long term sustainable development strategy, latvia 2030 process so far and development scenarios...
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Long Term Sustainable Development Strategy,
Latvia 2030Process so far and
development scenarios
Starting with values…
7%
15%
10%
21%
17%
9%
13%
3%2%
11%
14%
5% 5%6%
20%
5%
13%14%
10%
17%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7
Personal Current Culture Desired Culture
Rural Areas (293)
September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values
Economic growthJob security
Material wealthProsperity
Economic growthJob security
Material wealthProsperity
Governmental efficiency
Governmental efficiency
Caring for elderlyCaring for the disadvantagedEnvironmental
awareness
Caring for elderlyCaring for the disadvantagedEnvironmental
awareness
Concern for future generationsWorld peaceSocial justice
Concern for future generationsWorld peaceSocial justice
7%
15%
10%
23%
16%
9%
13%
3% 3%
10%
13%
5% 5% 5%
20%
6%
14%13%
10%
17%16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7
Personal Current Culture Desired Culture
Regional Centres (219)
September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values
Affordable housingEconomic growth
Job security
Affordable housingEconomic growth
Job security
FamilyFamily
Caring for elderlyEnvironmental awareness
Caring for the disadvantaged
Caring for elderlyEnvironmental awareness
Caring for the disadvantaged
ChildrenConcern for future
generationsSocial justice
ChildrenConcern for future
generationsSocial justice
HonestyHonesty
7%
15%14%
20%
16%
8%
13%
4%5%
12%
14%
8%
4%5%
16%
5%
16% 16%
13%
15% 15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7
Personal Current Culture Desired Culture
Larger Cities (159)
September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values
Affordable housingEconomic growth
Job securityProsperity
Material wealth
Affordable housingEconomic growth
Job securityProsperity
Material wealth
Governmental efficiency
Governmental efficiency
Caring for elderlyCaring for the disadvantagedEnvironmental
awarenessQuality of life
Caring for elderlyCaring for the disadvantagedEnvironmental
awarenessQuality of life
Concern for future generations
Human rights
Concern for future generations
Human rights
The time horizon of an average Latvia’s inhabitant is 18 months. Notwithstanding, in 2007 there were 0.4 loans per inhabitant. An average medium to long term loan term was 18 years. An average amount due every month is 350 USD. 86 % of all funds are kept in low yield form with yield not more than 50% of inflation.
Facts
81% of inhabitants have not heard anything about sustainability or sustainable life style
In 2030 demographic dependency ratio would be 57% (currently 46%), an average age 44 and the population decrease by 12.6% from the current.
… think short term
do not care much about sustainability
...getting older
...brain drain for real
In 2004 and 2005 49976 inhabitants acquired higher (University level) education, and 18% went to work outside the country (not continue studies).
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-1
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7
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Working age population contributionLabour productivity contributionLabour utilisation contributionReal GDP growth
Optimistic scenario of GDP and labour productivity growth
- IKP pieaugums %
European Central Bank, June 2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
4000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GD
P p
er c
apita
, LV
L 20
00 p
rices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mea
n of
val
ue o
f hap
pine
ss a
sses
smen
ts
GDP per capita Happiness
Easterlin paradox at play
3.5
44.
