loans to households % ch. on prev. year -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0...

KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA

1

This update:(2)

Next update:

DG ECFIN - Directorate A - Policy strategy and co-ordination 2013 2014 5-2015 6-2015 7-2015 8-2015 9-2015 10-2015

LTA(1)2013 2014 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

1. Output

Economic Sentiment indicator 100.1 93.8 101.6 100.8 102.6 103.7 104.6 103.8 103.5 104.0 104.1 105.6 --

Industrial confidence balance -6.7 -9.1 -3.9 -4.5 -4.0 -3.2 -2.9 -3.0 -3.4 -2.9 -3.7 -2.2 --

Services confidence balance 9.0 -5.4 4.8 5.3 5.6 7.6 10.5 7.9 7.9 8.9 10.1 12.4 --

Industrial production % ch. on prev. period 0.5 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 -- -- --

(excluding construction) % ch. on prev. year 0.8 -0.7 0.8 0.3 1.6 1.3 -- 1.6 1.5 1.9 -- -- --

% ch. on prev. period 0.4 0.5 0.4 --

% ch. on prev. year 1.4 -0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.3 0.3 0.0 --

% ch. on prev. year 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 --

2. Private consumption

Consumer confidence balance -13.0 -18.7 -10.1 -11.3 -6.3 -5.3 -7.1 -5.6 -5.6 -7.2 -6.9 -7.1 --

Retail confidence balance -8.6 -12.2 -3.2 -5.1 -1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.5 -1.3 1.1 3.5 4.1 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.6 0.5 0.4 --

% ch. on prev. year 1.2 -0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.7 0.9 0.4 -- 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -- -- --

% ch. on prev. year 0.4 -0.8 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 -- 2.6 1.7 2.7 -- -- --

3. Investment

Capacity utilisation level (%) 81.2 78.4 80.4 80.5 81.0 81.2 81.1 -- -- 81.1 -- -- --

Production expectations (manuf.) balance 5.7 3.3 7.7 6.4 7.3 6.9 8.2 7.6 6.8 7.2 6.6 10.8 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.6 1.4 -0.5 --

% ch. on prev. year 1.2 -2.6 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.8 2.1 0.4 --

% ch. on prev. year -2.2 3.2 1.7 4.7 4.3 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.6 1.9 -1.1 --

% ch. on prev. year -3.6 -0.5 0.3 0.8 1.3 --

Change in stocks contrib. to GDP (pp.) 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 --

4. Labour market

Employment expectations (manuf.) balance -10.3 -9.4 -5.1 -6.1 -3.3 -2.2 -2.8 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -3.0 -2.3 --

Employment expectations (services) balance 5.0 -4.1 1.1 1.3 3.9 6.1 7.2 6.2 6.7 6.0 7.7 8.0 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.1 0.2 0.3 --

% ch. on prev. year 0.4 -0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 --

Employment (000) abs. ch. on prev. period -979 908 169 288 493 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.4 0.5 0.1 --

% ch. on prev. year 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 --

Unemployment expectations balance 27.0 34.4 21.3 23.7 13.4 9.8 14.4 10.6 8.7 12.2 14.3 16.7 --

Unemployment rate % of lab. force 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 -- --

Unemployment (000) abs. ch. on prev. period 1,043 -606 -138 -414 -200 -186 -38 31 -193 -1 -- --

5. International transactions

% ch. on prev. period 1.2 -1.4 -0.3 -- -1.4 2.6 -0.4 -- -- --

% ch. on prev. year 2.5 3.3 3.7 2.4 1.5 -- -0.1 3.4 0.8 -- -- --

Export order books balance -18.8 -21.3 -13.5 -13.3 -12.4 -11.1 -11.5 -10.9 -11.6 -10.1 -12.1 -12.4 --

Trade balance (merchandise) billion EUR 156.5 194.0 62.3 59.4 65.0 22.4 21.3 21.9 22.4 -- -- --

% ch. on prev. period 0.9 1.0 1.6 --

% ch. on prev. year 4.9 2.1 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.2 --

% ch. on prev. period 0.9 1.5 1.0 --

% ch. on prev. year 4.5 1.3 4.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 --

Current-account balance billion EUR 176.7 210.8 57.8 81.7 67.4 22.6 19.2 24.9 22.6 -- -- --

