livestock production in a changing climate - beverley henry

isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

Beverley Henry, Ed Charmley, Richard Eckard,

John Gaughan, Roger Hegarty

Animal Theme

Livestock Production in a Changing Climate


Outline

• Animal agriculture, resources and societies

• Livestock in a changing climate– Adaptation– Mitigation

• Livestock production – meeting future needs


Global agricultural land resources

>50% of the habitable area is at least 30% cultivated

Ruminant livestock production is the only practical food production on large areas of dryland systems – occupies 1/3 of global land surface.


Land use for animal agriculture in Australia

Conservation and protected

21%

Minimal use16%

Grazing natural vegetation

46%

Improved pastures10%

Production forestry

1%

Dryland cropping,

horticulture3%

Other land use1%

Water2%

Land use in Australia 2005-06Total area 7,687,147 sq km

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Major agricultural land use in Australia

Non-crop Non-farm Wheat Other crops


Livestock numbers in Australia

Milk cattle Meat cattle Sheep and lambs

Pigs Chickens for meat

Chickens for eggs

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Climate change impacts in Australia

Summary: The climate will be hotter and wetter or hotter and drier with higher CO2 and will most likely be more variable

• Temperature rise of 0.6 -1.5 ºC by 2030; 1 - 5 ºC by 2070.

• Annual rainfall change of -10 to +5% in north and -10% to 0 in south by 2030; -30 to +20% in north, central, east and -30 to +5% in south under 2070 high emission scenarios (A1FI) projected changes.

• Changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events including an increase in the number of hot days;

• Intensified water security problems with the frequency and extent of droughts projected to increase over most of southern Australia.

Source: CSIRO and Bom 2010


Impacts of changing climate on livestock production systems

Changing climatic conditions will have four primary effects on animal agriculture:

1. feed-grain, production, availability and price;

2. pastures and forage crop production and quality;

3. animal health, growth and reproduction; and

4. disease and pest distribution.

Rötter and Van de Geijn (1999)


Outline


• Livestock in a changing climate–Adaptation– Mitigation



Impacts on pork & poultry industries

More variable climate effects:

Feed shortages

Reduced water availability

Higher input costs – energy, grain, fertilisers, bedding.

Higher temperature effects:

Heat stress

Summer infertility


Pasture response to CO2

Cullen et al. 2009

Mean annual DM production response (%) to elevated CO2 (550 ppm vs 380 ppm baseline) for the baseline climate scenarios (1971-2000) at each site. The annual range of DM responses is in parenthesis.

Site Pasture species DM response (%)

Mutdapilly, Qld Rhodes grass 8.6 (-0.3-15.5

Barraba, NSW Native perennial grasses (C3 & C4) 17.1 (1.5-33.8)

Wagga Wagga, NSW Phalaris, subterranean clover, native C4 grasses 29.0 (22.5-37.5)

Ellinbank, Vic. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 23.8 (20.7-28.7)

Elliott, Tas. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 25.8 (21.9-30.0)


Heat Stress impacts on production


Adaptive management for heat stress and extreme events

FloodingHeat stress: Un-shaded cattle seek shade from feeder; Late afternoon panting score = 3.5


Outline


• Livestock in a changing climate–Adaptation– Mitigation



Savanna burning

16%

Agriculture soils17%

Residue burning0.3%

Manure management

4%

Rice cultivation0.0%

Livestock digestion

64%

Australia’s agriculture emissions

Agriculture ~ 15% emissions– 58% total methane– 76% total nitrous oxide

Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010


Australia’s climate change mitigation policy

• Carbon price– Proposal for fixed price (?$20/ t CO2 –e) from 1 July 2012 moving to

ETS in 2015-16; compensation for EITE

• Renewable energy– Renewable Energy Target of 20 per cent by 2020

• Carbon Farming Initiative– Land sector abatement– Kyoto and non-Kyoto offset credits– Expected start late 2011


Monogastric livestock

• Manure management– Renewable energy generation technologies


Beef cattleSheep

Dairy

Source: ABS & DA

Ruminant production in Australia

Beef


6-12% energy loss

Kurihara et al. 1999

Distribution of ingested energy in cattle

Producing 50–90kg methane/year is equivalent to 33–60 effective grazing days lost a year