55
5.5
Life
Sat
isfa
ctio
n
0 5 10 15Income levels
Fitted values Life Satisfaction
Household income per person relationship with life satisfaction
Key tenetsHappy people living in a welfare state
Sustainable and healthy life stylesCreative, tolerant and youthful society
Cooperation based competitivenessState as a fastability partner
Strategic development dilemmas
Social participation forums, discussions, expert debates, media coverage, www.Latvija2030.lv
Four long term development scenarios
Social participation forums, discussions, expert debates, media coverage, www.Latvija2030.lv
Preferred version and 1st edition
Public consultations
Peer Review and recommendations
Value based approach - vision
Long-term sustainable development strategy reports Background Review – social trendsCompetitiveness and resourcesEnergy and transportSurvey reports on life satisfactionA review of public service planning documentsStrategic development dilemmasDevelopment Scenarios draft
Research and analytical reports
Local and foreign peer reviews , twelve brainstorms
Three population surveys (N=1000) values, attitudes, habits, sustainable life styles
Latvia occupies 23 place in EU-25 inovation rankingHigh tech share in exports 3.2% (19% of the EU-25 average)International patent applications- 4% of the EU average90 national inventions patents registered in 2007Latvia’s scientists work as ‘small partners’ in larger international scientific projectsExpenditure on research and development – 0.57% from GDP (Sweden – 4%)54.5% - of students in social sciences, entrepreneurship and law (34.3% EU average)5.2% - natural sciences, mathematics and compsci (10.7%)9.5% - engineering, construction (14.7%)
Science, innovations
Education
Development scenarios – contrast method
Identification of trends and issues
Scoring of issues and trends
Identification of drivers
Building scenarios
Stakeholder workshops
The Dutch biotechnology development scenarios
2030
Avots: http://www.efmn.info/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=68
Scenarios Latvia 2030
C. Successful,
large companies
A. Efficient and strong state
D. Civil society
B. FOCU- service
providers
Resource concentration
Resource dispersal
Contract between
an individual and the
state
Self-regulation of social
groupings
• Economic life, entrepreneurship• Energy, environment• Spatial development
• Risks and social costs
• Resources• Power• Public governance• Education and Culture• Migration
Scenario directions:
Key building ideas for the strategy –
a) modes of livelihood, habitat, life satisfactionb) handling risks and
challengesc) positioning within global
value regimes
Income tax per capita
304 296277
254 248230 222 210
105
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Baloži Rīga Jūrmala Ogre Olaine Limbaži Vangaži Tukums Staicele
Riga region cities
Ls
APMIERINĀTĪBAS AR DZĪVI VĒRTĒJUMS: apmierināto iedzīvotāju īpatsvars (%)2007.gada dati
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jūrmala Olaine Limbaži Rīga Ogre Tukums
Rīgas reģiona pilsētas
% Apmierinātība ar dzīvi kopumā Ar ģimene Ar mājokli Ar iegūto izglītības līmeni Ar darbu Ar ienākumiem
Income tax per capita
270 257236
208 197 196 193168 163
143 130
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Valmiera Smiltene Cēsis Madona Alūksne Valka Gulbene Līgatne Rūjiena Cesvaine Mazsalaca
Vidzeme region cities
Ls
APMIERINĀTĪBAS AR DZĪVI VĒRTĒJUMS: apmierināto iedzīvotāju īpatsvars (%)2007.gada dati
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cēsis Alūksne Gulbene Valmiera Rūjiena
Vidzemes reģiona pilsētas
% Apmierinātība ar dzīvi kopumā Ar ģimene Ar mājokli Ar iegūto izglītības līmeni Ar darbu Ar ienākumiem
Income tax per capita
255223
195 193175 172
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ventspils Talsi Saldus Liepāja Kuldīga Aizpute
Kurzeme region cities
Ls
APMIERINĀTĪBAS AR DZĪVI VĒRTĒJUMS: apmierināto iedzīvotāju īpatsvars (%)2007.gada dati
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Liepāja Saldus Ventspils Kuldīga
Kurzemes reģiona pilsētas
% Apmierinātība ar dzīvi kopumā Ar ģimene Ar mājokli Ar iegūto izglītības līmeni Ar darbu Ar ienākumiem
Income tax per capita
196181 166 161 160
143120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Rēzekne Balvi Preiļi Daugavpils Ludza Krāslava Līvāni
Latgale region cities
Ls
APMIERINĀTĪBAS AR DZĪVI VĒRTĒJUMS: apmierināto iedzīvotāju īpatsvars (%)2007.gada dati
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Daugavpils Ludza Rēzekne Preiļi Krāslava
Latgales reģiona pilsētas
% Apmierinātība ar dzīvi kopumā Ar ģimene Ar mājokli Ar iegūto izglītības līmeni Ar darbu Ar ienākumiem
Thank you for your attention!