Direct investment billion EUR 13.7 19.7 -17.4 85.0 10.0 29.7 17.8 1.1 29.7 -- -- --

Portfolio investment billion EUR -11.1 94.2 95.9 -131.2 123.6 58.5 20.3 50.6 58.5 -- -- --

6. Prices

Consumer inflation expectations balance 19.7 16.9 8.2 4.7 -2.2 3.0 3.5 3.6 4.8 4.2 3.1 3.2 --

Headline inflation (HICP) % ch. on prev. year 1.4 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 --

Core HICP % ch. on prev. year 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 --

Domestic producer prices % ch. on prev. year -0.2 -1.5 -1.9 -2.9 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.6 -- --

Import prices % ch. on prev. year -1.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 0.8 -- 0.8 0.3 -- -- -- --

level 108.7 99.7 77.8 54.9 62.9 51.2 65.4 63.4 57.1 47.8 48.4 47.5

% ch. on prev. period -24.9 -29.4 14.6 -18.5 9.1 -3.1 -9.9 -16.2 1.2 0.0

% ch. on prev. year -2.7 -8.3 -28.8 -49.2 -42.7 -50.5 -40.1 -43.4 -47.3 -53.7 -51.0 -46.3

level 81.9 74.8 62.4 48.8 57.0 46.1 58.6 56.5 51.9 43.0 43.1 42.5

% ch. on prev. period -20.1 -21.7 16.6 -19.0 4.9 -3.6 -8.2 -17.2 0.4 0.0

% ch. on prev. year -5.8 -8.6 -22.3 -38.1 -28.8 -40.9 -26.4 -31.3 -35.2 -44.6 -43.7 -39.1

% ch. on prev. period 0.4 1.1 -1.3 -7.2 -1.6 -2.4 -1.0 -5.6 -1.6 --

% ch. on prev. year -8.3 -4.4 0.9 2.3 -0.5 -7.0 -0.3 -1.6 -2.4 -9.0 -9.6 --

7. Monetary and financial indicators

Nominal interest rates (3 month) level 0.22 0.21 0.08 0.05 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04

Nominal interest rates (10 year) level 1.59 1.22 0.78 0.34 0.54 0.69 0.60 0.83 0.73 0.65 0.68 0.58

ECB repo rate level 0.55 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

% ch. on prev. period -2.2 10.9 5.2 -6.5 -3.1 -2.7 0.7 -2.8 -8.1 -3.1

% ch. on prev. year 15.8 12.6 2.8 11.4 12.7 6.7 13.2 7.6 11.1 11.5 -2.1 1.2

Money demand (M3) % ch. on prev. year 2.3 1.9 3.1 4.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.3 4.8 -- --

Loans to households % ch. on prev. year -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 -- --

Loans to non-financial corporations % ch. on prev. year -2.9 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 -- --

level 1.33 1.33 1.25 1.13 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12

% ch. on prev. period -5.7 -9.9 -1.9 0.6 3.4 0.6 -1.9 1.3 0.7 0.0

% ch. on prev. year 3.4 0.0 -8.2 -17.8 -19.4 -16.1 -18.8 -17.5 -18.8 -16.3 -13.0 -11.7

% ch. on prev. period -2.2 -6.1 -1.9 1.6 2.1 0.8 -1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1

% ch. on prev. year 3.7 0.6 -3.6 -10.2 -11.9 -8.5 -11.7 -10.2 -10.7 -8.4 -6.2 -5.2

(1) LTA=Long-Term Average (2) Data available until the date of update

Compensation of employees per head

(nominal)

Bilateral exchange rate EUR/USD

Exports of goods and services

Imports of goods and services

Nominal effective exchange rate

Stock market (Eurostoxx)

Non-energy commodity prices (EUR)

Oil (Brent) in EUR

Oil (Brent) in USD

World trade

Private consumption

Gross domestic product

Employment

02-Oct-15

06-Nov-15

Labour productivity

- construction investment

Gross fixed capital formation

- equipment investment

Retail sales


2

1. Output

Real GDP in the euro area continued growing in the

second quarter of 2015 mainly driven by stronger net

exports. According to Eurostat's second estimate, it

increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). As

compared to 2014-Q2, real GDP was 1.5% higher.

