long-run impacts of early childhood poverty: evidence from norwegian registry data greg j. duncan...
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Long-Run Impacts of Early Childhood Poverty:
Evidence from Norwegian Registry Data
Greg J. DuncanKjetil Telle
Kathleen M. Ziol-GuestAriel Kalil
Research Questions
• What are the long-run impacts of low income during childhood, net of correlated family factors surrounding a child’s birth on adult achievement?
• Do these associations differ by the period of childhood income?
• How do these associations compare between Norway and the U.S.?
Background
Empirical studies suggest low-income children fare worse than higher income counterparts
Early childhood may be especially sensitive to environmental influences
Evidence of the specific role of income is limited to U.S. studies
Contributions
Add to literature on adult impacts of low income very early in life
Use longitudinal data with very high-quality measures of income throughout childhood
Compare evidence from similar birth cohorts in Norway and the U.S.
Norwegian-Specific FindingsIntergenerational earnings correlations lower
in Scandinavia than in Anglo-Saxon Europe and the US (Bjorklund & Jantti, 2000)
Nevertheless, social disadvantage matters Low income children more likely to become
low-income earners (Bratberg et al. 2008) Children of social assistance claimants
more likely to claim social assistance (Lorentzen & Nilsen 2008)
Low childhood SES associated with increased mortality for most causes of death during young adulthood (Strand & Kunst, 2007)
Specific role of early income not yet established
Norwegian Data and Sample(n=765,811)
Administrative register data compiled by Statistics Norway
All children born between 1968 and 1979
Adult outcomes measured between ages 24 and as late as age 37 for the earliest cohort
Income measured prenatal to age 15; controls measured around or before birth
Adjust standard errors for presence of siblings
U.S. Data and Sample(n=1,589)
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) Children born between 1968 and 1975 Adult outcomes measured between ages
25 and as late as age 37 for the earliest cohort
Use attrition-adjusted weights Income measured prenatal to age 15;
controls measured around or before birthAdjust standard errors for the presence of
siblings
Childhood Income
Income measured in prenatal year to age 15 (total of 17 years)
Norwegian Registry (1998 Kroner) Taxable income originating from the tax
files Child allowance transfers Social Assistance transfers
U.S. PSID (2005 Dollars) Taxable income Cash transfers
Adult Outcomes
Average annual adult earnings starting at age 24
Average weekly (Norway) or annual (U.S.) hours worked
Years of completed schooling around age 24
Sample Description
• Norway– 49% female– 42% first born– 1.96 average
number of siblings– Average age of
mother at birth 26.32
– Average education of father at birth 11.60
– 91% mothers married at birth
• U.S.– 47% female– 42% first born– 2.21 average
number of siblings– Average age of
mother at birth 24.84
– Average education of father at birth 12.09
– 84% mothers married at birth
Childhood Period Income(2005 USD)
Norway Prenatal to age 5$38,807 (17,408)
Age 6 to age 10$48,094 (21,094)
Age 11 to age 15$53,824 (27,146)
U.S. Prenatal to age 5$47,842 (28,340)
Age 6 to age 10$54,226 (39,012)
Age 11 to age 15$59,067 (45,369)
Adult Achievement Outcomes
Norway
$32,370 average annual earnings (2005 USD)
24.37 average hours worked per week (1267 annual equivalent)
12.91 years completed schooling
U.S.
$34,560 average annual earnings (2005 USD)
1892 average hours worked per year (37 weekly equivalent)
13.39 years completed schooling
Annual EarningsStandardized Regression
Coefficients
Norway US
Model 1
P-15 .06** .31**
Model 2
P-15 .09** .23**
Model 3
Ln P-15 .11** .37**
Model 4
Ln P-5 .05** .27**
Ln 6-10 .02** .06
Ln 11-15
.06** .08
Work HoursStandardized Regression
Coefficients
Norway US
Model 1
P-15 .05** .15**
Model 2
P-15 .08** .11**
Model 3
Ln P-15 .11** .20**
Model 4
Ln P-5 .05** .20**
Ln 6-10 .01** -.03
Ln 11-15
.07** .06
Years Completed SchoolingStandardized Regression
Coefficients
Norway US
Model 1
P-15 .18** .34**
Model 2
P-15 .07** .14**
Model 3
Ln P-15 .10** .22**
Model 4
Ln P-5 .01** .10*
Ln 6-10 .02** -.04
Ln 11-15
.09** .18**
Analysis
Average annual income in various childhood periods Prenatal to age 5 Age 6 to age 10 Age 11 to age 15
Splines with knot at 120,000 Kroner and $25,000 Allows for distinct linear effects for
average incomes up to the knot and for incomes higher than the knot
OLS Spline ModelAnnual Earnings (ln)
Norway
U.S.
P-5 <120k
.14** <25k
.52*
>120k
.01** >25k
.05**
6-10 <120k
.07** <25k
.14
>120k
.01** >25k
.01
11-15
<120k
.12** <25k
.04
>120k
.01** >25k
.00
OLS Spline ModelWork Hours
Norway
U.S.
P-5 <120k
2.19** <25k
506.74**
>120k
.11** >25k
20.60*
6-10 <120k
1.06** <25k
-60.82
>120k
.06** >25k
1.28
11-15
<120k
1.63** <25k
74.18
>120k
.18** >25k
-.92
OLS Spline ModelYears Completed Schooling
Norway
U.S.
P-5 <120k
.22** <25k
.19
>120k
.01** >25k
.03
6-10 <120k
.18** <25k
.65**
>120k
.01** >25k
-.06
11-15
<120k
.41** <25k
-.31
>120k
.05** >25k
.09**
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1,673
10,477
20,041
29,335
38,681
48,157
57,666
79,983
Norway US
Dummy variable estimates of the effects of early childhood income on log earnings (relative to high income)
E arly childhood income in US $
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1,673
10,477
20,041
29,335
38,681
48,157
57,666
79,983
Norway
US
Dummy variable estimates of the effects of early childhood income on weekly work hours
E arly childhood income in US $
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
1,673
10,477
20,041
29,335
38,681
48,157
57,666
79,983
Norway US
Dummy variable estimates of the effects of early childhood income on years of schooling
E arly childhood income in US $
Summary
Childhood stage matters in understanding links between childhood income and adult success, although not as much in the Norwegian as in the U.S.
Larger estimated impact of increments to low income early in childhood as compared with later periods in both datasets
Steeper income gradients for U.S. than Norwegian children
Conclusions
Our results suggest evidence that the Scandinavian egalitarian welfare model helps mitigate the effects of disadvantaged family background
Nevertheless, provides supporting evidence to U.S. studies on the role of income in early childhood
Next steps: criminal charges, non-marital fertility, social assistance receipt