local housing market economic impact report ada...

Presented by:

Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC

Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho

January 30, 2019

Boise, ID

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET

&

ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT

ADA COUNTY

Introduction & Welcome

Topics:

1. 2018 Local Housing Report & 2019 Forecast

2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building

3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA

and Savings

Local Housing Report

Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

5892 6098

6761 6726

7565

8991

12208

10370

6839

5154

5683

6172 6498

7115

8124 7963

9553

11048 11263

11559

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

Total Single Family Home Sales


2210 2609

3125

4900

3815

1877

1366 1190

986 878

1433 1674 1552

1778

2596 2774

3279

4678

5265

5998

7349

6538

5131

3873

4493

5186

5620 5682

6450 6411

7775

8452 8489 8280

5892 6098

6761 6726

7565

8991

12208

10370

6839

5154

5683

6172 6498

7115

8124 7963

9553

11048 11263

11559

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales


$2

42

,450

$2

59,2

78

$2

51,2

00

$25

3,0

00

$2

61

,10

3

$2

73

,90

0

$27

0,4

59

$27

9,1

10

$2

75

,000

$2

70

,000

$2

69

,65

0

$27

7,9

77

$27

9,9

00

$29

8,4

50

$30

6,5

46

$2

97

,00

0

$30

5,0

00

$3

24

,29

5

$31

6,5

00

$33

3,9

00

$31

8,6

00

$3

21

,39

8

$32

4,2

50

$3

24,9

00

15%

22%

17% 17%

18%

20%

16%

19%

20%

15% 15%

18% 19%

18% 17% 17% 18%

17% 17% 17% 18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% C

han

ge

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $

Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY


$311

,19

0

$3

40,0

00

$311

,751

$32

0,7

68

$3

17

,990

$3

45

,00

0

$3

34

,90

0

$3

53

,82

5

$3

50

,00

0

$3

54

,90

0

$3

39,5

00

$3

56

,29

9

$3

65,7

52

$36

2,0

00

$34

4,5

35

$37

5,5

46

$3

49

,713

$3

92

,52

6

$3

79

,90

0

$3

88

,23

5

$3

57

,50

0

$3

76

,00

0

$38

7,7

80

$4

03,2

72

18%

6%

17%

10%

14% 13%

6%

2%

6%

14% 13%

11% 11%

12% 11% 11% 11% 11%

10% 10% 11% 11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000


% C

han

ge

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $

Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ada County Permits

Single Family Permits

Mulit-Family Permits

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Single Family Permits

Boise

Meridian

Eagle

Star

Kuna

Ada County

Garden City

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Multi-Family Permits

Boise

Meridian

Eagle

Star

Kuna

Ada County

Garden City


4270

4424

4648

4882 4995

5077 5049

4878 4772

4573

4409

3948

1704 1759 1746

1904

2060 2118

2240 2189 2153

2015

1371 1406 1504

1705 1808

1967 1952 1937 2013

1897

1185 1178 1209 1279 1287

1463 1530

1659

1884 1817

1677

1506

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500


A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY

2008 2016 2017 2018


3005

3206

3405

3581

3770

3910 3920

3795 3706

3555

3430

3029

875

994 1034

1154

1274 1353

1495 1440

1378

1183

902

678

555 640

737

920

1052

1270 1228 1226 1199

1068

797

582

424 489

562

679 704

816 862 885

1005

889

700

503

300

800

1300

1800

2300

2800

3300

3800


A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY

2008 2016 2017 2018


1265

1218 1243

1301

1225

1167

1129

1083 1066

1018

979

919

765

712

750

786 765

749

775

832 838 843

816

766 767 785

756

697

724 711

814 829

848 840

761

689

647

600 583

647 668

774

879

930

977 1003

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400


A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY

2008 2016 2017 2018

12 MODIFIED ON 1/10/19 11:15 AM Information pulled on 1/10/19

Resale vs. New Construction Inventory Ada County

2 0 1 7 / 2 0 1 8

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

424

489

562

679704

816862

885

1005

889

700

503

761

689647

600 583

647 668

774

879930

9771003

Resale New Construction


3.8

4.2

3.5

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.9

2.8 2.8

2.5

2.7

3.3

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.9 2.0

2.1 2.1 2.1

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8 1.7 1.7

1.8 1.9

1.8

1.6 1.5

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.2 1.2 1.3

1.5

1.8 1.9

1.8

1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015 J

an

Mar

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2016 J

an

Mar

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2017 J

an

Mar

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2018 J

an

Mar

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell

Pre

sen

t In

ve

nto

ry

A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds


0

1

0

1

3

2

3

4

9

0

1.4

0

0

0

0

1

2

2

2

3

7

1.6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

$100-119,999

$120-159,999

$160-199,999

$200-249,999

$250-299,999

$300-399,999

$400-499,999

$500-699,999

$700-999,999

$1,000,000 +

Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC23 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds


7.0 7.1

6.1 6.2

6.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

5.7

5.3

5.6

5.0

5.3

6.0

4.4

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.7

3.5 3.6

3.9 4.1

4.7

5.3

3.8 3.7

3.9

2.9 2.9

3.1

3.4 3.5

3.8 3.9 3.8

3.5

2.7 2.6

2.2 2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0 2015 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2016 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2017 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2018 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell

Pre

sen

t In

ve

nto

ry

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds


0

0

3

6

3

4

6

24

0

4

0

0

1

4

4

4

4

5

11

4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

$120-159,999

$160-199,999

$200-249,999

$250-299,999

$300-399,999

$400-499,999

$500-699,999

$700-999,999

$1,000,000 +

Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC24 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds


$268,7

70

$302,5

00

$301,7

70

$307,4

21

$306,7

41

$319,2

00

$309,2

83

$298,4

23

$285,9

87

$304,9

00

$288,6

66

$305,1

20

$313,7

48

$305,1

82

$282,5

00

$278,1

06

$297,1

50

$315,4

00

$285,9

27

$349,6

42

$328,3

08

$309,0

00

$334,1

64

$320,0

00

$286,1

25

$299,9

85

$296,0

00

$318,7

60

$316,4

50

$304,6

29

$314,9

00

$326,6

62

$317,3

25

$333,4

50

$311,8

37

$307,8

62

$311,1

90

$340,0

00

$311,7

51

$320,7

68

$317,9

90

$345,0

00

$334,9

00

$353,8

25

$350,0

00

$329,9

00

$339,5

00

$356,2

99

$365,7

52

$362,0

00

$344,5

35

$375,5

46

$349,7

13

$392,5

26

$379,9

00

$388,2

35

$357,5

00

$376,0

00

$387,7

80

$403,2

72

30% 29%

32%

30%

33%

32%

33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

% o

f M

ed

ian

In

c t

o b

uy M

ed

ian

pri

ced

ho

me

Sin

gle

Mo

nth

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index

Single Month Median Sales $ Affordability Index


$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

A57 - Ada County Market Correction - DECEMBER 2018

Yearly Existing Median Sales Price Equity Existing Median Sales Price 3.7% Appreciation Line - 2000 Base Year

➢ Sales: UP (18+%)

➢ Price: UP (12%)

➢ Permits: UP (5.5%)

➢ Inventory: UP (19%)

➢ Distressed Inventory: VERY LOW

➢ Months Supply: FLAT (4.1)

➢ Affordability: DOWN

Local Housing Report2018 New Construction Summary

New Construction Forecast


✓ 2018 Prediction: More of the same (use caution)✓Sales should be strong, but

✓Price gains not the same % increase as last year

✓“Later innings”

✓ 2018 Wild Cards:

✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?

✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?

✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices

✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs

✓ Commercial construction .... Will it is absorb more trades / labor?

✓ Government Regulations …. Local and National

✓ Trump Effect … Trade Wars, Tax Code, Gov’t Spending, Regulations, etc)


✓2019 Prediction:

✓Strong Sales, and….

✓Price Resistance (Be Smart)✓ Price gains not the same % increase as last year

✓ “Later innings”


✓ 2019 Prediction: Strong Sales and Price Resistance✓ “Later innings”

✓ Wild Cards (KNOWN):✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?

✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?

✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices

✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs

✓ Government Regulations - Local and National

✓ Wild Cards (BIG UNKNOWN):

✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Government Shutdowns, Trump vs. all

More Trends & Impacts

✓ Millennials and Boomers will dominate market

✓ What do Millennials want?

✓ Boomers downsizing = Selling McMansions

✓ Price spread between New and Existing Homes

✓ Over 24% is better, but still concerning

✓ Fewer homes on the market is the new normal

✓ Price pressures in the most expensive markets

✓ Opposition to new housing will continue

1/18/19, 3(28 PMSix ideas to cont rol Boise growth now. | Idaho Statesman

Page 1 of 7ht tps://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers- opinion/ar t icle214802600.html

GUEST OPINIONS

Six ways to con t ro l Bo ise growth

now. First , stop the se lf-p rom ot ion .

Boise is one of the nation 's fastest-growing cit ies. Here's a look at what's

already been built and what' s to come for Idaho's capital.

By Kelsey Grey !

“When the burdens of the presidency seem unusually heavy, I

always remind myself it could be worse. I could be a mayor.”

BY DAVID KLINGER " # ! $JULY 13, 2018 10:24 AM, UPDATED JULY 16, 2018 05:53 AM

56% 50%

50% 50%

50% 50%

SHARE $

SIGN IN SUBSCRIBESECTIONS

1/18/19, 3(28 PMSix ideas to cont rol Boise growth now. | Idaho Statesman

Page 1 of 7ht tps://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers- opinion/ar t icle214802600.html

GUEST OPINIONS

Six ways to contro l Boise growth

now. First , stop the se lf-p romotion.

