lokakarya bappenas-giz sutip

RPJMN 2015-2019

Setting Urban Transport

in the Mainstream

Prof. Suyono Dikun, PhD Lokakarya Transportasi Perkotaan Dalam RPJMN

Bappenas-GIZ, Jakarta, 29 January 2015

Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019

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258

268

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288

298

308

When population soars it is the time

transport becomes a part of the solution

Indonesia Population Milestone

Year Population

2010 238.5 mil.

2015 255.5 mil.

2020 271.1 mil.

2025 284.8 mil.

2030 296.4 mil.

2035 305.6 mil.

Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035 (mil.) Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, Oct. 2013

Indonesia population keeps increasing from time to time

This will bring great and complex consequences on transport system.

Intercities, interislands, interregions even intraregion economic movements will create huge burdens on the existing transport system networks

Generated new demand resulted from economic growth can no longer be served by the system.

Clearly send the signal of emergency of Indonesia transport

Population could have reached 350 million in 2045. No big deal. It is not the problem of population. It is the problem of governments in the past of not being able to disperse the population out of Jawa. Indonesia still have vast land areas. On national scale, urbanization rate will reach 66,6% in the average of the total population in 2035. This is mainly because our rural economy keeps declining and rural transport is not well developed. This means more than 200 million people will live in urban and urbanized areas 20 years from now. What is the future of our rural areas and cities? .


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Population imbalances. With only 6% of total land

area, Jawa will still be the home of 55% of total

population (159 mil. in 2025)

Distribution of Population by Regions 2010-2035 (mil.) Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013

Population imbalance is persistent. Indonesia population in the next 20-30 years would still be concentrated in Jawa. It goes almost unnoticed that the carrying capacity of Jawa in supporting good quality lifes of its population has been declining from time to time. The fertile land had been converted to non-agriculture land, some of them become unproductive critical land generating erosion, landslide, and flood to the rest of the area, destructing watershed, and endangering food sustainability. Jawa is also vulnerable to the shortage of natural and mineral resources, big flood, drought, and the declining of raw water deposit.

50,9 55,3 59,4 62,9 66 69

137 145 153 159 164 168

13,214,1

15,115,9 16,8 17,5

13,915,4

16,818,1

19,3 20,4

17,518,7

2021,1

2222,7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Papua

Maluku

Sulawesi

Kalimantan

Bali dan NusaTenggaraJawa

Sumatera

BANDUNG

Jawa Barat

JAKARTA

SERANG

SURABAYA

SEMARANG

DKI

Banten

Jawa TengahJawa Timur

YOGYAKARTADIY

Merak

Bogor

Sukabumi

Cikampek

PadalarangCirebon

Banjar

Kroya

Tegal

Purwokerto

Pekalongan

Solo

Madiun Kertosono

Blitar

Malang

Bangil

Sidoarjo

Bojonegoro

Jember

Banyuwangi

Bojonegoro

Gambringan

Bojonegoro

Gundih

Prupuk

Kutoarjo

BANDUNG

Jawa Barat

JAKARTA

SERANG

SURABAYA

SEMARANG

DKI

Banten

Jawa TengahJawa Timur

YOGYAKARTADIY

Merak

Bogor

Sukabumi

Cikampek

PadalarangCirebon

Banjar

Kroya

Tegal

Purwokerto

Pekalongan

Solo

Madiun Kertosono

Blitar

Malang

Bangil

Sidoarjo

Bojonegoro

Jember

Banyuwangi

Bojonegoro

Gambringan

Bojonegoro

Gundih

Prupuk

Kutoarjo

2010 137

millions

2015 145

millions

2020 153

millions

2025 159

millions

2030 164

millions

2035 168

millions

Projection of Jawa Population 2010-2035

Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013


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What forces triggered the massive movement of people from rural to urban areas? The answers are obvious. First, is the marginalization of rural economy where agriculture, the biggest sector absorbing workforce so far, has consistently declined, forcing farmers and peasants to sell their agricultural land and gradually turning them into landless sporadic workers. When they have spent up their money for consumption purposes and finally found that rural economy can no longer provide opportunity for them to survive, they invade urban areas as the last resort to earn money with whatever means they have. Rural transport, believed to be a factor triggering rural economy has been sidelined from the major transport undertakings.