According to the Commission's spring 2015 forecast,

released on 5 May, euro-area GDP is expected to

increase by 1.5% and 1.9% in 2015 and 2016

respectively, on the back of private consumption (1.8%

and 1.6% y-o-y in 2015 and 2016 respectively) and

investment (1.7% and 4.0% y-o-y in 2015 and 2016

respectively). Tailwinds such as a weaker euro, low oil

prices and very accommodative monetary policy should

support the strengthening of economic activity.

In September, the Commission's Economic Sentiment

Indicator improved markedly in the euro area (1.5

points increase to 105.6 compared to August). Enhanced

euro-area sentiment resulted from improvements in

confidence in industry, services and, to a lesser extent,

retail trade, which were only partly outweighed by

easing construction confidence. Consumer confidence

remained broadly unchanged.

Industry confidence (+1.5) was propelled by managers'

rallying production expectations and, to a lesser degree,

improved assessments of the current level of overall

order books, while the adequacy of the stocks of finished

products was assessed somewhat more cautiously.

The flash PMI Composite Output Index in September

posted 53.9, down from 54.3 in August. Survey data

pointed to steady growth of the eurozone economy at the

end of the third quarter. Moreover, faster growth of new

work and backlogs of orders point to continued

expansion in coming months.

In July, industrial production rose by 0.6% (m-o-m)

offsetting the loss registered in June. The increase was

due to production of durable consumer goods rising by

1.3%, capital goods by 1.4% and energy by 3.0%, while

production of both intermediate goods and non-durable

consumer goods fell by 0.6%.


In 2015-Q2, private consumption increased by 0.4%

q-o-q (0.5% in 2015-Q1). With respect to the same

period of the previous year, private consumption was up

by 1.9% (1.7% in 2015-Q1), which was the highest rate

since 2007-Q2. In September, consumer confidence

remained broadly flat (-0.2 points compared with

August), reflecting two opposing forces: While

consumers were more upbeat on questions relating to

their personal finances (expected financial situation,

future savings), their views on macro-economic

developments (future general economic situation, future

unemployment) clouded over.

In July, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3%

(m-o-m) after decreasing by 0.1% in June. As compared

to July 2014, retail trade volumes were 2.7% higher. In

September, the upward development in retail trade

confidence (+0.6) reflected managers' growing optimism

about the expected business situation, which was

dampened somewhat however by growing concerns

about the adequacy of the volume of stocks. The

assessment of the present business situation remained

practically unaltered.

3. Investment

In 2015-Q2, gross fixed capital formation decreased by

0.5% q-o-q (+1.4% in 2015-Q1). Compared to the same

quarter of the previous year, investment increased by

1.9%.

The rate of capacity utilisation (data collected in July)

remained broadly stable at 81.1% (0.1 point lower than

in April).

4. Labour market

In August, the unemployment rate remained stable at

11.0% compared to July 2015, and went down from

11.5% in August 2014. Significant differences persist

across Member States, with the lowest rates recorded in

Germany (4.5%) and the highest in Greece (25.2% in

June 2015). In August, youth unemployment (people

aged 15-24) was 22.3% of the labour force of the same

age (compared to 23.6% in August 2014).

In 2015-Q2, seasonally-adjusted employment was 0.3%

higher than in 2015-Q1 and 0.8% higher than in 2014-

Q2. According to the Commission's survey results, in

September employment expectations firmed in retail

trade and industry, while they worsened in construction

and remained broadly unchanged in services.


In July, the world trade volume (goods) decreased by

0.4% m-o-m, following a 2.6% increase in June. In

September, views on export order books in

manufacturing worsened to -12.4 (-0.3 points compared

to August), but remained above the long-term average of

-18.8.

In July, the seasonally adjusted trade balance was in

surplus at €22.4 bn, compared with €21.9 bn in June

2015. The seasonally adjusted current-account balance


3

also recorded a surplus in July (€22.6 bn). Surpluses

were recorded for goods, services, and primary income

(€26.9 bn, €3.6 bn, and €2.8 bn, respectively), whereas a

deficit was registered for secondary income (€10.7 bn).

The financial account in July (combined direct and

portfolio investment) recorded increases of €22 billion in

assets and a decrease of €66 billion in liabilities.

