local workforce profile south east...
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WORKABILITY QLD LOCAL WORKFORCE PROFILE IPSWICH, LOCKYER, SCENIC
RIM AND SOMERSET NDIS
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 2
This Local Workforce Profile has been developed by WorkAbility Qld for the South East Queensland NDIS regions. Should you require any clarification of the information contained in this document please email [email protected].
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 3
PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT This report discusses the population profile of the South East Queensland NDIS regions. Due to the geographical and population size of the area it has been divided into 5 sub regions according to Local Government Authorities as described below:
Sunshine Coast o Gympie o Noosa o Sunshine Coast
Moreton Bay o Moreton Bay
Brisbane o Brisbane
Logan & Redlands o Logan o Redland
Gold Coast & Hinterland o Gold Coast
Discussion is aimed at evaluating the demand for and potential supply of workers for the NDIS rollout in the region, and to highlight any areas of opportunity or risk for delivery of services to participants.
In most cases the profile will discuss the picture of the overall population of this NDIS region. In the Appendix, you can find comparisons of results of key metrics for each of the LGAs in the sub regions to highlight any particular regional variations.
This report contains statistical data (STAC and DELTA) in relation to Vocational Education and Training (VET) student enrolments. Permission to publish and distribute to external parties requires permission from the Department of Education and Training.
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY These NDIS regions contain the bulk of the population of Queensland, and therefore most participants and workforce in the state. The population on the Sunshine Coast is slightly older, which may impact disability worker supply if more of the workforce in the area is attracted to aged care services. Allied Health supply may be impacted by the declining number of registered physiotherapists in the regions, and no increase in university enrolments.
The region has a much higher population of women than men, which will make increasing the diversity of the disability workforce a challenge – however there is a significant culturally and linguistically diverse population which offers a great potential workforce stream. Also, there is a large number of unemployed people in the regions who could be an effective source of disability workers.
This region has one of the largest potential supply gaps seen in the NDIS rollouts which is of significant concern given the size of the population and number of participants. It will not be possible to just assume that because of the larger population there will be more disability workers, as the metropolitan nature of the regions also offers more alternative employment that may be more attractive to residents. Jobs promotion and sector public perception will be critical to success of any workforce plans.
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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CONTENTS SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND NDIS REGIONS POPULATION PROFILE ...................................... 7
The South East Queensland NDIS regions population is growing slowly ...................... 7
The age distribution of the South East Queensland NDIS regions varies creating different workforce opportunities in different areas ........................................................ 8
The diversity of the workforce may be impacted by the imbalance of women and men ........................................................................................................................................ 10
The indigenous population is relatively low in the region ............................................. 10
The culturally and linguistically diverse population is a significant source of potential workers ................................................................................................................. 11
WHO WORKS IN THE DISABILITY SECTOR? ............................................................................. 12 Workload variations in Allied Health ................................................................................. 14
WORKFORCE DEMAND ........................................................................................................... 16 HOW CAN WE SUPPLY THE WORKFORCE? ........................................................................... 17
Part time workforce utilisation ........................................................................................... 17
Casual workers ..................................................................................................................... 18
Unemployed people ........................................................................................................... 18
GRADUATES IN DISABILITY AND ALLIED HEALTH RELATED QUALIFICATIONS ................... 19 Disability ................................................................................................................................. 20
Allied Health ......................................................................................................................... 21
Mental Health ....................................................................................................................... 22
HIGHER EDUCATION QUALIFICATIONS ................................................................................. 23 IS THIS ENOUGH TO MEET PROJECTED DEMAND? .............................................................. 26 Data Notes ............................................................................................................................... 27
ABS Census Data ................................................................................................................. 27
STAC Training Data .............................................................................................................. 27
Health Workforce Data ....................................................................................................... 27
DATA REGIONS AND MAPS .................................................................................................... 28 Department of Education and Training Regions ........................................................... 29
APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................. 30 Sub Region results on individual measures ......................................................................... 30 Sunshine Coast results on individual measures .................................................................. 33 Moreton Bay results on individual measures ....................................................................... 36 Brisbane results on individual measures ............................................................................... 39 Logan & Redlands results on individual measures ............................................................. 42 Gold Coast & Hinterland results on individual measures .................................................. 46
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 7
SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND NDIS REGIONS POPULATION PROFILE
The South East Queensland NDIS regions population is growing slowly As at 30 June 2016, the estimated resident population of the South East Queensland NDIS regions was 2,958,651 people, which equals 63% of the Queensland population. The estimated population of the South East Queensland NDIS regions has grown by nearly 550,000 people since 2010 and the average annual population growth in the region is 2.0% which is slightly higher than that of Queensland overall (1.7%).
