Location, Location, Location:Finding and Mitigating Wildfire Risk

in a Wildland-Urban Sea

Dr. Joseph White, Department of BiologyBaylor University

Waco, Texas

Semantics: Hazard vs. Risk • Hazard– Any real or potential condition that can cause injury• Fuels

• Risk– The potential for loss to occur given the realization of

a hazard– Risk = Hazard × Exposure

• Exposure is the probability of the fruition of a hazardous situation• Loss includes houses AND habitat!

Hazard = Fuels

Austin, TX

Western Austin, TX

Fuel map derived from spectral partitioning of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data

GIS Data

Terrain

Vegetation Type

CanopyCharacteristics

Crown Bulk Density (CBD) Mapping

LiDaR

FLAMMAP: Burn Probabilities= Exposure• Predicts long-term fire potential

utilizing randomized ignition points for iterative prediction of burned areas

• “The burn probability for a given pixel is an estimate of the likelihood that a pixel will burn given a random ignition within the study area and … is not an estimate of the future likelihood of a wildfire…” Ager et al. 2007

• Dry, hot, south winds• 500,000 random fires• Fire size varies

Simulate!

Risk Realized

Communities at Risk Mapped

Risk Reduction• FLAMMAP simulation shows

– Risk CBD

– R0 = risk at time 0– R1 = risk at time 1– β = Coefficient ranging from 0.4 to 1.7

depending on house type

“Urban forests are economic goods. When income increases the demand [for urban forests] will rise as well.”P. Zhu and Y. Zhang. 2008. Landscape and Urban Planning 84:293-300.

Acknowledgements• Research supported provided by U.S. Fish and Wildlife

– Carl Schwope, Deborah Holle, Carl Sexton• Research supported provided by City of Austin

– William Conrad, Glen Gillman, Lisa, O’Donnell, Scott Rowin• Bowman Environmental

– Bill Gabler, Deborah Blackburn, Cliff Ladd• Center for Spatial Research @ Baylor

– Jonathan Cook, Patricia Spiller, Bruce Byars• Spatial Ecology Lab @ Baylor