loyola - politics da

8/11/2019 Loyola - Politics DA

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Debt Ceiling Politics


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NOTESI was in the middle of cutting a focus scenario but I decided that it would be easier to win the linkdebate using a PC scenario so keep in mind, the focus scenario is not developed enough to be acredible block optionOn the flipside, note that there are advantages and disadvantages to reading focus

- Winners win is not responsive and most likely their link turns will not be either- Hard to win as a NB to non-intl CPs

This is a very strategic DA to run in that it probably turns at least a huge chunk of the casei.e. debt ceiling is key to funding economic engagement/aid in our foreign policy ergo TURNS CASEARGS MUST BE A LARGE PART OF THE BLOC

This file must constantly be updated at least until mid-October politics updates will be assigned

systematically

SOPHS: When I assign you Politics Updates, it means look at this fucking list and cut the relevant cards,dont just add more useless and unnecessary camp cards into the files (that also applies to case negs) When you have properly done so, just put the necessary text in green instead of red (shown)

This file could use some more:- Turns case (of course)

o Country Spec/LA Relationso Agricultureo Democracyo Soft Powero Economyo Plan spec

- Country Spec Focus linkso Cubao Mexicoo Venezuela


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Top Level


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1NC PC Scenario

Debt will narrowly pass Obamas leverage is key Kapur, 9/9 --- TPMs senior congressional reporter and Supreme Court correspondent(9/9/2013, Sahil, Is House GOP Backing Down In Debt Limit Fight? http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/09/house-gop-cantor-memo-debt-ceiling-cr-sequester-immigration.php)

House Republicans are taming members expectations ahead of the debt limit showdown, signaling that

they may not be able to extract significant concessions from Democrats . A Friday memo to GOPmembers by Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)says the House will act to prevent a default on our obligationsbefore the mid -October deadline the Obama administration has established . House Republicans, he says, will demandfiscal reforms and pro-growth policies which put us on a path to balance in ten years in exchange for another increase in the debt limit. The language is vague intentionally so, in order to

maintain wiggle room for Republicans to avert a disastrous debt default. President Barack Obama has vowed not to pay a ransom to ensure theU.S. can meet its obligations . If and when they do cave, Republicans will be hard-pressed to showtheir base they got something in return for raising the debt ceiling. In January, they got Senate Democrats to agree to pass a non-binding budget resolution. This time around, the possibilities for symbolic concessions range from a doomed Senate vote to delay or defund Obamacare or instructions to initiate the process of

tax reform. There are a number of demands rank-and-file Republicans have urged leaders to make whichcould genuinely complicate the battle , such as dollar-for- dollar spending cuts or unwinding Obamacare. Cantors memo mentioned neither. GOP membershave also called on leadership not to bring up any debt limit bill that lacks the support of half the conference. Boehner has nt committed to this and Cantor didnt mention it in his memo.

There are several reasons Republicans will have a hard time extracting concessions. Back in January, whenObama held firm and refused to negotiate on the debt limit, Republicans folded and agreed tosuspend the debt ceiling without substantial concessions but rather symbolic ones. And due to deep divisions within the conference, HouseRepublicans will face enormous challenges in rounding up 218 votes to pass any conceivable debt limit hike. The partys top priority is to cut safety-net programs like Social Security andMedicare. But theres no internal consensus on what to cut. And Republicans, whose constituents are disproportionately older, have generally refused to vote on entitlement cuts without

bipartisan cover from Democrats. In this case Democrats are highly unlikely to give it to them, which complicates their task of passing a debt limit bill. The Cantor memomakes it all but official that Republicans wont seek to defund Obamacare in the fiscal battles . The strategy,pushed by conservative activists, to withhold support for keeping the government running after Sept. 30 unless Democrats agre e to defund Obamacare. Instead it vows to hold a series ofstrategic votes throughout the fall to dismantle, defun d, and delay Obamacare. The memo says Republicans will continue to pursue the strategy of systematically derailing this tra in wreckand replacing it with a patient- centered system. The GOPs big stand in the fiscal battles will be to force Obama to acc ept the lower spending levels ordered by sequestration automaticspending cuts enacted in 2011 in a measure to keep the government funded. Here Republicans will refuse to cede and the White House has not suggested itll veto a bill that maintainsseque ster spending levels, although Obama wants to cut a deal to replace the sequester. In signing a CR at sequester levels, Cantor writes, the President would be endorsing a level ofspending that wipes away all the increases he and Congressional Democrats made while they were in charge and returns us to a pre- 2008 level of discretionary spending.

Calling in a favor on the plan burns up Obamas limited leverage with HouseRepublicans PC is finite and winners dont win Moore, 9/10 --- Guardian's US finance and economics editor(Heidi, 9/10/2013, Syria: the great distraction; Obama is focused on a conflict abroad, but the fight he should be gearing up for is with Congress on America's economic security,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/10/obama-syria-what-about-sequester))

Before President Obama speaks to the nation about Syria tonight, take a look at what this fall will look like inside America. There are 49 million people in the country who suffered inadequateaccess to food in 2012, leaving the percentage of "food-insecure" Americans at about one-sixth of the US population. At the same time, Congress refused to pass food-stamp legislation this

summer, pushing it off again and threatening draconian cuts. The country will crash into the debt ceiling in mid-October, whichwould be an economic disaster , especially with a government shutdown looming at the same time.

