long island solar roadmapsolarroadmap.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cn-mtg-4_5-slides-21… · add...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Long Island Solar RoadmapConsortium Meeting 4.5January 21, 2020 Zoom: https://tnc.zoom.us/j/156364594
2
• Name• Affiliation
Introductions
3
Agenda10:00 Welcome & Introductions
10:15 Agenda & Today’s Purpose
10:25 Overview of Spatial Analysis Approach
10:40 Spatial Analysis Results
11:10 Discussion
11:40 Next Steps and Project Timeline
12:00 Adjourn
Purpose• Sharing the results of the spatial analysis:
• Preview of spatial analysis fact sheets
• Web tool still in development
4
• Long Island• County• Town
• Highlights
Discussion Questions
1) What is surprising?
2) Are there other ways we need to caveat or clarify these results?
3) What is a conclusion you draw from these results?
5
Spatial Analysis Methodology Refresher
6
1. Identified parcels for Nassau and Suffolk Counties that meet our suitability criteria for low-impact solar siting
2. Summarized available installation areas for solar on rooftops, parking lots, and ground
3. Calculated potential generation capacity by parcel
4. Identify parcels supporting mid- to large-scale solar generation (≥ 250 kW)
Suitability Analysis Inputs
7
Island-wide dataNY Natural Heritage Program Communities and Species
DEC freshwater and coastal wetlands, NHD hydrology
FEMA flood zones
EPA Brownfields and Superfund Sites
NY OPRHP, NYSHPO Cultural and historic areas
Microsoft National Dataset Building Footprints
Nassau County Suffolk County
Parcels 2018 Parcel Boundaries 2018 Parcel Boundaries
Land use 2018 Parcel Land Use 2016 Parcel Land use
Protected open spaceNassau County Public Open Spaces
Suffolk County Open Space Priorities Master List, Protected Farmlands, Pine Barrens Cores
Parking lots 1993 Nassau County Basemap Heads-up digitization
Capacity Calculations
8
Estimates of energy output (DC) per square foot for each type of installation.
Energy Produced (DC) High density (W/ft2) Medium density
(W/ft2) Low density (W/ft2)
Ground-Mount 8
Carport 7
Rooftop 8 7 6
Capacity Calculations
9
Area needed for each installation type
250 kW 500 kW 1 MWGround-mount and rooftop (high density)
31,250 ft2 0.7 ac 62,500 ft2 1.4 ac 125,000 ft2 2.9 ac
Carport (medium density) 35,714 ft2 0.8 ac 71,429 ft2 1.6 ac 142,857 ft2 3.3 ac
Rooftop (low density) 41,667 ft2 0.9 ac 83,334 ft2 1.9 ac 166,667 ft2 3.8 ac
1 acre (ac)
Ground-mount analysis
10
• We used supervised classification to identify suitable sites
• Targeting: vacant, undeveloped lots, unforested areas, reclaimed landfills, unused lawns, ag lands*
• May pick up: golf courses, ballfields, courtyards, transitional sites, active farmland
• **We are continuing to refine ground-mount results
11
Ground-mount analysis
Golf courses in Nassau County
12
Unused industrial park lawns
Mines and landfills
13
Caveats & Things to Keep in Mind• Spatial data = snapshot in time
• Numbers are ballpark estimates -- Results of this analysis are not a substitute for site level surveys
• Map indicates low-impact sites based on technical, landscape-scale data – does not represent where we think solar should go
Energy Mandates & Goals
14
Source & Year Goals Target date
CLCPA 2019 70% of electricity from renewable sources
2030
CLCPA 2019 100% of electricity from carbon-free sources
2040
CLCPA 2019 6,000 MW of utility-scale solar 2025
NYPSC 2018 3,000 MW of energy storage 2030
LIPA 2017 800 MW of renewable energy 2030
Energy and Solar on Long Island
15
1. 2016 capacity from LIPA 2017 Integrated Resources Plan2. PSEG LI Utility 2.0 Long Range Plan 2019 Update 3. Reflects impacts of energy saving programs and behind-the-meter generation
Generation 2018 NYISO DataLIPA’s Current Generation Capacity 5,204 MW1
Installed Front-of-the-Meter Solar 101 MW DC2
Installed Behind-the-Meter Solar 456 MW DC
Consumption 2018 NYISO DataLong Island Annual Consumption 21,326 GWh3
Long Island Peak Summer Demand 5,394 MW
16
• Electricity produced by 1 MW of solar = 1,226.4 MWh per year • Avg NY household electricity use = 7.2 MWh per year• 1 MW solar produces enough electricity to meet the annual
electricity use of ~ 170 homes.
