long term analysis : forex · 2020. 1. 10. · the lagging span broke its kijun and tenkan and the...
TRANSCRIPT
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P1
Karen Péloille
M1/2020
Long Term Analysis :
A great uncertainty remains about
- statistically speaking (but what are the statistics worth in
elections are bullish for this currency.
- what will be the consequence of the signing of the China
- will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which see
taking shape?
Regarding the British Pound, I would rather lean towards
01/31.
From my point of view, I remain
positions on the Forex.
Updates on Twitter @KarenPeloille
Long Term Analysis : FOREXJanuary 2020
about the evolution of the US Dollar:
statistically speaking (but what are the statistics worth in current markets ???) the years of US
elections are bullish for this currency.
what will be the consequence of the signing of the China-US trade deal on 01/15?
will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which see
the British Pound, I would rather lean towards a rise following the activation of Brexit on
From my point of view, I remain "wait-and-see" in this month of January before taking possible LT
Ichimoku Market Analysis
FOREX
current markets ???) the years of US
on 01/15?
will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which seems to be
following the activation of Brexit on
in this month of January before taking possible LT
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P2
M1/2020
DXY - Yearly
"The question is therefore whether the index retries this break or returns to test the Tenkan at 88.33" >> the index broke again this Kijun but closed 2019 just below. No clear signal > a 3rd attempt for 2020 with a 3rd blue candle is possible as well as a return to the Tenkan ....
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P3
M1/2020
DXY - Quarterly
On this lower Time frame we will watch closely the SSB at 96.17 which could support the bearish Q4 2019 move which could then only be a breakout test. Or the correction could be deeper and fall towards the Tenkan at 93.74, a level also corresponding to the SSA under the Lagging Span. In any condition if the US index is to remain bullish it must in no case break the Kijun at 91.3725.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P4
M1/2020
DXY - Monthly
The Dollar Index closed December on the Kijun level (left) but entered the thick cloud. The Lagging Span broke its Kijun and Tenkan and the Andrews' pitchfork median line, validating a bearish signal but mind the "wall" of prices as next support where the index will meet the lower limit of this pitchfork on the same level. I expect a rebound either on the current level or on the median line with a pullback towards the SSA. Should the Lagging Span break back its median line plus Kijun then the next target expected could be the intermediate median line plus the trendline.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P5
M1/2020
EURUSD - Yearly
This pair closed 2019 below the bullish support trendline > 1) a pullback towards 1.14155 could be considered early 2020 if the USD continues its bearish correction. 2) the fall keeps moving on with a 3rd red candle with the cloud SSA as target on the same level as the low point of the 2019 candle or even lower, namely the SSB at 1.0489. 3) bearish invalidation on breakout of 1.14155 with the Kijun at 1.21325 as an ambitious annual target ... which would require a strongly bearish USD, which I do not consider for the moment. Statistically the USD is bullish in the US election year ... and if the Fed does not cut rates, the USD has little reason to drop significantly. This is theory thinking of course ...
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P6
M1/2020
EURUSD - Quarterly
This pair closed 2019 just above the uptrend support trendline > confirmation is required. If so, the primary target is still at 1.14155. Note the Lagging Span which barely bounced off its SSB. If it breaks it down, then the potential target could be 1.0489.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P7
M1/2020
EURUSD - Monthly
This time frame gives an important technical information on the break of the support trend line> a thick cloud is in resistance and prices have already tested it. Note also the Lagging Span which stumbled on its Kijun. A bullish move towards 1.14155 could therefore only occur if the Lagging Span breaks its Kijun + Tenkan in reinforcement and prices penetrate the cloud. A third blue candle is therefore possible under these conditions alone. Conversely, if the cloud acts as resistance, prices could then invalidate this bullish breakout.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P8
M1/2020
GBPUSD - Yearly
This pair remains technically bearish while under its Kijun and Tenkan. However, the presence of a possible triple bottom may suggest a bullish continuation towards the Tenkan at 1.4506. It's difficult to predict on this pair move between an unclear trend on the USD and the consequence of the activation of Brexit in late January on the GBP. For me, these two currencies should be bullish > which one of the two will be stronger ? this is what will give the trend on this pair.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P9
M1/2020
GBPUSD - Quarterly
The Q4 2019 close was done with a magnificent bullish candle just above the Tenkan. However I remain cautious on this movement which was mainly due to a strong fall in the USD at the end of the year. But it is also possible to consider a double bottom. We will therefore watch closely the Tenkan at 1.31675 > as long as prices remain above it, the bullish target will then be the Kijun at 1.4506. Should the Tenkan act as resistance, prices could then pullback towards the support trendline.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P10
M1/2020
GBPUSD - Monthly
Same scenario as the EURUSD pair with a thick cloud as resistance above prices. The breakout of the Kijun at the end of December, which gave a bullish signal, must therefore be put into perspective and above all confirmed. The Lagging Span stumbled on a candle and will meet the same situation in January with the next candle. The key level to watch is at 1.31675.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P11
M1/2020
AUDUSD - Yearly
Doji at the end of 2019> no trend> complete neutrality.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P12
M1/2020
AUDUSD - Quarterly
The pair did not manage to test the major support at 0.6495 and rebounded in Q4 2019> correction or end of the decline? Complete neutrality between 0.6495 as support and the Tenkan at 0.74035 as resistance > possible target should prices keep moving upwards.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P13
M1/2020
AUDUSD - Monthly
The Tenkan breakout suggests the possibility of a correction towards the Kijun at 0.74035 = quarterly Tenkan. But this break due to the reasons mentioned above is to be confirmed.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P14
M1/2020
USDJPY- Yearly
Still neutral between the Tenkan at 100.715 and the Kijun at 111.6.
(Chart capture on 01/03)
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P15
M1/2020
USDJPY - Quarterly
The pair is stuck between 111.6 and the SSB doubled by the support trend line.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P16
M1/2020
USDJPY - Monthly
The monthly Kijun breakout at 109.5 could leave the possibility of the twist breakout but note that it is blocked by a downward trendline ... I would rather consider a fall initiated by the January candle which currently breaks the Tenkan.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P17
M1/2020
USDCAD - Yearly
(Chart capture on 01/03)
Double support between 1.28636 and 1.2622 on each side of a thin cloud. The Lagging Span is under its prices with a double support at 1.28636 and 1.26945. Two possibilities : 1) prices rebound in this area 2) breakdown of this area.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P18
M1/2020
USDCAD - Quarterly
The Tenkan as support at 1.29557 is to be watched closely > rebound or breakdown? In the latter case, the bearish target would be the SSB at 1.2622 and the Kijun at 1.24805.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P19
M1/2020
USDCAD - Monthly
The quarterly Tenkan seen previously corresponds to the monthly Kijun. The breakdown of this level would therefore give a bearish signal. Beware, however, of the Tenkan as support under the Lagging Span. Bounce or bearish break? the pair remains neutral as long as prices are inside the cloud.
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Karen Péloille
Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille
Ichimoku Market Analysis
P20
M1/2020
Disclaimer
The main purpose of the analysis presented in this document is to lay out markets situations by finding out key levels to be watch closely for the week ahead. Fundamentals information is not taken into account. The information provided herein represents my personal opinion about markets possible future movements, mainly based upon the Ichimoku market reading system. Trading strategies are suggested with invalidation levels but they are not investment advices. The markets' key points put forward are only set out to help each trader build his own trading plan regarding his personal objectives and money management. I shouldn't be held responsible for the misuse of this report.
© Karen Péloille - 2020 All rights of reproduction, translation and adaptation reserved for all countries.