lisa pace environmental foresight1 foresight a tool for environmental assessment & management...

lisa pace environmental foresight 1

Foresight

A Tool for Environmental Assessment & Management

Lisa PaceMalta Council for Science & Technology

[email protected]


Outline:• Dimensions of environment.• Uncertainty in complex Environmental

Systems• Rationale for carrying out foresight-type

exercises in environment-related issues.• Techniques/tools used in environmental

foresight.• Participatory processes and dialogue• Consensus conferences • Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools.• Look-out panels Biomarkers


The Environment – A Complex System

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Addressing Complex Environmental

Problems as Systems Priority areas of action in the EC’s Sixth Environment Action

Programme “Environment 2010: Our future, our choice”:

Climate Change (Green House Gas – GHG- Emissions)

Nature and protection of biodiversity

Environment and Health

Sustainable use of natural resources

Chemicals and Air Pollution

Waste Prevention and Recycling


air

Land

water

S O C I A L

D I

M E N S I O N

E C O N O M I C D I M E N

S I O N

Climate Change

Fisheries

Gene Technologies GMO

pollution

B I O D I V E R S I T Y

research

WASTE

Transport


Environmental represent Complex Systems with high degree of Uncertainty:

• Incomplete information or knowledge exists on how these systems work.

• Little is known on how they impact the environment and society.

• The impact is difficult to quantify.

• Models may propose different outcomes.


These systems raise uncertainties of many sorts.

• What is the impact of GMOs on natural biodiversity and human health? What is the cost of a “No GMO” Policy?

• How will climate change impact biodiversity?

• What is the impact of fisheries on marine ecosystems?


In this climate of uncertainty:

• Decisions must be made TODAY, before conclusive evidence is available…….

• The stakes revolving around these issues are normally high, with strong economic and social interests which often conflict with environmental aspects.

• What if these decisions are wrong? What impact will they have on society at large?

• How can uncertainties be taken into account in environmental policy-making?


Environmental Assessment: measuring, managing, reducing uncertainty:

• Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply managed effectively and in a transparent manner.

• Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty associated with a policy issue. Environmental Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty must be presented to policy-maker.

• Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge generated in policy process. How robust and reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?


Creating socially-robust Knowledge to manage (reduce) uncertainty:

• Public participation – stakeholder engagement - in policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and transparency (this is more about the process other than the product!)

• Quality control such as extended peer review.• Interdisciplinarity• Accountability and Transparency of policy-

making process.• Holistic approach to environmental management –

Ecosystems Management Approach


The policy cycle:

Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle at three levels:

• It provides tools for stakeholder engagement. Involvement in the policy process

• It provides for visions of future policy options through scenario analysis.

• It can be used as an early warning signal of environmental problems


Rationale for carrying out Environmental Foresight (1):

Prospective analysis can be used “…to identify emerging problems and solutions early. Provide an “Early-Warning System” to environmental issues/problems.

This is more effective than the conventional approach of waiting to act until adverse effects on the environment and human health are high and in some cases irreversible”. (Alternative Futures, June 2003).

Foresight can help questions such as: what are the envisaged future environmental problems? What steps should be taken to solve them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and even perhaps prevent such problems from arising in the first place?

• Foresight is useful in environmental assessment, a tool which provides basic information on the current state of the environment but also addresses the future state of the environment (EEA, 2000).


Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising and communicating complex and extensive scientific information to decision makers and the public, thus bridging the gap between scientists and the community.

• A participatory approach in a foresight exercise promotes Dialogue i.e. “interaction and mutual exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders (including scientists) with the aim of promoting co-operation; it is a process of multi-lateral communication across disciplines and institutions

Rationale for carrying out Environmental Foresight (1):


A toolbox of foresight methods can be

applied to environmental management

• 1. Scenario Analysis with both qualitative and quantitative elements (SAS, story-line and simulation). Back-casting techniques

• 2. Consensus conferences• 3. Expert Panels• 4. Delphi surveys• 5. “Look-out” Panels• 6. modelling

• Not all these methods are “future-oriented” but complement techniques typically used in foresight exercises. Scenario analysis is the major foresight tool used in environmental management strategies.