Boise is one of the nation 's fastest-growing cit ies. Here's a look at what's

already been built and what' s to come for Idaho's capital.

By Kelsey Grey !

“When the burdens of the presidency seem unusually heavy, I

always remind myself it could be worse. I could be a mayor.”

BY DAVID KLINGER " # ! $JULY 13, 2018 10:24 AM, UPDATED JULY 16, 2018 05:53 AM

56% 50%

50% 50%

50% 50%

SHARE $

SIGN IN SUBSCRIBESECTIONS

1/22/19, 9 ' 03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/

A home under construction in EastBoise. Photo by Anne Wallace Allen

Treasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with population, job growth

! By: Steve Sinovic " January 22, 2019 # 0

Despite a hot economy with steady increases in wages and employment,

many Treasure Valley residents can’t keep pace with the rising cost of

housing.

That subject was front and center last week when mortgage lenders,

realtors, housing advocates and business and community leaders came

together for a Mayor’s Summit on Housing and Growth.

The program was sponsored by the Idaho Mortgage Lenders Association

and featured Boise Mayor Dave Bieter, Meridian Mayor Tammy de Weerd

and Nampa Mayor Debbie Kling.

The panelists addressed IMLA’s largest luncheon group to date at the Red Lion Downtowner – 160 attendees.

The valley’s rapid growth, shrinking affordability and other growing pains are issues that the mayors are all worried

about, said de Weerd. But it takes more than just public policy initiatives to ease the strain. The development

community also “needs to be in the room” to help find solutions, said de Weerd.

When asked to identify some of the ways their respective cities’ housing costs and supply could be dealt with, the

mayors cited a ramping up of economic development efforts; zoning changes to attract higher density projects; and

encouraging builders to develop subdivisions where there’s a mix of price points and housing types.

Attracting more family wage employers and helping existing businesses grow also is high on the mayors’ collective

radar.

“We don’t spend a lot of time recruiting companies that don’t pay better,” said Bieter. “We work that (effort) hard.”

In Boise during the past five years, the multifamily sector accounted for 60 percent of new housing, said Bieter. “The

right design is so important to gaining acceptance from nearby residents,” said Bieter, referring to a shift from the

skinny house look to something a little more creative on tight lots.

Boise’s plan to address rising housing prices extends to the rental sector. Along with helping fund the 160-unit Adare

Manor affordable housing project now rising along Fairview Avenue, the city is working to create a land trust funded

through public-private partnerships, as well as shifts in the zoning code to allow for denser development.

The state government has work to do, as well, said Bieter. The state budget allocates a small amount of money for

affordable housing support, but there’s no money currently earmarked for that purpose.

While metro-area wages rose 4 percent a year since 2014, median home prices increased about 30 percent in that

time, according to 2018’s MetroStudy Treasure Valley. Mortgage activity is down 7 percent from last quarter, the

IMLA reported.

The study estimated that to purchase a home priced at $275,000 in Ada County, the borrower would need an

income of $63,185. In Canyon County, a buyer pulling down $49,073 could qualify for a home priced at $195,000.

1/22/19, 9 '03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/






housing.















radar.












IMLA reported.



1/22/19, 9'03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/






housing.















radar.












IMLA reported.



1/22/19, 9'03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace-with- populat ion- job- growth/






housing.















radar.












IMLA reported.



Recent quotes in the news….


Morgan Stanley CEO says …..

“it is ‘extremely negative’ if the government shutdown goes on much longer”

“if it goes on for months of this year, it’s going to have an extremely damaging effect” on the economy.


1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/

Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot

North Architecture.

Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019


The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.

Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets

poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.

The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed

housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new

construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and

which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.

Boise landed No. 8 on the list.

According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is

due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other

markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-

earned cash.”

The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com

data.

The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and

attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.

“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the

prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.

One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since

last year.

“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.

According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,

Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.

“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”

said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be

first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”

While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.

It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,

prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks

to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax

changes pricing more buyers out of the market.

Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019

1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/

Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot

North Architecture.

Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019


The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.

Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets

poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.

The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed

housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new

construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and

which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.

Boise landed No. 8 on the list.

According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is

due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other

markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-

earned cash.”

The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com

data.

The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and

attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.

“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the

prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.

One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since

last year.

“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.

According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,

Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.

“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”

said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be

first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”

While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.

It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,

prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks

to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax

changes pricing more buyers out of the market.

Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019

NAHB Local Housing

Economic Impact Study

for Ada County

December 2018

Phase II: The Construction Ripple

Phase III: Ongoing Impacts

Phase I: Construction

Local Housing Economic ImpactBackground

Economic Direct Impact2018 SF Residential Construction

Ada County 2018

# of SF Building Permits: 4,540

Median house price: $390,000

Permit/Impact fees: $13,500

Annual property taxes: $4,463

5

Impact of Building 4,540 Single-family Homes

in Ada County, Idaho

Summary

Total One-Year Impact: Sum of Phase I and Phase II:

Local Income Local Business

Owners’ Income

Local Wages and

Salaries Local Taxes1

Local Jobs

Supported

$1,310,419,600 $397,656,000 $912,763,700 $110,859,400 20,615

Phase I: Direct and Indirect Impact of Construction Activity:

Local Income

Business Owners’ Income

Local Wages and Salaries

Local Taxes1

Local Jobs Supported

$893,637,000 $303,294,100 $590,342,900 $77,297,500 12,894

Phase II: Induced (Ripple) Effect of Spending the Income and Taxes from Phase I:

Local Income

Business Owners’ Income


Local Taxes1

Local Jobs Supported

$416,782,600 $94,361,900 $322,420,800 $33,561,900 7,721

Phase III: Ongoing, Annual Effect that Occurs When New Homes are Occupied:

Local Income

Local Business Owners’ Income


Local Taxes1 Local Jobs Supported

$179,049,600 $41,118,400 $137,931,100 $34,792,100 3,343

1 The term local taxes is used as a shorthand for local government revenue from all sources: taxes, fees, fines, revenue from government-owned enterprises, etc.

Economic Impact2018 SF Residential Construction

Economic Direct Impact2018 SF Residential Construction

Total Taxes & Fees paid to local governments:

Total Permit & Impact Fees: $61,290,000

Property Taxes & Other Fees: $16,007,500

TOTAL $77,297,500

Note: Total Fees Paid = total permits x permit fees

Property Taxes = ½ of total permits x home value x avg. levy

Local HousingDoes Growth Pay For Itself ?

4

The difference between government revenue and current expenditures is defined as an “operating surplus.” In the case of single-family construction, the operating surplus generated during the first year is large enough to service and pay off all debt incurred by investing in structures and equipment at the beginning of the first year by the end of

the first year. After that, future operating surpluses will be available to finance other projects or reduce taxes. After 15 years, the homes will generate a cumulative $598.7 million in revenue compared to $279.2 million in costs, including annual current

expenses, capital investment, and interest on debt (Figure 3).

Costs Compared to Revenue: Multifamily Construction This section summarizes results for multifamily construction. As with the section on single-

family construction, relevant assumptions about the units built can be found in The Metro Area Impact of Home Building in Ada County, Idaho: Income, Jobs and Taxes Generated.

In the first year, the 1,759 multifamily housing units built in Ada County result in an

estimated $28.2 million in tax and other revenue for local governments, $1.6 million in current expenditures by local government to provide public

services to the net new households at current levels, and $22.9 million in capital investment for new structures and equipment

undertaken by local governments The analysis assumes that local governments finance the capital investment by borrowing at the current municipal bond rate.

In a typical year after the year after the second, when increased property tax payments

become fully phased in, the 1,759 multifamily units generate $6.9 million in tax and other revenue for local governments, and $3.2 million in local government expenditures needed to continue providing

services at current levels.

Top Regulatory Issues

Addressed by BCA in 2018

Top BCA issues in 2018

1. State Building Codes (Residential, Energy, etc.)

2. ACHD Development Policies

3. Meridian Building Dept.

(Plan Reviews, inspections)

4. Builder Job Site Theft

Est. Savings / home

$7,000

$2,000

$750

$$$

Current Local Regulatory Issues

1. State Building Codes

2018 Residential, Energy, etc.

➢ Boise City uses different codes than other cities

2. Legislative Issues:

➢ Contractor Registration vs. Licensing

3. Positive Public Relations Outreach

Top Regulatory Issues

Estimated Savings in 2017 - 2018

$20,000 per home

... 10 homes = $200,000

... 100 homes = $2,000,000

✓ For every $1,000 increase in home = 482 people priced

out of the local housing market

Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC

Call: 208-850-1070

Email: [email protected]

QUESTIONS?

DATA SOURCES

LOCAL HOUSING REPORT – YEAR END 2018

• Intermountain MLS, Webb Charts, National Association of Relators

NAHB LOCAL HOUSING ECONOMIC IMPACT – DEC. 2018

• Building Costs & Sales Price: Local Builders, Developers & IMLS

• Permits: Ada County and Cities

• Local Gov’t Revenue (building permit, impact & connection fees,

prop. taxes, etc.): Ada County and City Building Depts & Ada

County Assessor

• Local Government Costs (spending): U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census

of Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)

• Economic Impacts: NAHB, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census of

Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)

• Jobs: Idaho Dept. of Labor & Idaho Dept. of Commerce

local housing market economic impact report ada...

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