low risk trading myth

41

Upload: netpickstrading

Post on 09-Jul-2015

179 views

Category:

Education


4 download

DESCRIPTION

http://www.premiertraderuniversity.com/ptucourse -- PTU Trading Course! I recently received an email - marketing email really - about a Low Risk - High Reward trading strategy. There's no question that the words "Low Risk - High Reward" caught the eyes of more than a few people. Which trader doesn't want to to get involved with low risk trading coupled with a high reward? The problem is that low risk has a few meanings and not knowing the difference can get your trading account in a whole heap of trouble. We can say that in a low risk trading setup we enter a trade with a stop fixed as a low percentage of a trading account. The question then becomes what is the high risk percentage on a trade? For me, low risk translates to amount risked on the trade and would depend on the setup I am using. An example would be a failure test of an important prior high or low on my trading time frame. http://www.netpicks.com/myth-low-risk-trading/

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Low Risk Trading Myth
Page 2: Low Risk Trading Myth

I recently received an email - marketing email really - about a Low Risk - High Reward trading strategy.

There's no question that the words

"Low Risk - High Reward" caught the eyes of more than a few people.

Page 3: Low Risk Trading Myth

Which trader doesn't want to to get involved with low risk trading coupled

with a high reward?

Page 4: Low Risk Trading Myth

The problem is that low risk has a few meanings and not knowing the difference can get your trading

account in a whole heap of trouble.

Page 5: Low Risk Trading Myth

We can say that in a low risk trading setup we enter a trade with a stop fixed as a low

percentage of a trading account.

The question then becomes what is the high risk percentage on a trade?

Page 6: Low Risk Trading Myth

For me, low risk translates to amount risked on the trade and would depend

on the setup I am using.

An example would be a failure test of an important prior high or low on my

trading time frame.

Page 7: Low Risk Trading Myth

Check the following chart out.

Page 8: Low Risk Trading Myth
Page 9: Low Risk Trading Myth

The grey dotted line (a) represents a high off to the left of the chart that

met my criteria for an important turning point.

Page 10: Low Risk Trading Myth

The green candle market (b) indicates price breaching this level and while

buyers drove it higher, sellers stepped in strong to close well of the highs.

Page 11: Low Risk Trading Myth

The red candle (c) closes back inside (indicating failure of this break).

Page 12: Low Risk Trading Myth

The entry candle (d) is simply showing the entry as soon as candle (c) closes

Page 13: Low Risk Trading Myth

The exit (e) marks the close of the trade at a structure point.

Page 14: Low Risk Trading Myth

This is a nice and clean trade entry however many times price will breach the high of the (a) candle where the

stop is located.

Page 15: Low Risk Trading Myth

Price will then turn around and print another (b) candle giving another

entry that plays out to target.

Page 16: Low Risk Trading Myth

The stop out and reverse is simply the same pattern playing out in a higher

time frame.

Page 17: Low Risk Trading Myth

The expected stop out and reverse is accounted for and the first trade is always

entered at 1/2 of the usual position.

Page 18: Low Risk Trading Myth

This makes it a low risk trade in comparison to other types of setups

because the dollars risked is less.

But...I doubt that is what is meant by the marketing emails.

Page 19: Low Risk Trading Myth

From some of the material, the marketer was implying that the risk of

taking a losing trade was low.

Page 20: Low Risk Trading Myth

Any method has a random distribution of win and losses.....so much so that a

former trading mentor of mine

Page 21: Low Risk Trading Myth

( who has since retired from trading and now just enjoys life )

said he expected every single trade to fail!

Page 22: Low Risk Trading Myth

You can never know if your next trade is going to be a winner.

(if you could with 100% who wouldn't load up the boat???)

Page 23: Low Risk Trading Myth

All we can know is that our setups have a positive expectancy and we step up to the plate every time our

setup presents itself. We want to take advantage of our expectancy and be

involved in anything that fits our trading criteria.

Page 24: Low Risk Trading Myth

The marketing material also puts "Low Risk Trading" right along side "High

Reward trading" in the thought process so it I take it that you will

make multiple returns of your X risk per trade.

Page 25: Low Risk Trading Myth

Bold statement but pretty common in many emails that cross my inbox

hyping the next big trading system.

So what is the trick for these "low risk" trades?

Page 26: Low Risk Trading Myth

1. Consistent low % risked per trade? 2. Consistent % risk and tight stop?

Page 27: Low Risk Trading Myth

I am not privy to their trading course so perhaps they suggest an extremely

low fixed risk percentage of your trading account.

Page 28: Low Risk Trading Myth

Low risk % means a lower dollar amount lost but also a lower dollar

amount won.

Page 29: Low Risk Trading Myth

If that is the case, then you certainly would need, depending on your

account size, serious moves in the market to give you a high dollar

reward result. High dollar reward is relative to your expectations and

available trading capital.

Page 30: Low Risk Trading Myth

For me though, what I would consider high reward may be much bigger/smaller than yours.

Page 31: Low Risk Trading Myth

What if they suggest a 2% fixed risk and tight stops?

This would certainly give you a good

position size in relation to your account.

Page 32: Low Risk Trading Myth

However, if the stop is too tight, how many times do you get flushed out

before the High Reward trade kicks in?

Page 33: Low Risk Trading Myth

This can effectively drain your account through a thousand cuts through commissions not to

mentions slips and gaps.

Page 34: Low Risk Trading Myth

Perhaps the only way to get to the bottom of the "LRHR trading" they promise is to

ask them what they mean.

So I did.

Page 35: Low Risk Trading Myth

I was told that the trades are high probability so there is a low risk of

not making money.

Page 36: Low Risk Trading Myth

It wasn't worth going into random distributions, outlier events, the many

variables that make up the risks in trading, or anything else with them.

Page 37: Low Risk Trading Myth

As a consumer who may be looking into trading as a part-time endeavor or

even taking a serious run at it, be cautious with these types of emails.

Page 38: Low Risk Trading Myth

They promise success but ignore the realities of trading:

Page 39: Low Risk Trading Myth

1. It's hard. 2. Very hard. 3. It rewards very few.

Page 40: Low Risk Trading Myth

There is nothing low risk about trading. The best you can do is start

yourself off in your trading career under the right conditions.

Page 41: Low Risk Trading Myth