6. Prices

In September, annual HICP inflation was -0.1%

according to Eurostat's flash estimate, down from 0.1%

in August. Looking at the main components of euro area

inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco have the highest

annual rate (1.4%, up from 1.3% in August), followed by

services (1.3%, up from 1.2% in August), and non-

energy industrial goods (0.3%, down from 0.4% in

August). These increases were completely offset by a

strong decline in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with

-7.2% in August).

In September, core inflation (all items excl. energy and

unprocessed food) was at 0.9% (stable since August).

The Commission's spring 2015 forecast projects HICP

inflation at 0.1% in 2015 and at 1.5% in 2016. In

September 2015, consumer price expectations

stabilized compared to August, after having decreased

since June.

In August, industrial producer prices decreased with

0.8% compared to July 2015. Compared to August 2014,

industrial producer prices decreased by 2.6%.

Brent crude oil prices have rebounded until May from

the sharp fall they experienced up to

28 January (47.7 USD/bbl.), mainly driven by supply

factors. Since May, prices have steadily been falling

again to the level of January 2015. On 1 October, Brent

crude traded at 47.84 USD/bbl. (corresponding to

42.89 EUR/bbl.).


Money market interest rates have declined further in

an environment of excess liquidity. On 1 October, the

3-month EURIBOR was at the same rate as it was in

August 2015 (0.0%).

At its meeting on 3 September, the ECB Governing

Council kept policy interest rates on the main

refinancing operations, on the marginal lending facility

and the deposit facility unchanged (at 0.05%, 0.30% and

-0.20% respectively). Regarding non-standard monetary

policy measures, the Governing Council decided to

increase the issue share limit from the initial limit of

25% to 33%, subject to a case-by-case verification that

this would not create a situation whereby the Eurosystem

would have blocking minority power.

Benchmark sovereign bond yields in the euro area

have started increasing since May until mid-June as

inflation expectations have recovered. Since then they

started to decrease, with a sharp drop in early July. On 1

October, the benchmark yield of ten-year sovereign

bonds stood at 0.55%.

The July 2015 Bank Lending Survey confirmed a

further net easing of credit standards on loans to

enterprises in the second quarter of 2015 (-3%, after

-10% in the previous quarter), which was stronger than

the April survey round expectations. Credit standards on

loans to households for house purchase eased

considerably (-9%, from 2% in the previous quarter) as

did standards on consumer credit and other lending to

households (-4%, from -5%).

The annual rate of change of M3 decreased to 4.8% in

August 2015 (from 5.3% in July). The annual growth in

loans to the private sector stood at 1.0% (up from 0.9%

in April). The annual growth in loans to households

(adjusted for sales and securitisation) slightly increased

to 1.0% (from 0.9% in July), and the annual growth rate

of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted)

increased to 0.4% (from 0.3% in July).

In its statement of 17 September, the FOMC reaffirmed

its view that the current 0 to ¼% target range for the

federal funds rate remains appropriate. The Committee

will assess progress -both realized and expected- toward

its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent

inflation. On 1 October, the US 3-month Libor rate stood

at 0.324%.

After its 2015 low of 1.06 in mid-April the EUR/USD

exchange rate has rebounded to around 1.12 in

September. On 1 October the EUR/USD exchange rate

stood at 1.1153. Factors at play are the market

uncertainty, diverging monetary policy, and the impact

of the ECB's quantitative easing. On 1 October, the

JPY/EUR foreign exchange reference rate stood at

133.56.

Stock market indices in the US (Dow Jones and

S&P500) took losses of over 10% between mid and end

August, from which they have only partially recovered

in September. In Japan, the index decreased almost 10%

in the last three weeks of August, and keeps on noting

lower in September. In Europe, stock markets have lost

over 10% in the course of August and have not

recovered since then. On 1 October, European and

Japanese indices lost around 3% compared to 1

September, while US indices noted around 1% higher

compared to one month ago.


