.07% 1.65%

2027 0.64% 1.02% 0.07% 1.71%

2028 0.66% 1.06% 0.08% 1.77%

2029 0.68% 1.09% 0.08% 1.82%

2030 0.70% 1.12% 0.08% 1.87%

2031 0.72% 1.15% 0.08% 1.91%

2032 0.74% 1.18% 0.08% 1.96%

2033 0.75% 1.21% 0.08% 2.00%

2034 0.77% 1.23% 0.09% 2.04%

2035 0.78% 1.26% 0.09% 2.08%

2036 0.79% 1.28% 0.09% 2.12%

2037 0.81% 1.31% 0.09% 2.15%

2038 0.82% 1.33% 0.09% 2.18%

2039 0.83% 1.35% 0.09% 2.22%

2040 0.84% 1.37% 0.09% 2.25%

2041 0.85% 1.39% 0.09% 2.28%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Any* Mental Illness in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 88

B.1.2 ADHD

Table 36 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 147,956 147,956 147,956 147,956 147,956

2012 147,125 146,208 145,329 147,072 144,369

2013 146,357 144,907 142,884 146,268 141,370

2014 145,772 143,984 140,680 145,661 138,827

2015 145,499 143,460 138,839 145,382 136,748

2016 145,724 143,473 137,552 145,605 135,273

2017 146,490 144,056 136,902 146,369 134,468

2018 147,745 145,152 136,887 147,623 134,324

2019 149,394 146,665 137,443 149,272 134,776

2020 151,320 148,475 138,463 151,196 135,710

2021 153,399 150,456 139,814 153,273 136,991

2022 155,517 152,492 141,359 155,388 138,476

2023 157,578 154,483 142,975 157,448 140,039

2024 159,511 156,356 144,565 159,379 141,581

2025 161,272 158,064 146,058 161,138 143,031

2026 162,838 159,584 147,415 162,702 144,349

2027 164,208 160,914 148,619 164,070 145,518

2028 165,395 162,067 149,672 165,255 146,541

2029 166,422 163,065 150,590 166,281 147,433

2030 167,316 163,934 151,393 167,174 148,213

2031 168,107 164,704 152,106 167,964 148,906

2032 168,821 165,400 152,750 168,677 149,534

2033 169,481 166,044 153,348 169,337 150,116

2034 170,108 166,656 153,914 169,963 150,669

2035 170,715 167,250 154,464 170,569 151,207

2036 171,313 167,836 155,006 171,167 151,737

2037 171,910 168,421 155,547 171,764 152,267

2038 172,511 169,010 156,092 172,365 152,801

2039 173,118 169,606 156,643 172,972 153,341

2040 173,734 170,210 157,200 173,587 153,888

2041 174,359 170,823 157,767 174,211 154,443

Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) in


Scenario


Page | 89

Table 37 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 22,045 22,045 22,045 22,045 22,045

2012 21,913 21,781 21,646 21,903 21,506

2013 21,786 21,576 21,264 21,769 21,042

2014 21,690 21,430 20,920 21,669 20,647

2015 21,649 21,355 20,637 21,626 20,329

2016 21,681 21,356 20,433 21,657 20,098

2017 21,791 21,440 20,320 21,766 19,963

2018 21,971 21,597 20,299 21,945 19,924

2019 22,208 21,814 20,362 22,182 19,972

2020 22,486 22,075 20,495 22,460 20,093

2021 22,786 22,362 20,679 22,760 20,266

2022 23,093 22,657 20,893 23,067 20,472

2023 23,393 22,946 21,121 23,366 20,692

2024 23,674 23,219 21,347 23,647 20,911

2025 23,931 23,468 21,560 23,903 21,119

2026 24,159 23,690 21,756 24,131 21,309

2027 24,360 23,885 21,930 24,331 21,478

2028 24,533 24,054 22,083 24,505 21,626

2029 24,684 24,200 22,216 24,655 21,756

2030 24,816 24,328 22,333 24,786 21,870

2031 24,932 24,442 22,438 24,903 21,971

2032 25,038 24,544 22,532 25,008 22,064

2033 25,135 24,640 22,620 25,106 22,149

2034 25,228 24,731 22,704 25,199 22,231

2035 25,318 24,819 22,785 25,289 22,310

2036 25,407 24,906 22,865 25,377 22,389

2037 25,496 24,993 22,945 25,466 22,467

2038 25,586 25,081 23,026 25,556 22,546

2039 25,676 25,170 23,108 25,646 22,626

2040 25,768 25,260 23,190 25,738 22,707

2041 25,861 25,351 23,274 25,831 22,790

Scenario

Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) in



Page | 90

Table 38 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 170,001 170,001 170,001 170,001 170,001

2012 169,038 167,989 166,976 168,975 165,875

2013 168,144 166,483 164,148 168,037 162,411

2014 167,461 165,414 161,600 167,330 159,474

2015 167,148 164,815 159,476 167,008 157,077

2016 167,406 164,830 157,986 167,263 155,371

2017 168,280 165,496 157,222 168,135 154,431

2018 169,716 166,749 157,186 169,569 154,248

2019 171,602 168,479 157,805 171,454 154,748

2020 173,806 170,550 158,958 173,656 155,803

2021 176,185 172,818 160,492 176,033 157,257

2022 178,610 175,149 162,252 178,455 158,948

2023 180,970 177,429 164,096 180,813 160,731

2024 183,185 179,575 165,911 183,026 162,492

2025 185,203 181,532 167,618 185,040 164,150

2026 186,997 183,274 169,170 186,833 165,657

2027 188,568 184,799 170,548 188,401 166,996

2028 189,928 186,121 171,755 189,760 168,167

2029 191,106 187,265 172,806 190,936 169,189

2030 192,132 188,262 173,727 191,961 170,083

2031 193,039 189,145 174,543 192,867 170,877

2032 193,858 189,944 175,283 193,685 171,597

2033 194,617 190,684 175,968 194,443 172,265

2034 195,336 191,387 176,618 195,161 172,900

2035 196,033 192,069 177,249 195,858 173,517

2036 196,720 192,742 177,871 196,545 174,126

2037 197,406 193,414 178,493 197,230 174,735

2038 198,097 194,091 179,118 197,920 175,347

2039 198,795 194,776 179,750 198,618 175,967

2040 199,502 195,470 180,391 199,324 176,595

2041 200,220 196,174 181,041 200,042 177,232

Scenario

Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) in



Page | 91

Table 39 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 917 1,796 54 2,756

2013 1,451 3,473 89 4,987

2014 1,788 5,092 110 6,945

2015 2,039 6,660 117 8,751

2016 2,251 8,172 119 10,451

2017 2,434 9,588 121 12,022

2018 2,593 10,858 122 13,421

2019 2,729 11,952 123 14,619

2020 2,845 12,858 124 15,610

2021 2,942 13,585 126 16,408

2022 3,025 14,158 128 17,041

2023 3,095 14,602 130 17,539

2024 3,155 14,947 132 17,931

2025 3,208 15,214 135 18,241

2026 3,254 15,424 137 18,489

2027 3,294 15,589 138 18,690

2028 3,328 15,723 140 18,854

2029 3,357 15,832 141 18,989

2030 3,382 15,923 142 19,103

2031 3,403 16,001 143 19,201

2032 3,421 16,070 144 19,287

2033 3,437 16,134 144 19,365

2034 3,452 16,193 145 19,438

2035 3,465 16,250 145 19,508

2036 3,477 16,307 146 19,576

2037 3,489 16,363 146 19,643

2038 3,501 16,419 146 19,710

2039 3,512 16,476 147 19,778

2040 3,524 16,533 147 19,846

2041 3,536 16,592 148 19,916

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD

(12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Page | 92

Table 40 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 132 267 - 408

2013 210 522 - 745

2014 259 769 - 1,042

2015 295 1,012 - 1,320

2016 325 1,248 - 1,583

2017 351 1,470 - 1,828

2018 374 1,671 - 2,047

2019 394 1,845 - 2,236

2020 410 1,990 - 2,393

2021 424 2,108 - 2,520

2022 436 2,200 - 2,621

2023 447 2,272 - 2,700

2024 455 2,327 - 2,763

2025 463 2,370 - 2,812

2026 469 2,404 - 2,851

2027 475 2,430 - 2,882

2028 480 2,451 - 2,907

2029 484 2,468 - 2,928

2030 488 2,482 - 2,946

2031 491 2,494 - 2,961

2032 493 2,505 - 2,974

2033 496 2,515 - 2,986

2034 498 2,524 - 2,997

2035 500 2,533 - 3,008

2036 501 2,542 - 3,019

2037 503 2,551 - 3,029

2038 505 2,560 - 3,039

2039 507 2,569 - 3,050

2040 508 2,578 - 3,061

2041 510 2,587 - 3,071

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Aged 9 to 19 Years Females with ADHD



Page | 93

Table 41 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 1,049 2,063 64 3,163

2013 1,661 3,995 106 5,732

2014 2,047 5,861 131 7,987

2015 2,334 7,673 140 10,071

2016 2,576 9,420 143 12,035

2017 2,785 11,058 145 13,849

2018 2,967 12,530 147 15,467

2019 3,123 13,797 148 16,854

2020 3,256 14,848 150 18,003

2021 3,367 15,693 152 18,929

2022 3,461 16,358 154 19,662

2023 3,541 16,874 157 20,239

2024 3,611 17,274 160 20,693

2025 3,671 17,584 162 21,053

2026 3,723 17,827 165 21,340

2027 3,769 18,019 167 21,572

2028 3,808 18,174 169 21,761

2029 3,841 18,300 170 21,917

2030 3,869 18,405 171 22,049

2031 3,894 18,496 172 22,162

2032 3,915 18,576 173 22,261

2033 3,933 18,649 174 22,351

2034 3,949 18,718 174 22,436

2035 3,964 18,784 175 22,516

2036 3,978 18,849 176 22,594

2037 3,992 18,914 176 22,672

2038 4,006 18,979 176 22,749

2039 4,019 19,045 177 22,828

2040 4,032 19,111 177 22,907

2041 4,046 19,179 178 22,987

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ADHD



Page | 94

Table 42 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.07% 0.22% 0.00% 0.30%

2013 0.12% 0.41% 0.01% 0.53%

2014 0.15% 0.56% 0.01% 0.71%

2015 0.17% 0.70% 0.01% 0.87%

2016 0.19% 0.81% 0.01% 1.00%

2017 0.20% 0.91% 0.01% 1.11%

2018 0.21% 1.00% 0.01% 1.21%

2019 0.22% 1.07% 0.01% 1.28%

2020 0.23% 1.12% 0.01% 1.34%

2021 0.23% 1.16% 0.01% 1.38%

2022 0.23% 1.19% 0.01% 1.41%

2023 0.23% 1.21% 0.01% 1.43%

2024 0.24% 1.22% 0.01% 1.44%

2025 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.45%

2026 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.45%

2027 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.45%

2028 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2029 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2030 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2031 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2032 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2033 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2034 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2035 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2036 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2037 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2038 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2039 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2040 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

2041 0.24% 1.23% 0.01% 1.46%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 95

Table 43 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.05%

2013 0.02% 0.06% 0.00% 0.08%

2014 0.02% 0.09% 0.00% 0.11%

2015 0.03% 0.11% 0.00% 0.14%

2016 0.03% 0.13% 0.00% 0.16%

2017 0.03% 0.15% 0.00% 0.18%

2018 0.03% 0.16% 0.00% 0.19%

2019 0.03% 0.17% 0.00% 0.21%

2020 0.03% 0.18% 0.00% 0.22%

2021 0.03% 0.19% 0.00% 0.22%

2022 0.04% 0.19% 0.00% 0.23%

2023 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.23%

2024 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.23%

2025 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.23%

2026 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2027 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2028 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2029 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2030 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2031 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2032 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2033 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2034 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2035 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2036 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2037 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2038 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2039 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2040 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

2041 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.24%

Scenario

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by



Page | 96

Table 44 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.13% 0.00% 0.17%

2013 0.00% 0.24% 0.00% 0.31%

2014 0.09% 0.33% 0.00% 0.42%

2015 0.10% 0.41% 0.00% 0.51%

2016 0.11% 0.48% 0.01% 0.59%

2017 0.12% 0.54% 0.01% 0.66%

2018 0.12% 0.59% 0.01% 0.71%

2019 0.13% 0.63% 0.01% 0.76%

2020 0.13% 0.66% 0.01% 0.79%

2021 0.13% 0.69% 0.01% 0.82%

2022 0.14% 0.70% 0.01% 0.83%

2023 0.14% 0.72% 0.01% 0.85%

2024 0.14% 0.72% 0.01% 0.85%

2025 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2026 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2027 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2028 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2029 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2030 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2031 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2032 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2033 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2034 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2035 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2036 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2037 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2038 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2039 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2040 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

2041 0.14% 0.73% 0.01% 0.86%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ADHD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 97

B.1.3 ODD

Table 45 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 47,674 47,674 47,674 47,674 47,674

2012 47,250 46,906 46,676 47,250 46,334

2013 46,857 46,301 45,733 46,857 45,182

2014 46,587 45,890 44,923 46,587 44,238

2015 46,486 45,684 44,292 46,485 43,510

2016 46,573 45,686 43,868 46,571 43,010

2017 46,842 45,884 43,661 46,839 42,743

2018 47,270 46,252 43,665 47,266 42,699

2019 47,821 46,752 43,852 47,816 42,849

2020 48,452 47,342 44,185 48,447 43,152

2021 49,123 47,979 44,618 49,118 43,561

2022 49,797 48,623 45,106 49,792 44,029

2023 50,446 49,246 45,612 50,441 44,515

2024 51,048 49,826 46,103 51,043 44,990

2025 51,592 50,351 46,562 51,586 45,434

2026 52,073 50,814 46,977 52,067 45,834

2027 52,492 51,219 47,344 52,487 46,189

2028 52,856 51,569 47,665 52,850 46,499

2029 53,170 51,873 47,946 53,165 46,770

2030 53,446 52,139 48,192 53,440 47,008

2031 53,691 52,376 48,412 53,685 47,221

2032 53,914 52,592 48,613 53,908 47,415

2033 54,122 52,793 48,800 54,116 47,597

2034 54,320 52,986 48,979 54,314 47,771

2035 54,513 53,174 49,153 54,507 47,940

2036 54,704 53,360 49,325 54,698 48,108

2037 54,895 53,547 49,498 54,889 48,277

2038 55,087 53,734 49,672 55,081 48,446

2039 55,282 53,924 49,847 55,276 48,618

2040 55,479 54,117 50,025 55,473 48,792

2041 55,679 54,312 50,206 55,673 48,968

Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) in


Scenario


Page | 98

Table 46 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 36,427 36,427 36,427 36,427 36,427

