May 1, 2023 1

Projection of Vitis vinifera production and climate change in the Columbia Basin Valley in the 21st centuryTIFFANY LIUClimate Physics Educational DevelopmentRichland, WA

May 1, 2023 2

This summer

Young Women in ScienceUnder Yun Qian and Hailong Wang in the Climate Physics Educational Development group

Climate change and its effects show detrimental effects to wine grape production, the economy, job stability, and familiesWashington state wine production has a national $14.9 billion economic impact [1]

Accounts for nearly 30,000 full-time jobs

20% of all grapes produced in 2013 were Cabernet Sauvignon.

http://img1.sunset.timeinc.net/sites/default/files/image/2007/09/sunplants-grapes-l.jpg

[1] Stonebridge Research Group, 2012, The Economic Impact of Washington State Wine and Grapes, Stonebridge Research Group, St. Helena, California, 8 p.

May 1, 2023 3

An outline

2 major factors focused on for growing Vitis vinifera (wine grapes)

Temperature and precipitation

Visual data showing the representative concentration pathways

RCP 4.5 (Carbon Price) is the scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized right after 2100 [2]

RCP 8.5 (Business as Usual) is when greenhouse gas emissions steadily increases without change [2]

Importance locally, nationally, and globallyTri-Cities, United States, global economy

Washington produced 40,500 tons of chardonnay grapes in 2013.

http://www.winelegacy.com/Images/ItemDescription/20090422/forestville-chardonnay.jpg

[2] Wayne, G. P., 2013, The Beginner’s Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14 p.

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Radiative forcing [3]CO 2 concentration [2]

Additional factors in wine grape growth

[2]Wayne, G. P., 2013, The Beginner’s Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14 p.

[3] Meinshausen, M. et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, 2010, Climatic Change, 18 p.

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Areas of focus

http://www.wawgg.org/files/documents/Washington_State_AVA_Map.pdf?PHPSESSID=db232de3e63ef954a1f12b38875b407c

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Methodology and data

Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), we obtained temp. and precip. data from 9 grid cellsThrough literature, we found the total volume of wine grape production in WA in 2010 as a baseline and then projected data until 2100

1 2 3 45 6 7

8 9

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Statistical yield model (Lobdell et al., 2006)

Y represents yield anomaly (ton acre-1). Subscript numbers indicate month of climate variable, with negative values denoting a month from the year prior to harvest. Tn, minimum temperature (°C); P, precipitation (mm)Average aggregated average data computed from 382 individual meteorological stations throughout the state of California from 1980-2003 [4]

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Precipitation projections

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5June Monthly-mean Daily Precipitation

RCP 4.5RCP 8.5

Year

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3Previous September Monthly-mean Daily Precipitation

RCP 4.5RCP 8.5

Year

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 April Mean Daily Minimum Temperature

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Year

Tem

pera

ture

(°C)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

20522055

20582061

20642067

20702073

20762079

20822085

20882091

20942097

2100-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10 Statistical Yield Anomaly

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Year

Perc

ent a

nom

aly

(%)

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Carbon Price vs. Business as Usual

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

20522055

20582061

20642067

20702073

20762079

20822085

20882091

20942097

210060000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000 Total Washington Yield

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Year

Volu

me

(ton

s)

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Carbon Price vs. Business as Usual

Due to the colder and drier climate of Eastern Washington, the model does not show that human activity will affect the yield of WA wine grapes. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 show little difference. However, the statistical yield model that was designed specifically for California does show the conclusion that if human activity proceeds as usual, the production of grape production will substantially decrease, compared to if we begin implementing ways to decrease anthropogenic climate change.

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

20522055

20582061

20642067

20702073

20762079

20822085

20882091

20942097

2100-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 California Statistical Anomaly

RCP 4.5RCP 8.5

Year

Perc

ent a

nom

aly

(%)

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Recommendations

LocallyMinimize uncertaintiesIrrigation adaptationsProvide training and guidance to workers for a more sustainable and green environment

NationallyImplement specific adaptation regulations to each region Derive a more encompassing model with all major factors in order to provide more accurate projections for specific regions

GloballyEducate everyone about the state of our earth and how we are responsible

Merlot is usually harvested late in order to gain physiological ripeness and fuller flavor.

http://www.frenchscout.com/grapes/merlot-on-black.jpg

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks to:Young Women in Science Program

Ying LiuCarolyn CramerLavon ConlinEmily Davis

Hailong WangYun Qian

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References

1. Stonebridge Research Group, 2012, The Economic Impact of Washington State Wine and Grapes, Stonebridge Research Group, St. Helena, California, 8 p.

2. Wayne, G. P., 2013, The Beginner’s Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14 p, 16 p.

3. Meinshausen, M. et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, 2010, Climatic Change, 18 p.

4. Lobdell, D. et al., 2006, Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties, Science Direct, Stanford, California, 210 p.