The dilemma: Excess H means lower performance; Methane takes H out of the rumen

The challenge: Reducing methane emissions while increasing production

Ruminant methane emissions


Mitigation technologies

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“Silver bullet”

Rumen manipulation

Genetic selection

Dietary additives

Best management practices

Ed Charmley 2009


Methane Mitigation Options

Short term– Feed quality (5 – 15%)

• Pasture improvement• C3 pastures, legumes

– Reducing unproductive animal nos. (10 – 15%)• Extended lactation• Earlier finishing of beef• Reproduction, fertility & health

– Dietary supplements• Grain (5 - 20%)• Tannins (13 - 29%)• Oils (5 - 25%)

– 1% fat = 3.6% decrease CH4 /kg DMI

Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Moate, Williams, Eckard et al. 2010


Methane Mitigation Options

Medium Term– Animal Breeding (10 – 20%)

• Feed conversion efficiency• Reduced methanogenesis

– Plant Breeding (10-30%)• ME: CP ratio• Tannin, oils, fibre

Longer-term (>40%)– Rumen manipulation/ biological control

• Vaccination • Competitive or predatory microbes • Acetogenesis


C fluxes in beef systems

Ed Charmley CSIRO


Savanna burning

16%

Agriculture soils17%

Residue burning0.3%

Manure management

4%

Rice cultivation0.0%

Livestock digestion

64%

Australia’s agriculture emissions

Agriculture ~ 15% emissions– 58% total methane– 76% total nitrous oxide

Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010


Nitrous Oxide

• Denitrification– Warm, water-logged soils– Excess NO3 in soil

• Nitrification– Warm, aerobic soils– Minor losses

• Inefficient use of nitrogen– Ruminants excrete 75 to 95% of N intake

• >60% lost

N fertiliser

Legumes

Excreta

Mineralisation

NH4 NO3 N2

N2O

Denitrification


Increase of 24.3% in beef production 1990 to 2008

Increase of 16.2% in farm methane emissions 1990 to 2008

Decrease of 6.5% in methane per unit product 1990 to 2008

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Australian beef emissions intensity trend


Increasing yield – producing more from less


Research priorities

Capacity • Trained experts able to advise the farming community in:

– All aspects of climate science, adaptation, mitigation and sequestration management

– Climate change policies

Adaptation• Understanding direct and indirect effects of climate change

on animal production systems:– Direct effects on the biology of animals– Indirect effects on disease/parasite exposure– Indirect effects on feed quality via plant and soil systems– Water and energy use efficiencies for intensive livestock production


Research priorities (2)

Mitigation• More efficient production of renewable energy from waste in

intensive systems• Practical on-farm options to reduce emissions without

negative impacts on productivity:– Improved accounting and quantification including emissions and

sequestration – Cost abatement curves for a range of mitigation strategies and

offsets– Whole farm modelling and LCA– Relationship between breeding for feed conversion efficiency and

methane and heritability of low methanogenesis– Sustained investment in rumen microbial manipulations– Reducing urinary N loss and managing indirect N2O loss


Conclusions

• Livestock production will make an ongoing contribution to Australian and global food and fibre supply

• Climate change will have significant impacts on animal agriculture through both the feedbase and animal response, particularly heat stress

• Options do exist to reduce emissions from livestock systems and emissions intensity appears the logical measure of GHG mitigation for animal agriculture

• Extensive ruminant production systems provide the only option for food production in large areas of rangelands, requiring efficient and sustainable resource management in a changing climate


THANK YOUCo-authors Ed Charmley

Richard Eckard

John Gaughan

Roger Hegarty

Acknowledgements– Karen & Ian Litchfield and Dr Steve Little for the Cool Cows

Program Case Study– Dr Janine Price and colleagues of APL– Dr Brian Keating, CSIRO SAF for expert review– Australian Government Climate Change Research Program and

industry partners for funding for much of the research reported

livestock production in a changing climate - beverley henry

Technology

sustainable resources

sustainable resourcescricos

societies livestock

production response

animal agriculture

impacts of changing

livestock numbers

climate change impacts