2012 36,104 35,843 35,667 36,104 35,407

2013 35,803 35,381 34,945 35,803 34,529

2014 35,592 35,065 34,323 35,592 33,806

2015 35,507 34,903 33,833 35,507 33,245

2016 35,562 34,895 33,499 35,562 32,855

2017 35,755 35,035 33,328 35,755 32,640

2018 36,067 35,302 33,315 36,066 32,592

2019 36,471 35,670 33,442 36,471 32,692

2020 36,937 36,105 33,680 36,937 32,909

2021 37,434 36,576 33,996 37,434 33,207

2022 37,935 37,055 34,355 37,934 33,551

2023 38,417 37,518 34,728 38,416 33,911

2024 38,865 37,950 35,093 38,865 34,263

2025 39,271 38,341 35,435 39,270 34,594

2026 39,630 38,688 35,744 39,629 34,893

2027 39,943 38,990 36,018 39,943 35,158

2028 40,215 39,253 36,259 40,215 35,390

2029 40,452 39,481 36,469 40,451 35,594

2030 40,659 39,681 36,655 40,659 35,773

2031 40,844 39,860 36,821 40,844 35,934

2032 41,012 40,023 36,973 41,012 36,081

2033 41,170 40,176 37,115 41,170 36,219

2034 41,321 40,323 37,251 41,321 36,351

2035 41,468 40,466 37,383 41,468 36,480

2036 41,614 40,608 37,515 41,613 36,609

2037 41,759 40,751 37,647 41,759 36,737

2038 41,906 40,894 37,779 41,906 36,867

2039 42,055 41,040 37,914 42,055 36,998

2040 42,206 41,187 38,050 42,206 37,131

2041 42,359 41,336 38,188 42,358 37,266

Scenario

Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) in



Page | 99

Table 47 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 84,101 84,101 84,101 84,101 84,101

2012 83,354 82,749 82,343 83,354 81,741

2013 82,660 81,682 80,678 82,660 79,711

2014 82,179 80,955 79,246 82,179 78,044

2015 81,993 80,587 78,125 81,992 76,754

2016 82,135 80,581 77,366 82,133 75,864

2017 82,597 80,918 76,989 82,594 75,383

2018 83,337 81,554 76,980 83,333 75,291

2019 84,292 82,422 77,295 84,287 75,541

2020 85,389 83,448 77,866 85,384 76,061

2021 86,557 84,555 78,614 86,552 76,768

2022 87,732 85,678 79,461 87,727 77,579

2023 88,863 86,765 80,340 88,857 78,426

2024 89,913 87,776 81,197 89,907 79,254

2025 90,863 88,692 81,997 90,857 80,027

2026 91,703 89,502 82,721 91,697 80,727

2027 92,436 90,209 83,362 92,430 81,347

2028 93,071 90,822 83,924 93,065 81,889

2029 93,622 91,354 84,415 93,616 82,363

2030 94,105 91,820 84,847 94,099 82,781

2031 94,535 92,236 85,233 94,529 83,155

2032 94,926 92,615 85,586 94,920 83,496

2033 95,292 92,970 85,915 95,285 83,816

2034 95,641 93,309 86,230 95,634 84,122

2035 95,981 93,640 86,536 95,975 84,421

2036 96,317 93,969 86,840 96,311 84,717

2037 96,654 94,297 87,144 96,648 85,014

2038 96,993 94,629 87,451 96,987 85,313

2039 97,337 94,964 87,761 97,330 85,616

2040 97,684 95,304 88,075 97,678 85,923

2041 98,037 95,648 88,393 98,031 86,234

Scenario

Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) in



Page | 100

Table 48 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 344 574 - 917

2013 557 1,125 - 1,675

2014 698 1,665 - 2,350

2015 802 2,194 - 2,977

2016 887 2,705 - 3,563

2017 958 3,181 - 4,099

2018 1,018 3,605 - 4,571

2019 1,068 3,968 - 4,971

2020 1,110 4,267 - 5,300

2021 1,144 4,505 - 5,562

2022 1,174 4,691 - 5,769

2023 1,200 4,834 - 5,931

2024 1,222 4,945 - 6,058

2025 1,241 5,030 - 6,158

2026 1,259 5,096 - 6,239

2027 1,274 5,148 - 6,304

2028 1,287 5,190 - 6,357

2029 1,298 5,225 - 6,401

2030 1,307 5,254 - 6,438

2031 1,315 5,279 - 6,470

2032 1,322 5,301 - 6,499

2033 1,328 5,322 - 6,525

2034 1,334 5,341 - 6,549

2035 1,339 5,360 - 6,573

2036 1,344 5,378 - 6,595

2037 1,348 5,397 - 6,618

2038 1,353 5,416 - 6,641

2039 1,357 5,434 - 6,664

2040 1,362 5,453 - 6,687

2041 1,367 5,473 - 6,710

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-


Scenario


Page | 101

Table 49 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 261 437 - 697

2013 421 857 - 1,274

2014 527 1,269 - 1,786

2015 604 1,674 - 2,262

2016 667 2,064 - 2,708

2017 720 2,427 - 3,115

2018 764 2,752 - 3,474

2019 801 3,029 - 3,779

2020 832 3,257 - 4,028

2021 858 3,438 - 4,228

2022 880 3,580 - 4,384

2023 898 3,689 - 4,506

2024 915 3,772 - 4,602

2025 929 3,836 - 4,677

2026 942 3,886 - 4,737

2027 953 3,925 - 4,785

2028 963 3,956 - 4,825

2029 971 3,982 - 4,858

2030 978 4,004 - 4,886

2031 984 4,023 - 4,910

2032 989 4,040 - 4,932

2033 994 4,055 - 4,951

2034 998 4,070 - 4,970

2035 1,002 4,084 - 4,987

2036 1,005 4,099 - 5,005

2037 1,009 4,113 - 5,022

2038 1,012 4,127 - 5,040

2039 1,015 4,141 - 5,057

2040 1,019 4,156 - 5,075

2041 1,022 4,171 - 5,093

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD



Page | 102

Table 50 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 606 1,011 - 1,613

2013 978 1,982 - 2,949

2014 1,224 2,934 - 4,136

2015 1,407 3,868 - 5,239

2016 1,555 4,769 - 6,271

2017 1,678 5,608 - 7,214

2018 1,783 6,357 - 8,045

2019 1,869 6,997 - 8,750

2020 1,942 7,524 - 9,328

2021 2,002 7,943 - 9,790

2022 2,054 8,271 - 10,153

2023 2,098 8,523 - 10,437

2024 2,137 8,717 - 10,659

2025 2,171 8,866 - 10,835

2026 2,201 8,982 - 10,976

2027 2,227 9,073 - 11,089

2028 2,249 9,147 - 11,182

2029 2,269 9,207 - 11,259

2030 2,285 9,258 - 11,324

2031 2,299 9,302 - 11,380

2032 2,311 9,341 - 11,430

2033 2,322 9,377 - 11,476

2034 2,331 9,411 - 11,519

2035 2,340 9,444 - 11,560

2036 2,349 9,477 - 11,600

2037 2,357 9,510 - 11,640

2038 2,365 9,543 - 11,680

2039 2,373 9,576 - 11,721

2040 2,381 9,609 - 11,762

2041 2,389 9,644 - 11,803

Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with ODD (12-


Scenario


Page | 103

Table 51 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.03% 0.07% 0.00% 0.10%

2013 0.05% 0.14% 0.00% 0.18%

2014 0.06% 0.19% 0.00% 0.25%

2015 0.07% 0.23% 0.00% 0.30%

2016 0.07% 0.27% 0.00% 0.34%

2017 0.08% 0.31% 0.00% 0.38%

2018 0.08% 0.34% 0.00% 0.41%

2019 0.09% 0.36% 0.00% 0.44%

2020 0.09% 0.38% 0.00% 0.46%

2021 0.09% 0.39% 0.00% 0.47%

2022 0.09% 0.40% 0.00% 0.48%

2023 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.49%

2024 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.49%

2025 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.49%

2026 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2027 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2028 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2029 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2030 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2031 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2032 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2033 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2034 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2035 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2036 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2037 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2038 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2039 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2040 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

2041 0.09% 0.41% 0.00% 0.50%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario,

2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 104

Table 52 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.02% 0.06% 0.00% 0.08%

2013 0.04% 0.11% 0.00% 0.14%

2014 0.05% 0.15% 0.00% 0.20%

2015 0.05% 0.19% 0.00% 0.24%

2016 0.06% 0.22% 0.00% 0.28%

2017 0.06% 0.25% 0.00% 0.31%

2018 0.06% 0.27% 0.00% 0.33%

2019 0.07% 0.29% 0.00% 0.35%

2020 0.07% 0.30% 0.00% 0.37%

2021 0.07% 0.31% 0.00% 0.38%

2022 0.07% 0.32% 0.00% 0.39%

2023 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.39%

2024 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.39%

2025 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2026 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2027 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2028 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2029 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2030 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2031 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2032 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2033 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2034 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2035 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2036 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2037 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2038 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2039 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2040 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2041 0.07% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

Scenario

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by



Page | 105

Table 53 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.03% 0.07% 0.00% 0.09%

2013 0.04% 0.12% 0.00% 0.16%

2014 0.05% 0.17% 0.00% 0.22%

2015 0.06% 0.21% 0.00% 0.27%

2016 0.07% 0.25% 0.00% 0.31%

2017 0.07% 0.28% 0.00% 0.35%

2018 0.07% 0.31% 0.00% 0.37%

2019 0.08% 0.33% 0.00% 0.40%

2020 0.08% 0.34% 0.00% 0.41%

2021 0.08% 0.35% 0.00% 0.43%

2022 0.08% 0.36% 0.00% 0.44%

2023 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2024 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2025 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2026 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2027 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2028 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2029 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2030 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2031 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2032 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2033 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2034 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2035 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2036 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2037 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2038 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2039 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2040 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

2041 0.08% 0.37% 0.00% 0.45%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of ODD in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario,

2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 106

B.1.4 CONDUCT DISORDER

Table 54 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 60,061 60,061 60,061 60,061 60,061

2012 59,680 59,294 58,946 59,667 58,550

2013 59,335 58,727 57,903 59,313 57,283

2014 59,054 58,310 56,950 59,027 56,195

2015 58,933 58,089 56,171 58,904 55,324

2016 59,026 58,101 55,629 58,995 54,710

2017 59,337 58,342 55,346 59,305 54,367

2018 59,846 58,790 55,321 59,814 54,293

2019 60,516 59,405 55,531 60,483 54,461

2020 61,299 60,141 55,931 61,265 54,828

2021 62,143 60,946 56,468 62,109 55,337

2022 63,002 61,772 57,086 62,967 55,930

2023 63,838 62,580 57,733 63,802 56,557

2024 64,621 63,338 58,370 64,585 57,175

2025 65,333 64,029 58,970 65,296 57,758

2026 65,966 64,644 59,514 65,929 58,287

2027 66,520 65,181 59,998 66,482 58,757

2028 66,999 65,647 60,421 66,961 59,168

2029 67,414 66,050 60,790 67,375 59,526

2030 67,775 66,401 61,113 67,736 59,840

2031 68,095 66,712 61,400 68,055 60,119

2032 68,383 66,993 61,659 68,344 60,372

2033 68,650 67,253 61,900 68,611 60,607

2034 68,904 67,501 62,129 68,864 60,830

2035 69,149 67,741 62,350 69,109 61,047

2036 69,392 67,978 62,569 69,352 61,261

2037 69,633 68,216 62,787 69,593 61,475

2038 69,877 68,454 63,007 69,837 61,690

2039 70,123 68,695 63,230 70,083 61,908

2040 70,372 68,940 63,455 70,332 62,129

2041 70,625 69,188 63,683 70,585 62,353

Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month

Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 107

Table 55 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 24,716 24,716 24,716 24,716 24,716

2012 24,561 24,406 24,258 24,554 24,097

2013 24,418 24,174 23,829 24,406 23,577

2014 24,315 24,016 23,446 24,301 23,140

2015 24,270 23,931 23,128 24,255 22,785

2016 24,306 23,934 22,900 24,291 22,527

2017 24,428 24,027 22,774 24,413 22,377

2018 24,630 24,204 22,753 24,614 22,335

2019 24,896 24,448 22,826 24,881 22,393

2020 25,208 24,741 22,978 25,192 22,532

2021 25,546 25,063 23,187 25,529 22,729

2022 25,890 25,394 23,430 25,873 22,963

2023 26,225 25,718 23,687 26,208 23,212

2024 26,539 26,022 23,941 26,522 23,458

2025 26,825 26,300 24,181 26,808 23,691

2026 27,080 26,548 24,399 27,063 23,904

2027 27,303 26,764 24,593 27,286 24,092

2028 27,497 26,952 24,764 27,479 24,258

2029 27,664 27,115 24,913 27,646 24,403

2030 27,811 27,258 25,043 27,793 24,530

2031 27,941 27,384 25,160 27,922 24,643

2032 28,058 27,498 25,265 28,040 24,746

2033 28,167 27,605 25,364 28,149 24,842

2034 28,271 27,706 25,457 28,253 24,933

2035 28,372 27,805 25,548 28,354 25,022

2036 28,472 27,903 25,638 28,453 25,110

2037 28,571 28,000 25,728 28,553 25,198

2038 28,672 28,099 25,818 28,653 25,287

2039 28,773 28,198 25,910 28,754 25,376

2040 28,876 28,299 26,002 28,857 25,467

2041 28,980 28,402 26,097 28,961 25,560

Scenario

Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month



Page | 108

Table 56 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 84,777 84,777 84,777 84,777 84,777