4

GDP Contributions to GDP growth

BE 0.4

DE 0.4

EE 0.7

IE 1.9

EL 0.9

ES 1.0

FR 0.0

IT 0.3

CY 0.5

LV 1.2

LT 0.4

LU --

MT 1.1

NL 0.2

AT 0.1

PT 0.5

SI 0.7

SK 0.8

FI 0.2

EA 0.4

GDP and Economic Sentiment Indicator Industrial and services confidence

Employment (000)

Industrial production GDP growth divergence, euro area

BE 0.6

DE 0.5

EE -5.9

IE 17.9

EL -1.5

ES 5.4

FR -1.4

IT 2.7

CY 3.6

LV 8.3

LT 6.6

LU 0.7

MT 7.7

NL -4.4

AT 3.6

PT 3.0

SI 3.3

SK 11.9

FI -1.4

EA 1.9

15Q2

Jul-15

1. OUTPUT

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

industrial confid. and long-term average (lhs)

services confid. and long-term average (rhs)

balance balance

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

GDP (lhs) economic sentiment (rhs)

indicatoryoy %

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

industrial production 3-month moving average

yoy %

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

qoq %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

standard deviation of qoq growth

standard deviation of yoy growth

pps.

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

net exports domestic demand

inventories GDP growth (qoq %)

pps. (qoq)


5

Private consumption Household adjusted gross disposable income

BE 0.5

DE 0.2

EE 1.3

IE 0.4

EL 1.0

ES 1.0

FR 0.0

IT 0.4

CY 0.6

LV 0.7

LT 2.7

LU --

MT 0.3

NL 0.3

AT 0.1

PT 1.1

SI 0.9

SK 0.6

FI -0.2

EA 0.4

Retail sales Consumer confidence and private consumption

BE 2.0

DE 3.7

EE 7.8

IE 6.2

EL -7.3

ES 3.4

FR 3.7

IT 2.4

CY --

LV 4.2

LT 5.4

LU -10.5

MT 4.9

NL 2.3

AT 2.2

PT 1.7

SI 0.1

SK 1.6

FI 0.5

EA 2.7

Households: real disposable income and consumption Households: actual saving rate and expected savings

2. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

15Q2

Jul-15

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

private consumption (lhs)

consumer confidence and long-term average (rhs)

balanceyoy %

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

qoq %

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

real disposable income private consumption

yoy %

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

household saving rate - difference to the same quarter of theprevious year (lhs)

expected savings (over next 12 months) (rhs)

pps. balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

retail sales 3-month moving average

yoy %

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

14Q414Q314Q214Q113Q413Q3

wages (received)

gross operating surplus and mixed income

net property income and other current transfers

social benefits - taxes

gross disposable income (q-o-q%)

pps.


6

Gross fixed capital formation Gross fixed capital formation and corporate loans

BE -9.6

DE -0.4

EE 0.0

IE 19.2

EL -10.6

ES 2.0

FR -0.2

IT -0.3

CY -26.5

LV 1.9

LT 5.9

LU --

MT 4.2

NL 3.2

AT 0.0

PT 1.1

SI -1.6

SK 3.9

FI 0.0

EA -0.5

Equipment and construction investment Equipment investment and capacity utilisation

Equipment investment and production expectations Gross fixed capital formation and profit share

6.6

3. INVESTMENT

15Q2

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

equipment investment (lhs)

capacity utilisation in manufacturing (rhs)

level (%)yoy %

-0.5

1.4

0.6

0.3

-0.5

0.4

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

qoq %

40

41

42

43

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

gross fixed capital formation (nominal) (lhs)

profit share (nominal) (rhs)

% of GDP% of GDP

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

equipment investment (lhs)

production expectations in manufacturing (rhs)

balanceyoy %

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

equipment investment construction investment

yoy %

-5

0

5

10

15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

gross fixed capital formation (lhs)

loans to non-financial corporations (rhs)

yoy %yoy %


7

Employment Employment and employment expectations

BE 0.2

DE 0.1

EE 0.8

IE 0.9

EL 1.2

ES 0.9

FR 0.1

IT 0.2

CY 0.1

LV 0.1

LT -0.1

LU --

MT 0.5

NL --

AT 0.2

PT 0.9

SI 0.3

SK 0.7

FI -0.3

EA 0.3

Actual and structural unemployment rate Unemployment rate and unemployment expectations

BE 8.8

DE 4.5

EE --

IE 9.5

EL --

ES 22.2

FR 10.8

IT 11.9

CY 15.3

LV 9.9

LT 9.6

LU 5.9

MT 5.1

NL 6.8

AT 5.7

PT 12.4

SI 9.4

SK 11.1

FI 9.7

EA 11.0

Compensation per head and negotiated wages (nominal) Labour costs in the private business sector (nominal)

