linard_1998-system dynamics modeling of defence problems _ presentation to army chiefs

8/9/2019 Linard_1998-System Dynamics Modeling of Defence Problems _ Presentation to Army Chiefs

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University of New South Wales

Australian Defence Force Academy

University Research

Supporting

Defence

School of Civil Engineering

Post Graduate Research Projects

in

System Dynamics

keithlinard#@#yahoo.co.uk

(Remove hashes to email)


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System Dynamics Research in the School of Civil Engineering

Introduction

The System Dynamics Group responds to the identified need by the Defence Organisation for

system dynamics research and for executive education in system dynamics and systems thinking.

System Dynamics at the University College

Keith Linard, senior lecturer in Civil Engineering, introduced System Dynamics into the teaching

and research framework of the University College from 1989. The development of the field has

been greatly enhanced through the 2 year posting to the ADFA, in 1997, of MAJ David Paterson as

Defence Research Fellow.

25 coursework Masters students and 3 Research Masters students are currently undertaking studies

in this field. A further 3 Research Masters / PhD applicants are being considered.

System Dynamics Modeling in Defence

System Dynamics has been used in defence simulations for UK, USA, Canada and NATO for over

20 years. Areas addressed include combat modelling, operation and maintenance of tank, aircraft,

surface ship and submarine forces, defence budget optimisation and counter terrorist operations.In 1995 the Directorate of Army Research and Analysis recommended the use of System Dynamics

modelling in areas such as:

logistic support of deployed forces,

personnel support in time of conflict,

preparedness and mobilisation planning, and

prioritisation of expenditure in the FYDP.

System Dynamics Research for the Australian Defence Force

An overview of the main research work undertaken by the School of Civil Engineering is provided

in the following pages.

In essence the ADFA research aims to develop decision support systems which:

1. Assist senior defence executives to understand better the systemic and dynamic

interrelationships of decisions made at different levels within the hierarchy and between

program or functional areas

2. Assist defence program managers to develop and test program performance indicators to

ensure that they appropriately address feedback dynamics

3. Provide decision support tools to help understand the implications for defence capability of:

a) alternative aggregate levels of budget allocation

b) alternative allocation of a given budget between competing force elements

c) alternative allocation of resources between competing functional requirements

(personnel, equipment, maintenance, training)

4. Provide the basis of a command and control capability for assessing the systemic

implications of lower level command decisions.


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Spreadsheet Modelling & System Dynamics Modelling

Traditional computer models, whether built in spreadsheets or high level computer languages,

tend to focus on the mathematical relationships, hiding the underlying conceptual framework. This

creates problems in validating with subject area experts the model logic and in communicating to

decision makers the reason for behavioural patterns. Also, questioning the conceptual framework

and logic is an essential part of executive learning.

100 0.3 30

10000.25 250

500 0.4 200

75 0.4 30

1675

A1 0.3 A1*B2

A2 0.25 A2*B2

5*A1 0.4 A3*B3

A1-25 0.4 A4*B4

Sum(x) Sum(y)

Sum(z)100 0.3 30

1000 0.25 250

500 0.4 200

75 0.4 30

1675 510

2185

?

Spreadsheet models:

assume uni-directional linear causality

emphasise numerical inputs and outputs

logical relationships between numbersare hidden and difficult to follow

conceptual framework is obscureNumbers

Relationships

Conceptual framework

System Dynamics Modelling starts with the conceptual framework, particularly the feedback

relationships. The logic is mapped diagramatically, facilitating communication with both subject

area expert and decision makers. The logic map automatically generates the structure of the

underlying mathematics. The tools facilitate deeper level learning.

System Dynamic models:address delayed feedback causality

emphasise meaning and relationships

conceptual framework is 'mapped'

logic is developed & displayeddiagramatically

numbers are kept in background &are readily called upon

Numbers

Relationships

ConceptualFramework


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The System Dynamics Graphical Language

The essential logic of the system under investigation is mapped graphically as shown below. This

graphical structure facilitates both the challenging of underlying model assumptions and the

explanation of counterintuitive model output.

Logical Relationships Developed Graphically

Obviously, complex models require complex mathematics. The software (Powersim)

automatically generates the structure of the nth order differential equations necessary for solving

complex feedback problems, cutting development time and reducing errors.

Structure of Equations Generated from Logic Map


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The System Dynamics Graphical Language

The underlying concept of the ADFA defence preparedness modelling is illustrated in the figure

below. The models address both peacetime operational requirements and training requirements.