2012 84,241 83,700 83,204 84,221 82,648

2013 83,753 82,901 81,732 83,719 80,860

2014 83,369 82,326 80,396 83,328 79,335

2015 83,203 82,020 79,300 83,159 78,108

2016 83,332 82,035 78,529 83,286 77,236

2017 83,766 82,370 78,120 83,718 76,744

2018 84,476 82,993 78,073 84,428 76,628

2019 85,413 83,853 78,357 85,364 76,854

2020 86,507 84,883 78,910 86,458 77,359

2021 87,689 86,009 79,656 87,638 78,066

2022 88,892 87,166 80,516 88,841 78,894

2023 90,062 88,297 81,420 90,010 79,769

2024 91,160 89,360 82,311 91,107 80,634

2025 92,159 90,329 83,150 92,104 81,449

2026 93,047 91,191 83,913 92,992 82,191

2027 93,823 91,945 84,591 93,767 82,849

2028 94,496 92,599 85,185 94,440 83,426

2029 95,078 93,165 85,703 95,022 83,929

2030 95,586 93,658 86,157 95,529 84,370

2031 96,035 94,095 86,560 95,978 84,762

2032 96,441 94,491 86,925 96,384 85,118

2033 96,818 94,858 87,264 96,760 85,449

2034 97,175 95,207 87,586 97,117 85,763

2035 97,521 95,546 87,898 97,463 86,069

2036 97,863 95,881 88,207 97,805 86,371

2037 98,205 96,216 88,515 98,146 86,673

2038 98,548 96,553 88,825 98,490 86,977

2039 98,896 96,894 89,139 98,837 87,284

2040 99,248 97,239 89,457 99,189 87,596

2041 99,605 97,590 89,780 99,546 87,913

Scenario

Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month



Page | 109

Table 57 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 386 734 13 1,130

2013 608 1,432 22 2,052

2014 745 2,105 27 2,859

2015 844 2,762 29 3,609

2016 925 3,397 31 4,316

2017 995 3,991 32 4,970

2018 1,057 4,525 33 5,554

2019 1,111 4,986 33 6,055

2020 1,158 5,368 34 6,471

2021 1,197 5,675 34 6,806

2022 1,230 5,917 35 7,072

2023 1,258 6,105 36 7,281

2024 1,283 6,250 36 7,445

2025 1,304 6,364 37 7,576

2026 1,323 6,452 38 7,679

2027 1,339 6,522 38 7,763

2028 1,352 6,578 38 7,831

2029 1,364 6,624 39 7,887

2030 1,374 6,662 39 7,935

2031 1,383 6,695 39 7,975

2032 1,390 6,724 40 8,011

2033 1,397 6,750 40 8,044

2034 1,403 6,775 40 8,074

2035 1,408 6,799 40 8,103

2036 1,413 6,823 40 8,131

2037 1,418 6,846 40 8,159

2038 1,423 6,870 40 8,187

2039 1,427 6,893 40 8,215

2040 1,432 6,918 40 8,243

2041 1,437 6,942 41 8,272

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct

Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 110

Table 58 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 155 303 7 463

2013 244 589 12 841

2014 299 869 14 1,175

2015 339 1,142 15 1,486

2016 372 1,406 16 1,779

2017 401 1,654 16 2,052

2018 427 1,878 16 2,295

2019 448 2,070 16 2,504

2020 467 2,230 16 2,677

2021 483 2,358 16 2,816

2022 496 2,459 16 2,926

2023 507 2,538 17 3,013

2024 517 2,598 17 3,081

2025 525 2,645 17 3,134

2026 533 2,681 17 3,177

2027 539 2,710 18 3,211

2028 545 2,733 18 3,239

2029 549 2,752 18 3,262

2030 553 2,767 18 3,281

2031 557 2,781 18 3,297

2032 560 2,793 18 3,312

2033 562 2,804 18 3,325

2034 565 2,814 18 3,338

2035 567 2,824 18 3,350

2036 569 2,834 18 3,362

2037 571 2,844 19 3,373

2038 573 2,853 19 3,385

2039 575 2,863 19 3,396

2040 577 2,873 19 3,408

2041 579 2,884 19 3,420

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with

Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to

Scenario


Page | 111

Table 59 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 541 1,037 20 1,593

2013 852 2,021 34 2,893

2014 1,043 2,974 41 4,034

2015 1,183 3,904 44 5,095

2016 1,297 4,803 46 6,096

2017 1,396 5,645 47 7,022

2018 1,483 6,403 48 7,848

2019 1,560 7,056 49 8,559

2020 1,625 7,597 50 9,148

2021 1,679 8,033 51 9,622

2022 1,726 8,376 51 9,998

2023 1,765 8,642 52 10,294

2024 1,800 8,848 53 10,526

2025 1,829 9,008 54 10,710

2026 1,855 9,133 55 10,856

2027 1,878 9,232 56 10,974

2028 1,897 9,311 56 11,070

2029 1,914 9,375 57 11,149

2030 1,928 9,429 57 11,216

2031 1,940 9,476 57 11,273

2032 1,950 9,516 58 11,323

2033 1,959 9,554 58 11,369

2034 1,967 9,589 58 11,412

2035 1,975 9,623 58 11,453

2036 1,982 9,656 59 11,492

2037 1,989 9,690 59 11,532

2038 1,995 9,723 59 11,572

2039 2,002 9,757 59 11,611

2040 2,009 9,791 59 11,652

2041 2,016 9,826 59 11,693

Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct

Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 112

Table 60 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.03% 0.09% 0.00% 0.12%

2013 0.05% 0.17% 0.00% 0.22%

2014 0.06% 0.23% 0.00% 0.29%

2015 0.07% 0.29% 0.00% 0.36%

2016 0.08% 0.34% 0.00% 0.41%

2017 0.08% 0.38% 0.00% 0.46%

2018 0.09% 0.42% 0.00% 0.50%

2019 0.09% 0.45% 0.00% 0.53%

2020 0.09% 0.47% 0.00% 0.56%

2021 0.09% 0.49% 0.00% 0.57%

2022 0.09% 0.50% 0.00% 0.59%

2023 0.10% 0.50% 0.00% 0.59%

2024 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%

2025 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%

2026 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%

2027 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.60%

2028 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2029 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2030 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2031 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2032 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2033 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2034 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2035 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2036 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2037 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2038 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2039 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2040 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

2041 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada,


Scenario


Page | 113

Table 61 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 0.05%

2013 0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 0.09%

2014 0.03% 0.10% 0.00% 0.13%

2015 0.03% 0.13% 0.00% 0.16%

2016 0.03% 0.15% 0.00% 0.18%

2017 0.03% 0.17% 0.00% 0.20%

2018 0.04% 0.18% 0.00% 0.22%

2019 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.23%

2020 0.04% 0.21% 0.00% 0.24%

2021 0.04% 0.21% 0.00% 0.25%

2022 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%

2023 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%

2024 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%

2025 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%

2026 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2027 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2028 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2029 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2030 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2031 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2032 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2033 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2034 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2035 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2036 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2037 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2038 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2039 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2040 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

2041 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years in


Scenario


Page | 114

Table 62 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.02% 0.06% 0.00% 0.09%

2013 0.04% 0.12% 0.00% 0.16%

2014 0.04% 0.17% 0.00% 0.21%

2015 0.05% 0.21% 0.00% 0.26%

2016 0.06% 0.25% 0.00% 0.30%

2017 0.06% 0.28% 0.00% 0.33%

2018 0.06% 0.30% 0.00% 0.36%

2019 0.06% 0.32% 0.00% 0.39%

2020 0.07% 0.34% 0.00% 0.40%

2021 0.07% 0.35% 0.00% 0.42%

2022 0.07% 0.36% 0.00% 0.42%

2023 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.43%

2024 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.43%

2025 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2026 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2027 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2028 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2029 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2030 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2031 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2032 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2033 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2034 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2035 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2036 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2037 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2038 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2039 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2040 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

2041 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada,


Scenario


Page | 115

B.1.5 MOOD AND ANXIETY DISORDERS

Table 63 Estimated Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139

2012 1,371,820 1,365,698 1,363,197 1,370,113 1,355,584

2013 1,384,628 1,372,765 1,368,576 1,381,487 1,354,048

2014 1,395,017 1,377,763 1,372,354 1,390,631 1,351,479

2015 1,404,278 1,381,955 1,375,592 1,398,789 1,348,850

2016 1,413,059 1,385,958 1,378,792 1,406,581 1,346,596

2017 1,421,673 1,390,055 1,382,168 1,414,298 1,344,878

2018 1,430,239 1,394,337 1,385,777 1,422,045 1,343,707

2019 1,438,758 1,398,779 1,389,580 1,429,814 1,343,008

2020 1,447,200 1,403,329 1,393,520 1,437,565 1,342,694

2021 1,455,562 1,407,971 1,397,572 1,445,290 1,342,718

2022 1,463,869 1,412,716 1,401,741 1,453,008 1,343,067

2023 1,472,133 1,417,569 1,406,026 1,460,726 1,343,727

2024 1,480,361 1,422,528 1,410,420 1,468,445 1,344,676

2025 1,488,553 1,427,586 1,414,915 1,476,163 1,345,893

2026 1,496,710 1,432,734 1,419,499 1,483,878 1,347,356

2027 1,504,843 1,437,975 1,424,174 1,491,596 1,349,052

2028 1,512,953 1,443,303 1,428,932 1,499,316 1,350,964

2029 1,521,039 1,448,710 1,433,766 1,507,035 1,353,076

2030 1,529,111 1,454,198 1,438,677 1,514,759 1,355,378

2031 1,537,179 1,459,774 1,443,672 1,522,498 1,357,870

2032 1,545,263 1,465,451 1,448,761 1,530,268 1,360,555

2033 1,553,379 1,471,242 1,453,958 1,538,085 1,363,441

2034 1,561,543 1,477,157 1,459,272 1,545,962 1,366,531

2035 1,569,764 1,483,203 1,464,709 1,553,908 1,369,827

2036 1,578,047 1,489,382 1,470,272 1,561,927 1,373,324

2037 1,586,395 1,495,692 1,475,961 1,570,021 1,377,020

2038 1,594,808 1,502,131 1,481,772 1,578,188 1,380,907

2039 1,603,283 1,508,691 1,487,701 1,586,425 1,384,977

2040 1,611,817 1,515,368 1,493,742 1,594,728 1,389,221

2041 1,620,405 1,522,153 1,499,891 1,603,093 1,393,628

Estimated Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence)

in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 116

Table 64 Estimated Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608

2012 2,690,406 2,682,126 2,677,720 2,688,683 2,667,941

2013 2,714,428 2,698,329 2,690,368 2,711,186 2,671,539

2014 2,737,558 2,714,046 2,703,090 2,732,962 2,675,820

2015 2,760,302 2,729,742 2,716,168 2,754,489 2,680,983

2016 2,782,946 2,745,664 2,729,736 2,776,031 2,687,095

2017 2,805,689 2,761,976 2,743,880 2,797,770 2,694,179

2018 2,828,615 2,778,719 2,758,598 2,819,771 2,702,175

2019 2,851,588 2,795,728 2,773,711 2,841,892 2,710,860

2020 2,874,512 2,812,885 2,789,089 2,864,029 2,720,077

2021 2,897,321 2,830,109 2,804,645 2,886,109 2,729,714

2022 2,919,990 2,847,360 2,820,332 2,908,102 2,739,703

2023 2,942,528 2,864,636 2,836,135 2,930,010 2,750,014

2024 2,964,920 2,881,910 2,852,023 2,951,816 2,760,596

2025 2,987,122 2,899,117 2,867,930 2,973,466 2,771,358

2026 3,009,148 2,916,258 2,883,851 2,994,973 2,782,276

2027 3,031,033 2,933,364 2,899,805 3,016,367 2,793,362

2028 3,052,763 2,950,417 2,915,770 3,037,632 2,804,585

2029 3,074,302 2,967,376 2,931,698 3,058,729 2,815,891

2030 3,095,611 2,984,196 2,947,543 3,079,618 2,827,227

2031 3,116,659 3,000,843 2,963,267 3,100,267 2,838,549

2032 3,137,425 3,017,291 2,978,839 3,120,653 2,849,820

2033 3,157,895 3,033,522 2,994,237 3,140,761 2,861,013

2034 3,178,063 3,049,528 3,009,450 3,160,585 2,872,111

2035 3,197,933 3,065,309 3,024,472 3,180,126 2,883,107

2036 3,217,514 3,080,872 3,039,308 3,199,393 2,894,001

2037 3,236,820 3,096,232 3,053,966 3,218,399 2,904,799

2038 3,255,871 3,111,406 3,068,460 3,237,165 2,915,516

2039 3,274,690 3,126,417 3,082,808 3,255,710 2,926,165

2040 3,293,296 3,141,282 3,097,026 3,274,054 2,936,761

2041 3,311,712 3,156,026 3,111,133 3,292,220 2,947,323

Estimated Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month


Scenario


Page | 117

Table 65 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747

2012 4,062,225 4,047,824 4,040,917 4,058,796 4,023,525

2013 4,099,056 4,071,094 4,058,944 4,092,674 4,025,587

2014 4,132,575 4,091,809 4,075,444 4,123,593 4,027,299

2015 4,164,580 4,111,697 4,091,760 4,153,279 4,029,834

2016 4,196,005 4,131,623 4,108,528 4,182,613 4,033,692

2017 4,227,362 4,152,031 4,126,048 4,212,068 4,039,057

2018 4,258,854 4,173,057 4,144,375 4,241,816 4,045,882

2019 4,290,346 4,194,507 4,163,291 4,271,706 4,053,868

2020 4,321,712 4,216,214 4,182,609 4,301,594 4,062,771

2021 4,352,884 4,238,079 4,202,217 4,331,400 4,072,432

2022 4,383,859 4,260,076 4,222,072 4,361,110 4,082,771

2023 4,414,661 4,282,205 4,242,160 4,390,736 4,093,741

2024 4,445,281 4,304,439 4,262,443 4,420,260 4,105,272

2025 4,475,675 4,326,703 4,282,844 4,449,629 4,117,251

2026 4,505,858 4,348,992 4,303,350 4,478,851 4,129,632

2027 4,535,876 4,371,339 4,323,980 4,507,963 4,142,414

2028 4,565,716 4,393,720 4,344,702 4,536,948 4,155,549

2029 4,595,342 4,416,086 4,365,464 4,565,764 4,168,967

2030 4,624,722 4,438,394 4,386,220 4,594,377 4,182,606

2031 4,653,839 4,460,618 4,406,938 4,622,765 4,196,419

2032 4,682,688 4,482,742 4,427,599 4,650,921 4,210,375

2033 4,711,274 4,504,764 4,448,195 4,678,846 4,224,454

2034 4,739,606 4,526,685 4,468,722 4,706,547 4,238,642

2035 4,767,697 4,548,512 4,489,182 4,734,034 4,252,934

2036 4,795,561 4,570,254 4,509,581 4,761,320 4,267,325

2037 4,823,215 4,591,924 4,529,926 4,788,420 4,281,820

2038 4,850,679 4,613,537 4,550,232 4,815,353 4,296,423

2039 4,877,973 4,635,108 4,570,509 4,842,135 4,311,142

2040 4,905,113 4,656,650 4,590,769 4,868,783 4,325,982

2041 4,932,117 4,678,179 4,611,024 4,895,313 4,340,951

Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence)