7.6

4. LABOUR MARKET

15Q2

Aug-15

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

actual unemployment rate

structural unemployment rate

% of labour force

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

compensation per employee negotiated wages

yoy %

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

qoq %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

total wage costs non-wage costs

yoy %

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

unemployment rate (lhs)

consumer unemployment expectations (rhs)

% of labour force balance

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

employment (lhs)

employment expectations (whole economy) (rhs)

yoy % balance


8

Exports and imports of goods and services Exports and export order books

World trade Extra euro-area trade balance

Extra- and intra-euro-area trade Current-account balance

5. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-18

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

exports of goods and services (lhs)

export order books and long-term average (rhs)

balanceyoy %

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

extra-euro-area exports extra-euro-area imports

intra-euro-area-trade

yoy % (of nominal values)

1.6

1.0

0.9

1.5

1.2

0.6

1.0

1.5

0.9

1.7

1.2

0.9

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

15Q215Q114Q414Q314Q214Q1

exports imports

qoq %

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

current account balance 3-month moving average

bn EUR

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

world trade (goods) 3-month moving average

yoy %

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

extra-euro area trade balance 3-month moving average

bn EUR


9

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) HICP headline and core inflation

BE 0.8 BE 1.5

DE 0.1 DE 1.0

EE 0.2 EE 1.1

IE 0.2 IE 1.5

EL -0.4 EL 0.8

ES -0.5 ES 0.6

FR 0.1 FR 0.5

IT 0.4 IT 1.0

CY -1.9 CY -0.3

LV 0.2 LV 0.9

LT -1.0 LT 0.9

LU 0.1 LU 1.9

MT 1.4 MT 1.7

NL 0.4 NL 1.0

AT 0.9 AT 1.9

PT 0.7 PT 0.7

SI -0.6 SI 0.3

SK -0.2 SK 0.2

FI -0.2 FI 0.4

EA 0.1 EA 0.9

Breakdown of core inflation Energy and unprocessed food

Domestic producer prices and import prices Oil prices

6. PRICES

Aug-15 Aug-15

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

HICP min HICP

max HICP HICP flash

yoy %

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

non-energy industrial goods

services

processed food

yoy %

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

domestic producer prices import prices

yoy %

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

HICP

Core inflation (all items excl. energy and unproc. food)

Core inflation flash

yoy %

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

oil prices and 3-month ma (USD/bl.)

oil prices and 3-month ma (EUR/bl.)

level

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

energy unprocessed food

yoy%


10

Nominal interest rates Loans to private sector and money supply

Real interest rates Euro vis-à-vis US dollar and JP yen

Stock market indices Nominal effective exchange rates

7. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Eurostoxx Dow Jones Nikkei

index, 01.01.1999=100

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

EUR/USD and 30-day ma (lhs)

EUR/JPY and 30-day ma (rhs)

level level

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Euro area United States Japan

index, 2005=100

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

repo rate short-term long-term

% p.a.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

loans to private sector M3 (centred ma)

yoy %

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

long term (10-year yield government bonds)

short term (3-months EURIBOR)

% p.a.


