Lovejoy I.S.D.

Demographic Update

May 13, 2013

Population & Survey Analysts

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,

2010-11

Absolute

Change

in

Student

Enrollment

Fall 2011 to

Fall 2012

Source: TEA

Data released April 2013

Percent

Change

in

Student

Enrollment

Fall 2011 to

Fall 2012

Source: TEA

Data released April 2013

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Past Growth Rates E

nro

llment

8.06%

7.59%

3.1%

4.89%

4.49%

Unique Characteristics of Lovejoy I.S.D.

Several factors give L.I.S.D. a competitive advantage for development (developers choosing to build in the District):

Low economically disadvantaged student population (2.3%)

High TAKS passage rate (95%) --- based on PASA’s assessment of all Texas school districts (Spring 2011)

Highly educated population (59% have bachelor’s degree or higher)

High median income level ($117,721) – behind Highland Park and Carroll I.S.D.

Unique Characteristics of Lovejoy I.S.D.

Older population – median age = 44.1 (heavily impacted by Heritage Ranch)

Yet, a greater % of student-aged population

than most suburban districts, (26% of tot. population), so very family-oriented

Longer median travel time to work than

most D-FW suburban school districts

(one-way) = 32.3 minutes

Rank District NamePercent

Disadvantaged

1 HIGHLAND PARK ISD 0.00%

2 LOVEJOY ISD 2.33%

3 CARROLL ISD 2.35%

4 EANES ISD 3.13%

5 FRIENDSWOOD ISD 8.19%

6 COPPELL ISD 10.26%

7 PROSPER ISD 11.66%

8 FRISCO ISD 12.03%

9 ALEDO ISD 12.28%

10 LAKE TRAVIS ISD 12.32%

Economically Disadvantaged Student Population

in Texas: 2012-13

* Of 328 Districts with 2,000 or more students

Economically Disadvantaged Population

Fall 2012

Rank District Name

Total

Enrollment 2011 2010 2009 2008

1 Highland Park ISD 6,689 98% 98% 99% 98%

2 Carroll ISD 7,672 97% 97% 95% 94%

3 Eanes ISD 7,717 96% 96% 95% 94%

4 Lovejoy ISD 3,388 95% 95% 94% 91%

5 Lake Travis ISD 6,978 94% 94% 91% 90%

6 Coppell ISD 10,217 94% 94% 93% 93%

7 Friendswood ISD 5,970 94% 94% 93% 92%

8 Wylie ISD 3,333 93% 93% 92% 91%

9 Allen ISD 18,888 93% 93% 91% 90%

10 Frisco ISD 37,279 93% 93% 92% 89%

TAKS Passage Rate – Spring 2011

* Of 324 Districts with 2,000 or more students

Median Household Income

Source: American Community Survey 2011

5-year estimate (Lovejoy)

3-year estimate (Highland Park)

1-year estimate (Allen, McKinney, Collin County)

District Income

Highland Park ISD $171,045

Carroll ISD $166,188

Lovejoy ISD $117,721

Allen ISD $102,287

McKinney ISD $74,506

Collin County $82,237

Median Age

Source: American Community Survey 2011

5-year estimate (Lovejoy)

3-year estimate (Highland Park)

1-year estimate (Allen, McKinney, Collin County)

District Years Old

Lovejoy ISD 44.1

Carroll ISD 39.7

Allen ISD 36.1

Highland Park ISD 35.6

McKinney ISD 34.4

Collin County 35.3

Percentage of School-Aged Children (As a Percent of Total Population)

Source: American Community Survey 2011

5-year estimate (Lovejoy)

3-year estimate (Highland Park)

1-year estimate (Allen, McKinney, Collin County)

District Ages 5-17

Carroll ISD 30%

Lovejoy ISD 26%

Highland Park ISD 25%

McKinney ISD 20%

Allen ISD 19%

Collin County 21%

Median Travel Time to Work

Source: American Community Survey 2011

5-year estimate (Lovejoy)

3-year estimate (Highland Park)

1-year estimate (Allen, McKinney, Collin County)

District Minutes One Way

Lovejoy ISD 32.3

Carroll ISD 29.4

Allen ISD 27.7

McKinney ISD 27.1

Highland Park ISD 16.6

Collin County 27.2

Percent KN

of

Total

Enrollment

Fall 2012-13

Source: TEA

Data released April 2013

KN as a Proportion of Total Enrollment

Rank District Name

KN Enroll.:

2011-2012

Total Enroll.:

