linking energy and environmental changes through statistics

Linking energy and environmental Linking energy and environmental changes through statisticschanges through statistics

Duncan Millard

Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK

[email protected]

IAOS Conference

October 2010

CONTENT

•Overview

• Understanding the drivers of energy use

• Providing data to promote and support action

•Adapting statistics to changes in energy production and use

•Informing policies by understanding their implications

OVERVIEW

• Legally-binding domestic target to cut UK emissions by at least 34% by 2020 and at least 80% by 2050

• Accept that the UK should be prepared to take on a higher 2020 target and tighter carbon budgets but that should be as part of a deal that sees the EU take on a higher 2020 target.

• Target of 15% of final energy consumption from renewables by 2020

UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS

UK GHG emissions by gas type, 2008


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1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

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Industry Transport Domestic Other final users

Final energy consumption by sector, 1970 to 2009

•Total consumption little changed 1970 to 2009

•Significant changes: Transport 19% in 1970, 39% in 2009;Industry 43% to 19%;Domestic 25% to 30%

•Traditional view shows nothing on use

Non-transport energy consumption by end use: 2008


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Domestic

Industrial

Service

Space heating Water Lighting/ Appliances Process use Other


• Heat use accounts for nearly half of CO2 emissions

Domestic heat20%

Services heat7%

Industrial heat20%

Transport24%

Other29%

Domestic final energy consumption by end use: 1970 to 2008


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Space heating Water Cooking Lighting and appliances

•Between 1970 and 2000 the energy use for heat increased by 30 per cent, the average annual increase was 1 per cent.

•In the period 2000 to 2008 the energy use for heat decreased by 8 per cent with the average annual decrease of 1 per cent.

•In the period 1970 to 2008 the energy use for appliances increased by 175 per cent with the average annual increase of 3 per cent.

GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT LOCAL LEVEL

• Strong demand for local area data to support local action on reducing

• Worked with electricity and gas suppliers to obtain data from their administrative systems. Built up support by showing will protect individual data

• Annual consumption recorded by 30 million electricity meters and 25 million gas meters in GB.

• Electricity and gas consumption data published for Local Authorities and standard census areas for domestic and non-domestic use

• Data published 12 to 14 months after the year which they relate to.

• Individual meter data also used in aggregated form to understand impact of policies

PROVIDING DATA TO PROMOTE AND SUPPORT ACTION

GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT METER POINT

LEVEL

• Meters have postcodes associated to them, so can be allocated to various geographical areas.

• However we cannot publish data that would be statistically disclosive.

• Strong response to user needs reflected in RSS award for these data

• e.g. In Northumberland used for profiling work, In Cornwall for deployment of renewables; In Norwich for local carbon reduction measures

Geography Approx number of homes/areas

England, Wales, and Scotland – Local Authority level (LAU1, NUTS4)

Homes varies, 40100 LAs in Great Britain

England and Wales – MSOAScotland – IG

2000 homes/7,000 areas

En gland and Wales – LSOA (Domestic only) 400 homes/34,000 areas


Other data at local levelOther data at local level

Road Transporto Consumption of Petrol & diesel by:

• Cars• Buses• HGVs• LGVs• Motorcycles

o Modelled for UK LAs using:• CO2 emissions data• Local traffic flow data• Fuel consumption factors

Other fuelso Covers the use of:

• Petroleum products• Coal• Manufactured solid fuels• Renewables and wastes

o Modelled for UK LAs using: • CO2 emissions data• Population• Employment

Data sets produced annuallyproduced annually, between 18 and 23 months after year end as part of the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory contract by AEA Energy and Environment.

LA electricity and gas data combined with AEA data on transport and other fuels to produce LA emissions dataLA emissions data


ADAPTING DATA SYSTEMS - RENEWABLES

• Target of 15% of final energy consumption from renewables by 2020

• Renewables tend to be more complex to measure (different technologies, smaller operators)

• Increasing importance drives need for more frequent data

• Multiple policy drivers all needing adaption to systems

– Renewables Obligation

– Feed in Tariffs (for very small scale renewables)

– Renewable Heat Incentive

– Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

• Adapt by expanding surveys

• Working with regulators to design administrative systems to meet statistics needs

• Short term indicative indicators e.g. wind generation (collected monthly)

• Complexities in understanding change (e.g. diesel - renewables or recession)

Renewable electricity generation


Renewable Heat and liquid biofuels for transport


How close are we to the 2020 renewable targets?

The heat and transport sectors exclude electricity used in these sectors which is included in the electricity sector. Under the provisions of the Renewable Energy Directive, the share of renewables in the transport sector is calculated in relation to total surface transport (road and rail) only, i.e. excluding aviation and shipping, but all forms of transport can count towards the target. Using this definition, the 49 TWh renewable energy from transport represents 10%.