11

General government balance General government expenditure and receipts

BE -3.2 BE 44.7

DE 0.7 DE 38.4

EE 0.6 EE 32.8

IE -4.1 IE 29.4

EL -3.5 EL 35.3

ES -5.8 ES 33.2

FR -4.0 FR 45.8

IT -3.0 IT 43.2

CY -8.8 CY 34.2

LV -1.4 LV 31.1

LT -0.7 LT 24.7

LU 0.6 LU 39.7

MT -2.1 MT 34.2

NL -2.3 NL 37.6

AT -2.4 AT 43.1

PT -4.5 PT 34.2

SI -4.9 SI 36.5

SK -2.9 SK 30.7

FI -3.2 FI 44.2

EA -2.4 EA 40.2

Primary balance Cyclically adjusted balance

BE -0.2 BE -2.5

DE 2.4 DE 1.2

EE 0.7 EE 0.0

IE -0.1 IE -4.2

EL 0.4 EL 1.0

ES -2.5 ES -2.3

FR -1.8 FR -2.6

IT 1.6 IT -0.8

CY -6.0 CY -6.1

LV -0.1 LV -2.0

LT 0.9 LT -0.9

LU 1.0 LU 1.8

MT 0.8 MT -2.3

NL -0.8 NL -0.3

AT 0.0 AT -1.7

PT 0.5 PT -1.9

SI -1.6 SI -3.6

SK -0.9 SK -1.7

FI -1.9 FI -1.5

EA 0.2 EA -0.9

Cyclically adjusted primary balance General government debt

BE 0.6 BE 106.5

DE 2.9 DE 74.7

EE 0.2 EE 10.6

IE -0.1 IE 109.7

EL 4.9 EL 177.1

ES 0.9 ES 97.7

FR -0.4 FR 95.0

IT 3.9 IT 132.1

CY -3.2 CY 107.5

LV -0.6 LV 40.0

LT 0.7 LT 40.9

LU 2.2 LU 23.6

MT 0.6 MT 68.0

NL 1.1 NL 68.8

AT 0.7 AT 84.5

PT 3.1 PT 130.2

SI -0.3 SI 80.9

SK 0.2 SK 53.6

FI -0.2 FI 59.3

EA 1.7 EA 94.2

* Figures are from the Commission's spring 2015 forecast

2014 2014

8. PUBLIC FINANCES

tax burden

2014 2014

2014 2014

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP

Expenditures

Receipts

Tax burden

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP

-5.5

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% of GDP


12

Euro area

Indicators as from 2011 refer to Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Estonia (EE), Ireland (IE), Greece (GR), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK) and Finland (FI).

Indicator Note Source

1. Output

Sentiment Indicator The economic sentiment indicator is the weighted average (of the industrial confidence indicator (40%), the services confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%) and the retail trade confidence indicator (5%)). Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Industrial confidence indicator

The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks (the latter with inverted sign) from the survey of manufacturing industry. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Services confidence indicator

The services confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring to the questions on business situation and recent and expected evolution of demand from the survey of services. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Industrial production Monthly Industry Production Index (2010=100), NACE Rev.2, Total industry (excluding construction). Mom% and qoq% ch. are seasonally and working day adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Gross domestic product Real gross domestic product at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes (2010), ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Labour productivity Labour productivity defined as the difference between GDP growth and employment growth.

Eurostat

GDP divergence Standard deviation of GDP growth rates of the euro-area Member States. Eurostat


Consumer confidence indicator

The consumer confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring to the questions on the financial situation of households, general economic situation, unemployment expectations (with inverted sign) and savings; all over next 12 months. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Retail confidence indicator The retail confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring to the questions on the present and the future business situation and the volume of stocks (with inverted sign). The long-term average refers to the period from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Private consumption Real household & NPISH final consumption expenditure at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes (2010), ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Retail sales

Retail trade (NACE Rev.2 G47) excluding motor vehicles, motorcycles; Deflated turnover, mom% ch. and qoq% ch. are seasonally adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

3. Investment

Capacity utilisation In percent of full capacity in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted (collected in January, April, July and October).

DG ECFIN

Production expectations Production expectations in manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted. DG ECFIN

Gross fixed capital formation

Real gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes (2010), ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Equipment investment Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, reference year (2010), ESA 2010), EUR, real machinery and equipment and weapons systems. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Construction investment Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, reference year (2010), ESA 2010), EUR, dwellings and other buildings and structures. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Change in stocks Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables (at prices of previous year).

Eurostat

Profit share Ratio of nominal gross operating surplus and gross mixed income to nominal GDP Eurostat


13

4. Labour market

Employment expectations (manufacturing)

Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Employment expectations (services)

Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the services sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Employment expectations (whole economy)

Weighted average of managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the manufacturing (19%), services (65%), construction (6%) and retail sectors (10%). Weights in brackets according to value-added share on GDP of the respective sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Employment

Total domestic employment (number of persons). Data are seasonally adjusted for Ireland, Greece, France, Cyprus, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia, and seasonally and working day adjusted data for the remaining Member States.