Energy and Solar in New York
17
Spatial Analysis Results
• Long Island: 21,863 MW potential capacity• 14,830 MW ground-mount • 3,791 MW carport• 3,241 MW rooftop
• That’s more than 3x the NYS 6,000 MW solar goal
18
Nassau County
Total capacity:6,913.8 MW
3968.8 MW Ground1687.1 MW Carport1257.9 MW Rooftop
Potential installation area:20,618.6 ac
11,438.1 ac Ground5530.0 ac Parking lots
3627.4 ac Rooftops
58%24%
18%
19
Nassau CountyInstallation Size Distribution per Parcel
46%
29%
21%
2% 2% <1%0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
250-500kW
500 kW - 1MW
1-5 MW 5-10 MW 10-100MW
>100 MW
Num
ber o
f Ins
talla
tions
20
Nassau CountySize Distribution of Arrays
Carport61%
16%11%
8%1% 2% 0%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
48%
29%
15%8%
<1%<1% 0%
60%
25%
10%5%
<1% 0% 0%
Ground-mount Rooftop
Land Use Characteristics• Densely developed• Less available space for ground-mount
21
Nassau County
0%
32%
14%
25%
6%
48%
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Residential
Recreation & Public Lands
Other
Community/Public Services
Commercial/Industrial
Agricultural
Total County Acreage by Land Use
% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels
22
Suffolk County
Total capacity:14,949.8 MW
10,861.8 MW Ground2104.1 MW Carport1983.9 MW Rooftop
Potential installation area:40,942.7 ac
29,160.7 ac Ground6455.8 ac Parking lots
5326.2 ac Rooftops
73%14%
13%
23
Suffolk CountyInstallation Size Distribution per Parcel
45%
27%23%
3% 2% <1%0
500100015002000250030003500400045005000
250-500kW
500 kW - 1MW
1-5 MW 5-10 MW 10-100MW
>100 MW
Num
ber o
f Ins
talla
tions
24
Suffolk CountySize Distribution of Arrays
CarportGround-mount Rooftop68%
17%
9%6%
<1% <1% 0%
56%
25%
12%7%
<1%<1% 0%
39%
27%
16%14%
3% 2% <1%0
500100015002000250030003500400045005000
Suffolk County
• Agricultural land presents unique opportunities
25
4%
0%
5%
11%
18%
35%
29%
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Transportation
Residential
Rec and OS
Other*
Institutional
Commercial/Industrial
Agricultural
Total County Acreage by Land Use
% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels
Ground-mount (MW) Carport (MW) Rooftop (MW) Total (MW)
Non-protected Farmlands 3,977.7 4.8 39.1 4,021.6
Protected Farmlands 0 0.2 2.9 3.1
Total 3,977.7 5.0 42.0 4,024.7
26
4%
0%
5%
11%
18%
35%
29%
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Transportation
Residential
Rec and OS
Other*
Institutional
Commercial/Industrial
Agricultural
Total County Acreage by Land Use
Where will large-scale solar go?
0%
32%
14%
25%
6%
48%
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Residential
Recreation & Public Lands
Other
Community/Public Services
Commercial/Industrial
Agricultural
Total County Acreage by Land Use
Nassau County
Suffolk County
% indicates the share of County’s total land use that make up solar-suitable parcels
27
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Groundmount Parking Lot Rooftop (High Estimate)
Capa
city
(MW
)
Agricultural Recreation and Open Space
Commercial/Industrial Institutional
Transportation Other
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Groundmount Parking Lot Rooftop (High Estimate)
Capa
city
(MW
)
Community services Recreation and entertainment
Commercial/Industrial Other
Nassau County Suffolk County
Where can solar be sited?
Breakdown by Settings
28
Ground MW Carport MW Rooftop MW Total MW
Schools 120.8 (0.8%) 230.4 (1.5%) 309.3 (2.1%) 660.5
Public 1,034.7 (6.9%) 214.4 (1.4%) 108.5 (0.7%) 1,357.6
Private/Other 9,706.3 (64.9%) 1,659.3 (11.1%) 1,566.1 (10.5%) 12,931.7
Suffolk County:
Ground MW Carport MW Rooftop MW Total MW
Schools 181.4 (2.6%) 219.5 (3.2%) 246.3 (3.6%) 647.3
Public 916.2 (13.3%) 338.1 (4.9%) 99.9 (1.4%) 1,354.1
Private/Other 2,871.2 (41.5%) 1,129.6 (16.3%) 911.7 (13.2%) 4,912.4
Nassau County:
29
30
% Share of Total GenerationGround-mount
Carport
Rooftop
Town Results for Nassau County
31
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Glen Cove Hempstead Long Beach NorthHempstead
Oyster Bay
Pote
ntia
l Sol
ar C
apac
ity (M
W)
45.3
Town Results for Suffolk Co
32
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
Pote
ntia
l Sol
ar C
apac
ity (M
W)
Sample Town Factsheet
33
Sample Town Factsheet
34
Summary
Total Opportunity on Long Island• 21,863 MW Installed -> 3x NYS solar goal
If we only developed 25%• 5,466 MW Installed
35
Summary
Greatest Opportunities • County – Suffolk• Towns – Hempstead and Brookhaven• Installation Type – Ground-mounted (73% of total)• Settings – Recreational and entertainment (Nassau) and
Agricultural settings (Suffolk), dominated by ground-mounted
• Sizes – Majority of installations are 250-500 kW
36
Spatial Analysis Next Steps
• Clean-up of ground-mount data
• Add Overlays – zoning, Brownfields data
• Solar radiation analysis
• Request feedback on town fact sheets
• Web map deployment
37
Discussion Questions
1) What is surprising?
2) Are there other ways we need to caveat or clarify these results?
3) What is a conclusion you draw from these results?
38
Project Schedule
39
FEB 26 CONSORTIUM MEETING 5 – In PersonReview synthesis report & begin to develop strategies
FEB – MAY DRAFT FINAL REPORT & MAPS
JUNE RESULTS LAUNCHFinal meeting to rollout results to broad audience
40
Project ScheduleOctober – January Welcome
January Changes in Project Schedule
10:10 Vision, Goal, & Strategies
10:20 Map Tutorial
11:00 Solar and Agriculture in Economics Research Report
11:20 Timeline & Process for Drafting Synthesis Report
11:30 Adjourn
THANK YOU!
Mattias TongAugust SchultzMichael Evans