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, Extracted on 4 July 2017
Most the population in this NDIS region are in the Brisbane LGA (38%), with the smallest population being on the Sunshine Coast – however, the Sunshine Coast has one of the highest rates of population growth alongside Moreton Bay and Gold Coast. Brisbane and Logan & Redlands are growing below the rate of the
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
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Moreton Bay
Logan & Redlands
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Brisbane
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Queensland Brisbane South EastQLD region
SunshineCoast
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South East Queensland NDIS Regions estimated population
South East Queensland NDIS Regions Average Annual Population Growth Rate 2011 – 2016p
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 8
region overall, and at a similar rate to Queensland. One of the most significant challenges in understanding the workforce and potential implications for the NDIS rollout in this region is the geographical and population size, and the unknown element of workforce mobility. Whilst we can assume that the largest number of participants will be in Brisbane due to the population size there, the workforce to provide services could potentially be traveling from the Gold Coast, Logan, or Moreton Bay sub regions. Likewise, they could be solely sourced from the Brisbane region itself.
The age distribution of the South East Queensland NDIS regions varies creating different workforce opportunities in different areas
The population distribution of the SEQ NDIS Regions almost perfectly matches that of Queensland overall, which is to be expected since that population comprises most the Queensland population. 15% of the population is over 65 and approaching retirement eligibility, the same rate as found in Queensland overall. With an ageing population it may be a challenge to find a disability workforce, given the significant skill overlap with the aged care workforce. Alternatively, this could present a good opportunity to leverage the skill overlap by having a workforce competent to work across both sectors.
Within the sub regions there is more variation in age profile, and the individual graphs are presented for discussion below, with comparison to the SEQ level pattern.
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Sunshine Coast SEQ
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Moreton Bay SEQ
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 9
Source: ABS 3235.0, Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2014
The major variation from the overall South East Queensland profile is in the Sunshine Coast which trends older, and Brisbane and Logan & Redlands which trend a little younger. The issue of finding a disability workforce in areas with an ageing population are likely to be compounded in the Sunshine Coast given the higher population of retirement aged people there – personal support work can be very physically demanding and an older workforce is less likely to be willing or able to take that on. The younger profile of Brisbane and Logan & Redlands could be a good opportunity to increase the age diversity of the disability workforce with some targeted marketing at those age groups. This may also have an effect in neighbouring regions as these workers may be willing to travel for work.
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Gold Coast & Hinterland SEQ
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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The diversity of the workforce may be impacted by the imbalance of women and men
There is a noticeable difference in the gender split in the South East Queensland NDIS regions, with over 16,000 more women than men. This is unusual, as typically the gender split is around 50/50.
Source: ABS 32 35.0, Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2014
The disparity in the gender profile of the region is even more apparent when broken down by age – there are more males under 15, but from 25 there are more women. This pattern is observed in all the sub regions except Brisbane, which has a more equitable distribution. This could have a serious impact on the aim of increasing the diversity of the disability workforce, which is an expressed goal by most participants and service providers.
The indigenous population is relatively low in the region
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Indigenous Profile - I02 (usual residence)
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SEQ NDIS Regions age distribution by gender
Percentage of population identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 11
Around 60,000 people in the South East Queensland NDIS regions identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. The region has a similar proportion to Queensland overall, except Moreton Bay and Logan & Redlands which have 3% and 2.9% of the population identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander respectively.
Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people have been identified as key NDIS workforce target populations, however the population is relatively low in this region, particularly in Gold Coast & Hinterland and Brisbane. Some specific job marketing to this cohort in Moreton Bay and Logan & Redlands may be worth exploring, particularly considering that Logan & Redlands has the second largest population of the sub regions.
