louisville by the numbers recent trends in population, households, and housing
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Louisville by the Numbers Recent Trends in Population, Households, and Housing Sales and Marketing Council Home Builders Association of Louisville Michael Price Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville Louisville, Kentucky June 14, 2012. America’s New Regions. New Sunbelt. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Louisville by the NumbersRecent Trends in Population, Households, and Housing
Sales and Marketing CouncilHome Builders Association of Louisville
Michael PriceKentucky State Data CenterUniversity of Louisville
Louisville, KentuckyJune 14, 2012
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Source: William H. Frey
New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States
America’s New Regions
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The New Sunbelt
Melting Pot America
The Heartland
Diversity states
Slow growth states
Migration growth states
America’s New Demographic Regions
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Source: William Frey.
Colorado Georgia-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1.9
12.2 8.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1.6
10.0
8.1
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
New Sunbelt
New Sunbelt: Examples
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Source: William Frey.
California New York
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
7.4
-7.2
10.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
6.0
-10.2
5.3
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
Melting Pot: Examples
Melting Pot
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Source: William Frey & Michael Price
Pennsylvania
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.9
-2.1
2
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
Heartland: Examples
Heartland
Series1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.92.3
4.1
Kentucky
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Kentucky 2010 Census ResultsNumber Change in Population by County 2000 - 2010
State population count change: 297,598
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Largest growing counties
Jefferson (47,492)
Fayette (35,291)
Boone (32,820)
Warren (21,270)
Oldham (14,138)
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Fastest growing counties
Spencer (45%)
Scott (43%)
Boone (38%)
Oldham (31%)
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On the downside
36 counties lost population.
27 counties grew by less than 4%.
88 counties grew slower than the state.
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Biggest Losers
Harlan (-3,924)
Pike (-3,712)
Floyd (-2,990)
Clay (-2,826)
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Fastest Losers
Breathitt (-14%)
Fulton (-12%)
Harlan (-12%)
Clay (-12%)
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In metro areas In micro areas In rural areas
83.7%
10.0% 6.3%
58.4%
17.6%24.0%
United States Kentucky
Total Population Distribution 2010
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Total Population
In metro areas
In micro areas
In rural areas
9.7%
10.8%
5.9%
1.8%
7.4%
11.1%
5.9%
0.2%
Kentucky United States
Population Growth 2000-2010
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Bowling Green
Cincinnati
Clarksville
Elizabethtown
Evansville
Huntington-Ashland
Lexington-Fayette
Louisville
Owensboro
20.9%
12.3%
4.0%
11.3%
1.6%
15.6%
10.5%
4.4%
Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Percent Change 2000-2010
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Bowling Green
Cincinnati
Clarksville
Elizabethtown
Evansville
Huntington-Ashland
Lexington-Fayette
Louisville
Owensboro
21,787
46,489
3,432
12,189
922
63,773
97,998
4,877
Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas 2000-2010
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Jefferson (47,138)
Oldham (14,138)
Bullitt(13,083)
Spencer (5,295)
Trimble (684)
Clark(13,851)
Harrison (5,039)
Meade(2,253)
Shelby (8,737)
Henry (356)Washington (1,039)
Nelson (5,960)
Floyd(3,755)
Louisville MSAPopulation Growth 2000-2010(121,682)
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Louisville/Jefferson741,096
Nelson 43,437Oldham 60,316
Bullitt 74,319
Floyd 74,578
Clark
110
,323
Henry
Spencer
Washington 28,262
Meade 28,608
Harrison 39,364
Shelby 42,074
Trimble
17,061
15,416
8,809
Louisville MSATotal Population 2010
1,283,557
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Louisville/ Jef-ferson
Louisville MSA
Kentucky
United States
6.8%
10.5%
7.4%
9.7%
Percent Change in Population 2000 - 2010
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SpencerOldham
ShelbyBullitt
NelsonHarrison
ClarkMeade
TrimbleJefferson
FloydWashington
Henry
45.0%30.6%
26.2%21.4%
15.9%14.7%14.4%
8.6%8.4%
6.8%5.3%
3.8%2.4%
Louisville MSA CountiesPercent Change in Population
2000 - 2010
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JeffersonOldham
ClarkBullitt
ShelbyNelson
SpencerHarrison
FloydMeade
WashingtonTrimble
Henry
47,492
14,138
13,851
13,083
8,737
5,960
5,295
5,039
3,755
2,253
1,039
684
356
Louisville MSA CountiesPopulation Growth
2000 - 2010
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Annual Rates of Population GrowthP
erce
nt C
hang
e
Louisville MSA
Louis
ville/
Jeffe
rson
Cou
nty
United States
Preliminary estimates by Michael Price
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Louisville/Jefferson CountyComponents of Population Growth
Natural Increase
Net International Migration
Net Domestic Migration
Preliminary estimates by Michael Price
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Population(in households)
Households
Housing Units
Household Size
Occupancy-Vacancy
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
3.36 3.16
2.69 2.48 2.37 2.35
Louisville/Jefferson County Household Size
Number of persons per household
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
550,000
650,000
750,000
598,914
726,943
178,192
309,175
188,311
337,616
Louisville/Jefferson County 1960-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1960-2000 and 2009 American Community Survey.
