lng a crucial component of european gas industry
TRANSCRIPT
LNG – a crucial component of European gas
industry
Michal Kocůrek
CEEC, Bratislava
19. listopadu 2019
Flexibility and supply security
2
LNG terminals in the EU
3
LNG Świnoujście
Panigaglia
Toscana
Porto Levante
Fos CavaouFos Tonkin
Sagunto
Cartagena
Barcelona
Bilbao
Montoir de Bretagne
Isle of Grain
Gate
Dunkerque
Zeebrugge
South Hook LNGDragon LNG
LNG Gdańsk
LNG Klaipeda
LNG
Croatia
LNG Brunsbuttel
LNG Wilhelmshaven
LNG Stade
Huelva
Sines
Mugardos
Revithoussa
Alexandroupolis
capacity EU
2019
212 bcm
projects by
2025
ca 34 bcm
2,6
6,1
5-8
10
5-8
4,5
Croatia
Alexandroupolis
Brunsbuttel
Wilhelmshaven
Stade
Gdańsk
capacity EU
2025
ca 250 bcm
2040 imports: approx. 345 bcm
total supply from sources with limited production or transport capacity - Norway, Algeria, Azerbaijan, East
Mediterranean – approx. 125 bcm
supply form flexible sources- Russia and LNG: approx. 220 bcm
LNG is the only source posessing the real power to reduce growing import dependency on one
supplier with dominant position
share of Russian gas and LNG on the European market is uncertain – key factors are:
– gas demand in the EU
– LNG price on the global market
– Gazprom sale strategy (market share vs. price)
Key import sources for the EU in 2040
4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
leden únor březen duben květen červen červenec srpen září říjen
EU
R/M
Wh
ESP NCG BAFA
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
leden únor březen duben květen červen červenec srpen září říjen
EU
R/M
Wh
ESP NCG BAFA
ESP and German market price correlation in 2019
5
source: S&P Platts, Gazprom Exxport, BAFA
avg. price
ESP 15,42
NCG 14,02
BAFA 16,94
EUR/MWh
EU 2018
53,2 mld.
m3
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
EU
R/M
Wh
ESP NCG BAFA
EU 2018
53,2 mld. m3
LNG price
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
mil.
m3
EU
R/M
Wh
FR LNG NL LNG TTF TRF VTP AT
Natural gas price on the European markets in 2019
7
source: S&P Platts, ENTSO-G
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
mil.
m3
EU
R/M
Wh
FR LNG NL LNG TTF TRF VTP ATEU 2018
53,2 mld. m3
Apr-Jul
2,5 EUR/MWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
mcm
/d
EU
R/M
Wh
FR LNG NL LNG TTF TRF VTP AT
2019 commodity liquefaction transport regasification total
Qatar - EU 5,12 7,31 3,36 1,46 17,25
USA - EU 7,92 5,85 2,31 1,46 17,54
VTP CZ 15,02 15,02
BAFA 16,94 16,94
Gazprom Export 17,27 17,27
Cost of gas imports to the EU (EUR/MWh)
8
source: OIES, S&P Platts, Gazprom Export, BAFA, EIA
LNG supplies in the EU are competitive with all the external import sources
2019 commodity liquefaction transport regasification total
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 2019
mil.
m3/d
en
LNG supplies to the EU from 2014 to 2019
9
zdroj: ENTSO-G
EU 2019
80,8 bcm
EU 2018
53,2 bcm
key role of UGS for LNG supply growth, synergy instead competition
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
mcm
/d
EU
R/M
Wh
FR LNG NL LNG TTF TRF VTP AT
Story
10
Lithuanian FSRU terminal in Klaipeda
11
start-up:
2014
capacity:
4,4 bcm
total supply:
5,2 bcm
2018 supply:
0,8 bcm
2019 supply:
1,4 bcm
Poland – future main importer of LNG in the EU
12
volume expiration start-up
bcma years year
Qatargas Qatar up to 2,9 20 2016 DES yes
Centrica LNG Company UK 0,3 5 2018 DES yes
Cheniere USA 0,7 4 2019 DES yes
Port Artur LNG USA 2,7 20 2023 FOB no
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass USA 1,36 20 2023 FOB no
Cheniere USA 1,95 20 2023 DES yes
Venture Global Plaquemines LNG USA 1,36 20 2024 FOB no
Venture Global Plaquemines LNG USA 2 20 2024 FOB no
total in 2024 12,07
country of
origin
existing
sourcesupplier supply model
PGNiG – LNG supply contracts
13
source: PGNiG, S&P Platts,
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
bcm
Qatargas Centrica Cheniere spot Venture Global
Port Arthur Baltic Pipe moderate optimal
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
bcm
Qatargas Centrica Cheniere spot Venture Global
Port Arthur Baltic Pipe moderate optimal
source: PGNiG, Gaz-System,
LNG contracts vs. domestic demand outlook
14
LNG will enable Polish gas exports to neighbouring countries
LNG offers flexible and diversified gas supplies
gas price hits historic floor due to LNG supplies
gas advocacy: LNG makes the EU less dependent on coal and Russia
Impact of LNG supplies on the European gas industry
15