Urbanization is masive, persistent, and its fundamental

problems remain unsolved

In 2025 Jawa population will reach 159 millions, out of which 74.6% will live in urban areas. This will bring a great burdens and complexity to transport system network in Jawa, now already in oversaturated and overburden stage. North Jawa corridor had never been and will always be in unstable condition due to overloading and other economic pressures. The current rail system is far from adequate to serve millions of passengers. Jawa is strong in its economic contribution to the national GDP but weak in its carrying capacity.


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Regional economic disparity is latent, out of the

mainstream, and nearly untouched

23,54%

58,86%

82,40%

17,60%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sumatera Jawa Bali KBI KTI

Distribution of GRDP Average in many years

Source: Regional Development in Numbers,

Bappenas, 2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sumatera Jawa Bali Kalimantan

Sulawesi Nusa Tenggara Maluku-Malut

Papua

Regional Growth

2007-2012 (%)

Source: Regonal

Development in

Numbers

Bappenas,

2012

Bappenas 2012 data illustrates the facts that economy in several regions grew above the national average of 6.3%. Thus there had been a great

anomaly in the national economy: the eastern Indonesia which is very rich in natural, mineral, and marine resources for many decades

contributes only 18% to the national economy. That a collection of regions that grows positively has no big share to the national GDP. Quick

analysis to address this latent disparity points at the lacks of transort infrastructure as one determinant leading to the anomaly. This tegional

disparity will most likely be sustain in the future unless government decides to change it by means of massive and rapid development of

transport and infrastructure in the regions. This is a political economy without being too technocratic with financial concerns. Regional balancing

must be done through the development of transport connectivity both in national and local levels, balancing of urban and rural development.


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National Transport Policy

Urban Transport has to be Revitalised

Revitalization of Urban

Transport

Audit & Stock Taking

Develop BRT and or MRT

Enhance the Roles of Urban

Roads

Urban Transport Industry

Transport System

Management

Integration of Transport

Institutions

While our world is now in the process of shrinking and reshaping due to the transport, information, and telecommunication technology; our big cities, paradoxically, are enlarging, and overcrowding, in such a way that even the same technology is not yet able to overcome time and distance barriers. Urban areas are powerful economic entities; urban economy contributes a large part of our GDP. But ironically, not only that people movements and living are increasingly difficult to undertake, Indonesia’s big and medium cities are now in the process of rapid decaying due mainly to massive urbanization and congestion that create urban poverty and inefficient, abusive, and rather primitive urban public transport systems. (sd060697). Indonesia is in urgent need to revitalize its urban transport.


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Source: Consultant estimate based on several planning documents already officials such as RIPNAS, RIPN, Blue Print Inland Waterways, Airport System, GIZ’s Urban Transport Study, and draft of RENSTRA.

Magnitude of transport investment needed for 2015-

2019 (IDR Trillions). Bottom-up, sector approach

Calculation on the real needs of investment to fulfill all the magnitudes covered by sector master plans, blue prints, other planning documents, and new initiatives come up with a higher figures. Investment needed for sea transport and ports development takes into account the consequences of establishing a maritime axis of the new government, including sea tollway, and rural transport.


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With narrow fiscal space in the APBN,

there is a need for an innovative financing

INNOVATIVE/CREATIVE

FINANCING

APBN On-Budget

APBN 2,5% to 5% PDB

PDF/ VGF

PMN

Hibah

Obligasi /SUN Infra-

struktur

Obligasi /Sukuk Infra-

struktur

Performance Based

Annuity Scheme

PBAS

Available Direct

Payment

Availale Indirect

Payment

BUMN Infra-

struktur

Obligasi Syariah/

Sukuk

Domestic Capital Market

Off-Budget

Per- bankan

Bank Infra-

struktur

Asset Backed

Securities

Dana Pensiun

Dana Asuransi

Pasar Modal Reksa-dana

Off-Budget Private Financing

KPS/ PPP

Conven-tional KPS

Aliansi Strategis

KPS

SMI/IIGF /PIP

Swasta Murni/

PFI

Unsolicited Fasilitas Khusus

Innovative financing is imperative to fill the large gap not covered by government invetsment and other public sector expenditures.This innovative financing could be derived from both state budget (APBN, on-budget) and off-budget.