The culturally and linguistically diverse population is a significant source of potential workers
At the time of the 2016 Census, the South East Queensland NDIS regions had 777,180 persons who stated they were born overseas (26.3% of the South East Queensland regions population). Comparatively, in Queensland overall 21.6% of the population were born overseas. Of the overseas born population of Bundaberg and Wide Bay Burnett region, 50,403 (6.5%) state that they cannot speak English at all, or not well.
People from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds have been identified as key NDIS workforce target populations, and the South East Queensland NDIS regions have a significant population of people born overseas. In fact, only 2 of the sub regions (Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast) are below the overall Queensland rate of 21.6%. This represents a significant opportunity to design marketing and job attraction strategies to this cohort to increase the diversity of the workforce and match the ethnic makeup of the region.
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Sunshine Coast
Moreton Bay
Queensland
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Gold Coast & Hinterland
Brisbane
Percentage of population born overseas
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 12
WHO WORKS IN THE DISABILITY SECTOR? For the purpose of this profile and identifying key disability occupations at the LGA level for the South East Queensland NDIS regions, core community service occupations have been identified at the ANZCO 4 Digit Level using ABS 2011 occupation data. These core occupations give a preliminary scope of the community services workforce most likely to comprise future employment growth because of the NDIS. The core occupations are:
Aged and Disabled carers Occupational therapists Physiotherapists Speech professionals and audiologists
This covers the allied health occupations, and the only other occupational group that can be clearly identified as relating to disability. It is important to note that it is not known what proportion of people in these occupations actually works within disability, or across other sectors, so these numbers should be considered indicative only.
Data Source: 2016 Census of Population and Housing People identifying in the 2016 Census as aged and disabled carers are the largest of the disability related occupations, by a massive margin – with around 4 times as many workers as the next largest occupation (physiotherapy).
The Queensland Market Position Statement indicates that there are currently 7,950-9,650 FTE in the South East Queensland NDIS regions workforce; 11,671 people identified in the chosen occupations in the census, which may give us a general rule of thumb that around 68-83% of the Census identified workers are actually involved in disability work. This is unsurprising given the age profile of the population, but could indicate a risk for supplying sufficient disability workers if there are fewer aged carers to cross skill into disability work.
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Speech Professionals and Audiologists
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
Aged and Disabled Carers
Workers in Disability Related Occupations – South East Queensland NDIS Regions
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 13
Across all the sub regions Aged and Disabled Carers are the largest occupation, but there is some variation in physiotherapist numbers – Brisbane and Gold Coast & Hinterland have the bulk of physiotherapist numbers. You would expect that Brisbane would have a significant number given the population, but it may be worthwhile to investigate the mobility of the physiotherapist population to see whether they can service nearby areas also.
Speech professionals are the smallest cohort, which will need to be compared to forecasted demand to determine whether this may have a detrimental impact for service provision to people with a disability in the region.
Sunshine Coast Moreton Bay
Brisbane
Logan & Redlands
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WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 14
Workload variations in Allied Health As a rough indication of the demand placed on workers in the disability related occupations the following graph will show the number of workers in disability related occupations, per 100,000 population.
Data Source: 2016 Census of Population and Housing
There are fewer Aged and Disabled carers per 100,000 population compared to Queensland overall, likely because the most populous areas in South East Queensland are slightly younger in demographic, so there are fewer aged care requirements. It is likely therefore that most of these workers are in disability rather than aged care, which means that cross skilling aged care workers may not be feasible as a workforce supply strategy.
The graphs below show the sub regions compared to the South East Queensland rate. As expected due to the age profile of the region, Sunshine Coast has more aged and disabled carers than the SEQ rate overall. Moreton Bay and Logan & Redlands are relatively under supplied with allied health professionals, which could present a real risk in providing disability services in those areas.