The models take as given the mission profile and force structure required for MLOC and OLOC

(which might be determined or validated by existing sophisticated tactical and strategic models).The models also draw on defence systems which produce the costing of platform activities (e.g.,

RAAFs AFRAM system or NAVYs proposed Activity Based Costing system).

Key features of the model feedback structures are:

time between training serials results in skill decay; maintenance of MLOC or OLOC requires

continued resource inputs.

staff turnover impacts on training demand.

training staff turnover impacts on ability to maintain skill levels or to ramp up staff numbers.

training demand and intensity impact both on equipment available for training and on equipment

maintenance requirements.

equipment maintenance capacity impacts on ability to ramp up to MLOC or OLOC.

The impact of resourcing decisions and changes in personnel profiles may not be evident for several

years. The time dynamics of this modelling approach help managers appreciate such delayed

feedback implications.

ADFA Defence Preparedness Resource Models

Components ofForce Structure

LevelofCapability

OLOC

MLOC

PLOC

TimePersonnel

Equipment

Training

CurrentCapability Gap

Increasing gap withfunding constraints

Deployment Time

Operational ViabilityPeriod

WorkupTraining

AssemblyPeriod

Normal Peace TimeActivity Levels

ExpansionDirective

Notice to Move(from CPD)

Deployment

The Mission Profile isdetermined from thecontingency plans.

Associated force structureis tested by specialised

tactical & strategic models.

Given the force structure required for MLOC and OLOC:

The ADFA System Dynamics DPRM modelling simulates thefeedback and delay interactions associated personnel, trainingand equipment levels and maintenance to identify

cost of maintaining MLOC or ramping to OLOC

ability to maintain / reach MLOC or OLOC for given resourcing


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5th

Aviation Regiment - Resource - Readiness Simulator

Description: Suite of interrelated models addressing top level resourcing decisions,

personnel management decisions, Aviation Support doctrine, Divisional

decisions and Regimental decisions. This system may be used as a simulation game to assist the various decision

makers understand the interrelationships between resourcing and other

decisions at higher levels and unit capability.

User Inputs: annual budget (translated into flying hours)

manning targets and posting cycles for GSO & SSO

doctrine (training intensity for roles, safety regs)

monthly ops targets

tasking to maintain readiness and to meet specific deployment scenario

(Games Master): Deployment scenario and Notice to Move

Outputs: multiplicity of performance reports specific to each player

readiness performance achieved for deployment scenario (actual days to

move compared with NTM)

Figure 1: Typical Reports to Assist Gameplayer Decisions

Clients Preparedness and Mobilisation Branch, ADHQ

C3I Development Branch, ADHQ

5th

Aviation Regiment

Status (Active) ADFA Postgraduate Research Project

Clients have working prototype. Under consideration for full development in

C3I Development Branch project in 1998.


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Navy Aviation Pilot Training

Description: Models relationship between personnel, training and maintenance

management to understand problems in achieving pilot strength targets.

User Inputs:

Aircraft by number by type Pilot billet targets by rank, by pilot proficiency, by aircraft type

Maintenance rules and maintenance capacity

Pilot promotion rules

Outputs: Qualified pilot numbers by aircraft type

Flying bill to graduate target pilots

Maintenance bill to graduate target pilots

Figure 2: Conceptual model of Navy Aviation Manpower Planning Model

Figure 3: Pilots in Training by Aircraft Type

Clients NAVY Training Cmd

HMAS Albatross

Status (Completed) ADFA (UNISEARCH) Contract.

Client has model and report.


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Submarine Fleet Capability

Description: Models Collins Class Submarine operational availability over 25 year time

horizon taking into account:

commissioning dates

work-up training to OLOC for various CPD roles

training currency and decay relationships

User Inputs: scheduled & unscheduled maintenance

minimum time in port

desired boats on station and time to station

roles & mission profiles

Outputs: cost to maintain MLOC / OLOC status

on station availability availability for specific CPD roles

identification of maintenance facilities bottlenecks

impact of multi-crewing options on availability

Figure 4: Illustrative 'On Station' Availability


C3I Development Branch, ADHQCASS HQ


Clients have working prototypes. Under consideration for full development in

C3I Development Branch project in 1998.


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Long Range Off-Shore Patrol Boats - Double Crewing

Description: Models impact on capability of multiple ship crewing.

User Inputs: mission profiles

multiple crewing options

desired boats on station and time to station

Outputs: crew and ship activity rates

impact of multi-crewing options on availability

Figure 5: Illustrative User Input Controls and Report

Clients LROS Patrol Boat Project Office

Status (Completed) ADFA Postgraduate Research Project. Further work on multi-

crewing issue proposed in 1998.

Clients have working prototypes and report.


