los angeles palo alto © 2004 accelerating.org john smart world technology summit 2004...

© 2004 Accelerating.org

Los AngelesPalo Alto

John SmartWorld Technology Summit 2004(accelerating.org/slides.html)

Intro to Accelerating Change:Exploring Micro and Macro Frontiers



The Extraordinary Present

“There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” — Gail Carr Feldman

Quiet happiness, careful confidence, and flow (see Flow, by Csikszentmihalyi) are the natural state of the human animal.

Our accelerating world adds regular surprise to the mix. If you aren’t surprised (occasionally even astonished) at least once a day, perhaps you aren’t looking closely enough.



The Future is Now

“You will never again be as good looking as you are today.”“Things will never again be as slow or simple as they are today.”

— You (in front of the mirror every morning). More than ever, the Future is Now. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.

— William Gibson (paraphrased)

We have two options: Future Shock, or Future Shaping. Never has the lever of technology been so powerful. Never have we had so much impact, and potential for impact.

We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and a paralyzing adherence to the status quo.

— David Brin (paraphrased)

Tip: Great input leads to great output. Do you have a weekly reading and writing period? Several learning and doing communities? How global is your thinking and action?



Institute for the Study of Accelerating Change

ISAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change.

We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices.

Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.



The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”

Com

plex

Env

iron

men

tal I

nter

actio

n

Selection & Convergence““Convergent Selection”Convergent Selection”Emergence,Global OptimaMEST-Compression Standard Attractors

Development

Replication & Variation ““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Adaptive Radiation Chaos, ContingencyPseudo-Random SearchStrange Attractors

Evolution

Right HandLeft Hand

Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computational Phase Space Opening



Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)

The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.



How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?

Evolution tried this experiment.

Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.



How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal?

Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.



Something Curious Is Going On

Unexplained.(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)



From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED



From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED

Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977)

Each month is roughly 1 billion years.



A U-Shaped Curve of Change?

Big Bang Singularity

100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.

1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth

100,000 yrs: Matter

50 yrs ago: Machina silico50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds

Developmental Singularity?



Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

Free Energy Rate DensitySubstrate (ergs/second/gram)

Galaxies 0.5Stars 2 (“counterintuitive”)Planets (Early) 75Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)Jets (10^8)

Pentium Chips (10^11)

Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

Ф

time



Saturation: A Biological Lesson

How S Curves Get Old

Resource limits in a niche Material

Energetic

Spatial

Temporal

Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing

Curious Facts:

1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last

2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition

Result: No apparent limits to the acceleration of local intelligence, interdependence, and immunity in new substrates over time.



Understanding the Lever of ICT

“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD



Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.

(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,

P2P as a proprietary or open source development)

3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).



Many Accelerations are Underwhelming

Some Modest Exponentials: Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500%

over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr) Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11%

over 25 years. Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP

is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002). Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100%

(4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002) Scientific publications have increased 40% over 13

years (1988-2001).

BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004



Revisit 1929

Business Week’s First Edition:

IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”

PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco.

Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would sustain a relentless, profound, accelerating transformation while another would, on the surface, appear largely unchanged?

Can we predict this now?



Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)

Materials Science (“Substrates”) Synthetic Materials Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948) Microprocessor Fiber Optics Lasers and Optoelectronics Wired and Wireless Networks Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots Exotic Condensed Matter





“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)

Systems and Software Television (1940’s) Mainframes (1950’s) Minicomputers (1970’s) Personal Computers (1980’s) Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s) Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s) Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s) Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical

Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS, Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP…





“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)

Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”) Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise

missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered submarines... (major open problems (security))

Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”) Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management,

process automation, big-box retailing, robotics… (major open problems (rich-poor divide))






Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”) Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA,

EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights, zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law, feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.)






Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”) Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals,

transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics, microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”)

Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”) Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards

(Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s), mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit…

Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”) Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines,

hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden change)”)



ICT: A 2030 Vision

Entertain a Radical Proposition: “Human-ICT” computational domains are saturating. “Microcosm” ICT is not.

(Human pop. flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2nd order deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues.)

Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech, Biotech, Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and Envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030 (with major ICT extensions).

We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global, not local. Our generation’s theme:“First World Saturating, Third World Uplifting.”

Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld, and Cosmology have continued to surprise us.

ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation, Interface) now look, and feel, very different.



Physical Space: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a world network of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." —Tielhard de Chardin

“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition”



Physical Space: A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”)

Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency

David Brin,The Transparent Society, 1998



Physical Space: Is Biotech a Saturated Substrate?

21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t accelerate biological complexity (seems likely now). – Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions– “Most complex structure in the known universe”

Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions– In-group ethics, body image, personal identity

We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans”– No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so. – Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead.

Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity – Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.”



Virtual Space: Is Inner Space the Final Frontier?

Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998. Large scale structures in spacetime are:

• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development• Relatively computationally simple and tractable (transparent)• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science• A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of

emergence of universal intelligence?

versus

Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain



Interface: Oil Refinery (A Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)

Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.



Interface: Understanding Process Automation

Perhaps 80-90% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”).

Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth)“7/8 comes from technical progess.”

Human contribution (10-20%) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education

Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).

Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound



An ICT Attractor:The Linguistic User Interface

Google’s cache (2002, % non-novel) Watch Windows 2004 become

Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech



In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture



Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”When you die in 2099, your digital you will be 99% you. Will this feel like death, or growth?

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your consciousness between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological will feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.



Action Items

1. Sign up for free Tech Tidbits and Accelerating Times newsletters at Accelerating.org

2. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2004)November 5-7 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA

3. Send feedback to [email protected]

Thank You.

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