Low Carbon Society Initiative

Professor Andrew Sentance, WBS23rd June 2009

https://go.warwick.ac.uk/lowcarbon

Introduction

1.5. To set up at least three new large interdisciplinary research centres which will sit alongside the already successful centres in the University

Vision 2015 Strategy1.To make Warwick an undisputed world leader in research and scholarship

Outline

• The challenge of the Low Carbon Society

• Key activities to date

• Next steps

Stabilising the global climate

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10

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50

60

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90

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

bal E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2e)

450ppm CO2e

500ppm CO2e (falling to450ppm CO2e in 2150)

550ppm CO2e

Business as Usual

50GtCO2e

70GtCO2e

65GtCO2e

Source: Stern Review

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8

6

4

2

2050200019501900 2100 23002200

Glo

bal

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

/yr)

CO2 Emissions targets in context

~ 8 GtC/yr now

~ 3 GtC/yr by 2050

Stabilisation at 450 ppmv requires a 60% cut in global CO2 emissions by 2050

..and continuous reductions beyond 2050……

Carbon emissions per head

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5

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15

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25

CO2 per capita, 2005 values

Source: OECD

2050 target2-2.5 T

Greenhouse gas emissions, by sourceGlobal GHG emissions in 2000 = 42GT CO2 equivalent

25%

13%

14%8%

18%

14%

3% 5%

Power

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Land use*

Agriculture*

Waste*

Other

Source: Stern Review (2006) * Non-energy emissions

Three big challenges

• “Decarbonisation” of power sector and transport

• Increasing energy efficiency of industry & buildings

• Cutting non-energy emissions from agriculture, changes in land use & waste

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”

Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, 1776

Building the “low carbon economy”

Technology

PoliticalFrameworks

Behavioural & Structural

Change

EconomicInstruments

Low CarbonEconomy

Decarbonisation of power sector

• Conventional renewables

• Nuclear power

• Carbon capture and storage

• Bio-fuels and bio-mass

• Energy storage schemes

CO2 emissions by UK transport modeGrams per passenger km

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Car Rail -electric

Rail -diesel

Bus Air -longhaul

Air -shorthaul

Air -domestic

Current 2050 potential

Sources: Committee on Climate Change, 2008; CfIT (2007); and author’s estimates. Note that 2050 figures are illustrative – based on 90% decarbonised electricity

Potential size of carbon markets

Extending EU ETS to power and industrial sectors in Top 20 countries would create a market of US$90-350 bn

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10000

12000

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20000

European Union(25)

United States ofAmerica

China, India,Mexico, Brazil,South Africa

(+5)

G7 EU25, Jap, Aus,Can, USA

OECD Top 20 Globalemitters

Mill

ion

tonn

es C

O2

emis

sion

s, 2

002

Total emissions from fossil fuels

Emissions from power and industrial sectors (estimated)

Activities (1)Support development of “Research ideas” across campus - workshops on:

Game theory in climate change mitigation

Global emissions trading

Energy trading

Role of social norms in building a low carbon society

Adoption of low carbon vehicle technologies

Current trends in photovoltaic energy systems

Activities (2)• Steering group to co-ordinate and develop

activities, including research proposals• Linkages with other related centres and

initiatives (eg WISER, Warwick HRI)• Energy and Low Carbon Seminar series• Workshops with Intellect (IT industry)• ESRC Seminar Series• Conference: “Challenges in the Transition to a

Low Carbon Society” – 13/14 July 2009

Conference: “Challenges in the Transition to a Low Carbon Society”

• Exploring the technological, economic, social and political challenges of moving to a Low Carbon Society

• Key sessions – vision, energy, transport, technology, strategy/behaviour

• Closing panel with key regional business executives and policy-makers

• 13-14th July 2009, Scarman Conference Centre• 25 speakers and panellists from academia, business

and policy-making• Places are still available- please register at:

https://go.warwick.ac.uk/lowcarbon/conference

Next steps• Build new research partnerships across Warwick

research community

• Develop regional links e.g. AWM, local policy makers, other Midlands Universities

• Establish a business “network”

• Agree research themes and other activities

• Identify key sources of funding

• Proposal to University in 2009H2 for carrying forward this initiative

Coming soon - Warwick Footprint

• A new environmental initiative, open to all members of the University community

• Website launching soon– Make a pledge– Submit your idea– Find out more about environmental research at Warwick

• Provides an opportunity for staff and students to do their bit to make Warwick a greener place to work and study