Scenario


Page | 118

Table 66 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 6,121 8,622 1,706 16,235

2013 11,863 16,052 3,141 30,580

2014 17,254 22,663 4,386 43,538

2015 22,323 28,686 5,488 55,428

2016 27,101 34,267 6,478 66,463

2017 31,618 39,505 7,375 76,795

2018 35,902 44,462 8,194 86,532

2019 39,979 49,178 8,945 95,750

2020 43,870 53,680 9,635 104,505

2021 47,592 57,991 10,272 112,845

2022 51,153 62,128 10,861 120,802

2023 54,564 66,107 11,408 128,407

2024 57,832 69,940 11,916 135,685

2025 60,967 73,638 12,389 142,660

2026 63,976 77,211 12,832 149,354

2027 66,868 80,668 13,247 155,790

2028 69,650 84,020 13,637 161,988

2029 72,329 87,273 14,004 167,964

2030 74,913 90,434 14,352 173,733

2031 77,405 93,508 14,682 179,309

2032 79,812 96,502 14,995 184,707

2033 82,137 99,422 15,294 189,938

2034 84,386 102,271 15,581 195,012

2035 86,560 105,054 15,855 199,937

2036 88,665 107,775 16,120 204,722

2037 90,703 110,434 16,374 209,375

2038 92,677 113,036 16,620 213,901

2039 94,592 115,583 16,858 218,306

2040 96,449 118,075 17,089 222,596

2041 98,252 120,515 17,313 226,777

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders



Page | 119

Table 67 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 8,280 12,686 1,723 22,465

2013 16,099 24,060 3,242 42,889

2014 23,512 34,468 4,596 61,738

2015 30,560 44,134 5,813 79,319

2016 37,282 53,210 6,915 95,851

2017 43,714 61,809 7,920 111,510

2018 49,895 70,017 8,844 126,440

2019 55,860 77,878 9,696 140,728

2020 61,627 85,423 10,483 154,435

2021 67,213 92,676 11,212 167,607

2022 72,630 99,659 11,888 180,287

2023 77,892 106,393 12,517 192,513

2024 83,010 112,898 13,105 204,324

2025 88,005 119,193 13,656 215,764

2026 92,890 125,297 14,175 226,872

2027 97,669 131,228 14,666 237,671

2028 102,346 136,994 15,132 248,179

2029 106,927 142,604 15,573 258,411

2030 111,415 148,068 15,993 268,383

2031 115,816 153,393 16,392 278,110

2032 120,134 158,587 16,772 287,605

2033 124,373 163,658 17,133 296,882

2034 128,535 168,613 17,478 305,952

2035 132,624 173,461 17,807 314,826

2036 136,642 178,206 18,121 323,513

2037 140,588 182,854 18,420 332,021

2038 144,465 187,411 18,707 340,356

2039 148,273 191,882 18,980 348,526

2040 152,013 196,269 19,241 356,535

2041 155,686 200,578 19,491 364,389

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety

Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041


Page | 120

Table 68 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 14,401 21,308 3,429 38,700

2013 27,962 40,112 6,382 73,469

2014 40,765 57,131 8,982 105,275

2015 52,883 72,820 11,302 134,746

2016 64,382 87,477 13,392 162,314

2017 75,332 101,315 15,294 188,305

2018 85,797 114,479 17,038 212,972

2019 95,839 127,055 18,640 236,478

2020 105,497 139,103 20,118 258,941

2021 114,804 150,666 21,484 280,452

2022 123,784 161,787 22,749 301,089

2023 132,456 172,500 23,925 320,920

2024 140,842 182,838 25,021 340,009

2025 148,972 192,831 26,045 358,424

2026 156,866 202,508 27,007 376,226

2027 164,537 211,896 27,913 393,461

2028 171,996 221,014 28,768 410,167

2029 179,256 229,877 29,578 426,375

2030 186,328 238,501 30,345 442,116

2031 193,221 246,901 31,074 457,420

2032 199,946 255,089 31,767 472,313

2033 206,510 263,079 32,428 486,820

2034 212,921 270,885 33,059 500,964

2035 219,185 278,515 33,662 514,763

2036 225,307 285,980 34,240 528,235

2037 231,291 293,288 34,795 541,395

2038 237,142 300,448 35,327 554,256

2039 242,865 307,464 35,838 566,831

2040 248,462 314,344 36,330 579,131

2041 253,938 321,093 36,804 591,166

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders



Page | 121

Table 69 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.09%

2013 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% 0.18%

2014 0.10% 0.13% 0.03% 0.25%

2015 0.13% 0.16% 0.03% 0.31%

2016 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% 0.37%

2017 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% 0.43%

2018 0.20% 0.25% 0.05% 0.48%

2019 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% 0.52%

2020 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% 0.57%

2021 0.26% 0.31% 0.06% 0.61%

2022 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% 0.64%

2023 0.29% 0.35% 0.06% 0.68%

2024 0.30% 0.37% 0.06% 0.71%

2025 0.32% 0.38% 0.06% 0.74%

2026 0.33% 0.40% 0.07% 0.77%

2027 0.34% 0.41% 0.07% 0.80%

2028 0.35% 0.43% 0.07% 0.83%

2029 0.37% 0.44% 0.07% 0.85%

2030 0.38% 0.45% 0.07% 0.87%

2031 0.39% 0.47% 0.07% 0.89%

2032 0.40% 0.48% 0.07% 0.91%

2033 0.40% 0.49% 0.08% 0.93%

2034 0.41% 0.50% 0.08% 0.95%

2035 0.42% 0.51% 0.08% 0.97%

2036 0.43% 0.52% 0.08% 0.99%

2037 0.44% 0.53% 0.08% 1.00%

2038 0.44% 0.54% 0.08% 1.02%

2039 0.45% 0.55% 0.08% 1.03%

2040 0.45% 0.56% 0.08% 1.05%

2041 0.46% 0.57% 0.08% 1.06%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Males in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 122

Table 70 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.05% 0.07% 0.01% 0.13%

2013 0.09% 0.14% 0.02% 0.24%

2014 0.13% 0.19% 0.03% 0.35%

2015 0.17% 0.25% 0.03% 0.44%

2016 0.21% 0.29% 0.04% 0.53%

2017 0.24% 0.34% 0.04% 0.61%

2018 0.27% 0.38% 0.05% 0.68%

2019 0.30% 0.42% 0.05% 0.76%

2020 0.33% 0.45% 0.06% 0.82%

2021 0.35% 0.49% 0.06% 0.88%

2022 0.38% 0.52% 0.06% 0.94%

2023 0.40% 0.55% 0.06% 1.00%

2024 0.43% 0.58% 0.07% 1.05%

2025 0.45% 0.61% 0.07% 1.10%

2026 0.47% 0.64% 0.07% 1.15%

2027 0.49% 0.66% 0.07% 1.20%

2028 0.51% 0.68% 0.08% 1.24%

2029 0.53% 0.71% 0.08% 1.28%

2030 0.55% 0.73% 0.08% 1.32%

2031 0.57% 0.75% 0.08% 1.36%

2032 0.58% 0.77% 0.08% 1.40%

2033 0.60% 0.79% 0.08% 1.43%

2034 0.61% 0.81% 0.08% 1.46%

2035 0.63% 0.83% 0.08% 1.50%

2036 0.64% 0.84% 0.09% 1.53%

2037 0.66% 0.86% 0.09% 1.56%

2038 0.67% 0.88% 0.09% 1.59%

2039 0.69% 0.89% 0.09% 1.62%

2040 0.70% 0.91% 0.09% 1.64%

2041 0.71% 0.92% 0.09% 1.67%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Females in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 123

Table 71 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.04% 0.06% 0.01% 0.11%

2013 0.08% 0.11% 0.02% 0.21%

2014 0.12% 0.16% 0.03% 0.30%

2015 0.15% 0.20% 0.03% 0.38%

2016 0.18% 0.24% 0.04% 0.45%

2017 0.21% 0.28% 0.04% 0.52%

2018 0.23% 0.31% 0.05% 0.58%

2019 0.26% 0.34% 0.05% 0.64%

2020 0.28% 0.37% 0.05% 0.70%

2021 0.31% 0.40% 0.06% 0.75%

2022 0.33% 0.43% 0.06% 0.80%

2023 0.35% 0.45% 0.06% 0.84%

2024 0.37% 0.48% 0.06% 0.88%

2025 0.38% 0.50% 0.07% 0.92%

2026 0.40% 0.52% 0.07% 0.96%

2027 0.42% 0.54% 0.07% 1.00%

2028 0.43% 0.56% 0.07% 1.03%

2029 0.45% 0.58% 0.07% 1.07%

2030 0.46% 0.59% 0.08% 1.10%

2031 0.48% 0.61% 0.08% 1.13%

2032 0.49% 0.63% 0.08% 1.16%

2033 0.50% 0.64% 0.08% 1.19%

2034 0.51% 0.66% 0.08% 1.21%

2035 0.53% 0.67% 0.08% 1.24%

2036 0.54% 0.68% 0.08% 1.26%

2037 0.55% 0.70% 0.08% 1.29%

2038 0.56% 0.71% 0.08% 1.31%

2039 0.57% 0.72% 0.08% 1.33%

2040 0.58% 0.73% 0.08% 1.35%

2041 0.59% 0.75% 0.09% 1.37%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Canada, by Scenario, 2011

to 2041

Scenario


Page | 124

B.1.6 SCHIZOPHRENIA

Table 72 Estimated Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 104,261 104,261 104,261 104,261

2012 105,540 105,326 105,070 104,859

2013 106,881 106,473 105,985 105,587

2014 108,220 107,632 106,930 106,362

2015 109,508 108,752 107,851 107,124

2016 110,730 109,816 108,728 107,853

2017 111,867 110,805 109,541 108,526

2018 112,960 111,755 110,319 109,170

2019 114,058 112,713 111,105 109,827

2020 115,152 113,671 111,894 110,488

2021 116,245 114,632 112,686 111,158

2022 117,353 115,610 113,497 111,849

2023 118,471 116,602 114,321 112,556

2024 119,583 117,588 115,141 113,260

2025 120,678 118,558 115,949 113,954

2026 121,751 119,509 116,740 114,633

2027 122,813 120,449 117,525 115,306

2028 123,871 121,386 118,307 115,979

2029 124,910 122,305 119,074 116,636

2030 125,926 123,200 119,821 117,273

2031 126,921 124,074 120,550 117,894

2032 127,897 124,931 121,265 118,500

2033 128,859 125,776 121,968 119,098

2034 129,810 126,612 122,663 119,690

2035 130,760 127,450 123,360 120,286

2036 131,712 128,290 124,058 120,884

2037 132,661 129,128 124,753 121,479

2038 133,612 129,968 125,451 122,078

2039 134,561 130,807 126,146 122,675

2040 135,503 131,640 126,837 123,269

2041 136,434 132,465 127,520 123,857

Estimated Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month


Scenario


Page | 125

Table 73 Estimated Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 106,361 106,361 106,361 106,361

2012 107,936 107,650 107,340 107,055

2013 109,504 108,949 108,349 107,802

2014 111,073 110,265 109,388 108,595

2015 112,639 111,590 110,445 109,419

2016 114,193 112,914 111,507 110,258

2017 115,728 114,226 112,565 111,103

2018 117,241 115,524 113,614 111,946

2019 118,730 116,804 114,652 112,786

2020 120,195 118,067 115,679 113,621

2021 121,639 119,313 116,696 114,452

2022 123,064 120,546 117,704 115,280

2023 124,470 121,765 118,705 116,106

2024 125,861 122,973 119,699 116,929

2025 127,235 124,169 120,686 117,751

2026 128,593 125,352 121,665 118,569

2027 129,933 126,523 122,635 119,383

2028 131,255 127,679 123,596 120,191

2029 132,557 128,819 124,544 120,992

2030 133,838 129,942 125,480 121,785

2031 135,098 131,049 126,403 122,569

2032 136,335 132,137 127,311 123,343

2033 137,549 133,207 128,204 124,106

2034 138,739 134,256 129,081 124,857

2035 139,904 135,286 129,942 125,597

2036 141,044 136,295 130,785 126,323

2037 142,160 137,283 131,611 127,038

2038 143,251 138,251 132,421 127,740

2039 144,318 139,200 133,215 128,430

2040 145,363 140,131 133,994 129,109

2041 146,386 141,043 134,759 129,778

Scenario

Estimated Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month



Page | 126

Table 74 Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 210,622 210,622 210,622 210,622