1.6%

98.4%

Heat

2009

12.0%

88.0%

2020

2.5%

97.5%

Transport

2009

8.1%

91.9%

2020

6.6%

93.4%

Electricity

2009

30.3%

69.7%

2020


• The relationship between energy prices and fuel poverty (required energy spend for adequate heating/income)

• Rising Energy Prices most influential factor behind increases in fuel poverty

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UK England "Real" fuel prices

INFORMING POLICIES BY UNDERSTANDING THEIR IMPACT

• Supply side and energy costs make up largest proportion of bills.

• Significant investment in UK energy infrastructure adds to distribution costs, making up 15% of bills.

• Emission reduction policy costs represent a relatively large proportion of electricity bills (8%) and 3% of gas bills and will grow.

Reflecting 2009 PricesSource: Ofgem


Potential increase in energy bills in 2020

• Chart shows possible increase in bills as percentage of disposable income by income decline, as result of measures to reduce emissions


For more information and data on Energy and Climate Change Statistics in the UK see:

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/statistics.aspx

Thank you!

CONSUMPTION OF BIODIESEL AND BIO ETHANOL IN THE UK

Unit: Million Litres

2003 19 20,906 0.1% 0 27,393 0.0% 0.0%2004 21 22,181 0.1% 0 27,025 0.0% 0.0%2005 33 23,233 0.1% 85 25,608 0.3% 0.2%2006 169 24,286 0.7% 95 24,672 0.4% 0.5%2007 347 25,476 1.4% 152 24,045 0.6% 1.0%2008 886 25,686 3.5% 206 22,709 0.9% 2.3%2009 1,044 25,084 4.2% 317 22,027 1.4% 2.9%

Source: HM Revenue and Customs

Biofuels as % of road

fuels

Bioethanol as % Motor Spirit share

Year Biodiesel DERV Biodiesel as %

Diesel share

Bioethanol Motor Spirit

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STATISTICS

Installed Capacity (MWe) 2008 2009

percentage change

Generation (GWh) 2008 2009

percentage change

Wind: Wind:

Onshore 2,820.2 3,483.2 23.5% Onshore 5,792 7,564 30.6%

Offshore 586 941.2 60.6% Offshore 1,305 1,740 33.3%

Shoreline wave / tidal 0.5 2.5 390% Solar photovoltaics 17 20 17.6%

Solar photovoltaics 22.5 26.5 17.8% Hydro:

Hydro: Small scale 568 598 5.3%

Small scale 173.3 186.3 7.5% Large scale 4,600 4,664 1.4%

Large scale 1,456.50 1,458.50 0.1% Biomass:

Biomass: Landfill gas 4,757 4,952 4.1%

Landfill gas 908.3 984.9 8.4% Sewage sludge digestion 547 638 16.8%

Sewage sludge digestion 148.5 157.7 6.2% MSW combustion 1,226 1,511 23.2%

MSW combustion 375.9 392 4.3% Co-firing with fossil fuels 1,613 1,806 12.0%

Animal Biomass 114.4 119.3 4.3% Animal Biomass 587 620 5.6%

Plant Biomass 197.7 278.5 40.9% Plant Biomass 568 1109 95.3%

Total biomass and wastes 1,744.7 1,932.4 10.8% Total biomass and wastes 9,298 10,636 14.4%

Total capacity 6,803.7 8,030.6 18.0% Total generation 21,580 25,222 16.9%

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY INDICATORS

All renewables

(TWh)

Total UK Generation

(TWh) %

RO renewables

(TWh)

UK electricity

sales (TWh) %

2007 19.7 396.8 5.0% 15.8 331.2 4.8%

2008 21.6 388.7 5.6% 17.7 331.9 5.3%

2009 25.2 375.7 6.7% 21.1 313.8 6.7%

PROGRESS AGAINST THE RENEWABLE ENERGY

DIRECTIVE

Non-transport energy consumption by end use: 1990 and 2008

OVERALL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONNon-transport, by end use

38%

12%9%

22%

19%

40%

13%12%

14%

21%

Space heating

Water heating

Lighting/ Appliances

Process use

Other

Inner ring: 199097.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent

Outer ring: 200894.0 million tonnes of oil equivalent

Energy savings due to insulation and heating efficiency improvements

in GB: 1970 to 2007

DOMESTIC ENERGY CONSUMPTIONEnergy savings

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Actual energy consumptionInsulation energy savingHeating systems efficiency energy saving

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linking energy and environmental changes through statistics

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