looking through a glass darkly: the future of the market and your investments a presentation by john...
TRANSCRIPT
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Looking Through A Glass Darkly:The Future of The Market and
Your Investments
A Presentation byJohn Mauldin,
Author of Bull’s Eye Investing And the Editor of Thoughts from the Frontline
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The More Things Change…
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Three Things That Will Three Things That Will Not ChangeNot Change
A. The Innovation Cycle
B. Secular Bull and Bear Markets
C. Human Psychology
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The The
InnovationInnovation
CycleCycle
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The Innovation S-Curve
Mar
ket
Pen
etra
tio
n
Time
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Diagram of Dent’s Innovation Cycle
Mar
ket
Pen
etra
tio
n
Time
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Some Ruminations on the Character of a Secular Bear Market
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““The race is not to the swift, The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong.”nor the battle to the strong.”
But that is the way to the Bet.
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They all start with period’s of high price to earnings
(P/E) ratio’s
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Markets are Volatile and Tricky Little DEVILS
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The negative impact of compounding:
Giving back the good times
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Taxpayer Nominal
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Taxpayer Real
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Human Psychology
- Just a few examples of our behavior patterns which drive the markets
- And Drive Us Crazy
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A. The Home Field Advantage
B. Confirmation Bias
C. Hindsight Bias
D. Extrapolation - Projection vs. Interference
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What Will Change?What Will Change?A. The Pace of Innovation
B. The Pace of Globalization
C. The Shift From A US-Centric World to a More Balanced World
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The Pace of Innovation
The Shakeout from the Information Age
Economy Innovation Growth Boom Shakeout Maturity Boom
Agricultural / Commerce -- -- -- -1809
Cotton / Textile 1762-1794 1794-1834 1834-1843 1843-1861
Railroad / Industrial 1831-1847 1847-1888 1888-1895 1895-1917
Mass Production 1882-1908 1908-1937 1937-1944 1944-1973
Information 1961-1981 1981-2007? 2007-2014? --
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Railroad/Industrial Economy Industries
IndustryInnovation
DateGrowth
BoomMaturity Boom
Coal -- 1844-1883 1883-1917
Education (Elementary) -- -1851 1851-1930
Iron -- 1846-1889 1889-1916
Railroad 1830 1857-1887 1887-1917
Steel 1855 1878-1898 1898-1918
Telegraph 1844 1860-1893 1906-1929
Composite 1839 1847-1889 1895-1917
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Mass-Market Economy Industries
IndustryInnovation
DateGrowth Boom Maturity Boom
Airline 1909 1951-1967 1967-1987
Broadcasting 1917 1925-1940 1946-1970
Education (Secondary) -- 1910-1940 1940-1970
Electric Power 1882 1905-1941 1945-1976
Electric Appliances 1901 1909-1937 1943-1960
Motor Vehicles 1893 1907-1929 1949-1973
Petroleum 1859 1889-1937 1943-1956
Synthetic Fibers 1884 1921-1936 1943-1978
Telephone 1876 1907-1929 1945-1980
Composite 1895 1908-1937 1944-1973
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Demography is Demography is DestinyDestiny
The Pace and Shift The Pace and Shift of Globalizationof Globalization
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Fundamental Fundamental RestructuringRestructuring
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The Shift to the East is an The Shift to the East is an Economic, Political and Economic, Political and
DemographicDemographic
Governments are the Governments are the Problem, Problem,
not the Solutionnot the Solution
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The Change is the Demise The Change is the Demise of Centralized Governments of Centralized Governments
and the Rise of the and the Rise of the
Sovereign IndividualSovereign Individual