Participatory approach in Environmental Policy-making: Building a Science –Society Dialogue

• A participatory approach in a foresight exercise promotes Dialogue i.e. “interaction and mutual exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders (including scientists) with the aim of promoting co-operation; it is a process of multi-lateral communication across disciplines and institutions


Broad Comparison:

Participatory Approach Non-Participatory Approach

Involving wide range of stakeholders in the foresight process i.e. in the methods used to implement foresight.

Involving mainly expert knowledge in the foresight process, via report writing; expert advice (for example an expert is asked for his/her “opinion” or advice on an environmental issue); one-to-one consultation.

Process-oriented More product-oriented with a focus on recommendations which emerge from foresight exercise.

Because of the above, it has been found that there is increased ownership of the foresight process. The stakeholders feel more strongly about the recommendations or action lines

Not necessarily the case.


Consensus Conferences –– Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between experts and

non-experts.– Involves the non-expert or lay public in policy-making process

where the non-expert could include decision-makers in company (top-management), directors in government departments, ministers, lay public, board of directors etc.

– Described as a “Citizen’s Jury”. A citizens or lay panel a list of key questions to address to an expert panel during the three-day conference.

– Used to discuss “hot”, emerging issues in S&T.


Consensus Conferences:• Examples:• Widely used in Denmark in relation to

public perception of GM Foods and gene therapy.

• UK National Consensus Conference on Plant Biotechnology, 1996

• UK National Consensus Conference on Waste, 1996

• Fast Food and technoburgers, Norwegian Consensus Conference, 1996

• Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea 1998

• Korean Second Consensus Conference on Cloning, 1999

• Australian Biotech Consensus Conference, 1999 (GM Foods and Feed Issues)


Scenario Building:

Classification of Scenarios:

Qualitative (story-line)

Descriptive, narrative text

versus

Quantitative

Numerical, graphical information Based on computer modelling

Exploratory (descriptive)

Begin in the present and explore trends in the future

versus

Anticipatory (normative). Start with a prescribed vision of the future

and work backwards to “visualize” the future – back-casting technique.

Which type of scenarios to choose? Usually a “cocktail” of different types!


Example 1: COOL Climate OptiOns for the Long-term, The Netherlands

Combined Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory (normative) scenarios

Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of:

“Developing recommendations for drastic (80%) Green House Gas (GHG) emission reductions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels”.

Time-horizon: 2050

Baseline year: 1990

• Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4 sectors: (1) Industry & Energy (2) Housing & Construction (3) Transport & Traffic and (4) Agriculture & Nutrition.

• Back-casting Technique: retrospective in that starts from a pre-determined desirable final state and explores conditions and strategies to achieve this state. It can be divided into a number of steps.


Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios for Energy Sector


Governance of Water Resources – the GOUVERNE Project

FP5 Research Project implemented by a consortium of partners, including the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

Aims:• Application of suitable tools, namely scenario

analysis to the policy debate on “The future of ground water resources in a valley in the South West of France”.


GOUVERNE Project

• Involvement of all relevant social actors or stakeholders in the debate.

• Develop an ICT tool to support decision-making and policy-making processes/


GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief:

• Interviews to identify major stakeholders in study area and understand nature of issue and conflicting interests in the French valley.

• Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1) Drivers which are likely to affect the future water system (hydrological system) of the valley.

• Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of change: scenarios are narratives describing how stakeholders see the valley change in 2015

• Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most likely or preferred scenario?


GOUVERNe Project

The outcome of the project:

• Scenarios for the future hydrological system of the valley

• Stakeholder awareness and involvement in resource governance.

• An ICT tool for better resource management.


“Look-out Panels” – identifying biomarkers of environmental health.

• Specialised look-out panels set up within public and/or private sector to identify biomarkers of environmental health. Panels may form part of the permanent set-up of organisation or appointed ad-hoc.

• Properties of biomarkers:• Early-warning signals of stress/disease and environmental

degradation. Described as “surrogate end-points” as they can identify early symptoms before disease actually manifests itself e.g. heart disease.

• Huge savings on health care systems.• Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g. by

community reference laboratories).


Examples of Biomarkers:• Medicine and Health:

– Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate end points of heart disease.

– Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as surrogate end point of AIDS.

– Genetic fingerprinting

• Environment:• Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure to organic

pollutants (PCBs)• Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as a result of

heavy metal contamination• Reproductive sterility• Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea urchin.• Eutrophication – an indicator of nutrient enrichment

lisa pace environmental foresight1 foresight a tool for environmental assessment & management...

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