limits to growth meadows
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Perspectives on Limits to Growth37 Years Later
Dennis Meadows
R09
Davos, Switzerland14 September, 2009
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Exercise
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The reference scenarioOriginalReport
Today
Industrial
Output
Population
Pollution
Food
Resources
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Main insights from the scenarios
In 1972 we expected another 40-50 years of physical growth onaverage around the world without major problems.
The timing for the end of growth was not known precisely, butall our scenarios showed it occurring in the period 2020-2050.
Radical changes in technology were useful for slightly delayingthe end of growth, but they did not permit growth to continue
past 2050.
Social changes were required to achieve the most attractivefutures.
What we today call problems are actually symptoms of naturalforces rising until they can end physical growth.
Fossil fuel depletion is not a unique symptom, except that it willappear earlier than many other limits.
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The major problems come before
the end of growth, not after
Most people believe that the big problems would be
during the period of decline. This is wrong.
In order to stop growth, social, economic,biological, and economic pressures must grow until
they equal the forces that produce growth. Now the
forces promoting growth are strongest. So the
biggest problems will come before the peak.
Consequently, there will be more changes in the
next 2-3 decades than there have been in the past
100 years.
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World population
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Industrial production
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Index of world metals use
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1990 2007
0
100
250
NickelCopper
ZincIron OreBauxite
World GDP
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One Indicator of Overshoot
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Index of Capital to Obtain
Resources
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009, p. 42.
35%
24%
29%
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My first
visit to CH
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My
Birth
Year
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Gap between discovery and use
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Oil discovery controlled by
desired reserve ratio
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Cost to Discover New Oil
% Remaining
0 100
Costof
Discovery
Approximate
Current Position
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Oil discovery is now controlled
by cost, not by desired reserve ratio
Undiscovered
Oil
Discovered
OilDiscovery
Rate
Usage
Rate
Cost of
DiscoveryReserve
Ratio
Investment
in DiscoveryUse
Per Person
Population
Desired
Reserve Ratio
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Global Oil Production Profile
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Four Factors Determine the
Amount of Oil Consumption
Dennis Meadows
Oil Con-sumption
=Number
ofPeople
XUnits of
Capital/Person
X X
EnergyRequired
Per Capital
Unit
Fraction of
EnergyFrom Oil
Immigration
& Fertility
Lifestyle
& Culture EfficiencyAlternative
Energy
TechnologySociology
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Oil Price Results
From 4 FactorsSpeculators Margin
Supply/demand multiplier
Producers Margin
Production Cost
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Depletion and oil price
Speculators Margin
Supply/demand multiplier
Producers Margin
Production Cost
Depletion
+
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Oil Price Results
From 4 FactorsSpeculators Margin
Supply/demand multiplier
Producers Margin
Production Cost
Depletion
Monopoly
Control
Rapid Price Change
SupplyProblems
# of Producers-
-
+
+
++
+
+
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Two sources of difficult
problems in the energy sector
The increased capital requirements of the
energy sector will reduce potential forgrowth in other sectors.
The decline of free energy will force drastic
changes in technology and lifestyle.
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Energy Return on Investment
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Some Net Energy Yields
US Oil 1930 - 100; 1970 - 30; 2005 - 15
Imported Oil - 30
Coal - 10 - 80
Nuclear - 10
Firewood - 25
Photovoltaics - 15-45
Oil Sands - 2-3
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Principles for action - 1
Recognize that until physical growth is halted on this planet, there
is no possibility of avoiding ever rising problems. Develop the government, corporate, and cultural capacity for
sustained long-term action, even when the necessary solutionsmake the of short-term problems seem worse. Remember you donot have to develop these changes within precisely the currentsystem; as that will change anyway.
Expect the present market system to magnify problems, not avoidthem.
Remember there are enormous delays between action and
response; so take action before it is obviously needed. Social and cultural policies will give better results than economic
and technical policies. Focus on getting enough rather than ongetting more.
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Principles for action - 2
Do not use economic discounting methods to find
solutions for problems that produce irreversible results
Expect problems to appear suddenly and in
combination.
Realize that no one fully understands these systems. Realize that government will be overloaded and will
make mistakes.
Forget about going back to the past conditions. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Preventing damage is cheaper than repairing it.
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I have two pens
Montblanc
Sundance
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The Montblanc Pen
I use it for writing.
It is made from platinum and precious
resin.
It cost about US $250.
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Which pen is more sustainable?
Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to
the Sundance as pen #2.
Please decide which pen you think is moresustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers
silently to the person sitting next to you.
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More information
I never take the Montblanc pen out of my
office, so I will use it the rest of my life andthen pass it on to a relative.
I lose the Sundance pen almost every time I
take it away from my home, so I have to buymany dozens of them each year.
When the Montblanc pen ink cartridge becomes
empty, I buy a refill. If I still have the Sundance pen when its ink
cartridge becomes empty, I will throw the pen
away and get a new one.
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I will ask again:
Which pen is more sustainable?
Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to
the Sundance as pen #2. Please decide which pen you think is more
sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers
silently to the person sitting next to you.
M i L
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Main Lessons Many votes changed after the new information.
The new information did not describe the pensphysical technology; it described my relationship,
habits, and attitudes toward the pens.
Sustainability is not mainly in the physicaltechnology of the tool, it is in our relationship to
the tool.
Achieving sustainable development in the next
two decades will require changes in attitudes and
goals.