Linwood PendletonSenior Fellow

The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor

UCLA

Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn

UCLA© Laura Brophy

Determining the Impact of Coastal Restoration on Human Use: Zuma Lagoon

22

Restoration of Zuma Lagoon

Zuma Lagoon Before (1987) and After Restoration (2002)

Source: Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission

© californiacoastline.org © californiacoastline.org

Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration

© Perla Atiyah

Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration

© Perla Atiyah

Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration

© Perla Atiyah

Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration

© Perla Atiyah

Can’t Just Look At Policy Site

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Att

enda

nce

(x10

00)

Year

Zuma BeachZuma Beach

Restoration

Does Coastal Restoration Affect Visitation: Zuma Lagoon

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Att

enda

nce

(x10

00)

Zuma Beach All Beaches (excluding Zuma)

PANEL DATA

1)BEFORE2)AFTER3)WITH4)WITHOUT

NEED ENOUGH DATA FORSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS!

26 Beaches, 10 Years of Data

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Nicholas Cyn

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Zuma Beach

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Santa Monica (S)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Manhattan Beach

11

Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before and After Diversion

Other Factors: Storm Drain Diversions

12

Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before & After Diversion

Before After

13

Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before Diversion

14

Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: After Diversion

Model Affect on Beach Visitation

attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather

Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23

Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25

Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94

Policy Interventions1) Restoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 2) Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00

w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups

Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X

Control for Other Factors

attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather

Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23

Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25

Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94

Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00

w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups

Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X

Control for Other Factors

attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather

Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23

Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25

Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94

Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00

w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups

Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X

Control for Other Factors

attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather

Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23

Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25

Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94

Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00

w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups

Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X

The Impact is Statistically > > 0

attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather

Rainy Days at Beach -20,344 79%

Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -12,701 90% Warm Days Inland 7,240 88% Warm Water Days (>65F) 3,584 71%

Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -62,361 70% Wet + Dry HTB Grade 31,481 89%

Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure -31,834 23%Local Population Growth 251,478 18%

Policy Interventions

Restoration at Zuma 1,200,744

99%Storm Drain Diversion 610,324 99+%

w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups

Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X

Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation

Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million

Storm Drain Diversion 600,000

Some Economic ContextAverage spending/visit ~ $27, • $32 million/yr in additional spending at restoration (cost = $158,000 plus in kind contributions and volunteers)

• $16 million/yr in additional spending at storm drain diversion sites (cost <$620,000)

Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation

Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million

Storm Drain Diversion 600,000

Some economic contextNon-market value/visit ~ $16, • $19 million/yr in additional non-market value at restoration site (cost <$158,000 +)

• $9.6 million/yr in additional non-market value at storm drain diversion site (cost <$620,000 plus maintenance)

Conclusion• Need to demonstrate (empirically) affect of restoration on people.

•Need long term data, at many sites, to understand local impacts of restoration.

•Need to collect a set of consistent human use and environmental/ecological data in estuary and coastal areas

•Restoration•MPAs•Pollution/mitigation•Development, etc.