Sunshine Coast Moreton bay
- 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Speech Professionals and Audiologists
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
Aged and Disabled Carers
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Speech Professionalsand Audiologists
OccupationalTherapists
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- 100 200 300
Speech Professionalsand Audiologists
OccupationalTherapists
Physiotherapists
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Workers per 100,000 Population – SEQ NDIS regions compared to Queensland
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 15
Brisbane Logan & Redlands
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Obviously not everyone in the region will require the services of a worker in one of these occupations, but this gives a picture of the differential demand placed on workers in disability related occupations in the South East Queensland NDIS regions compared with the Queensland average pattern.
- 100 200 300 400
Speech Professionalsand Audiologists
OccupationalTherapists
Physiotherapists
Aged and DisabledCarers
- 100 200 300
Speech Professionalsand Audiologists
OccupationalTherapists
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Speech Professionalsand Audiologists
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WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 16
WORKFORCE DEMAND According to the NDIS Market Position Statement – Queensland, participant numbers will grow to 50,200 by 2019 in the South East Queensland NDIS regions. Obviously, this will mean an increase in the workforce needed to support them. The Statement also indicates that these sub regions will have the highest concentration of participants per 100km2 which means that attraction and retention strategies don’t need to focus on willingness to travel, but could also impact supply if the workforce is unwilling to travel at all.
NDIA have provided workforce projections which will be used in this report. They have provided a low and high full time equivalent (FTE) workforce projection for the region, and the additional workforce numbers required has been proportionally assigned to the LGAs in the area in the following table. A calculation has also been done to show what the total growth in number of workers would be if the current average hours per week of 25.1(as reported by Workforce Wizard users) remains.
NDIA Low Projection NDIA High Projection FTE 25.1 hrs/week FTE 25.1 hrs/week
Gympie 324 490 417 631 Noosa 181 274 233 353 Sunshine Coast 894 1,353 1,150 1,741 Sunshine Coast 1,400 2,120 1,800 2,725 Moreton Bay 1,650 2,498 2,100 3,179 Brisbane North 720 1,090 890 1,347 Brisbane South 980 1,484 1,210 1,832 Brisbane 1,700 2,574 2,100 3,179 Logan 1,508 2,283 1,831 2,772 Redland 592 896 719 1,089 Logan & Redlands 2,100 3,179 2,550 3,861 Gold Coast & Hinterland 1,700 2,574 2,050 3,104 Whole Region 8,550 12,944 10,600 16,048
This could mean that at the highest projection rates, over 16,000 new workers need to be found for the NDIS in the South East Queensland NDIS regions. This is a significant workforce demand, requiring significant attraction, retention and capability development work to be undertaken to meet the targets of regional Workforce Plans.
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 17
HOW CAN WE SUPPLY THE WORKFORCE?
Part time workforce utilisation
Data Source: 2016 Census of Population and Housing
In 2016 there were 6,331-part time workers in the South East Queensland NDIS regions in the selected occupations, of whom the majority are Aged and Disabled Carers (5037). Other NDIS sites have explored the idea that some of the increase in FTE could be absorbed by extending the hours of existing part time support workers. According to Workforce Wizard data, the South East Queensland care workforce averages 25.1 hours per week – as a basic calculation, assuming an average 38 hour full time work week, that means there may be an extra 1,710 FTE available within the part time Aged and Disabled Carer workforce in the South East Queensland NDIS regions1 - which would not be able to meet even the lowest workforce demand projection made by the NDIA (8,550 FTE).
Workforce Wizard data also states that 74% of the South East Queensland workforce are female, and 48% are over 45 years – traditionally females are more likely to seek part time work and it may therefore be difficult to engage this group in extending their work hours. Also, the work can be physically demanding, so an older workforce may be particularly reluctant to take on the burden of extra work. It may also be challenging to extend the hours of the older age groups who may be in transition to retirement. This also assumes that every part time aged and disabled carer is working within disability, which is unlikely to be the case. Demand for disability support is highest at certain times of day and it is likely this pattern will remain under NDIS. This means that the extra hours of support may be in demand at peak times when current workers are already fully deployed.
Even though current part-time workers can help to fill the gap where there are opportunities to extend working hours, they would not meet more than 20% of the expected demand.
1 Calculated as: 12.9 hours per week unused time x 5,037 part time workers = 64,997 extra hours. 13,366 / 38 hours per week = 1,710 Full Time Equivalents.