These are deadlines that Congress already learned two years ago not to toy with , but memoriesappear to be preciously short. The Federal Reserve needs a new chief in three months, someone who will help the country confront its raging unemployment crisisthat has left 12 million people without jobs. The president has promised to choose a warm body within the next three weeks, despite the fact that his top pick, Larry Summers, would likelyspark an ugly confirmation battle the "fight of the century," according to some with a Congress already unwilling to do the President's bidding. Congress was supposed to pass a farm billthis summer, but declined to do so even though the task is already two years late. As a result, the country has no farm bill, leaving agricultural subsidies up in the air, farmers uncertain aboutwhat their financial picture looks like, and a potential food crisis on the horizon. The two main housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in limbo for four years and aredesperately in need of reform that should start this fall, but there is scant attention to the problem. These are the problems going unattended by the Obama administration while his aidesand cabinet members have been wasting the nation's time making the rounds on television and Capitol Hill stumping for a profoundly unpopular war. The fact that all this chest-beating wasfor naught, and an easy solution seems on the horizon, belies the single-minded intensity that the Obama White House brought to its insistence on bombing Syria. More than one wag hassuggested, with the utmost reason, that if Obama had brought this kind of passion to domestic initiatives, the country would be in better condition right now. As it is, public policy isembarrassingly in shambles at home while the administration throws all of its resources and political capital behind a widely hated plan to get involved in a civil war overseas. The upshot forthe president may be that it's easier to wage war with a foreign power than go head-to-head with the US Congress, even as America suffers from neglect. This is the paradox that PresidentObama is facing this fall, as he appears to turn his back on a number of crucial and urgent domestic initiatives in order to spend all of his meager political capital on striking Syria. Syria doespresent a significant humanitarian crisis, which has been true for the past two years that the Obama administration has completely ignored the atrocities of Bashar al-Assad. Two years is alsoroughly the same amount of time that key domestic initiatives have also gone ignored as Obama and Congress engage in petty battles for dominance and leave the country to run itself on astarvation diet imposed by sequestration cuts. Leon Panetta tells the story of how he tried to lobby against sequestration only to be told: Leon, you don't understand. The Congress isresigned to failure. Similarly, those on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, those working at government agencies, and voters themselves have become all too practiced at ignoring the
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/09/house-gop-cantor-memo-debt-ceiling-cr-sequester-immigration.phphttp://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/09/house-gop-cantor-memo-debt-ceiling-cr-sequester-immigration.phphttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/10/obama-syria-what-about-sequester)http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/10/obama-syria-what-about-sequester)http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/09/house-gop-cantor-memo-debt-ceiling-cr-sequester-immigration.php


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determined incompetence of those in Washington. Political capital the ability to horse-trade and win political favors from areceptive audience is a finite resource in Washington. Pursuing misguided policies takes up time ,

but it also eats up credibility in asking for the next favor . It's fair to say that congressional Republicans , particularly inthe House, have no love for Obama and are likely to oppose anything he supports. That's exactly the reasonthe White House should stop proposing policies as if it is scattering buckshot and focus with intensity

on the domestic tasks it wants to accomplish, one at a time . The president is scheduled to speak six times this week, mostly aboutSyria. That includes evening news interviews, an address to the nation, and numerous other speeches. Behind the scenes, he is calling members of Congress to get them to fall into line.Secretary of State John Kerry is omnipresent, so ubiquitous on TV that it may be easier just to get him his own talk show called Syria Today. It would be a treat to see White House aideslobbying as aggressively and on as many talk shows for a better food stamp bill, an end to the debt-ceiling drama, or a solution to the senseless sequestration cuts, as it is on what is clearly

a useless boondoggle in Syria. There's no reason to believe that Congress can have an all-consuming debate aboutSyria and then, somehow refreshed, return to a domestic agenda that has been as chaotic and urgent as any in recent memory. ThePresident should have judged his options better. As it is, he should now judge his actions better.

Entertaining GOP negotiating demands will drag the process out and trigger economiccollapseLobello, 8/27 --- business editor at TheWeek.com (Carmel, 8/27/2013, How the looming debt ceiling fight could screw up the U.S. economy; Yup, this is happening again,http://theweek.com/article/index/248775/how-the-looming-debt-ceiling-fight-could-screw-up-the-us-economy))

Ready for more debt-ceiling drama? The Treasury Department said Monday it would hit its borrowing limit in mid-October, which means that Congress will need to raise its $16.7 trillion debtceiling to pay the nation's bills. The sooner-than-expected deadline comes at an inconvenient moment, because Congress is already facing a budget deadline for the stopgap "continuingresolution" that finances the federal government, which is set to run out September 30. Failure to come to an agreement would trigger a government shutdown. Having two big deadlines fall

two weeks apart could be a recipe for disaster. Republicans, led by Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), have been musing about the possibility ofusing the debt ceiling, instead of a government shutdown, as leverage to delay the implementation ofObamaCare . But as Ezra Klein put it in The Washington Post, "Trading a government shutdown for a debt-ceiling breach is like trading the flu for septic shock": AnythingRepublicans might fear about a government shutdown is far more terrifying amidst a debt-ceilingbreach. The former is an inconvenience. The latter is a global financial crisis . Its the difference between what happened in1995, when the government did shutdown, and what happened in 2008, when global markets realized a bedrock investment they thought was safe (housing in that case, U.S. treasuries in this

one) was full of risk. [The Washington Post] Indeed , a debt ceiling debate in 2011 that went on to the last possible minute

had real economic consequences , leading Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U nited S tates'

credit rating. The move "left a clear and deep dent in US economic and market data," said Matt Phillipsat Quartz . Investors pulled huge amounts of cash from the stock market, and consumer confidence was hurt as well. When the same problem cropped up again in May 2012, becauseCongress failed to reach a long-term deal, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers in Bloomberg explained how confidence plummeted the first time around: [Confidence] went into freefall asthe political stalemate worsened through July. Over the entire episode, confidence declined more than it did following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008. After July 31,when the deal to break the impasse was announced, consumer confidence stabilized and began a long, slow climb that brought it back to its starting point almost a year later. [Bloomberg]

This morning, Wolfers had this to say: Treasury Secretary Jack Lew visited CNBC Tuesday morning to reiterate President Obama's promise not to go down he same road. "Thepresident has made it clear: We're not going to negotiate over the debt limit," Lew said. He also explained why in a letterto Boehner Monday morning. "Protecting the full faith and credit of the United States is the responsibility of Congress, because only Congress can extend the nation's borrowing authority," hewrote. "Failure to meet that responsibility would cause irreparable harm to the American economy."