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We are now in the era of automobile & motorcycle blight –

demand for urban roads are endless

Urban

Toll

Roads

Mass

Rapid

Transit

The dialogue started with a

statement, saying that the

problem of urban congestion

has become so great that many

communities are coming to the

conclusion that there could

never be sufficient highway and

parking capacity to permit the

movement of all people in

private cars. The opinion was

frequently expressed that cities

were suffering from "automoble

blight"; that if the automobile

were banned from downtown

areas and satisfactory mass

transportation provided instead,

congestion would be relieved

and greater freedom of

movement would assure

economic survival for the city


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Preserve mass transportation

or stagnate

The argument went on

by urging that the cities

just cannot resign

themselves to

automobiles and let

mass transportation

slide to ruin and

extinction. They must

preserve mass

transportation or

stagnate. Downtown is

doomed to die unless

cities stress movement

of people rather than

movement of vehicles.


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Motorized vehicles is the only relief

from congestion?

Road again?

Why not MRT?

while congestion originally

provided the excuse for the

subway, the subway has

now become the further

excuse for congestion. It

was further argued that the

automobile, far from being a

cause of urban congestion,

has in fact made possible a

necessary deconcentration

of population through the

decentralization of urban

living and working. It can be

argued that the only relief

from congestion has been

possible because of the

motorized vehicles.


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City is a tremendous reservoir of traffic.....

If mass transportation is not the answer, what of the possibilities of

modern highways to relieve the city of the congestion that inadequate

transportation once made necessary?

Critics insist that elaborate urban expressways are futile because of the

tremendous reservoir of traffic waiting to absorb any new street capacity.

Urban expressways and parking facilities not only will not solve the

problem of congestion but will actually make it worse.

Those who try to accommodate the private automobiles "is doomed to

inevitable failure; the better they do their job the greater will be their

failure".


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Neither urban expressways nor MRT

can solve the problems

?

?

Then come the balancing argument of

demand side management that

seemed convincing; “that neither

urban toll roads nor mass rapid

transportation nor any other

mechanical contrivance can solve the

problems of massive urban congestion.

As a solution of the traffic problem

these devices are pure deception.

Putting the emphasis on supplying

transportation facilities rather than

controlling the demand serves only to

aggravate congestion. As long as

nothing is done fundamentally to

rehabilitate the cities themselves, the

quicker will people forsake them and

the greater the problems for those left

behind to cope with


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Both urban tolls and MRT

are guilty

Guilty

Guilty

The balancing argument continued:

“We have the assurance, therefore,

that the problem of congestion in

urban areas has been precipitated by

the automobile;

that the automobile, on the contrary,

has been our escape from congestion;

that the automobile and mass

transportation are both guilty of

promoting congestion;

and finally that neither is the primary

culprit, but rather a host of other

factors that have resulted in the

successful attempt to crowd too many

people and too much economic activity

into too little space.


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Replanning and Rebuilding the Cities?

Replanning & rebuilding the City

Cities thus face the difficult task of

arriving at decisions that will

determine to a major degree their

physical and financial future.

Should they emphasize expressways

and parking facilities to accommodate

automobile use, or modernize mass

transport facilities in the hope of

restoring lost patronage and reducing

the number of vehicles entering the

city?

Or will solutions depend instead on

the extensive replanning and

rebuilding of the cities”?

lokakarya bappenas-giz sutip

Documents

indonesia transport

total population

problem of population

distribution of population

population imbalances

time transport

rural transport

urban transport