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Speech Professionals and Audiologists
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
Aged and Disabled Carers
Part time workers in disability related occupations – South East Queensland NDIS regions
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 18
Casual workers Workforce Wizard data states that most of the South East Queensland workforce are casual (34%). This may be reflective of provider caution to recruit until service demand is known, and using casual employees to fill employment gaps. Again, it is risky to assume that these casual employees will want to transition to full time work, or have the appropriate skill sets to fill the roles required.
For both casual and part time workers, there may be cross employment, meaning that one worker could potentially appear (for example) as a part time worker in 2 organisations, and a casual worker in a third. This would artificially inflate the employment numbers within the sector, and could also give a false view of part time/full time/casual employment.
Unemployed people As at March 2017 there were 89,336 unemployed people in the South East Queensland NDIS regions – with an overall unemployment rate of 5.5%. Given that training and qualifications have been reported as not being as important to recruitment as the correct attitudes, aptitudes and values, this cohort could be a valuable target group for recruitment.
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 19
GRADUATES IN DISABILITY AND ALLIED HEALTH RELATED QUALIFICATIONS2 Anecdotally we know that training and qualifications are only a part of the match of an employee to the disability sector. Due to the significant interpersonal nature of the work some organisations may be more likely to seek certain aptitudes, attributes, attitudes, values and capabilities in new entrants than formal qualifications.
The LGAs in the South East Queensland NDIS regions sit in the South East, Metropolitan and North Coast Department of Education and Training (DET) regions.
In 2014/15 there were 2,771 enrolments into disability related qualifications in the South East, Metropolitan and North Coast DET regions. 32% of these were into Certificate III in Disability higher than the proportion overall in Queensland. Given the forecast growth in disability related occupations in the region may be as high as 16,048 new workers, this level of training supply will not be sufficient to meet the demand for new NDIS workers.
Certificate III in disability has now been superseded by Certificate III in Individual Support, which is already being delivered in some areas of Queensland. There are proportionally more enrolments for Cert III in disability and Cert IV in mental health, which may reflect more interest in pursuing careers in disability in these regions. It will be important to cross reference against individual support enrolments to analyse whether this interest is carrying over to the new qualification.
2 Data for 2015/16 has not been published yet
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CERTIFICATE IV IN ALLIED HEALTH ASSISTANCE
DIPLOMA OF DISABILITY
CERTIFICATE III IN ALLIED HEALTH ASSISTANCE
CERTIFICATE IV IN DISABILITY
CERTIFICATE IV IN MENTAL HEALTH
CERTIFICATE III IN DISABILITY
VET Enrolments in North Coast DET region compared with Queensland – 2014/15
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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Disability Certificates in Disability At Certificate III level, this qualification addresses work in the community and/or residential facilities under direct or regular supervision within clearly defined organisation guidelines and service plans. At Certificate IV level, this qualification addresses work in residential group homes, training resource centres, day respite centres and open employment services, other community settings and clients' homes.
These are the core qualifications for disability support roles. Enrolments for both have increased over time in South East, and Metropolitan areas but decreased in North Coast. When numbers for the Certificate III Individual Support are published, it will be
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VET Enrolments – Certificate III in Disability by DET Regions
VET Enrolments – Certificate IV in Disability by DET Regions
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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necessary to check that enrolments can match demand, and that enrolments in North Coast won’t impact the supply of potential disability workers.
Allied Health Allied Health Assisting qualifications cover workers who provide assistance to allied health professionals, including therapeutic and program related support. This work must be under the guidance of an allied health professional; however, supervision may be direct, indirect or remote, and must occur within organisational requirements. The worker is required to identify client circumstances that need additional input from the allied health professional.
020406080
100120140160180
South East Metropolitan North Coast DarlingDowns South
West
CentralQueensland
NorthQueensland
Far NorthQueensland
2013 - 2014 2014 - 2015
VET Enrolments – Certificate IV in Allied Health Assistance by DET Regions
VET Enrolments – Certificate III in Allied Health Assistance by DET Regions
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South East Metropolitan North Coast DarlingDowns South
West
CentralQueensland
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2013 - 2014 2014 - 2015
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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Allied Health Assistants are more common in aged care and hospital settings, although the increased demand for Allied Health services predicted under the NDIS may create the demand for these roles in the Disability sector. Enrolments in these courses in the area are significantly decreasing. The lack of assistant staff could impact the ability of Allied Health Professionals to meet the increased demand for services. Consideration could be given to developing these graduates as potential employees in future roles that arise in the disability workforce.
