Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast: 2012 Update

January 6, 2011

Governor’s Advisory Commission on Coastal Protection and RestorationKirk Rhinehart - OCPR

Overview of 2012 Master Plan Update

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Coastal Louisiana is Facing a Crisis

Builds on Other Efforts

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Uses Original 2007 Master Plan Science-based Objectives as Foundation

1.Reduce economic losses from storm-based flooding

2.Promote a sustainable coastal ecosystem by harnessing natural system processes

3.Provide habitats suitable to support an array of commercial and recreational activities coast-wide

4.Sustain Louisiana’s unique heritage and culture

More than Concepts and Broad Strategies – An Implementation Plan with Expected Outcomes

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Elements of 2012 Master Plan with Building Blocks for Other Efforts

• Specific & Realistic Goals & Objectives

• Prioritized Project List

• Map showing the selected projects and what they provide:

• Levels of protection• Levels of ecosystem services across the coast• Extent and character of future landscape

• Detailed Implementation plan with:• Schedule, Costs, Expected sources of funding

• An Adaptive Management plan to guide implementation

Key Components of 2012 Update

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Project Team & Collaborative Effort

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Master Plan Delivery Team

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Review and Coordination

Project Effects Models

Technical Advisory

Committee

Prioritization Tool Technical

Advisory Committee

Master Plan Delivery Team

Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory

Committee

CPRACoastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Project-Effects Models• Steve Ashby, USACE Eng. Res. Dev. Center

• John Callaway, University of San Francisco

• Fred Sklar, South Florida Water Mgmt. District

• Si Simenstad, University of Washington

Prioritization Tool TAC• John Boland, John Hopkins

• Ben Hobbs, John Hopkins

• Len Shabman, Virginia Tech

Cultural Heritage TAC• Don Davis, Louisiana State University• Carl Brasseaux, University of Louisiana Lafayette• Maida Owens, LA Dept. of Cultural, Recreation, Tourism

Technical Advisory Committee Members

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Review and Coordination

Project Effects Models

Technical Advisory

Committee

Prioritization Tool Technical

Advisory Committee

Master Plan Delivery Team

Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory

Committee

CPRACoastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Modeling Workgroups

Project - Effects Models

Team Leader

Eco-hydrology Dr. Ehab Meselhe, ULL + 9 members

Vegetation Dr. Jenneke Visser, ULL + 8 members

Wetland Morphology Dr. Greg Steyer, USGS + 6 members

Barrier Island Morphology

Dr. Mark Kulp, UNO + 6 members

Upper Trophic Level Dr. Andy Nyman, LSU + 8 members

Storm Surge Dr. Joe Suhayda/Arcadis, + 3 members

Storm Damage/Risk Dr. Jordan Fischbach, RAND + 7 members

Project - Effects Models Team Members

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Over 60 Team Members, Support Staff, and Technical Advisory Committee Members

Review and Coordination

Project Effects Models

Technical Advisory

Committee

Prioritization Tool Technical

Advisory Committee

Master Plan Delivery Team

Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory

Committee

CPRACoastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Science & Engineering

Board (MP-SEB)

Modeling Workgroups

Ecosystem Science / Coastal Ecology• William Dennison, University of Maryland• Mark Brinson, East Carolina University• Ed Houde, University of Maryland

Engineering• Robert Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University• Jos Dijkman, Deltares

Geosciences• Charles Groat, University of Texas at Austin

Social Science and Risk• Greg Baecher, University of Maryland• Philip Berke, University of North Carolina –

Chapel HillClimate Change• Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey

National Science and Engineering Board -Independent Technical Review

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Review and Coordination

Project Effects Models

Technical Advisory

Committee

Prioritization Tool Technical

Advisory Committee

Master Plan Delivery Team

Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory

Committee

CPRACoastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Science & Engineering

Board (MP-SEB)

Framework Development Team (FDT)

Stakeholders

Modeling Workgroups

Framework Development Team-Over 30 Federal, State, NGO, Academic, Community, and Industry Organizations

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• Framework Development Team as Key Consultative Group• Represent broad range of interests

• Ports and Navigation

• Fisheries and Restoration

• Oil and Gas• Focal point for communications

• Local Outreach

• Political and PR Strategies

• Coastal Louisiana Website

Communication & Outreach Elements of Framework Development Team

Review and Coordination

Project Effects Models

Technical Advisory

Committee

Prioritization Tool Technical

Advisory Committee

Master Plan Delivery Team

Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory

Committee

CPRACoastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Gulf Recovery Plan

Other Federal

Programs

Science & Engineering

Board (MP-SEB)

Framework Development Team (FDT)

Stakeholders

Modeling Workgroups

Restoration and Protection

Vision

• Realistic expectations for protection and restoration• What we want to achieve not what we want to do

• Confront trade-offs upfront• Provide an expectation of future conditions

Why a Vision?

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• Support of navigation and commercial activities

• Protection for major population centers, strategic assets, and historic properties at varying levels

• A coastwide emphasis on non-structural protection, especially in outlying communities

• Maximum use of river resources and natural processes, and management of estuarine gradients to provide ecosystem services

• Strategic use of dredging/placement of sediment to bolster ‘skeleton’ of the system

Preliminary Vision – Key Aspects

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Unless We Act, the Future is Bleak

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Vision – Strategic Assets

• Approach – • Identify ports of national significance as

strategic assets to be protected• Account for effects of protection and

restoration projects on navigation and ports• Coordinate with the USACE, DOTD and

navigation interests to integrate coastwide port and navigation strategy and targets in future Coastal Louisiana Master Planning

Incorporation of Ports and Navigation into Master Plan Process

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Levels of Protection

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Both Structural and Non-structural

>100-Year Level of Protection

100-Year Level of Protection

50-Year Level of Protection

25-Year Level of Protection

` No Additional Protection Provided

Restoration Vision: Ecosystem Services

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Agricultural/aquaculture production

Oyster harvest

Saltwater fisheries harvest

Carbon/nutrient uptake

Ecotourism

Shoreline recreation

Surge/wave attenuation

Shrimp harvest

Freshwater-dependent services

Prioritization Tool

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Planning Framework Guides Investments Towards a Sustainable Future

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How do we get there?What should we do now?

How can we adapt to evolving uncertainties and improved information?

What tradeoffs remain?

A sustainable future

- Sustainable coastline & ecosystems

- Resilient communities and assets

- Long-term cost savings through strategic investments

Future without action

- Severe land loss- Increasing hurricane flood risk- Loss of ecosystem services- Loss of cultural heritage- Reactive expenditures

Key Steps:1.Define a future vision for the coast

2.Estimate individual project effects on the coast

3.Compare individual projects

4.Construct feasible project portfolios

5.Select robust project portfolios

6.Consider trade-offs among robust portfolios

7.Define implementation strategy

8.Examine expected outcomes

Prioritization Process

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• Maps showing ranges of Master Plan outcomes• Levels of flood protection• Levels of ecosystem services• Extent and character of

landscape

• An adaptive management plan to guide implementation• Maps of near-term projects• Maps of potential future

project• Schedule• Costs• Expected sources of funding

2012 Master Plan Outputs

Any Questions?

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