2011-2012% KN

1 ANNA ISD 264 2,527 10.4%

2 FORT STOCKTON ISD 232 2,406 9.6%

3 BIG SPRING ISD 401 4,195 9.6%

4 WHARTON ISD 204 2,137 9.5%

5 BROWNWOOD ISD 333 3,535 9.4%

6 ROYAL ISD 195 2,089 9.3%

7 LUBBOCK-COOPER ISD 428 4,633 9.2%

8 AUSTIN ISD 7,975 86,516 9.2%

9 PALESTINE ISD 303 3,289 9.2%

10 PORT ARTHUR ISD 841 9,132 9.2%

11 CORSICANA ISD 539 5,906 9.1%

12 PLAINVIEW ISD 530 5,820 9.1%13 MONTGPMERY ISD 1 0.9014 GRAPEVINE-COLLEYVILLE ISD 1 0.9015 CLEAR CREEK ISD 1 0.8916 DRIPPING SPRINGS ISD 1 0.89

324 CARROLL ISD 449 7,711 5.8%

325 HIDALGO ISD 189 3,307 5.7%

326 QUINLAN ISD 143 2,534 5.6%

327 LOVEJOY ISD 204 3,649 5.6%

328 FRIENDSWOOD ISD 318 6,005 5.3%

* Of 328 Districts with 2,000 or more students

Oct 2011% Chg 11-12 /

10-11 Oct 2012% Chg 12-13 /

11-12

EE 10 -52% 14 40%

KN 188 -1% 205 9%

1 225 -3% 200 -11%

2 242 6% 265 10%

3 267 2% 266 0%

4 289 4% 291 1%

5 296 7% 311 5%

6 297 0% 300 1%

7 325 16% 322 -1%

8 297 13% 324 9%

9 277 -5% 308 11%

10 294 4% 278 -5%

11 287 13% 283 -1%

12 246 6% 278 13%

Total 3,540 4.49% 3,645 2.97%

Historical

Growth

Trends

Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births

Private Schools

Current

Enrollment

From LISD in

KN+

Enrollment

in 5 yrs.

From LISD in

KN+

Allen Montessori Academy Inf-K 60 1 100 2

Brookhaven Montessori Academy Inf-K 90 1 120 6

Lucas Christian Academy KN-12th 396 40 500 50McKinney Christian Academy PK-12th 550 26 600 29McKinney Montessori Academy Inf-K 60 0 84 0Robert Muller Center for Living PK-8th 60 0 60 0School of Primrose Inf-K 146 0 180 0Southwest Academy PK-9th 0 0 0 0Twin Oaks Day School Inf-K 170 1 200 1

Total 69 88

Current Enrollment Projected 5 YearsGrades

Overall percentage

of LISD residents in

private schools: 1.87% 1.90%

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

Annual Employment Trends

6 Month Annual

Percent Percent

Change Change

City of Allen

Employment 43,773 44,671 45,030 0.80% 2.87%

Unemployment Rate 5.9 5.4 5.2

City of McKinney

Employment 63,437 64,738 65,257 0.80% 2.87%

Unemployment Rate 7.1 5.9 6.2

Collin County

Employment 415,398 423,916 427,320 0.80% 2.87%

Unemployment Rate 6.4 5.7 5.7

March

2013

September

2012

March

2012

Pie chart

Employment

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

Municipalities

in

Lovejoy

I.S.D.

Development

Density

% of District

Built-out 63%

Developing 9%

Undev. - w/plans 2%

Undev. - no plans 22%

Parks 4%

54” water line along Stacy Rd. will encourage residential development (Starfish Investments, Harper parcel, Molodow parcel)

Water line for Willow Springs Middle School will not allow intervening connections by others – no impact on future residential development

Wastewater line in Lucas for new WalMart – exclusively commercial uses – no impact on future residential development

Water and Wastewater Services

Stacy Rd. west of Country Club Rd. will be widened, and also re-aligned east of Country Club Rd. over to the undeveloped Molodow parcel (30-36 months until construction)

Lucas Rd. west to Angel Pkwy. will be widened (affecting undeveloped parcels near new Willow Springs Middle School)

No other major arterials are planned for improvements, other than out-of-District arterials with little impact

Future Transportation Improvements

Projected New Housing by City/Town

Lucas 723 58%

Fairview 407 33%

McKinney 89 7%

Allen 32 3%

Total 1,251

City/Town

Projected New

Housing Units

(2013-2022)

% of

Growth

2013-17 2017-22 2013-227B Brockdale Estates 61 136 1971 Serenity 41 0 416 Rockland Farms 40 0 40