Eurostat

Compensation of employees per head

Nominal compensation of employees divided by the number of employees. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Unemployment expectations Consumers' unemployment expectations over the next twelve months. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Unemployment rate Harmonised unemployment rate (in percent of labour force), ILO definition. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Eurostat

Structural unemployment rate Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Data are seasonally adjusted. DG ECFIN

Total labour costs Nominal wage- and non-wage costs less subsidies in the private business sector. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Wage costs Nominal wage and salary costs include direct remuneration, bonuses, and allowances, payments to employees saving schemes, payments for days not worked and remuneration in kind. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Non-wage costs Nominal non-wage costs include the employers’ social contributions plus employment taxes less subsidies. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Labour productivity Ratio between GDP and employment. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

DG ECFIN


World trade Volume, 2005=100, seasonally adjusted CPB

Export order books Managers' export order expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Extra-euro area exports Nominal extra-euro area exports of goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat

Extra-euro area imports Nominal extra-euro area imports of goods, cif. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat

Extra-euro area trade balance Difference between extra-euro area exports and extra-euro area imports. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Eurostat

Intra-euro area trade Nominal intra-euro area trade in goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted. Eurostat

Current-account balance Transactions in goods and services plus income and current transfers between residents and non- residents of the euro area. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

ECB

Exports of goods and services Exports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, reference year 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes, reference year 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.

Eurostat

Direct investment Nominal transactions/positions in assets abroad by euro-area residents less nominal transactions/positions in euro-area assets by non-residents. To be regarded as a direct investment, ownership in an enterprise must be equivalent to more than 10% of the ordinary shares or voting power.

ECB

Portfolio investment Nominal transactions/positions in securities (including equities) abroad by euro-area residents less nominal transactions/positions in euro-area securities (including equities) by non-residents. To be regarded as a portfolio investment, ownership in an enterprise must be equivalent to less than 10% of the ordinary shares or voting power.

ECB


14

6. Prices

HICP Harmonised index of consumer prices (index 2005=100) Eurostat

Core HICP HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food (index 2005=100) Eurostat

Producer prices Domestic producer price index, total industry excluding construction (index 2010=100)

Eurostat

Selling price expectation Managers' selling-price expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.

DG ECFIN

Import prices Import price index, manufacturing (index 2010=100) Eurostat

Oil prices Price of north sea Brent in USD/barrel and EUR/barrel ICE

Non-energy commodity prices Market price for non-fuel commodities in EUR terms (index 2010=100) HWWI


Nominal interest rate (3-month) 3-month EURIBOR interbank rate (360 days) ECB/ Global Insight

Nominal interest rate (10-year) 10-year interest rate on government bonds for euro area (based upon the 10-year German government bond)

ECB/ Global Insight

ECB repo rate Minimum bid rate of main refinancing operations, end of period. ECB/ Global Insight

Money demand (M3) Monetary aggregate including currency in circulation (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, all other deposits and repurchase agreements. Data are seasonally adjusted.

ECB

Loans to private sector Loans by MFI (monetary and financial institutions) to euro area residents (excl government). Data are seasonally adjusted.

ECB

Real long-term interest rates Nominal interest rate (10-year) deflated by HICP index DG ECFIN

Real short-term interest rates Nominal interest rate (3-month) deflated by HICP index DG ECFIN

Stock markets Eurostoxx50, Dow Jones and Nikkei indices (1.1.1999=100) Global Insight

Exchange rates EUR/USD and EUR/JPY reference rates ECB

Nominal effective exchange rate Graph – Monthly Nominal Effective Exch. Rates vs. rest of IC36 (index 2005 = 100) Table - ECB Nominal effective exch. rate, based on weighted averages of bilateral euro exchange rates (EA19) against the currencies of the EER-18 group.

DG ECFIN/

ECB

8. Public finance

General government balance Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government DG ECFIN

Primary government balance Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government minus interest payment

DG ECFIN

Cyclically adjusted balance Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government corrected for the influence of the business cycle

DG ECFIN

Cyclically adjusted primary balance

Primary government balance corrected for the influence of the business cycle DG ECFIN

General government expenditures and receipts

Nominal expenditures and receipts; tax burden includes taxes on production and imports (incl. taxed paid to EU), current taxes on income and wealth (direct taxes) and actual social contributions

DG ECFIN

General government debt Cumulative sum of net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) positions of general government

DG ECFIN

loans to households % ch. on prev. year -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0...

Documents