Household Population
Households
Housing Units
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-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0HH PopulationHouseholdsHousing Units
% C
hang
eLouisville/Jefferson County Decennial Growth Rates
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
5.4%4.6%
5.7%6.5% 6.2%
8.4%
Louisville/Jefferson CountyVacant Housing 1960-2010
Percent of total housing units not occupied
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
9.1%10.1% 10.5%
11.3%
10.2%
8.4%
Louisville/Jefferson County Vacant HousingPercent of total housing units not occupied
American Community Survey 2010 Census
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Total Population Growth 2000 - 2010
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Percent Change in Total Population 2000 - 2010
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Louisville Vacant Housing 2000
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Louisville Vacant Housing 2010
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1990 2000 201050.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
64.5% 64.9%63.1%
Louisville/Jefferson CountyPercent Owner-Occupied Households
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Hispanic or Latino
Two or more races
Asian
Black or African American
Total Population
20,172
5,384
6,609
22,448
-7,495
47,492
White, not Hispanic
*Race categories exclude Hispanics.
Louisville/Jefferson CountyPopulation growth by race and Hispanic origin2000 - 2010
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Hispanic or Latino
Two or more races
Asian
Black or African American
Total Population
60.9%
69.1%
17.3%
-1.4%
6.8%
White, not Hispanic
*Race categories exclude Hispanics.
Louisville/Jefferson CountyPercent change in population by race and Hispanic origin2000 - 2010
163.1%
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From 2000 to 2010,Jefferson County population grew by 47,492.
• 16% of state total population growth
• 57% of state Black population growth
• 35% of state Asian population growth
• 28% of state Hispanic population growth
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Black Population Growth 2000 - 2010
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Percent Change in Black Population 2000 - 2010
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2000 2010
64.9
56.0
Louisville/Jefferson CountyBlack – White Segregation Index
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Median Family Income2000
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Median Family Income2005/2009
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Change in Median Family Income2000 – 2005/2009
Actual dollars (no adjustment for inflation)
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Median value of owner-occupied housing2005/2009
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Change in median house value2000 – 2005/2009
Change in actual dollars (no adjustment for inflations)
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560,000
570,000
580,000
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000
630,000
640,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Jobs, Louisville MSA1999 to 2010
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey, seasonally adjusted, through December 2010.
December, 2010: 586,000
peak: 628,000
drop in last recession of 4.5%
….but note that employment took 3 years to turn up after last downturn
drop of 7.0%
Source: Dr. Paul Coomes
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Dayton
Greensboro
Louisville
Kansas City
Cincinnati
Columbus
Omaha
Birmingham
Memphis
Indianapolis
Richmond
Jacksonville
Nashville
Charlotte
Raleigh
-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
MSA Total Employment Growth 2001 - 2007
Percent Change
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Greensboro
Dayton
Birmingham
Memphis
Jacksonville
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Nashville
Columbus
Kansas City
Richmond
Indianapolis
Louisville
Raleigh
Omaha
-10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0
MSA Total Employment Growth 2007 – June 2010 (P)
Percent Change
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Dayton
Greensboro
Birmingham
Memphis
Cincinnati
Kansas City
Columbus
Louisville
Indianapolis
Richmond
Jacksonville
Omaha
Charlotte
Nashville
Raleigh
-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
MSA Total Employment Growth 2001 – June 2010 (P)
Percent Change
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics