Loans & Lending: A multi-market

analysis

DE, ES, FR, IT, NL, UK

Hypothesis

The combination of falling consumer confidence & recent rate changes

is likely to have had an impact on how consumers think about

financing, including their approach to loans.

How has this changed for people & businesses in 2020?

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Seasonality range (Indexed to monthly avg)

Lending searches have picked up since Q3 2019

Lending seasonality didn’t pick up until late Q3 2019

In Jan-Feb 2020 all markets were over indexing for loans searches

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

Lending terms tend to be searched by Men

35-49 also the most popular age group for all markets but Germany

Microsoft Internal, Mar 2020

6%

10%

6%

8%

4%

8%

6%

21%

15%

12%

23%

21%

19%

13%

41%

26%

30%

46%

46%

29%

32%

24%

34%

28%

18%

22%

27%

27%

8%

16%

25%

5%

7%

16%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UK

DE

FR

ES

IT

NL

EU Total

Demographic Split by market

18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU

Total

UK DE FR ES IT NL

Gender split by market

Female Male

Understanding the demographic movements YoYInterestingly 65+ are more likely to search in this category than most

other age groups

Microsoft Internal, Mar-20 vs Base month: Mar-19

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Female Male

Composition Index by Gender

(Mar-19 vs Mar-20)

Europe UK DE FR ES IT NL

60%

100%

140%

180%

18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Composition Index by age

(Mar-19 vs Mar-20)

Europe UK DE FR ES IT NL

At least 7/10 searches occur on the PC

UK & Spain have the largest share of searches on the mobile device

Microsoft Internal, 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

DE ES FR IT NL UK Europe

Device share

PC Tablet Mobile

UK

Lending seasonality uptick in 2020

Lending searches have accelerated into March, peaking at 186%

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

60%

100%

140%

180%

220%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Loans & Lending seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)

Europe UK

UK mortgage search seasonality is more prominent now

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Mortgage seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)

UK Europe

Base rate changes in March coincide with heightened searches

A larger proportion of Loans searches occur on mobile

PC still dominates across this sector, although to a lesser extent than

Europe

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

UK Europe

Loans device share

PC Tablet Mobile

UK Europe

Morgages device share

PC Tablet Mobile

FR

Queries examples

Below are some examples of the queries used in the analysis

Microsoft Internal

LOANS - Personal LOANS - Auto LOANS - Business LOANS - Student LOANS - Others MORTGAGES

crédit personnel credit automobile financement creation entreprise simulation credit etudiant rachat de credit simulation prêt immobilier

rachat de credit conso rachat credit auto financement des entreprises pret etudiant rachat crédit prêt immobilier

prêt personnel credit auto credit entreprise en ligne taux pret etudiant credit taux immobilier

credit personnel rapide pret auto financement entreprise prêt étudiant regroupement de credit simulateur prêt immobilier

credit en ligne crédit auto simulation pret creation entreprise prêt étudiant a taux zero simulation rachat de credit credit immobilier

… … … … … …

Loans & Lending FR seasonality VS Europe

Loans & Lending searches have slowed down into March, to index

105, meaning 17 points below European index.

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

FR mortgage does not follow last year search seasonality

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

The march 2019 bounce did not occurred in 2020

Related to economical recession, business loans grow

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

On the other hand, auto and student loans decline

DE

Lending searches in March 2020 higher than last year

Covid-19 creates interest in loans above European average.

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

60%

100%

140%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Loans & Lending seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)

Europe DE

DE mortgage searches are below European trend

Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Mortgage seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)

DE Europe

Low consumer confidence and pandemic outbreak slow demand

PC remains the dominant factor for loans and mortgage

searchesMobile searches for loans are above European average though

Microsoft Internal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

DE Europe

Loans device share

PC Tablet Mobile

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

DE Europe

Mortgages device share

PC Tablet Mobile

NL

Covid-19 might have driven Loans & Lending interest

Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Jan-19 to Mar-20

60%

100%

140%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Loans & Mortgages seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)

Europe NL

+9% +22% +26%

Consequences of lockdowns drive category growth

33%

-5%

17%

45%

5%

26%

3%

18%

11%

-14%

10%

2%

12%

9%

-5%

2020 year-on-year search volume growth

by month and subcategory

Mar Feb Jan

Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Jan-19 to Mar-20

Growing consumer interest in

mortgages as banks are increasing

interest rates because economic

conditions deteriorated due to

lockdowns

Lockdown has disrupted business;

companies are looking for extra

credit to keep their businesses afloat

Home-owners are looking for better mortgage-deals

Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Mar-20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Share of search volume by age group

Mortgages Loans (all categories)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Female Male

Share of search volume by gender

Mortgages Loans (all categories)

• Distribution of search volume across age groups differs for both categories

• Interest in mortgages seems to be dominated by 35-49 yr olds with

adjacent age groups following close; high share of 35 – 64 age group might

identify a consumer need to change mortgages due to the risk of rising

interest rates (as the expectation is that they already own a house)

• Especially 50-64 age group drives volume in Loans with 35-49 following

close

• Both Loans categories shown have exactly same

distribution of search volume by gender

• Across both Loans categories predominantly males

drive the search volume, accounting for 62%

Query overview showing underlying intent

Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Feb-20 and Mar-20

Query Indexed Volume Growth Mar vs. Feb

geld lenen 100 51%

persoonlijke lening 33 23%

lening aanvragen 30 76%

lening 26 217%

krediet 25 529%

geld lenen zonder bkr toetsing 23 41%

woz krediet 19 343%

lenen 19 148%

geld lenen direct op rekening 19 -7%

doorlopend krediet 16 71%

hoeveel kan ik lenen 13 68%

zakelijke lening 9 43%

lening berekenen 9 29%

duurzaamheidslening 9 Infinite

wat kan ik lenen 9 139%

lening aanvragen zonder bkr toetsing 9 40%

geld lenen zonder bkr 7 36%

lening oversluiten 7 46%

persoonlijke lening vergelijken 6 13%

snel geld lenen 6 23%

minilening 6 -8%

microkrediet 5 254%

energiebespaarlening 5 163%

autolening 4 61%

rente persoonlijke lening 3 -29%

goedkoop lenen 3 100%

persoonlijke lening aanvragen 3 156%

persoonlijke lening berekenen 3 29%

goedkoopste persoonlijke lening 3 83%

zakelijke lening zonder jaarcijfers 3 57%

Loans (excl. mortgages) – March 2020 Mortgages – March 2020

Query Indexed Volume Growth Mar vs. Feb

hypotheek berekenen 100 46%

hypotheekrente 56 87%

hypotheekrente vergelijken 26 52%

hypotheek 23 192%

hoeveel hypotheek kan ik krijgen 16 8%

hypotheek oversluiten 13 133%

maximale hypotheek berekenen 13 26%

maximale hypotheek 8 123%

rente hypotheek 7 66%

actuele hypotheekrente 7 89%

aflossingsvrije hypotheek 7 86%

hypotheek rentetarieven 6 106%

hypotheekrenteaftrek 5 1470%

maandlasten hypotheek berekenen 5 184%

lineaire hypotheek 4 291%

hypotheek berekenen maandlasten 4 56%

hypotheekrente verwachting 3 163%

laagste hypotheekrente 3 110%

hypotheekrentes 3 41%

overwaarde hypotheek 3 90%

hypotheek calculator 3 100%

lineaire hypotheek berekenen 2 211%

overbruggingshypotheek 2 523%

overbruggingshypotheek hoe werkt dat 2 400%

hypotheek vergelijken 2 69%

nationale hypotheek garantie 2 492%

oversluiten hypotheek 2 130%

starterslening 2 491%

rentetarieven hypotheek 2 24%

hypotheekrenteaftrek 2020 2 1375%

Conclusions

Across Europe, lending searches over-indexed the monthly average in Jan-Feb 2020

More men tend to search within this vertical; the share has grown YoY

PC tends to be the main device people search on but Mobile in particular is more commonly

used in UK & Spain

Advertisers may wish to consider device or demographic bid modifiers to reach potential

customers interested in their products

Increasing the days of remarketing goals may help advertisers capitalise on customers that have

searched for certain products but cannot purchase due to current market conditions i.e.

Mortgages & social distancing rules in the UK

Microsoft Advertising’s EMEA AAIG Contacts

THOM ARKESTAALHead of Advertiser Analytics

AKHILA SHESHADRIAnalytical Lead

Tech & Telco /Auto

PHIL JONES

Analytical Lead

Finance/Insurance

SARAH ESSA

Analytical Lead

Travel

BARRY MURRAY

Analytical Lead

Retail

DOUWE VAN DER MEER

Analytical Lead WE

LUCA IMMOVILLI

Analytical Lead IT

PETER HAUBOLD

Analytical Lead DE

THOMAS HERRY

Analytical Lead FR

ZUBAIR PATEL

Data Specialist

DARIO CUGNOData Specialist