2012 213,477 212,975 212,410 211,914

2013 216,385 215,422 214,334 213,389

2014 219,293 217,897 216,318 214,956

2015 222,147 220,342 218,296 216,542

2016 224,923 222,730 220,236 218,112

2017 227,595 225,031 222,106 219,629

2018 230,201 227,279 223,933 221,117

2019 232,787 229,517 225,758 222,613

2020 235,347 231,738 227,573 224,109

2021 237,884 233,945 229,382 225,610

2022 240,416 236,156 231,201 227,129

2023 242,942 238,368 233,026 228,661

2024 245,444 240,561 234,840 230,189

2025 247,913 242,727 236,634 231,704

2026 250,344 244,861 238,405 233,202

2027 252,747 246,972 240,160 234,689

2028 255,126 249,065 241,903 236,170

2029 257,467 251,124 243,618 237,628

2030 259,764 253,142 245,301 239,058

2031 262,019 255,123 246,953 240,462

2032 264,232 257,069 248,576 241,843

2033 266,408 258,983 250,172 243,204

2034 268,548 260,868 251,744 244,547

2035 270,664 262,736 253,301 245,882

2036 272,756 264,585 254,843 247,207

2037 274,821 266,411 256,365 248,517

2038 276,863 268,219 257,872 249,817

2039 278,879 270,007 259,362 251,105

2040 280,865 271,771 260,831 252,378

2041 282,820 273,509 262,279 253,635

Scenario

Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month



Page | 127

Table 75 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - -

2012 215 470 682

2013 408 896 1,294

2014 588 1,290 1,858

2015 756 1,657 2,384

2016 913 2,001 2,876

2017 1,062 2,327 3,341

2018 1,205 2,642 3,790

2019 1,345 2,952 4,231

2020 1,481 3,258 4,663

2021 1,613 3,558 5,087

2022 1,742 3,856 5,504

2023 1,869 4,151 5,916

2024 1,995 4,442 6,323

2025 2,120 4,729 6,724

2026 2,243 5,011 7,119

2027 2,364 5,289 7,507

2028 2,485 5,564 7,892

2029 2,606 5,836 8,274

2030 2,726 6,105 8,653

2031 2,847 6,370 9,027

2032 2,966 6,632 9,397

2033 3,083 6,891 9,761

2034 3,198 7,147 10,120

2035 3,310 7,401 10,475

2036 3,422 7,654 10,828

2037 3,533 7,908 11,182

2038 3,644 8,161 11,535

2039 3,754 8,414 11,886

2040 3,863 8,666 12,234

2041 3,969 8,914 12,577

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with

Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 128

Table 76 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - -

2012 287 596 881

2013 555 1,155 1,702

2014 808 1,685 2,478

2015 1,049 2,194 3,220

2016 1,279 2,686 3,935

2017 1,502 3,163 4,625

2018 1,717 3,627 5,294

2019 1,926 4,077 5,943

2020 2,128 4,516 6,574

2021 2,325 4,943 7,187

2022 2,518 5,359 7,784

2023 2,705 5,765 8,365

2024 2,888 6,162 8,932

2025 3,066 6,549 9,484

2026 3,240 6,928 10,024

2027 3,410 7,298 10,550

2028 3,576 7,660 11,064

2029 3,738 8,013 11,565

2030 3,896 8,358 12,053

2031 4,049 8,695 12,529

2032 4,198 9,024 12,992

2033 4,342 9,345 13,443

2034 4,483 9,658 13,882

2035 4,618 9,963 14,307

2036 4,750 10,259 14,721

2037 4,877 10,548 15,122

2038 4,999 10,829 15,511

2039 5,118 11,103 15,888

2040 5,232 11,368 16,253

2041 5,342 11,627 16,607

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with



Scenario


Page | 129

Table 77 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - -

2012 502 1,067 1,563

2013 963 2,051 2,996

2014 1,395 2,974 4,336

2015 1,805 3,851 5,605

2016 2,193 4,687 6,811

2017 2,564 5,490 7,966

2018 2,922 6,268 9,085

2019 3,270 7,030 10,174

2020 3,609 7,774 11,237

2021 3,939 8,502 12,274

2022 4,260 9,215 13,287

2023 4,574 9,916 14,280

2024 4,883 10,604 15,254

2025 5,186 11,278 16,208

2026 5,483 11,939 17,143

2027 5,775 12,587 18,058

2028 6,061 13,223 18,956

2029 6,343 13,849 19,839

2030 6,622 14,463 20,706

2031 6,895 15,065 21,556

2032 7,163 15,656 22,389

2033 7,425 16,236 23,204

2034 7,680 16,804 24,001

2035 7,928 17,363 24,782

2036 8,172 17,914 25,549

2037 8,410 18,456 26,304

2038 8,643 18,991 27,046

2039 8,872 19,517 27,774

2040 9,095 20,034 28,487

2041 9,311 20,541 29,185

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with



Scenario


Page | 130

Table 78 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2015 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2017 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2018 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%

2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2021 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2022 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2023 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2024 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2025 0.01% 0.02% 0.04%

2026 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2027 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2028 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2029 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2030 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2031 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%

2032 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%

2033 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%

2034 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2035 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2036 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2037 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2038 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2039 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2040 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2041 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

Scenario

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Males in



Page | 131

Table 79 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%

2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2015 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2017 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2018 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2021 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2022 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2023 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2024 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%

2025 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%

2026 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2027 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2028 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2029 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2030 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2031 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2032 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2033 0.02% 0.05% 0.06%

2034 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2035 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2036 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2037 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2038 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2039 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2040 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2041 0.02% 0.05% 0.08%

Scenario

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Females in



Page | 132

Table 80 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%

2015 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%

2017 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%

2018 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%

2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2021 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

2022 0.01% 0.02% 0.04%

2023 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2024 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2025 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2026 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%

2027 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%

2028 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%

2029 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%

2030 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2031 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2032 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%

2033 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2034 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2035 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2036 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2037 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2038 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%

2039 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2040 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

2041 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%

Scenario

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Canada, by



Page | 133

B.1.7 SUBSTANCE USE DISORDERS

Table 81 Estimated Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361

2012 1,473,502 1,464,610 1,464,230 1,472,046 1,454,087

2013 1,475,116 1,458,262 1,458,148 1,472,517 1,439,161

2014 1,476,171 1,452,159 1,452,551 1,472,634 1,425,760

2015 1,477,207 1,446,712 1,447,615 1,472,860 1,413,850

2016 1,478,458 1,442,042 1,443,369 1,473,385 1,403,294

2017 1,480,022 1,438,157 1,439,799 1,474,287 1,393,959

2018 1,481,764 1,434,823 1,436,714 1,475,419 1,385,541

2019 1,483,733 1,432,016 1,434,121 1,476,823 1,377,965

2020 1,486,253 1,430,039 1,432,299 1,478,815 1,371,476

2021 1,489,380 1,428,932 1,431,284 1,481,450 1,366,089

2022 1,493,080 1,428,646 1,431,024 1,484,687 1,361,732

2023 1,497,301 1,429,115 1,431,456 1,488,474 1,358,322

2024 1,502,018 1,430,298 1,432,535 1,492,780 1,355,795

2025 1,507,188 1,432,137 1,434,201 1,497,559 1,354,073

2026 1,512,749 1,434,557 1,436,382 1,502,747 1,353,067

2027 1,518,657 1,437,501 1,439,025 1,508,297 1,352,706

2028 1,524,874 1,440,917 1,442,080 1,514,168 1,352,928

2029 1,531,364 1,444,759 1,445,507 1,520,324 1,353,678

2030 1,538,087 1,448,972 1,449,258 1,526,722 1,354,896

2031 1,545,012 1,453,515 1,453,299 1,533,332 1,356,535

2032 1,552,126 1,458,363 1,457,611 1,540,139 1,358,563

2033 1,559,412 1,463,490 1,462,171 1,547,125 1,360,949

2034 1,566,847 1,468,864 1,466,952 1,554,267 1,363,658

2035 1,574,403 1,474,452 1,471,922 1,561,537 1,366,649

2036 1,582,061 1,480,227 1,477,059 1,568,914 1,369,896

2037 1,589,797 1,486,160 1,482,337 1,576,374 1,373,364

2038 1,597,598 1,492,233 1,487,740 1,583,905 1,377,035

2039 1,605,449 1,498,425 1,493,252 1,591,490 1,380,886

2040 1,613,337 1,504,719 1,498,859 1,599,118 1,384,897

2041 1,621,258 1,511,107 1,504,555 1,606,782 1,389,060

Estimated Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 134

Table 82 Estimated Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 556,648 556,648 556,648 556,648 556,648

2012 558,160 552,062 552,131 557,412 545,445

2013 558,869 547,772 548,291 557,573 536,295

2014 559,147 543,822 544,931 557,424 528,540

2015 559,278 540,288 542,007 557,204 521,864

2016 559,421 537,202 539,492 557,047 516,078

2017 559,661 534,552 537,367 557,023 511,054

2018 560,051 532,350 535,620 557,177 506,725

2019 560,618 530,568 534,238 557,531 503,016

2020 561,385 529,191 533,207 558,104 499,871

2021 562,344 528,182 532,496 558,885 497,231

2022 563,493 527,521 532,086 559,871 495,051

2023 564,833 527,188 531,959 561,058 493,296

2024 566,361 527,165 532,100 562,443 491,934

2025 568,070 527,435 532,493 564,019 490,935

2026 569,956 527,979 533,122 565,777 490,270

2027 572,011 528,780 533,972 567,710 489,914

2028 574,224 529,817 535,026 569,807 489,841

2029 576,583 531,070 536,267 572,053 490,023

2030 579,074 532,518 537,678 574,434 490,436

2031 581,682 534,140 539,239 576,936 491,056

2032 584,392 535,915 540,934 579,543 491,858

2033 587,191 537,824 542,746 582,239 492,824

2034 590,062 539,850 544,660 585,011 493,931

2035 592,995 541,974 546,660 587,845 495,164

2036 595,975 544,182 548,734 590,730 496,505

2037 598,994 546,461 550,871 593,654 497,942

2038 602,041 548,800 553,061 596,608 499,462

2039 605,109 551,188 555,297 599,586 501,055

2040 608,192 553,616 557,571 602,580 502,713

2041 611,283 556,076 559,876 605,584 504,426

Estimated Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 135

Table 83 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year Base Case

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009

2012 2,031,662 2,016,673 2,016,361 2,029,458 1,999,531

2013 2,033,985 2,006,034 2,006,438 2,030,090 1,975,456

2014 2,035,318 1,995,981 1,997,481 2,030,057 1,954,300

2015 2,036,485 1,987,000 1,989,622 2,030,063 1,935,713

2016 2,037,879 1,979,244 1,982,861 2,030,432 1,919,372

2017 2,039,683 1,972,709 1,977,166 2,031,310 1,905,012

2018 2,041,815 1,967,172 1,972,334 2,032,596 1,892,265

2019 2,044,352 1,962,585 1,968,359 2,034,354 1,880,980

2020 2,047,638 1,959,229 1,965,506 2,036,919 1,871,347

2021 2,051,724 1,957,115 1,963,780 2,040,335 1,863,319

2022 2,056,573 1,956,167 1,963,110 2,044,558 1,856,783

2023 2,062,134 1,956,302 1,963,415 2,049,532 1,851,618

2024 2,068,379 1,957,463 1,964,635 2,055,223 1,847,729

2025 2,075,258 1,959,572 1,966,694 2,061,577 1,845,008

2026 2,082,705 1,962,536 1,969,504 2,068,524 1,843,337

2027 2,090,668 1,966,281 1,972,996 2,076,007 1,842,620

2028 2,099,098 1,970,734 1,977,106 2,083,974 1,842,769

2029 2,107,947 1,975,829 1,981,774 2,092,377 1,843,701

2030 2,117,160 1,981,490 1,986,936 2,101,156 1,845,332

2031 2,126,694 1,987,655 1,992,539 2,110,268 1,847,590

2032 2,136,518 1,994,278 1,998,545 2,119,681 1,850,422

2033 2,146,602 2,001,314 2,004,918 2,129,364 1,853,773

2034 2,156,909 2,008,714 2,011,612 2,139,278 1,857,589

2035 2,167,398 2,016,426 2,018,582 2,149,382 1,861,813

2036 2,178,037 2,024,410 2,025,793 2,159,644 1,866,401

2037 2,188,791 2,032,622 2,033,208 2,170,028 1,871,306

2038 2,199,639 2,041,033 2,040,801 2,180,513 1,876,497

2039 2,210,558 2,049,612 2,048,549 2,191,076 1,881,941

2040 2,221,529 2,058,335 2,056,430 2,201,697 1,887,610

2041 2,232,541 2,067,183 2,064,431 2,212,366 1,893,486

Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by


Scenario


Page | 136

Table 84 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 8,892 9,272 1,456 19,416

2013 16,853 16,968 2,598 35,955

2014 24,012 23,621 3,537 50,411

2015 30,495 29,592 4,348 63,358

2016 36,416 35,089 5,073 75,164

2017 41,865 40,223 5,735 86,063

2018 46,941 45,050 6,345 96,223

2019 51,717 49,612 6,911 105,769

2020 56,214 53,954 7,438 114,777

2021 60,448 58,097 7,931 123,292

2022 64,434 62,055 8,393 131,348

2023 68,186 65,845 8,827 138,979

2024 71,720 69,484 9,238 146,223

2025 75,051 72,987 9,629 153,115

2026 78,192 76,366 10,002 159,682

2027 81,156 79,633 10,361 165,951

2028 83,957 82,794 10,706 171,946

2029 86,606 85,858 11,041 177,687

2030 89,115 88,829 11,365 183,191

2031 91,497 91,713 11,680 188,478

2032 93,763 94,515 11,987 193,563

2033 95,922 97,241 12,287 198,462

2034 97,983 99,895 12,580 203,189

2035 99,951 102,481 12,866 207,754

2036 101,834 105,002 13,147 212,166

2037 103,637 107,460 13,423 216,433

2038 105,365 109,858 13,693 220,563

2039 107,024 112,196 13,959 224,563

2040 108,618 114,478 14,219 228,439

2041 110,151 116,704 14,476 232,198

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence)



Page | 137

Table 85 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 6,098 6,029 749 12,715