Economic collapse causes nuclear war economic collapse causes military drawdown,leads to nuclear weapons use.Harris, Cambridge Ph.D , and Burrows, NICs Long Range Analysis Unit, 9

(Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) andJennifer, member of the NICs Long Range Analysis Unit Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of t heFinancial Crisis http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf, DateAccessed:7/20)

Increased Potential for Global ConflictOf course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersectingand interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended

consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever . While we continue to
http://theweek.com/article/index/248775/how-the-looming-debt-ceiling-fight-could-screw-up-the-us-economy)http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdfhttp://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdfhttp://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdfhttp://theweek.com/article/index/248775/how-the-looming-debt-ceiling-fight-could-screw-up-the-us-economy)


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believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmfuleffects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on thesustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to thinkthat this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century . For that reason, the waysin which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatileeconomic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood thatterrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorisms appealwill decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced . Forthose terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the worlds

most dangerous capabilities within their reach . Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long establishedgroups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated

attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in theabsence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The mostdangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almostcertainly be the Middle East . Although Irans acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Irancould lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquireadditional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stabledeterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a

nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintendedescalation and broader conflict i f clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The closeproximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranianmissile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of animpending nuclear attack . The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flighttimes, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentiallyleading to escalating crises . 36 Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, couldreemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices.Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worstcase, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energyresources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime . Even actions short

of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups andmodernization efforts, such as Chinas and Indias development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for thesecountries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup ofregional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves , but italso will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer inAsia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasinglydifficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.


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increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation inprotecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing waterresources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.


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2NC Overview

DA outweighs and turns case

a) the plan causes an immediate economic collapse leading to a drawdown of USmilitary presence which is key to preventing Middle Eastern pre-emptivenuclear wars and conflict escalation in hotspots in the South China Sea andTaiwan Strait thats 1NC Harris and Burrows

b) we control the internal link to their impacts only maintaining the US economyaccesses US primacy and successful foreign policy including all forms ofeconomic engagement its the only way to fund your plan means only astrong domestic economy maintains all vital aspects of international relations the economic system, security alliances, free trade, democracy promotion, allare maintained only by an economy that sustains the funding economiccollapse acts as a filter to all impacts

Default kills credibility, international relations, foreign investment and US leadershipWhitney 11 (Mike, Staff at Information Clearing House, May 9, http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article28060.htm)

It matters because the bond market supports the dollar, and the dollar is the foundation uponwhich the empire is built . When UST's lose their special role as the benchmark for pricing financial assets, the whole unipolarsystem will begin to teeter. In other words, attracting foreign capital to UST's is a lot more important to themaintenance of the US imperium, than winning wars in Iraq or Afghanistan . A flight from UST's willaccelerate America's decline and constrain its ability to project power around the world. So, we shouldn't underestimate the significanceof the debt ceiling drama. The stakes couldn't be higher. If congress botches the budget deal, we're likelyto see major dislocations in the world's largest and most liquid market, USTs. Here's an excerptfrom an article by Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Board of Governors at the Fed, whoexplains what will happen if confidence in USTs begins to wane : "The Fed's increased presence in the market forlong-term Treasury securities also poses nontrivial risks. The Treasury market is special. It plays a unique role in the global financial system.

It is a corollary to the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency . The prices assigned to Treasury securities--the risk-free rate-- are the foundation from which the price of virtually every asset in the world iscalculated . As the Fed's balance sheet expands, it becomes more of a price maker than a price taker in the Treasury market. And ifmarket participants come to doubt these prices--or their reliance on these prices proves fleeting--risk premiums across asset classes andgeographies could move unexpectedly. The shock that hit the financial markets in 2008 upon the imminent failures of Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac gives some indication of the harm that can be done when assets perceived to be relatively riskless turn out not to be." ("The

New Malaise", Kevin Warsh, Wall Street Journal) Warsh has every reason to be concerned, Congress is unwisely putting thevery credibility of the United States on the line. Remember, the US does not keep undergroundbunkers loaded with gold bullion to meet its obligations. It depends on the confidence of foreigncentral banks and investors to maintain the illusion of solvency. Once that confidence runs out,then... POOF... the game is over. The US will be unable to maintain its preeminent role in theglobal order. The empire will wither.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article28060.htmhttp://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article28060.htm


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2NC UQ Wall

The shutdown will be narrowly avoided now as the GOP is willing but time matters thats 1NC Kapur - their ev only cites Syria which was resolved and conservatives with

political incentivesCongress will successfully avert a government shutdown now, but time is super tightFox News , 9-11 -2013, House pulls spending bill amid backlash as government shutdown looms,http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/11/house-leaders-pull-temporary-spending-bill-after-conservative-backlash/House Republican leaders pulled their plan Wednesday to temporarily fund the federal government after rank-and-file party members said it sidestepped defunding ObamaCare. The action further narrowedCongress time to strike a budget deal before an Oct. 1 government shutdown . House Speaker John Boehner and his teampulled the plan, which could have gotten a full chamber vote as early as Thursday, after a conservative backlash led by the Tea Party movementand Heritage Action for America. The plan essentially called for the House to vote on defunding ObamaCare and the temporary spending bill,then send the package to the Democrat-controlled Senate, which almost certainly would have jettisoned the defund part and allowed the