Mental Health This qualification covers workers who provide a range of community services focusing on: • Rehabilitation and support for people affected by mental illness and psychiatric
disability • Implementing community based activities focusing on mental health, mental illness
and psychiatric disability, and • Mental health promotion work.
Work may focus on engaging people with mental illness in community participation, prevention of relapse and promotion of recovery through programs such as residential rehabilitation, work in clinical settings, home based outreach and centre-based programs delivered by community based non-government organisations. This work may also involve supported employment and programmed respite care.
Enrolment numbers have more than doubled in the region over this time period – this suggests that supply for mental health workers could be sufficient, but more work will need to be done in identifying the demand for newly qualified mental health workers to see if this supply can provide the workers needed within this area. Peer workers and workers with lived experience is an emerging area of focus within mental health services, which may be a concurrent source of workforce supply to be explored. There may also be some cross-sector demand for workers in mental health from Domestic Violence or Alcohol and Other Drugs services for example.
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South East Metropolitan North Coast DarlingDowns South
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CentralQueensland
NorthQueensland
Far NorthQueensland
2013 - 2014 2014 - 2015
VET Enrolments – Certificate IV in Mental Health by DET Regions
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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HIGHER EDUCATION QUALIFICATIONS Allied health enrolments are healthy at the universities in the area, and increasing which means that there is likely to be a good supply of allied health professionals to do disability work. There is also a decent cohort of students that can have disability jobs advertised to them to ensure consideration upon graduation.
Occupational Therapy Enrolments by University in Queensland
Speech Pathology Enrolments by University in Queensland
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 24
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Number of registered Occupational Therapists by practice setting in the South East Queensland NDIS Regions
Physiotherapy Enrolments by University in Queensland
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
Across both hospital and non-hospital settings Occupational Therapist numbers are increasing, whereas physiotherapist numbers are decreasing. This may need to be considered in workforce plans for the region if the trends continue, and in individual planning if there are going to be fewer physiotherapists available. It may also be worth investigating the reasons behind these trends to design strategies to mitigate against further number decline.
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Number of registered Physiotherapists by practice setting in the South East Queensland NDIS Regions
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
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IS THIS ENOUGH TO MEET PROJECTED DEMAND? Workforce projections from NDIA put the minimum number of people who need to be newly recruited into disability services in the South East Queensland NDIS regions at 8,850, and by calculating the FTE from current average weekly hours, the maximum could be around 16,000. The report above has discussed some potential sources of new workers in the area.
If it were possible to leverage the underutilised part time workforce, and if all currently VET enrolled students chose to stay within the South East Queensland NDIS region and work in disability services, this would only meet around half of the minimum demand projection.
These are huge ‘ifs’, and this is a highly unlikely scenario. Strategies that focus on extending working hours, and retention of current students will go some way to closing the demand/supply gap, but there will need to be a significant focus on recruitment – with the caveat that this cannot disadvantage the NDIS rollout across the state (i.e. aiming to recruit from other geographical areas just displaces the problem rather than solves it).
For further discussion of strategies and activities being developed and rolled out in the region, please see the South East Queensland NDIS regions Workforce Plan.
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4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Current VetEnrolled students
Extending currentPart Time Hours
MinimumWorkforceProjection
MaximumWorkforceProjection
Demand and Supply Projections
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 27
Data Notes
ABS Census Data The most recent Census of Population and Housing was conducted on 9 August 2016. The previous Census of Population and Housing, 2011 has also been used, as some categories in the 2016 Census have not been released yet.
STAC Training Data STAC Data
Some students will have not given adequate address details to map them to a DET Region,
Students with overseas or residential addresses outside of Qld do not map to a DET Region, these students will be mapped to Unknown/Interstate.
Health Workforce Data The most recent health professional registrations reported is 2015.