2013 11,097 10,578 1,296 22,574

2014 15,325 14,216 1,723 30,607

2015 18,989 17,271 2,074 37,414

2016 22,220 19,930 2,374 43,343

2017 25,109 22,294 2,638 48,607

2018 27,702 24,431 2,874 53,326

2019 30,050 26,380 3,087 57,602

2020 32,194 28,178 3,281 61,514

2021 34,161 29,847 3,458 65,113

2022 35,972 31,407 3,623 68,442

2023 37,645 32,874 3,775 71,537

2024 39,195 34,260 3,918 74,426

2025 40,635 35,577 4,052 77,135

2026 41,977 36,834 4,179 79,686

2027 43,231 38,039 4,301 82,096

2028 44,407 39,198 4,417 84,383

2029 45,512 40,315 4,530 86,560

2030 46,555 41,396 4,639 88,637

2031 47,542 42,442 4,746 90,626

2032 48,477 43,458 4,850 92,534

2033 49,366 44,444 4,952 94,367

2034 50,213 45,403 5,051 96,131

2035 51,021 46,335 5,149 97,831

2036 51,793 47,241 5,246 99,470

2037 52,532 48,123 5,340 101,052

2038 53,241 48,980 5,433 102,579

2039 53,922 49,812 5,523 104,054

2040 54,576 50,621 5,612 105,480

2041 55,207 51,407 5,699 106,857

Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with SUD (12-Month


Scenario


Page | 138

Table 86 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Year

Increase

Remission

Reduce

Incidence

Reduce

Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 - - - -

2012 14,990 15,301 2,205 32,131

2013 27,950 27,546 3,895 58,529

2014 39,337 37,837 5,261 81,018

2015 49,484 46,863 6,422 100,772

2016 58,635 55,018 7,447 118,507

2017 66,974 62,518 8,373 134,671

2018 74,643 69,481 9,219 149,550

2019 81,767 75,992 9,998 163,371

2020 88,408 82,132 10,719 176,291

2021 94,609 87,944 11,389 188,405

2022 100,407 93,463 12,015 199,790

2023 105,832 98,719 12,602 210,516

2024 110,916 103,744 13,156 220,650

2025 115,686 108,564 13,681 230,250

2026 120,169 113,201 14,181 239,368

2027 124,387 117,672 14,661 248,048

2028 128,363 121,992 15,123 256,329

2029 132,118 126,173 15,570 264,246

2030 135,670 130,225 16,004 271,829

2031 139,039 134,155 16,426 279,104

2032 142,240 137,973 16,837 286,097

2033 145,288 141,685 17,238 292,829

2034 148,195 145,298 17,631 299,320

2035 150,972 148,816 18,016 305,585

2036 153,627 152,244 18,393 311,636

2037 156,169 155,583 18,763 317,485

2038 158,606 158,837 19,126 323,142

2039 160,946 162,009 19,482 328,617

2040 163,194 165,099 19,832 333,919

2041 165,358 168,110 20,175 339,056

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month



Page | 139

Table 87 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11%

2013 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.21%

2014 0.14% 0.13% 0.00% 0.29%

2015 0.17% 0.17% 0.00% 0.36%

2016 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.42%

2017 0.23% 0.22% 0.00% 0.48%

2018 0.26% 0.25% 0.00% 0.53%

2019 0.28% 0.27% 0.00% 0.58%

2020 0.30% 0.29% 0.00% 0.62%

2021 0.32% 0.31% 0.00% 0.66%

2022 0.34% 0.33% 0.00% 0.70%

2023 0.36% 0.35% 0.00% 0.74%

2024 0.38% 0.37% 0.00% 0.77%

2025 0.39% 0.38% 0.00% 0.80%

2026 0.40% 0.40% 0.00% 0.83%

2027 0.42% 0.41% 0.00% 0.85%

2028 0.43% 0.42% 0.00% 0.88%

2029 0.44% 0.43% 0.06% 0.90%

2030 0.45% 0.45% 0.06% 0.92%

2031 0.46% 0.46% 0.06% 0.94%

2032 0.46% 0.47% 0.06% 0.96%

2033 0.47% 0.48% 0.06% 0.98%

2034 0.48% 0.49% 0.06% 0.99%

2035 0.49% 0.50% 0.06% 1.01%

2036 0.49% 0.51% 0.06% 1.02%

2037 0.50% 0.52% 0.06% 1.04%

2038 0.50% 0.52% 0.07% 1.05%

2039 0.51% 0.53% 0.07% 1.06%

2040 0.51% 0.54% 0.07% 1.08%

2041 0.52% 0.55% 0.07% 1.09%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Males in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 140

Table 88 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Females for Each of the Hypothetical

Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07%

2013 0.06% 0.06% 0.00% 0.13%

2014 0.09% 0.08% 0.00% 0.17%

2015 0.11% 0.10% 0.00% 0.21%

2016 0.12% 0.11% 0.00% 0.24%

2017 0.14% 0.12% 0.00% 0.27%

2018 0.15% 0.13% 0.00% 0.29%

2019 0.16% 0.14% 0.00% 0.31%

2020 0.17% 0.15% 0.00% 0.33%

2021 0.18% 0.16% 0.00% 0.34%

2022 0.19% 0.16% 0.00% 0.36%

2023 0.20% 0.17% 0.00% 0.37%

2024 0.20% 0.18% 0.00% 0.38%

2025 0.21% 0.18% 0.00% 0.39%

2026 0.21% 0.19% 0.00% 0.40%

2027 0.22% 0.19% 0.00% 0.41%

2028 0.22% 0.20% 0.00% 0.42%

2029 0.22% 0.20% 0.00% 0.43%

2030 0.23% 0.20% 0.00% 0.44%

2031 0.23% 0.21% 0.00% 0.44%

2032 0.23% 0.21% 0.00% 0.45%

2033 0.24% 0.21% 0.00% 0.45%

2034 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.46%

2035 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.46%

2036 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.47%

2037 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.47%

2038 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.48%

2039 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.48%

2040 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.49%

2041 0.25% 0.24% 0.00% 0.49%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Females in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 141

Table 89 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.


Combined

Intervention

2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%

2013 0.08% 0.08% 0.00% 0.17%

2014 0.11% 0.11% 0.00% 0.23%

2015 0.14% 0.13% 0.00% 0.28%

2016 0.16% 0.15% 0.00% 0.33%

2017 0.18% 0.17% 0.00% 0.37%

2018 0.20% 0.19% 0.00% 0.41%

2019 0.22% 0.21% 0.00% 0.44%

2020 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.47%

2021 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.50%

2022 0.26% 0.25% 0.00% 0.53%

2023 0.28% 0.26% 0.00% 0.55%

2024 0.29% 0.27% 0.00% 0.57%

2025 0.30% 0.28% 0.00% 0.59%

2026 0.31% 0.29% 0.00% 0.61%

2027 0.32% 0.30% 0.00% 0.63%

2028 0.32% 0.31% 0.00% 0.65%

2029 0.33% 0.32% 0.00% 0.66%

2030 0.34% 0.32% 0.00% 0.67%

2031 0.34% 0.33% 0.00% 0.69%

2032 0.35% 0.34% 0.00% 0.70%

2033 0.35% 0.35% 0.00% 0.71%

2034 0.36% 0.35% 0.00% 0.72%

2035 0.36% 0.36% 0.00% 0.73%

2036 0.37% 0.36% 0.00% 0.74%

2037 0.37% 0.37% 0.00% 0.75%

2038 0.37% 0.37% 0.00% 0.76%

2039 0.38% 0.38% 0.00% 0.77%

2040 0.38% 0.38% 0.00% 0.78%

2041 0.38% 0.39% 0.00% 0.78%

Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041

Scenario


Page | 142

B.1.8 DEMENTIA INCLUDING COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT

Table 90 Estimated Number of Males with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario

Year Reduce Incidence

2011 294,425

2012 301,463

2013 308,989

2014 317,041

2015 325,683

2016 334,987

2017 345,012

2018 355,802

2019 367,378

2020 379,739

2021 392,859

2022 406,692

2023 421,174

2024 436,220

2025 451,736

2026 467,616

2027 483,752

2028 500,034

2029 516,359

2030 532,627

2031 548,747

2032 564,635

2033 580,220

2034 595,437

2035 610,232

2036 624,562

2037 638,395

2038 651,709

2039 664,496

2040 676,756

2041 688,503


Estimated Number of Males with

Dementia* (Prevalence) in



Page | 143

Table 91 Estimated Number of Females with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario


2011 452,594

2012 460,032

2013 468,064

2014 476,784

2015 486,313

2016 496,767

2017 508,248

2018 520,830

2019 534,562

2020 549,459

2021 565,510

2022 582,676

2023 600,889

2024 620,056

2025 640,066

2026 660,789

2027 682,084

2028 703,805

2029 725,806

2030 747,942

2031 770,074

2032 792,069

2033 813,804

2034 835,168

2035 856,057

2036 876,383

2037 896,072

2038 915,064

2039 933,316

2040 950,801

2041 967,510


Estimated Number of Females

with Dementia* (Prevalence) in



Page | 144

Table 92 Estimated Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario


2011 747,019

2012 761,496

2013 777,053

2014 793,825

2015 811,995

2016 831,753

2017 853,260

2018 876,633

2019 901,940

2020 929,197

2021 958,369

2022 989,369

2023 1,022,063

2024 1,056,277

2025 1,091,802

2026 1,128,404

2027 1,165,835

2028 1,203,840

2029 1,242,166

2030 1,280,569

2031 1,318,820

2032 1,356,704

2033 1,394,024

2034 1,430,604

2035 1,466,289

2036 1,500,945

2037 1,534,467

2038 1,566,774

2039 1,597,811

2040 1,627,557

2041 1,656,013


Estimated Number of People with

Dementia* (Prevalence) in



Page | 145

Table 93 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario


2011 -

2012 3,321

2013 6,509

2014 9,575

2015 12,533

2016 15,397

2017 18,179

2018 20,887

2019 23,528

2020 26,107

2021 28,626

2022 31,086

2023 33,489

2024 35,834

2025 38,120

2026 40,344

2027 42,503

2028 44,593

2029 46,613

2030 48,558

2031 50,426

2032 52,216

2033 53,925

2034 55,554

2035 57,104

2036 58,575

2037 59,969

2038 61,289

2039 62,539

2040 63,723

2041 64,845


Estimated Reduction in Number

of Males with Dementia

(Prevalence) in Canada, by



Page | 146

Table 94 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario


2011 -

2012 4,268

2013 8,388

2014 12,372

2015 16,235

2016 19,991

2017 23,654

2018 27,234

2019 30,738

2020 34,173

2021 37,541

2022 40,847

2023 44,090

2024 47,269

2025 50,383

2026 53,428

2027 56,400

2028 59,293

2029 62,102

2030 64,822

2031 67,448

2032 69,974

2033 72,398

2034 74,715

2035 76,924

2036 79,023

2037 81,013

2038 82,896

2039 84,673

2040 86,349

2041 87,927



of Females with Dementia




Page | 147

Table 95 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Dementia* (Prevalence) for the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario


2011 -

2012 7,589

2013 14,897

2014 21,947

2015 28,767

2016 35,388

2017 41,833

2018 48,121

2019 54,266

2020 60,279

2021 66,167

2022 71,933

2023 77,579

2024 83,104

2025 88,503

2026 93,772

2027 98,902

2028 103,887

2029 108,715

2030 113,380

2031 117,874

2032 122,190

2033 126,323

2034 130,269

2035 134,028

2036 137,598

2037 140,983

2038 144,186

2039 147,213

2040 150,072

2041 152,773



of People with Dementia*




Page | 148

Table 96 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in Males for the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Table 97 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in Females for the Incidence Reduction

Scenario.

Scenario


2011 Cell suppressed*

2012 0.02%

2013 0.04%

2014 0.05%

2015 0.07%

2016 0.09%

2017 0.10%

2018 0.12%

2019 0.13%

2020 0.14%

2021 0.15%

2022 0.17%

2023 0.18%

2024 0.19%

2025 0.20%

2026 0.21%

2027 0.22%

2028 0.23%

2029 0.24%

2030 0.24%

2031 0.25%

2032 0.26%

2033 0.27%

2034 0.27%

2035 0.28%

2036 0.28%

2037 0.29%

2038 0.29%

2039 0.30%

2040 0.30%

2041 0.30%


*Cell suppressed due to small value

Reduction in Estimated Prevalence

of Dementia in Males in Canada,



Page | 149

Scenario



2012 0.02%

2013 0.05%

2014 0.07%

2015 0.09%

2016 0.11%

2017 0.13%

2018 0.15%

2019 0.16%

2020 0.18%

2021 0.20%

2022 0.21%

2023 0.23%

2024 0.24%

2025 0.26%

2026 0.27%

2027 0.28%

2028 0.30%

2029 0.31%

2030 0.32%

2031 0.33%

2032 0.34%

2033 0.35%

2034 0.36%

2035 0.37%

2036 0.37%

2037 0.38%

2038 0.39%

2039 0.39%

2040 0.40%

2041 0.40%




of Dementia in Females in



Page | 150

Table 98 Estimated Reduction in Prevalence of Dementia* in People for the Incidence Reduction Scenario.

Scenario



2012 0.02%

2013 0.04%

2014 0.06%

2015 0.08%

2016 0.10%

2017 0.12%

2018 0.13%

2019 0.15%

2020 0.16%

2021 0.18%

2022 0.19%

2023 0.20%

2024 0.22%

2025 0.23%

2026 0.24%

2027 0.25%

2028 0.26%

2029 0.27%

2030 0.28%

2031 0.29%

2032 0.30%

2033 0.31%

2034 0.31%

2035 0.32%

2036 0.33%

2037 0.33%

2038 0.34%

2039 0.34%

2040 0.35%

2041 0.35%




of Dementia* in Canada, by



Page | 151

B.1.9 DIRECT COSTS EXCLUDING DEMENTIA

Figure 30 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Excluding Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 31 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Excluding Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

$-

$20,000.0

$40,000.0

$60,000.0

$80,000.0

$100,000.0

$120,000.0

Base Case Increase Remission

Reduce Incidence



Futu

re V

alu

e ($

Mil

lio

ns)

Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Any* Disorder Excluding


2011 2021 2031 2041

Any* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD

$-

$2,000.0

$4,000.0

$6,000.0

$8,000.0

$10,000.0

$12,000.0

$14,000.0



Futu

re V

alu

e (

$ M

illi

on

s)

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs fo Any* Disorder Excluding Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041

Any* is Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia, SUD, ADHD, ODD, CD


Page | 152

Table 99 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Excluding Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions).