chambers to negotiate on a clean funding bill. The Ruling Elite is up to it again, the Tea Party Patriots group said Wednesday. They wantyou to think they have voted for defunding ObamaCare. But its another shell game. Meanwhile, Congress must also work on several otherpressing issues, especially agreeing to increase the debt ceiling, which the government could hit as soon as mid-October, according to a recentTreasury Department assessment. Boehner defended his defund-spending plan Tuesday, saying his chamber has already voted 40 times to

defund, repeal and change ObamaCare, so the Senate must now take up the fight. Although Boehner pulled the bill because hedidn t have the votes , sources tell Fox News the speaker has no intention of changing the plan and mightrevisit it next week -- after members realize its strengths. Meanwhile members from both parties appearoptimistic about avoiding a partial government shutdown, despite the looming deadline and thepotential for another internal House struggle . We've got some time left , Kentucky Republican Rep. Hal Rogers,chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, told Fox News. It's not time to panic. The postponement of a Capitol Hillvote on a military strike on Syria will indeed eliminate the related hearings and classified briefings that slowed work onother pending issues , including immigration reform, the Farm Bill and whether to limit the extent to which the National Security Agencycan collect data on Americans in its efforts to thwart terrorism.

Shutdown will be averted now despite Obamacare backlashJonathan Strong , 9-11 -2013, "House Leaders to Delay CR Vote," NRO,http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/358243/house-leaders-delay-cr-vote-jonathan-strongHouse leadership has decided to delay the vote on a bill funding the government to next week amid asmall rebellion from conservatives who want to use the measure for a do-or-die fight on repealing Obamacare .While the bill has faced criticism from conservatives, leadership aides are downplaying the significance of the delay ,noting that Majority Leader Eric Cantor only yesterday unveiled his plan for the continuing resolution bill to the full GOPconference. Getting anything this big accomplished in 72 hours is always tough and we just need acouple extra days to dot the is and cross the ts , a House GOP leadership aide says. Conversations are ongoing.

Were making progress, a second Republican says.

House will avert shutdown now theyll punt Obamacare fight to the Debt Ceiling David M. Drucker , 9-11 -2013, "Conservatives float new plan to delay Obamacare by one year,"Washington Examiner, http://washingtonexaminer.com/conservatives-float-new-plan-to-delay-obamacare-by-one-year/article/2535609?custom_click=rss
http://washingtonexaminer.com/conservatives-float-new-plan-to-delay-obamacare-by-one-year/article/2535609?custom_click=rsshttp://washingtonexaminer.com/conservatives-float-new-plan-to-delay-obamacare-by-one-year/article/2535609?custom_click=rsshttp://washingtonexaminer.com/conservatives-float-new-plan-to-delay-obamacare-by-one-year/article/2535609?custom_click=rsshttp://washingtonexaminer.com/conservatives-float-new-plan-to-delay-obamacare-by-one-year/article/2535609?custom_click=rss


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House conservatives are coalescing around an alternative plan that would delay implementation ofObamacare by one year and use the money saved to restore the sequester-mandated spending cuts, in exchange for approving either amust-pass budget bill or legislation to raise the debt ceiling . The concept was hatched by conservative House Republicansdisappointed with a GOP leadership proposal that would send to the Senate a budget bill that funds the government beyond Sept. 30 butallows the Democratic chamber to approve that spending while simultaneously voting down an attached amendment stripping all funding forthe Affordable Care Act. Conservative activists are pushing House Republicans to leverage a government shutdown as a means to defundObamacare. House conservatives are sympathetic to this s trategy, which involves passing a budget that defunds Obamacare and attempts to

pin the blame for the inevitable government shutdown on President Obama. But even these Republicans recognize the politicalrisk of a government shutdown, and they are now trying to devise an alternative to the leadership proposalthat would still cut Obamacare . My take is, a consensus is all beginning to build , Rep. John Fleming, R -La., saidWednesday as he exited a closed-door meeting of the Republican Study Committee, a group of conservative House Republicans. HouseMajority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., attended the meeting, but did not address RSC members, those present said. Republican leaders cancelled avote on their Obamacare proposal this week, acknowledging that they didn't have the votes needed to clear the House. RSC meetings can beraucous and emotive, with caucus members occasionally venting their unhappiness with leadership and its various plans. But members exitingWednes days conclave described the discussion as constructive, an attempt to thread the needle between GOP leaders desire to avo id apolitically risky government shutdown and conservative demands that the upcoming fiscal negotiations be used to block implementation of

Obamacare, which will accelerate in October. The conservative alternative to delay Obamacare by a year and restore the sequester-related spending cuts could be part of the government funding bill or the debt ceiling legislation. But House BudgetChairman Paul Ryan , R-Wis., made a compelling case for using the debt ceiling legislation to negotiate theObamacare delay, rather than the budget bill favored by Tea Party activists, according to one Republican who attended the RSCmeeting. That is better ground for us to fight on, said this GOP member. Meanwhile, the GOP would likely jumpstart negotiations to raise thefederal government's $16 trillion borrowing limit, which the Obama administration said will be reached between Oct. 18 to Nov. 5. Republicansmight also choose to immediately pass a b ill that was based on the conservative alternative in attempt to put the pressure to avoid breachingthe debt ceiling on Obama and Senate Democrats. Were trying to find the sweet spot and do whats right for America, Rep. Jeff Duncan, R -

S.C., said. "Republicans want to keep the government open; were not advocating for a shutdown."