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 28
DATA REGIONS AND MAPS
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 29
Department of Education and Training Regions
Source: http://education.qld.gov.au/hr/recruitment/teaching/locations.html
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 30
APPENDIX In this section we provide a sub region breakdown of individual measures used in the formation of this profile, and where possible an LGA level comparison for those sub regions which are divided into more than one LGA (Sunshine Coast and Logan & Redlands). There is also an infographic for each sub region with comparison to the SEQ NDIS regions.
Sub Region results on individual measures
Source: ABS 3218.0, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15
0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Sunshine Coast
Moreton Bay
Logan & Redlands
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Brisbane
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Brisbane Gold Coast &Hinterland
Logan andRedlands
Moreton Bay Sunshine Coast
2006 2011 2016p
Estimated resident population 2016
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 31
Source: ABS 3235.0, Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2014
Source: ABS 3235.0, Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia unpublished data and Queensland Treasury estimates
Percentage of population identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, Indigenous Profile - I02 (usual residence)
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.9
3.0
0 1 1 2 2 3 3
Brisbane
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Queensland
SEQ
Sunshine Coast
Logan & Redlands
Moreton Bay
Median Age
Percentage of population born overseas
Percentage of population over 65 years of age
35
36
37
37
38
38
43
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Brisbane
Logan & Redlands
Queensland
SEQ
Moreton Bay
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Sunshine Coast
12.5%
13.9%
15.0%
15.3%
15.6%
16.4%
21.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Brisbane
Logan & Redlands
SEQ
Qld
Moreton Bay
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Sunshine Coast
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 32
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Basic Community Profile - B09 (usual residence)
18.7
19.6
21.6
25.8
26.3
28.3
30.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Sunshine Coast
Moreton Bay
Queensland
Logan & Redlands
SEQ
Gold Coast & Hinterland
Brisbane
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 33
Sunshine Coast results on individual measures
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Sunshine Coast SEQ
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0-4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85 a
nd o
ver
Male Female
Age distribution
Age distribution by gender
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 34
Percentage of population identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, Indigenous Profile - I02 (usual residence)
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Basic Community Profile - B09 (usual residence)
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
1.5
1.9
3.6
0 1 2 3 4
Noosa
Sunshine Coast
Gympie
10.8
19.6
21.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
Gympie
Sunshine Coast
Noosa
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
Percentage of population born overseas
Number of Professional Registrations by practice setting
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 35
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 36
Moreton Bay results on individual measures
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Moreton Bay SEQ
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0-4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85 a
nd o
ver
Male Female
Age distribution
Age distribution by gender
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August 2017 37
Occupational Therapists Physiotherapists
Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
0
50
100
150
200
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
Number of Professional Registrations by practice setting
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 38
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 39
Brisbane results on individual measures
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Brisbane SEQ
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0-4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85 a
nd o
ver
Male Female
Age distribution
Age distribution by gender
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August 2017 40
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
0200400600800
100012001400
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
Number of Professional Registrations by practice setting
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 41
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 42
Logan & Redlands results on individual measures
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Logan & Redlands SEQ
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0-4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85 a
nd o
ver
Male Female
Age distribution
Age distribution by gender
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 43
Percentage of population identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, Indigenous Profile - I02 (usual residence)
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Basic Community Profile - B09 (usual residence)
3.2
2.3
0 1 2 3 4
Logan
Redland
27.3
22.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Logan
Redland
Percentage of population born overseas
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 44
Occupational Therapists Physiotherapists
Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
0
50
100
150
200
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
Number of Professional Registrations by practice setting
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 45
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 46
Gold Coast & Hinterland results on individual measures
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
Source: 3235.0 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Gold Coast & Hinterland SEQ
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0-4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85 a
nd o
ver
Male Female
Age distribution
Age distribution by gender
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 47
Occupational Therapists Physiotherapists
Source: Health Workforce Australia, Health Workforce Data, http://data.hwa.gov.au/webapi
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Hospital Non Hospital
2013 2014 2015
Number of Professional Registrations by practice setting
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 48
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 49
WorkAbility Qld – South East Queensland NDIS Regions Workforce Profile
August 2017 50
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