4A Starfish Investment development 17 20 374B Broadmoor Estates 18 17 356 Stinson Highlands (DR Horton) 15 14 29

2B Tranquility Farms 24 0 24

4J Hooper parcel 6 16 226 Belmont Park (former Stinson Crossing) 16 3 19

New Housing OccupanciesSubdivision

Planning

Unit

Highest Growth Residential Developments

Projected

New Housing

Occupancies

2013 – 2022

Year Ending in

October: 

Total New

Housing

Units

2013 70

2014 108

2015 105

2016 113

2017 123

2018 139

2019 138

2020 139

2021 140

2022 156

2013-2017 549

2017-2022 712

2013-2022 1,251

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

Jan 2013

to

Oct 2017

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

Oct 2017

to

Oct 2022

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

Jan 2013

to

Oct 2022

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

Oct 2022

to

Build Out

YearSingle-Family

Housing Units

2013 Current Housing Units 4,526

Projected Growth (2013-2022) 1,251

2022 Projected Housing Units 5,777

Projected Growth (2022-Build-Out) 390

Build Out Projected Housing Units 6,167

Housing Units in Lovejoy ISD Current and Future

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

Ratios of Students per Household

Year Ratio Grades

2003-04 0.74 EE-6th

2007-08 0.77 EE-9th

2008-09 0.89 EE-10th (+ Allen ISD 11th-12th)

2010-11 0.84 EE-12th

2012-13 1.01 EE-12th

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

Model for Developing Student Projections

• New Housing Growth –

549 added housing occupancies by Oct. 2013

721 added housing occupancies by Oct. 2017

1,251 TOTAL ADDED OCCUPANCIES (10 Yrs)

• Ratios of Students per House

- Increased from 0.84 to 1.01 students per house

- One of highest in the State

• High quality of life measures and positive perception

of District pull new residents to LISD

Moderate Growth Scenario

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Build-Out

Enrollment 3,768 3,949 4,153 4,344 4,527 4,719 4,930 5,133 5,360 5,612 5,956

% Growth 3.38% 4.81% 5.15% 4.61% 4.21% 4.23% 4.48% 4.13% 4.42% 4.70% 6.41%

Growth 123 181 203 191 183 191 211 203 227 252 343

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot

Three Scenarios of Growth E

nro

llment

High Growth

Moderate

Growth

Low Growth

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

2007 2013 2022

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Long Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

Projections by PU maps

Projected

Resident

EE-4th

Grade

Students

EE-4th Students 446 452 488 501 545 572 602 634 667 700 736 780

% Utilization 74% 75% 81% 84% 91% 95% 100% 106% 111% 117% 123% 130%

Margin 154 148 112 99 55 28 -2 -34 -67 -100 -136 -180

EE-4th Students 437 439 447 455 482 497 515 531 550 566 584 613

% Utilization 73% 73% 75% 76% 80% 83% 86% 89% 92% 94% 97% 102%

Margin 163 161 153 145 118 103 85 69 50 34 16 -13

EE-4th Students 357 387 399 408 443 466 498 528 557 589 623 665

% Utilization 55% 60% 61% 63% 68% 72% 77% 81% 86% 91% 96% 102%

Margin 293 263 251 242 207 184 152 122 93 61 27 -15

20172016201520142013Current

2012

Hart

Lovejoy

Puster

Build-

Out20222021202020192018

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Intermediate and Middle School

Long Range Planning

5th-6th Students 611 636 645 694 687 684 758 794 832 874 917 971

% Utilization 72% 75% 76% 82% 81% 80% 89% 93% 98% 103% 108% 114%

Margin 239 214 205 156 163 166 92 56 18 -24 -67 -121

7th-8th Students 646 658 696 733 742 799 789 787 872 913 957 1,017

% Utilization 76% 77% 82% 86% 87% 94% 93% 93% 103% 107% 113% 120%

Margin 204 192 154 117 108 51 61 63 -22 -63 -107 -167

20172016201520142013

Sloan Creek

Willow Springs

Build-

Out20222021202020192018

Current

2012

High School

Long Range Planning

9th-12th Students 1,147 1,197 1,272 1,360 1,446 1,505 1,557 1,657 1,655 1,717 1,794 1,909

% Utilization 76% 80% 85% 91% 96% 100% 104% 110% 110% 114% 120% 127%

Margin 353 303 228 140 54 -5 -57 -157 -155 -217 -294 -409

202020192018Current

201220172016201520142013

Lovejoy High School

Build-

Out20222021

Lovejoy I.S.D. Demographic Update

May 13, 2013