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Manpower Required in Uniform

Description: Models the population profile of skill group by rank given:

rank mix

promotion policies

separation rates

This general purpose module is used both to analyse variations to conditions of

service or to provide the personnel input to the preparedness models.

User Inputs: strength targets by rank

promotion policies

productivity assumptions by rank

Outputs: iteratively modifies strength mix by rank to identify optimal rank structure

to sustain SNCO positions

effective productivity

identification of promotion bottlenecks

Figure 6: Strength by Rank & Years of Service

Figure 7: Availability for Promotion c.f. Requirement


C3I Development Branch, ADHQ

CASS HQ


Clients have working prototypes.


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Optimising Construction Vehicle Fleets

Description: Models the efficiency and availability of construction resources to complete

specified tasks under equipment and command and control constraints.

User Inputs:

2

nd

and 3

rd

line maintenance capacity in Area of Operations Unit construction vehicle pool configuration

project magnitudes and task breakdown structure

productivity assumptions

Outputs: vehicle maintenance demand

maintenance backlogs

vehicle availability by type

impact of geographic dispersal

Figure 8: Construction Vehicle Performance Evaluation

Clients 17 Construction Squadron

Status (Completed) ADFA Postgraduate support to Unit planning process. Furtherdevelopment work proposed for 1998.

Client has working prototype.


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Army Phased Careers Management

Description: Simulates the introduction of a phased careers system of Army General

Service Officer career management. It replicates the career patterns of

officers in two streams: the Command and Management stream and the

Specialist Staff stream. Officers who are no longer competitive in the C&Mstream may be invited to transition to the Staff stream at various key

decision points in their career.

User Inputs: target strength by rank by Corps

promotion, recycle and separation rates

career stream transfer rates

Outputs: strength gap by rank by Corps

staff profiles by rank, by years of service, time in rank

Figure 9: Evaluating Phased Careers Options

Clients DOCM-A

Status (Completed) ADFA Postgraduate Research Project. Further work under

consideration for 1998.

Client has working prototype and report.


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4 RAR - Assault Capability

Description: Models the impact of resource constraints (in respect of ammunition only)

on ability to sustain Assault Capability for required Notice to Move,

given doctrinal training requirements..

User Inputs: ammunition required in doctrine for currency training

variation in actual ammunition stocks from training doctrine specification

Outputs: ammunition usage

current readiness compared with Notice to Move for 3 Companies

Figure 10: Maintenance of Assault Capability with Full

Resources

Clients 4 RAR

Status (Completed) ADFA Postgraduate Research Project. Further development under

consideration for 1998.

Client has working prototype and report.


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Veterans Affairs Supply - Demand Model

Description: Policy decision support model for Department of Veterans Affairs.

Identifies portfolio costs resulting from changes in entitlements (due to

policy change) or changes in demand for services. Tracks demographic

shifts over time in eligible population, including new clients from definedconflicts.

Potential application to lifecycle costing of changes in conditions of service

for subsets of defence population

User Inputs: diverse policy levers affecting supply and demand.

specification of eligible population from new conflict.

Outputs: budget impact of variations in any of the supply or demand levers.

population by card holder category

Figure 11: Control Panel of DVA Supply-Demand Model

Clients Department of Veterans Affairs

Status (Completed) ADFA Postgraduate Research Project. Likely to be implemented

fully under UNISEARCH contract in 1998.

Client has working prototype and report


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Parachute Training

Description: Conceptual model broadly based on 3RAR parachute training process. Its

purpose, however, is to teach managers the feedback interaction of training

rates and personnel promotion policies on personnel availability and ability

to meet ongoing and ramp-up staffing requirements.

User Inputs: training policy (number of jumps per year)

personnel promotion and transfer policies.

Outputs: staffing profiles resulting from different training policies

personnel numbers by rank against targets

Figure 12: Relationship Between Training & Personnel

Clients Various



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Sydney Basin Petroleum Distribution

Description: Models petroleum products distribution throughout the Sydney region,

taking into account metropolitan and regional storage, pipeline capacity,

refinery and tanker resupply capacities.

Model provides a prototype for simulating logistics supply routes in Area of

Operations in support of operations.

User Inputs: seasonal product demand pattern by region

supplementary tanker ordering

input shocks to supply (refinery breakdown, supply ship delay).

Outputs: unfulfilled demand by region

supply bottlenecks

loss of customers to competitors pipeline usage against capacity

Figure 13: Performance of Petroleum Distribution System

Clients Commercial Petroleum Company

Status (Completed) ADFA (UNISEARCH) contract. Model and report with client.

linard_1998-system dynamics modeling of defence problems _ presentation to army chiefs

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