Congress will agree to a short-term budget extension to avoid default nowOman Tribune, 9-2, 13,http://www.omantribune.com/index.php?page=news&id=150996&heading=Americas

WASHINGTON A vote in Congress over whether to launch US attacks against Syria is expected to wreak collateral damage - leaving too littletime on Capitol Hill to deal with fast-approaching fall deadlines to fund government agencies and raise the debt limit. That increases the

likelihood that US lawmakers will agree to a short-term government funding measure to get them throughthe fall, postponing for another da y any broader deal or big showdowns. The House of Representatives had previouslyscheduled only nine legislative days in September after they return from summer recess on September 9, prompting analysts to view this asbarely enough to pass government funding legislation in time to avoid a federal shutdown as the new fiscal year starts October 1. But nowmuch of that time is likely to be eaten up with a contentious debate over authorising the use of military force to punish Syria, analystssay. With Republicans and Democrats still deeply divided on how to shrink US debt and federal deficits, the odds for a comprehensiveagreement that replaces sequester spending cuts and lifts the de bt ceiling have fallen dramatically. Syria has really scrambled an incredibly

crowded calendar, said Chris Krueger, a political analyst with Guggenheim Securities in Washington. I think you have to say that thechance of a short-term extension has increased .
http://www.omantribune.com/index.php?page=news&id=150996&heading=Americashttp://www.omantribune.com/index.php?page=news&id=150996&heading=Americas


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Link Uniqueness (General)

Obama is ignoring Latin America trade and engagement are decliningOppenheimer 5-8 (Andres Oppenheimer is a Miami Herald syndicated columnist and a member of

The Miami Herald team that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize. He is the author of Castro's Final Hour;Bordering on Chaos, Cronicas de heroes y bandidos, Ojos vendados, Cuentos Chinos and most recently,Saving the Americas. Andres Oppenheimer: What Obama didnt say about Latin America. MiamiHerald. http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/08/3387818/andres-oppenheimer-obama-should.html)Ive read with great attention President Barack Obama s article in The Miami Herald earlier this week on how to improve U.S. relations withLatin America. It was pretty disappointing. The article, headlined Improving our Partnership and published after Obamas re turn from a trip toMexico and Costa Rica, sa ys that this is a moment of great promise for our hemisphere and is full of feel -good talk about the future of the

Americas. But, sadly, it showed the absence of any U.S. plans to drastically expand trade ties with LatinAmerica like the Obama administration has done with Asia and Europe or any sign that, in hissecond term, Obama will pay greater attention to this hemisphere . Before we get into what Obama should do, letstake a quick look at the facts. In his article, Obama stated that about 40 percent of U.S. exports are currently going to Latin America, and thatthese exports are growing at a faster pace than U.S. shipments to the rest of the world. Also, Obama celebrated that the U.S. Congress is finallyclose to approving comprehensive immigratio n reform. While thats a U.S. domestic issue, it would have a positive economic impact on Mexicoand Central America, since millions of newly legalized immigrants would be able to visit their native countries, and would most likely be sending

more money to their families back home. But here are some of the facts that Obama failed to mention in his article: U.S. total tradewith Latin America has actually fallen as a percentage of total U.S. trade over the past decade. While 39percent of overall U.S. trade was with the Western Hemisphere in 2000, that percentage fell to 38 percent in 2012, according to U.S.

Department of Commerce data. Despite Obama s May 23, 2008, campaign promise to launch a new alliance of the Americas, he hasnot started any major hemispheric free trade initiative. By comparison, every recent U.S. president had started or atleast tried to start a hemisphere- wide trade deal. Obama has launched the Trans-Pacific Partnership free tradetalks with mostly Asian countries, and a similar Trans-Atlantic Partnership free trade negotiation withthe 27-member European Union, but has not announced any plans for a Trans-American Partnership. Granted, he has helped ratify free trade deals with Colombia and Panama, which had been signed by his predecessor. And, sure, the Trans-Pacific Partnership plan includes a few Latin American countries, such as Mexico, Peru and Chile, but they are a minority within the proposednew bloc. In his May 2 trip to Mexico, Obama failed to meet Mexicos request to be included in the U.S. -proposed Trans-Atlantic partnershipfree trade talks with the European Union. The Mexican governments had asked that Mexico and Canada be included in the Trans-AtlanticPartnership plan, so that the proposed deal could become a North American-European Union deal. But the White House response was, not yet. Despite Obamas 2011 announcement of a plan to increase to 100,000 the number of Latin American students in U.S . colleges, and to 100,000the number of U.S. students in Latin American universities his most ambitious initiative for the region progress on the project has beenslow. The plan calls for significant private sector funding, but Obama has invested little time, or political capital, in it. Fund-raising has been left

in charge of the State Department, whose boss Secretary of State John Kerry has shown scant interest in LatinAmerica.

Obama will not increase US economic relations to Latin AmericaMike Allison 5/2/ 13 associate professor in the political science department at the University ofScranton in Pennsylvania US President Barack Obama Returns to Latin America http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/04/2013430105115612555.html

As a result of these issues, the leaders and people of Central America as well as Mexico are highlyinterested in what the President has to say about comprehensive immigration reform .Guatemala will also be interested in learning whether there has been any progress on its request for Temporary Protected Status (TPS). ElSalvador, on the other hand, awaits word on whether TPS for its citizens will be extended past its expiry in September. How the US treatspeople, whether documented or not, within its borders is a test of democracy and human rights. However, as in Mexico, Obama needs tosomehow make the strengthening of democracy and the promotion of human rights priorities in the US' relations with Central America.Honduras has been unable to recover from the June 2009 coup that removed President Manuel Zelaya from office; with the highest homiciderate in the world, police officers, lawyers, teachers, journalists, taxi drivers, gays and lesbians, and democracy and human rights activists arenow being killed at alarming rates. The executive, legislative and judicial branches are all at loggerheads with one another and are perhapsmore the problem than the solution. While popular, President Daniel Ortega continues to erode democratic structures in Nicaragua following

his questionably legal re-election in 2011 . It is unlikely that Obama is going to announce a significant
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/04/2013430105115612555.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/04/2013430105115612555.html