Year Base Case Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 22,557.0$ 22,557.0$ 22,557.0$ 22,557.0$ 22,557.0$

2012 23,756.7$ 23,654.0$ 23,623.5$ 23,744.3$ 23,510.3$

2013 24,999.5$ 24,796.8$ 24,739.6$ 24,975.2$ 24,517.3$

2014 26,299.8$ 25,997.4$ 25,914.9$ 26,263.4$ 25,584.4$

2015 27,668.4$ 27,265.2$ 27,157.6$ 27,619.6$ 26,717.7$

2016 29,113.4$ 28,607.1$ 28,473.9$ 29,051.9$ 27,922.7$

2017 30,641.2$ 30,028.8$ 29,869.3$ 30,566.6$ 29,203.9$

2018 32,256.1$ 31,533.8$ 31,347.6$ 32,168.0$ 30,564.3$

2019 33,961.6$ 33,125.0$ 32,911.9$ 33,859.8$ 32,006.4$

2020 35,762.5$ 34,806.5$ 34,566.1$ 35,646.6$ 33,533.8$

2021 37,662.5$ 36,581.9$ 36,313.8$ 37,532.1$ 35,149.4$

2022 39,665.8$ 38,454.9$ 38,158.3$ 39,520.5$ 36,856.2$

2023 41,776.8$ 40,429.3$ 40,103.4$ 41,616.2$ 38,657.5$

2024 44,000.2$ 42,509.7$ 42,153.2$ 43,823.7$ 40,557.0$

2025 46,340.9$ 44,700.1$ 44,311.6$ 46,147.9$ 42,558.0$

2026 48,804.4$ 47,005.7$ 46,583.5$ 48,594.1$ 44,664.9$

2027 51,397.0$ 49,432.5$ 48,974.6$ 51,168.7$ 46,882.8$

2028 54,125.2$ 51,986.2$ 51,490.4$ 53,878.0$ 49,216.9$

2029 56,995.5$ 54,673.0$ 54,136.9$ 56,728.6$ 51,672.4$

2030 60,014.8$ 57,499.2$ 56,920.1$ 59,727.2$ 54,254.9$

2031 63,190.6$ 60,471.6$ 59,846.8$ 62,881.3$ 56,970.6$

2032 66,531.0$ 63,597.8$ 62,924.2$ 66,198.8$ 59,826.2$

2033 70,044.4$ 66,885.5$ 66,160.0$ 69,688.2$ 62,828.5$

2034 73,739.7$ 70,343.1$ 69,562.2$ 73,358.4$ 65,985.1$

2035 77,626.3$ 73,979.2$ 73,139.1$ 77,218.5$ 69,303.6$

2036 81,714.0$ 77,802.9$ 76,899.8$ 81,278.5$ 72,792.3$

2037 86,012.9$ 81,823.8$ 80,853.4$ 85,548.2$ 76,459.6$

2038 90,534.1$ 86,051.9$ 85,009.8$ 90,038.8$ 80,314.7$

2039 95,288.9$ 90,498.0$ 89,379.4$ 94,761.3$ 84,367.2$

2040 100,289.2$ 95,172.9$ 93,972.9$ 99,727.6$ 88,627.1$

2041 105,547.6$ 100,088.7$ 98,802.0$ 104,950.4$ 93,105.0$

*Any includes ADHD, ODD, CD, SUD, Mood, Anxiety, and Schizophrenia


Scenario

Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Excuding Dementia* in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)


Page | 153

Table 100 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Excluding Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions).


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 -$ -$ -$ -$

2012 102.7$ 133.2$ 12.3$ 246.4$

2013 202.7$ 259.9$ 24.3$ 482.2$

2014 302.4$ 384.8$ 36.4$ 715.4$

2015 403.2$ 510.8$ 48.8$ 950.7$

2016 506.3$ 639.5$ 61.5$ 1,190.8$

2017 612.4$ 771.9$ 74.6$ 1,437.3$

2018 722.3$ 908.5$ 88.1$ 1,691.8$

2019 836.6$ 1,049.8$ 101.8$ 1,955.2$

2020 955.9$ 1,196.3$ 115.9$ 2,228.6$

2021 1,080.5$ 1,348.7$ 130.4$ 2,513.1$

2022 1,210.9$ 1,507.5$ 145.2$ 2,809.6$

2023 1,347.4$ 1,673.4$ 160.6$ 3,119.3$

2024 1,490.6$ 1,847.1$ 176.5$ 3,443.3$

2025 1,640.8$ 2,029.3$ 193.0$ 3,782.9$

2026 1,798.6$ 2,220.8$ 210.3$ 4,139.5$

2027 1,964.5$ 2,422.4$ 228.3$ 4,514.2$

2028 2,138.9$ 2,634.7$ 247.1$ 4,908.3$

2029 2,322.5$ 2,858.6$ 266.9$ 5,323.1$

2030 2,515.6$ 3,094.7$ 287.6$ 5,759.9$

2031 2,719.0$ 3,343.8$ 309.4$ 6,220.0$

2032 2,933.2$ 3,606.8$ 332.2$ 6,704.8$

2033 3,158.9$ 3,884.4$ 356.1$ 7,215.9$

2034 3,396.6$ 4,177.5$ 381.3$ 7,754.6$

2035 3,647.1$ 4,487.1$ 407.7$ 8,322.7$

2036 3,911.0$ 4,814.1$ 435.5$ 8,921.7$

2037 4,189.1$ 5,159.5$ 464.7$ 9,553.4$

2038 4,482.2$ 5,524.3$ 495.4$ 10,219.4$

2039 4,790.9$ 5,909.5$ 527.6$ 10,921.7$

2040 5,116.3$ 6,316.3$ 561.6$ 11,662.1$

2041 5,459.0$ 6,745.6$ 597.2$ 12,442.6$

*Any includes ADHD, ODD, CD, SUD, Mood, Anxiety, and Schizophrenia


Scenario

Reduction in Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Excluding Dementia*

in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)


Page | 154

B.1.10 DIRECT COSTS FOR DEMENTIA INCLUDING COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT

Figure 32 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

Figure 33 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Annual Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.

$-

$20,000.0

$40,000.0

$60,000.0

$80,000.0

$100,000.0

$120,000.0

$140,000.0

$160,000.0

$180,000.0

$200,000.0

Base Case Increase Remission

Reduce Incidence



Futu

re V

alu

e ($

Mil

lio

ns)

Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia* in Annual

Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041


$-

$2,000.0

$4,000.0

$6,000.0

$8,000.0

$10,000.0

$12,000.0

$14,000.0

$16,000.0

$18,000.0



Futu

re V

alu

e (

$ M

illi

on

s)

Scenario

Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia* in Annual Future Value Terms

2011 2021 2031 2041



Page | 155

Table 101 Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Canada in Future Value Terms for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios (in $ Millions).


Combined

Intervention

2011 19,738.0$ 19,738.0$ 19,738.0$ 19,738.0$ 19,738.0$

2012 21,264.6$ 21,264.7$ 21,054.8$ 21,264.7$ 21,054.8$

2013 22,906.0$ 22,906.1$ 22,475.1$ 22,906.0$ 22,475.2$

2014 24,675.4$ 24,675.7$ 24,011.5$ 24,675.5$ 24,011.9$

2015 26,589.8$ 26,590.4$ 25,680.0$ 26,589.9$ 25,680.7$

2016 28,668.0$ 28,668.9$ 27,498.0$ 28,668.2$ 27,499.1$

2017 30,930.0$ 30,931.5$ 29,484.5$ 30,930.3$ 29,486.1$

2018 33,396.6$ 33,398.6$ 31,658.8$ 33,397.1$ 31,661.0$

2019 36,088.8$ 36,091.5$ 34,040.7$ 36,089.4$ 34,043.7$

2020 39,027.8$ 39,031.2$ 36,650.2$ 39,028.5$ 36,654.0$

2021 42,234.3$ 42,238.7$ 39,506.7$ 42,235.2$ 39,511.6$

2022 45,728.8$ 45,734.4$ 42,629.4$ 45,729.9$ 42,635.5$

2023 49,530.9$ 49,537.7$ 46,036.5$ 49,532.2$ 46,043.9$

2024 53,658.7$ 53,667.0$ 49,745.0$ 53,660.3$ 49,753.9$

2025 58,129.2$ 58,139.2$ 53,770.5$ 58,131.1$ 53,781.2$

2026 62,957.8$ 62,969.7$ 58,127.3$ 62,960.1$ 58,140.0$

2027 68,158.4$ 68,172.4$ 62,828.4$ 68,161.0$ 62,843.3$

2028 73,743.4$ 73,759.8$ 67,885.2$ 73,746.5$ 67,902.6$

2029 79,724.2$ 79,743.4$ 73,308.2$ 79,727.7$ 73,328.5$

2030 86,110.9$ 86,133.2$ 79,106.9$ 86,115.0$ 79,130.4$

2031 92,913.0$ 92,938.8$ 85,289.9$ 92,917.7$ 85,317.1$

2032 100,139.0$ 100,168.7$ 91,865.2$ 100,144.3$ 91,896.5$

2033 107,796.9$ 107,831.1$ 98,840.3$ 107,803.0$ 98,876.1$

2034 115,894.5$ 115,933.6$ 106,222.0$ 115,901.3$ 106,262.9$

2035 124,439.0$ 124,483.7$ 114,017.2$ 124,446.7$ 114,063.7$

2036 133,438.1$ 133,489.0$ 122,232.6$ 133,446.7$ 122,285.3$

2037 142,899.8$ 142,957.5$ 130,875.4$ 142,909.4$ 130,934.9$

2038 152,832.9$ 152,898.1$ 139,953.4$ 152,843.6$ 140,020.6$

2039 163,247.6$ 163,321.0$ 149,475.8$ 163,259.4$ 149,551.3$

2040 174,156.0$ 174,238.4$ 159,453.2$ 174,168.9$ 159,537.8$

2041 185,443.7$ 185,535.9$ 169,780.8$ 185,457.9$ 169,875.1$


Estimated Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia* in Annual Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)

Scenario


Page | 156

Table 102 Estimated Reduction in Total Direct Mental Health Costs for Dementia Including Cognitive Impairment in Canada in Future Value Terms for the Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios (in $ Millions).


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 -$ -$ -$ -$

2012 -$ 209.8$ -$ 209.8$

2013 -$ 430.9$ -$ 430.7$

2014 -$ 663.8$ -$ 663.5$

2015 -$ 909.8$ -$ 909.1$

2016 -$ 1,169.9$ -$ 1,168.8$

2017 -$ 1,445.5$ -$ 1,443.9$

2018 -$ 1,737.8$ -$ 1,735.6$

2019 -$ 2,048.1$ -$ 2,045.1$

2020 -$ 2,377.6$ -$ 2,373.7$

2021 -$ 2,727.6$ -$ 2,722.7$

2022 -$ 3,099.4$ -$ 3,093.4$

2023 -$ 3,494.4$ -$ 3,487.0$

2024 -$ 3,913.7$ -$ 3,904.8$

2025 -$ 4,358.7$ -$ 4,348.0$

2026 -$ 4,830.5$ -$ 4,817.8$

2027 -$ 5,330.0$ -$ 5,315.0$

2028 -$ 5,858.2$ -$ 5,840.7$

2029 -$ 6,416.0$ -$ 6,395.6$

2030 -$ 7,004.0$ -$ 6,980.5$

2031 -$ 7,623.1$ -$ 7,595.9$

2032 -$ 8,273.7$ -$ 8,242.5$

2033 -$ 8,956.6$ -$ 8,920.9$

2034 -$ 9,672.5$ -$ 9,631.6$

2035 -$ 10,421.8$ -$ 10,375.4$

2036 -$ 11,205.6$ -$ 11,152.9$

2037 -$ 12,024.5$ -$ 11,964.9$

2038 -$ 12,879.5$ -$ 12,812.3$

2039 -$ 13,771.8$ -$ 13,696.4$

2040 -$ 14,702.7$ -$ 14,618.2$

2041 -$ 15,662.9$ -$ 15,568.6$

Reduction in Total Direct Costs for Dementia* in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)

Scenario


Page | 157

B.1.11 TOTAL DIRECT COSTS

Table 103 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions).


Combined

Intervention

2011 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$

2012 45,021.3$ 44,918.7$ 44,678.3$ 45,009.0$ 44,565.2$

2013 47,905.4$ 47,702.9$ 47,214.6$ 47,881.2$ 46,992.5$

2014 50,975.1$ 50,673.1$ 49,926.5$ 50,938.8$ 49,596.3$

2015 54,258.2$ 53,855.5$ 52,837.6$ 54,209.5$ 52,398.4$

2016 57,781.4$ 57,276.0$ 55,971.9$ 57,720.1$ 55,421.8$

2017 61,571.2$ 60,960.2$ 59,353.8$ 61,496.9$ 58,690.0$

2018 65,652.7$ 64,932.4$ 63,006.4$ 65,565.1$ 62,225.4$

2019 70,050.5$ 69,216.5$ 66,952.6$ 69,949.2$ 66,050.2$

2020 74,790.2$ 73,837.8$ 71,216.3$ 74,675.0$ 70,187.8$

2021 79,896.8$ 78,820.7$ 75,820.5$ 79,767.3$ 74,660.9$

2022 85,394.6$ 84,189.2$ 80,787.7$ 85,250.5$ 79,491.6$

2023 91,307.6$ 89,967.0$ 86,139.9$ 91,148.4$ 84,701.4$

2024 97,658.9$ 96,176.6$ 91,898.1$ 97,484.0$ 90,310.9$

2025 104,470.1$ 102,839.3$ 98,082.1$ 104,279.0$ 96,339.2$

2026 111,762.2$ 109,975.4$ 104,710.9$ 111,554.2$ 102,804.9$

2027 119,555.3$ 117,604.8$ 111,803.0$ 119,329.7$ 109,726.1$

2028 127,868.5$ 125,746.1$ 119,375.6$ 127,624.5$ 117,119.5$

2029 136,719.7$ 134,416.4$ 127,445.1$ 136,456.3$ 125,000.9$

2030 146,125.7$ 143,632.4$ 136,027.0$ 145,842.2$ 133,385.4$

2031 156,103.6$ 153,410.4$ 145,136.7$ 155,798.9$ 142,287.7$

2032 166,669.9$ 163,766.5$ 154,789.4$ 166,343.1$ 151,722.6$

2033 177,841.3$ 174,716.6$ 165,000.3$ 177,491.2$ 161,704.6$

2034 189,634.1$ 186,276.7$ 175,784.2$ 189,259.7$ 172,247.9$

2035 202,065.3$ 198,462.9$ 187,156.3$ 201,665.2$ 183,367.2$

2036 215,152.1$ 211,291.9$ 199,132.4$ 214,725.2$ 195,077.5$

2037 228,912.7$ 224,781.3$ 211,728.8$ 228,457.6$ 207,394.5$

2038 243,367.0$ 238,950.0$ 224,963.3$ 242,882.3$ 220,335.3$

2039 258,536.5$ 253,819.0$ 238,855.2$ 258,020.6$ 233,918.5$

2040 274,445.1$ 269,411.3$ 253,426.2$ 273,896.5$ 248,164.8$

2041 290,991.3$ 285,624.6$ 268,582.8$ 290,408.3$ 262,980.1$

*Any includes ADHD, ODD, CD, SUD, Mood, Anxiety, Schizophrenia and Dementia


Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Incuding Dementia* in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)

Scenario


Page | 158

Table 104 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions).


