long-term electricity report 1 susan gray september 27, 2010
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Long-Term Electricity Report
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Susan GraySeptember 27, 2010
Long-Term Electricity Report
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• Executive Order 01.01.2010.16 - Identify approaches to meet Maryland’s long-term electricity needs and to achieve a clean, reliable, and affordable energy future
• Executive Order (EO) analysis will include:– Existing and planned electric generating capacity– Demand response– Electricity-based transportation– Existing and planned electric transmission– Conventional and renewable generating capacity additions (including small-scale distributed
generation)– Fuel-switching– Energy conservation and efficiency– Smart grid– Energy storage technologies
Not a planning document and will not recommend policy
Long-Term Electricity Report
• EO evaluation criteria:– Long-term cost and cost stability (including congestion
costs)– Supply reliability– Transmission and distribution issues– Minimization of adverse environmental and land-use
impacts– Consistency with state and federal environmental laws
• Solicit input and comments from a wide range of stakeholders
• Hold public meetings prior to completion of the report
• Final Report – December 1, 2011• Update the report every 5 years
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Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach
• Use Ventyx Integrated model outputs– Generating capacity changes (retirements,
additions, retrofits)– Capacity prices & zonal LMPs– REC and emissions allowance prices– Emissions of pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx)– Generation and fuel sources by zone
• Use PJM energy and demand forecasts (adjust for demand response and EE/EC)
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Long-Term Electricity Report
Building on other past and ongoing efforts
MEA’s Maryland Energy Outlook
Maryland PSC’s SB400 Final Report to the
General Assembly - and Supplement
Long-termElectricity Report
Eastern InterconnectionStates’ Planning Council
Transmission Options Study
MDE/MEA/PSCMaryland Multi-pollutant
analysis
Maryland PSC’s10-Year Plan
Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.)
7+ potential base case scenarios to be run along with 16+ alternative scenarios
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Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.)
Possible alternative scenarios run on different base cases
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Long-Term Electricity Report
Step #1 – get the assumptions right and make the process transparent.Step #2 – make the model runs.
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Use PPRAC as advisory committee during development of the report.
Long-Term Electricity Report
Based on informal inputs received from several PPRAC members and on-going research:
– EmPOWER Maryland goals - met in the base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement based on current approved programs?
– Potential additional scenarios for high electric vehicle penetration?
– Mix of renewable generating capacity for high renewables cases (how much off-shore & on-shore wind, solar, other)?
– Renewable Portfolio Standard – re: solar carve out - met in the base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement?
Long-Term Electricity Report
Schedule• Assumptions completed & documented – December 2010• Receive PJM 2011 Forecast and begin runs – January 2011• Preliminary Draft Report – March 2011
– Introductory and background sections– Descriptions of models and development of model input parameters– Results of base case runs (w/o all alternative scenarios)
• Draft report – late April 2011– Followed by a public meeting
• Final draft report – late Summer/Fall 2011• Followed by a public meeting
• Final Report – December 1, 2011
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Long-Term Electricity Report
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Questions?