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increase in US economic assistance to the region and the US already has free trade agreements with Mexico(NAFTA) and Central America (DR-CAFTA).The US is unlikely to agree to significant drug policy reforms ,such as decriminalisation and regulation, desired by so many. Nor is the US likely to cut security assistance to Honduras and Mexico even as their forces continue to be involved in wide-scale abuses, including extrajudicial executions. Obama couldmake a difference, however, returning democracy and human rights to the top of the agenda. In a 1989 conference of the Council of the

Americas, President George HW Bush said that a commitment to democracy and market economies would help define relations between theUS and Latin America. At the first Summit of the Americas to take place in Miami, Florida, in 1994, President Bill Clinton and the heads of stateof every Latin American country, except Cuba, agreed on an ambitious plan to deepen democracy and human rights, to achieve economicgrowth and improve income redistribution within market economies, eliminate poverty and discrimination, and secure environmentallysustainable development. Progress on each of those issues was uneven, at best, during the Clinton and George W Bush administrations.President Obama's trip to Mexico and Costa Rica provides an opportunity for the US and the region to recommit themselves to strengtheningdemocratic institutions and respecting human rights.

Obama isnt involved in Latin America policy now Roett 2012 (Riordan, director of the Latin American Studies program at the Johns Hopkins School ofAdvanced International Studies. What Will Obama's Second Term Mean for Latin America? Inter -American Dialogue. http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3135) "While the president's re-election is welcome in general terms , it is difficult to imagine Latin America will

receive greater attention in the next four years. Congress remains deeply divided. The

administration's foreign policy priorities will continue to focus on China, the Middle East and the

ongoing fiscal challenges. Given the strong turnout by the Latino community, one area that should receivepriority is continued immigration reform, but it is the third rail for the Republican majority in the House. In general,the democratic governments of the region will welcome the president's election without great expectation formajor policy initiatives. The populist regimes will continue to denounce any democratically elected administration.

The deadlock over Cuba will continue unless there is a dramatic leadership shift to a new generation. The major policy initiative that would be welcome in the region is on drug policy, but that issue will remain taboo."

Obamas not spending PC on L.A. now

Isacson 2011 (Adam, senior associate at WOLA. President Obamas Upcoming Trip to Latin AmericaWashington Office on Latin America.http://www.wola.org/commentary/president_obama_s_upcoming_trip_to_latin_america) Though Latin Americans perceptions of the United States have improved since a low point during the Bush administration, our country

is no longer the central player in the economic lives of most Latin American countries, either through

trade or aid. As a result, it carries much less political weight. Though it is not his intention, President Obamas trip will underscore that

the era of unquestioned U.S. leadership has ended , as the President himself acknowledged at the 2009 Summit of theAmericas, when he emphasized building an equal partnership with the regions states. Not all of the messages will be positi ve, however. In a

time of reduced power and deep budget cuts, President Obama will be arriving largely empty-handed. There is relatively little new

economic aid to offer ; much of what the Administration can propose is re-programming to meet priority needs, improved

coordination, and technical assistance. These are important, but not a substitute for new assistance and new initiatives . Not only can

we expect few offers of new economic aid, we can expect few commitments to spend substantial

political capital. The administration, though supportive, is unlikely to make a major political commitment to help Latin America addresswhat, according to opinion polls throughout the region, are its main concerns: public security, unemployment, weak institutions, and migration.
http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3135http://www.wola.org/commentary/president_obama_s_upcoming_trip_to_latin_americahttp://www.wola.org/commentary/president_obama_s_upcoming_trip_to_latin_americahttp://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3135


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16/89


17/89

AT: Fiat Solves the Link

Voting issue for fairness and education

a. They would remove all access to politics disads which are key to neg groundespecially against unpredictable affs

b. Learning about the legislative process and policymaking is a huge part of policyeducation their interpretation would limit out this education


18/89

AT: Disad Is Not Intrinsic

Links and uniqueness prove that the disad is intrinsic

Our interpretation is that the judge can pass the plan, but not the disad

a. Ground We would lose access to all politics disads, and we need them as offenseagainst the affirmative.

b. Politics disads provide us with important education on current events.


19/89

AT: Vote No

A rational policymaker wouldnt just vote against CIR without evaluating theconsequences of his/her actions at worst, vote yes


20/89

PC Key

Obamas pol cap is key to

Capital key to a debt dealLillis 9/7 (Mike, Fears of wounding Obama weigh heavily on Democrats ahead of vote, 09/07/2013,http://thehill.com/homenews/house/320829-fears-of-wounding-obama-weigh-heavily-on-democrats

The prospect of wounding President Obama is weighing heavily on Democratic lawmakers as they decide their votes on Syria. Obamaneeds all the political capital he can muster heading into bruising battles with the GOP over fiscalspending and the debt ceiling. Democrats want Obama to use his popularity to reverse automaticspending cuts already in effect and pay for new economic stimulus measures through higher taxes onthe wealthy and on multinational companies.