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 -$ -$ -$ -$

2012 102.6$ 343.0$ 12.3$ 456.1$

2013 202.6$ 690.8$ 24.3$ 912.9$

2014 302.0$ 1,048.7$ 36.3$ 1,378.9$

2015 402.6$ 1,420.6$ 48.7$ 1,859.8$

2016 505.4$ 1,809.5$ 61.3$ 2,359.6$

2017 611.0$ 2,217.4$ 74.4$ 2,881.3$

2018 720.3$ 2,646.3$ 87.7$ 3,427.4$

2019 833.9$ 3,097.9$ 101.3$ 4,000.3$

2020 952.4$ 3,573.9$ 115.2$ 4,602.4$

2021 1,076.1$ 4,076.3$ 129.5$ 5,235.8$

2022 1,205.4$ 4,606.9$ 144.1$ 5,903.0$

2023 1,340.6$ 5,167.7$ 159.2$ 6,606.2$

2024 1,482.3$ 5,760.8$ 174.9$ 7,348.0$

2025 1,630.8$ 6,388.0$ 191.1$ 8,130.9$

2026 1,786.8$ 7,051.3$ 208.0$ 8,957.2$

2027 1,950.5$ 7,752.4$ 225.6$ 9,829.2$

2028 2,122.5$ 8,493.0$ 244.0$ 10,749.0$

2029 2,303.3$ 9,274.6$ 263.3$ 11,718.8$

2030 2,493.3$ 10,098.8$ 283.5$ 12,740.4$

2031 2,693.2$ 10,966.9$ 304.7$ 13,815.9$

2032 2,903.4$ 11,880.5$ 326.8$ 14,947.3$

2033 3,124.7$ 12,841.0$ 350.1$ 16,136.7$

2034 3,357.4$ 13,850.0$ 374.5$ 17,386.2$

2035 3,602.4$ 14,909.0$ 400.1$ 18,698.0$

2036 3,860.2$ 16,019.7$ 426.9$ 20,074.6$

2037 4,131.5$ 17,184.0$ 455.1$ 21,518.2$

2038 4,417.0$ 18,403.8$ 484.7$ 23,031.8$

2039 4,717.5$ 19,681.3$ 515.9$ 24,618.0$

2040 5,033.8$ 21,019.0$ 548.6$ 26,280.3$

2041 5,366.7$ 22,408.5$ 583.0$ 28,011.2$



Reduction in Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Including Dementia*

in Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)

Scenario


Page | 159

Table 105 Estimated Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions).


Combined

Intervention

2011 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$ 42,295.0$

2012 86,005.0$ 85,905.3$ 85,671.9$ 85,993.0$ 85,562.1$

2013 131,160.4$ 130,869.9$ 130,176.3$ 131,125.6$ 129,857.1$

2014 177,809.9$ 177,242.9$ 175,866.1$ 177,741.8$ 175,244.7$

2015 226,017.6$ 225,092.9$ 222,811.5$ 225,906.3$ 221,799.9$

2016 275,860.3$ 274,499.7$ 271,093.4$ 275,696.1$ 269,607.3$

2017 327,425.3$ 325,552.9$ 320,801.3$ 327,198.8$ 318,759.2$

2018 380,807.0$ 378,348.9$ 372,031.3$ 380,509.2$ 369,354.1$

2019 436,105.4$ 432,989.1$ 424,884.3$ 435,727.7$ 421,494.7$

2020 493,425.9$ 489,579.6$ 479,465.7$ 492,959.9$ 475,287.8$

2021 552,876.6$ 548,229.5$ 535,883.2$ 552,314.2$ 530,842.6$

2022 614,567.5$ 609,049.7$ 594,246.0$ 613,901.0$ 588,269.1$

2023 678,608.8$ 672,150.7$ 654,662.7$ 677,830.6$ 647,676.9$

2024 745,109.8$ 737,642.3$ 717,240.9$ 744,212.5$ 709,174.2$

2025 814,176.8$ 805,631.2$ 782,084.7$ 813,153.2$ 772,865.8$

2026 885,912.8$ 876,220.2$ 849,294.6$ 884,755.6$ 838,852.4$

2027 960,415.7$ 949,507.7$ 918,966.5$ 959,117.9$ 907,230.0$

2028 1,037,778.2$ 1,025,586.1$ 991,190.7$ 1,036,332.8$ 978,089.3$

2029 1,118,086.6$ 1,104,541.6$ 1,066,051.3$ 1,116,486.6$ 1,051,514.1$

2030 1,201,420.0$ 1,186,453.2$ 1,143,625.6$ 1,199,658.3$ 1,127,582.0$

2031 1,287,850.9$ 1,271,392.7$ 1,223,984.3$ 1,285,920.4$ 1,206,363.2$

2032 1,377,444.2$ 1,359,425.3$ 1,307,191.2$ 1,375,338.0$ 1,287,921.6$

2033 1,470,258.2$ 1,450,608.6$ 1,393,303.6$ 1,467,969.3$ 1,372,314.0$

2034 1,566,344.2$ 1,544,993.5$ 1,482,372.0$ 1,563,865.6$ 1,459,590.6$

2035 1,665,747.0$ 1,642,624.1$ 1,574,440.5$ 1,663,071.6$ 1,549,795.1$

2036 1,768,504.8$ 1,743,538.3$ 1,669,547.3$ 1,765,625.5$ 1,642,965.2$

2037 1,874,650.4$ 1,847,768.1$ 1,767,724.8$ 1,871,560.1$ 1,739,133.0$

2038 1,984,211.6$ 1,955,340.9$ 1,869,000.7$ 1,980,903.1$ 1,838,325.5$

2039 2,097,211.9$ 2,066,279.2$ 1,973,398.8$ 2,093,677.9$ 1,940,565.8$

2040 2,213,671.7$ 2,180,603.0$ 2,080,939.2$ 2,209,904.9$ 2,045,873.7$

2041 2,333,556.3$ 2,298,276.5$ 2,191,591.9$ 2,329,549.3$ 2,154,218.0$



Scenario

Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Incuding Dementia* in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions)


Page | 160

Table 106 Estimated Reduction in the Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions).


Reduce Relative

Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 -$ -$ -$ -$

2012 99.7$ 333.1$ 12.0$ 442.9$

2013 290.6$ 984.2$ 34.8$ 1,303.4$

2014 567.0$ 1,943.9$ 68.1$ 2,565.3$

2015 924.7$ 3,206.1$ 111.3$ 4,217.7$

2016 1,360.7$ 4,766.9$ 164.2$ 6,253.1$

2017 1,872.4$ 6,624.0$ 226.5$ 8,666.1$

2018 2,458.1$ 8,775.7$ 297.8$ 11,452.9$

2019 3,116.4$ 11,221.1$ 377.8$ 14,610.7$

2020 3,846.3$ 13,960.2$ 466.0$ 18,138.1$

2021 4,647.1$ 16,993.4$ 562.4$ 22,034.0$

2022 5,517.8$ 20,321.5$ 666.5$ 26,298.4$

2023 6,458.1$ 23,946.1$ 778.2$ 30,931.9$

2024 7,467.5$ 27,868.9$ 897.3$ 35,935.6$

2025 8,545.6$ 32,092.1$ 1,023.6$ 41,311.0$

2026 9,692.5$ 36,618.1$ 1,157.1$ 47,060.4$

2027 10,908.0$ 41,449.1$ 1,297.7$ 53,185.6$

2028 12,192.1$ 46,587.5$ 1,445.4$ 59,688.9$

2029 13,545.0$ 52,035.3$ 1,600.0$ 66,572.4$

2030 14,966.8$ 57,794.4$ 1,761.7$ 73,838.1$

2031 16,458.1$ 63,866.6$ 1,930.4$ 81,487.7$

2032 18,018.9$ 70,253.0$ 2,106.2$ 89,522.6$

2033 19,649.6$ 76,954.6$ 2,288.9$ 97,944.2$

2034 21,350.6$ 83,972.1$ 2,478.5$ 106,753.6$

2035 23,122.9$ 91,306.5$ 2,675.4$ 115,951.9$

2036 24,966.5$ 98,957.5$ 2,879.2$ 125,539.6$

2037 26,882.3$ 106,925.6$ 3,090.3$ 135,517.4$

2038 28,870.7$ 115,210.9$ 3,308.5$ 145,886.1$

2039 30,932.6$ 123,813.1$ 3,533.9$ 156,646.1$

2040 33,068.7$ 132,732.4$ 3,766.7$ 167,797.9$

2041 35,279.9$ 141,964.5$ 4,007.0$ 179,338.3$



Scenario

Reduction in Total Direct Costs for Any* Mental Illnesses in Canada Including Dementia*

in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions)


Page | 161

B.1.12 INDIRECT COSTS

Table 107 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Annual Future Value Terms (in $ Millions).

Year Reduced Disability Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,583.5$ -$ -$ -$ 1,584.6$

2012 1,756.7$ -$ 31.3$ 4.1$ 1,769.3$

2013 1,893.8$ -$ 72.9$ 8.4$ 1,932.7$

2014 2,003.6$ -$ 123.6$ 15.6$ 2,082.2$

2015 2,022.4$ -$ 129.2$ 16.4$ 2,107.8$

2016 2,052.7$ -$ 135.0$ 17.3$ 2,148.1$

2017 2,098.9$ 2.6$ 142.5$ 18.2$ 2,209.2$

2018 2,155.1$ 19.5$ 151.5$ 19.8$ 2,284.2$

2019 2,215.9$ 39.3$ 162.7$ 21.6$ 2,368.9$

2020 2,292.7$ 62.5$ 175.6$ 23.6$ 2,473.5$

2021 2,377.4$ 88.6$ 191.9$ 25.6$ 2,591.8$

2022 2,463.4$ 117.4$ 211.2$ 28.8$ 2,713.8$

2023 2,555.5$ 148.1$ 232.0$ 31.5$ 2,848.1$

2024 2,648.3$ 181.8$ 257.0$ 35.1$ 2,987.5$

2025 2,744.4$ 217.3$ 285.3$ 38.8$ 3,136.8$

2026 2,851.9$ 260.3$ 319.3$ 43.0$ 3,303.3$

2027 3,011.5$ 319.8$ 359.4$ 48.0$ 3,546.0$

2028 3,180.6$ 385.4$ 405.5$ 53.7$ 3,807.1$

2029 3,359.1$ 455.3$ 457.7$ 60.6$ 4,087.6$

2030 3,541.0$ 530.3$ 515.9$ 67.9$ 4,381.5$

2031 3,735.6$ 608.7$ 580.4$ 76.0$ 4,698.4$

2032 3,938.2$ 693.1$ 653.5$ 84.9$ 5,034.0$

2033 4,234.4$ 795.9$ 745.3$ 95.4$ 5,493.0$

2034 4,546.6$ 905.7$ 846.2$ 107.0$ 5,979.2$

2035 4,856.5$ 1,016.3$ 955.3$ 118.2$ 6,472.9$

2036 5,186.8$ 1,131.2$ 1,064.8$ 132.4$ 6,989.3$

2037 5,455.0$ 1,249.9$ 1,184.6$ 146.3$ 7,446.5$

2038 5,863.9$ 1,368.7$ 1,308.1$ 158.6$ 8,064.9$

2039 6,179.3$ 1,496.3$ 1,442.3$ 175.1$ 8,602.0$

2040 6,578.8$ 1,624.2$ 1,586.0$ 187.7$ 9,188.1$

2041 6,786.4$ 1,735.9$ 1,715.5$ 205.0$ 9,622.3$


Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Annual Future Value Terms (in $ Millions)

Scenario


Page | 162

Table 108 Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Mental Illnesses Including Dementia* in Canada in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $ Millions).

Year Reduced Disability Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk

Combined

Intervention

2011 1,583.5$ -$ -$ -$ 1,584.6$

2012 3,289.0$ -$ 30.3$ 3.9$ 3,302.4$

2013 5,074.1$ -$ 99.0$ 11.8$ 5,124.1$

2014 6,907.6$ -$ 212.2$ 26.1$ 7,029.6$

2015 8,704.6$ -$ 327.0$ 40.6$ 8,902.4$

2016 10,475.2$ -$ 443.4$ 55.5$ 10,755.4$

2017 12,233.0$ -$ 562.8$ 70.8$ 12,605.5$

2018 13,985.3$ -$ 686.0$ 86.9$ 14,462.8$

2019 15,734.5$ -$ 814.4$ 104.0$ 16,332.8$

2020 17,491.7$ 17.4$ 949.0$ 122.0$ 18,228.5$

2021 19,260.7$ 83.3$ 1,091.8$ 141.1$ 20,157.1$

2022 21,040.3$ 168.2$ 1,244.3$ 161.9$ 22,117.6$

2023 22,832.7$ 272.0$ 1,407.0$ 184.0$ 24,115.2$

2024 24,636.0$ 395.8$ 1,582.0$ 207.9$ 26,149.5$

2025 26,450.4$ 539.5$ 1,770.7$ 233.5$ 28,223.3$

2026 28,280.9$ 706.6$ 1,975.6$ 261.1$ 30,343.6$

2027 30,157.6$ 905.9$ 2,199.6$ 291.0$ 32,553.4$

2028 32,081.9$ 1,139.0$ 2,445.0$ 323.5$ 34,856.7$

2029 34,055.0$ 1,406.5$ 2,713.8$ 359.1$ 37,257.8$

2030 36,074.4$ 1,708.9$ 3,008.0$ 397.8$ 39,756.5$

2031 38,142.7$ 2,045.9$ 3,329.4$ 439.9$ 42,357.9$

2032 40,259.7$ 2,418.5$ 3,680.7$ 485.6$ 45,063.8$

2033 42,469.6$ 2,833.9$ 4,069.6$ 535.4$ 47,930.6$

2034 44,773.3$ 3,292.8$ 4,498.4$ 589.6$ 50,960.2$

2035 47,162.4$ 3,792.8$ 4,968.3$ 647.7$ 54,144.4$

2036 49,639.6$ 4,333.0$ 5,476.9$ 710.9$ 57,482.6$

2037 52,169.1$ 4,912.6$ 6,026.2$ 778.8$ 60,935.4$

2038 54,808.9$ 5,528.7$ 6,615.1$ 850.2$ 64,566.2$

2039 57,509.7$ 6,182.7$ 7,245.5$ 926.7$ 68,325.9$

2040 60,301.4$ 6,872.0$ 7,918.5$ 1,006.4$ 72,224.8$

2041 63,097.3$ 7,587.2$ 8,625.2$ 1,090.8$ 76,189.1$


Scenario

Estimated Total Indirect Economic Benefits for Any* Disorder Including Dementia in Cumulative Present Value Terms (in $

Millions)

life and economic impact of hypothetical intervention ... · life and economic impact of...

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