Obama has to overcome deep party divisions pol cap is keyWest 13, head of United States practice at Eurasia Group, a global political risk advisory firm, (Sean, Debt Ceiling Fight Could Be TrainWreck, Bloomberg, January 3, 2013 , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/debt-ceiling-fight-could-be-train-wreck.html, nw)

As I suggested likely in these pages, Congress and President Barack Obama managed to find a way to avert thedreaded fiscal cliff with a good enough deal to raise some new tax revenue but avoid a massive tax rate increase as well as automaticspending cuts. What they didnt do was create a new form of bipartisan political interaction that givesreason to be optimistic about how they will address the debt limit and government spending decisions that loom in just a few weeks. While lawmakers can be proud that they exceeded the expectations of many by not allowing a massive growth shock, thereal story of the fiscal cliff is one of opportunity cost. President Obama and Speaker John Boehner had achance to set in motion a new form of bipartisan cooperation . Even if they failed to agree to the larger framework dealthat keeps escaping them, it would have been a far better sign for the future if the cliff deal had beenbrokered directly by the two people in Washington with real power. Instead, it was left to their respective

surrogate and colleague -- Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- to broker a last-minutedeal . Trouble is, the Biden-McConnell troupe is likely a one-hit wonder. House Republicans feel theywere fleeced by their Senate counterparts; its hard to see the House abdicating responsibility to theSenate again in the near future. And Obama -- by letting Biden broker a deal many congressionalDemocrats dislike while the president stoked public support for the administrations position --increased bad blood both within his own party and also with House Republicans, with whom he willhave to deal in the weeks ahead. In the p rocess, however, Obama did manage to secure a major tactical victory; the deal satisfiedmany of his policy goals. Its too early to say that the debt limit negotiations will necessarily be a train wreck , but thelast few weeks provide little reason to be too optimistic that politics will soon change for the better.Obama could upend political dynamics by taking a different approach to his second term. He could seta new, more bipartisan tone in his inaugural and State of the Union addresses, perhaps shaking the dynamic of brinkmanship andlast minute-ism that has taken hold. House Republicans -- with a reduced caucus due to the loss of eight seats in November's election -- may

well find themselves approaching budgetary battles differently than they have in the past. But theres no evidence either sideintends to follow a new script. So were left looking forward to a debt ceiling, sequestration, andcontinuing resolution fight that may be nastier than the fiscal cliff imbroglio . At least in the case of the cliff, bothsides had aligned incentives in that neither actually wanted across-the-board tax increases or spending cuts to take hold. But theincentives are now much different. Obama wants to break the Republican desire to extract dollar-for-dollar spending cuts for debt ceiling increases by refusing to negotiate on the issue. And unless Obamagives House Republicans significant spending cuts -- or at least a credible illusion of them -- they aregoing to hold out until the bitter end on increasing the debt limit .
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/debt-ceiling-fight-could-be-train-wreck.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/debt-ceiling-fight-could-be-train-wreck.html


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22/89

AT: Hirsh

Hirshs arg is just that PC cant set the agenda not that Obamas pol cap is not key toreform passage our UQ ev also proves that debt ceiling is top of the docket

Wins dont spill over - bruising effort doesnt generate capital - their authorMichael Hirsch , Daily Beast, 1-19- 2010 http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/19/the-politics-of-hubris.html

There was nothing new about this, of cours e. It falls into the age-old annals of hubris, the same excess of pride that got Achilles and Agamemnon in trouble with the

gods. Obama apparently did buy into the idea that he was a Man of Destiny and, being one, possessed bottomless supplies ofpolitical capital . But he really had no more political capital than any first-year president, and he was straining his reserves justdealing with the stimulus and financial reform , much less fixing Afghanistan. I first became worried about this bridge-too-far problemlast year while covering financial reform on the Hill, when various congressional staffers told me their bosses didn't really have the time to understand how the Wall

Street lobby was riddling the legislation with loopholes. Health care was sucking all the oxygen out of the room and from theirbrains, the aides said. Obama an d his team seemed barely focused on transforming the financial system except now, belatedly and left a lot of the infighting toregulators like Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Obama had spoken admiringly of Ronald Reagan as a transformationalpresident. And yet at what would seem to be a similar historical inflection point what should have been the end of Reaganite free-market fundamentalism and a

laserlike scourging of Wall Street Obama seemed to put this once-in-a-lifetime task on a back burner. It is only now, a year later, when he has a terrificfight on his hands over health care , that Obama is talking about seriously breaking up the structure of Wall Street. The big- bank lobby will dig inbig time of course, and seek to buy everyone it can on Capitol Hill, which means that the president will need even more political capital that he no longer has. Just

as bad, when the president did do h ealth c are whatever version of it squeaks through now he seemed to be gettingsuch a meager result for so bruising an effort that it will be a long time before anyone has the stomach toset it right legislatively.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/19/the-politics-of-hubris.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/19/the-politics-of-hubris.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/19/the-politics-of-hubris.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/19/the-politics-of-hubris.html


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AT: Winners Win

Ridiculous the GOP will hate Obama even more if he passes super controversiallegislation 1NC Moore proves political capital is a finite resource and winners dont

win - passing legislation doesnt mean his pol cap regenerates Even if a confrontational strategy is key, that doesnt mean the plans singular winspills-over its more likely to undermine Obamas careful strategy on that issue Ryan Lizza, 1/7 /13, Will Hagel Spike the G.O.P.s Fever?,www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/01/how-much-will-the-nomination-of-chuck-hagel-hurt-obamas-second-term-agenda.html

But Obamas victory has made almost no difference in changing the psychology or incentives of themembers of the G.O.P. who matter most : the House Republicans. The idea that a bloc of conservative, mostly Southern,Republicans would start to coperate with the President on issues like tax policy and immigration may have rested on a faulty assumption. The

past few weeks of fiscal-cliff drama have taught us that breaking the fever was the wrong metaphor . There is noone event even the election of a President that can change a political party overnight . Congress is a co-equal branch

of government, and House Republicans feel that they have as much of a mandate for t heir policies as Obama does for his. Shouldnt HouseRepublicans care that their views on Obamas priorities, like tax cuts for the rich and immigration, helped cost Romney the W hite House andwill make it difficult for their partys nominee to win in 2016? In the abstract, many do, but thats not enough to change the voting behavior of

the average House Republican, who represents a gerrymandered and very conservative district. A better metaphor for the comingbattles with Congress may be what Woody Hayes, the college- football coach, famously called three yards and a cloud

of dust : a series of grinding plays where small victories are earned only after lots of intense combat .While the fiscal-cliff showdown demonstrated that theres potential for bipartisan deal-making in theSenate, passing any Obama priority through the House of Representatives is nearly impossible unless

the political pressure is extremely intense.The fiscal-cliff bill

passed the House only when Speaker John Boehners

members realized that their only alternative was blowing up the settlement negotiated by Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell and accepting all

the blame and consequences. That episode offers the White House a general template for the coming fights overspending , immigration, and gun control three issues where there is very little consensus between Obama andmost House Republicans. Deals will have to be negotiated in the Senate and gain the imprimatur ofsome high-profile Republicans. Then a pressure campaign will have to be mounted to convinceBoehner to move the legislation to the floor of the House under rules that allow it to pass with mostlyDemocratic votes. Its easier to see how this could happen with the coming budgetary issues, which havedeadlines that force action, than f or the rest of Obamas agenda, which is more likely than not to simply die in the House.


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Uniqueness


25/89

2NC Negotiations Now

Debt ceiling negotiations have begunCalmes, 9/10 (Jackie, GOP Eyes Hard Line Against Health Care Law, New York Times, 09/10/2013,

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/politics/gop-eyes-hard-line-against-health-care-law.html?_r=0, AC)The Republican and Democratic leaders of the House and Senate have agreed to meet on Thursday, for thefirst time since Congress returned from its five-week summer recess, to begin discussions on the coming fiscal fights overthe continuing resolution and the debt limit. In the House, the Republicans private caucus on Mr. Cantors strategy came asCongress was roiled by the debate over Syria. While several lawmakers lodged objections, the reception was not so hostile initially to d issuadethe leadership from following through.

Bargaining now over the debt ceilingPianin, 9/10, Eric 13, Fiscal Times, Debt -Ceiling Danger Zones Threatens the US, 09/10/2013,http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/09/10/Debt-Ceiling-Danger-Zone-Threatens-US, AC)Once that threshold is crossed, the government could default on payments to major creditors, begin shuttering federal agencies, furloughing

workers or miss making Social Security payments to retirees. Obama has repeatedly said there will be no politicalbargaining over the debt ceiling, as there was two years ago. However, the top four Democratic andRepublican leaders will meet privately on Thursday to discuss the debt ceiling and how to avoid agovernment shutdown before Oct 1, according to Politico.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/politics/gop-eyes-hard-line-against-health-care-law.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/politics/gop-eyes-hard-line-against-health-care-law.html?_r=0http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/f/federal_budget_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/09/10/Debt-Ceiling-Danger-Zone-Threatens-UShttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/09/10/Debt-Ceiling-Danger-Zone-Threatens-UShttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/f/federal_budget_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/politics/gop-eyes-hard-line-against-health-care-law.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/politics/gop-eyes-hard-line-against-health-care-law.html?_r=0


26/89

AT: GOP Wont Compromise

GOP will give in nowAlexander Bolton , 9-12 -2013, "Reid 'really frightened' over potential for government shutdown ," The

Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/321923-reid-really-frightened-of-possible-government-shutdown-after-meeting-with-boehnerSenate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said he is scared of a possible government shutdown after meeting withSpeaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) Thursday morning. Im really frightened , he told reporters after a press conference to dis cuss themorning meeting he had with Boehner, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-

Calif.). I think theyre looking like the House is having trouble controlling themselves , he said. Earlier in the d ay, Reiddeclared that the lower chamber had been taken over by anarchists after an energy efficiency bill stalled on the Senate floor . Were divertedtotally from what this bill is about. Why? Because the anarchists have taken over, he said. Theyve taken over the House and now theyvetaken over the Senate. Reid on Thursday delivered a blunt message to Boehner that he will not delay the 2010 Affordable Care Act in exchangefor keeping the government open past the end of the month. Reid also made clear he will not grant Republicans any concessions in order to

pass legislation to raise the debt limit. Reid told reporters that he will strip out any language defunding or delaying thenew healthcare law included in House-passed legislation funding government beyond Sept. 30. Go to something else, get away fromObamaCare. Send us something else, he said. He plans to pass a clean stopgap spending measure to keep the

government open through years end. Reid characterized Thursday mornings bicameral leadersh ip meeting as cordial and said heoffered to help Boehner circumvent Tea Party- affiliated conservatives who are threatening a government shutdown. I said to him, What can Ido to help?, Reid said. It was not a yelling -at-each-other meeting. It was a v ery nice meeting we had. Hey listen, I like John Boehner. Sen.

Charles Schumer (N.Y.), the third-ranking Senate Democratic leader, predicted House Republican leaders will fold beforeallowing the government to shut down. I still think at the last minute theyll have to blink , Schumer said.The fact that Boehner came up with his sort-of concoction shows that he knows that a governmentshutdown plays badly for him, he added, referring to the stopgap spending measure House GOP leaders presented to theircolleagues on Tuesday. Should he go forward and let the Tea Party win on the government shutdown, then everyone will come do wn on himand say, Whyd you allow them to do it?.


27/89

AT: Obamacare Delay

House will avert shutdown but wont delay ObamacareRubin 9/17 (Jennifer, Do Defunding Obamacare Efforts Have GOP Support, 09/17/2013,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/17/do-defunding-obamacare-efforts-have-gop-support/, AC)It is hard to gauge the degree to which the shutdown fever has gripped the House GOP. The shutdown forces are loud and enjoythe talk show echo chamber, but do they have support among their colleagues? We know that those advocating a governmentshutdown to defund Obamacare havent convinced even a majority of their Senate colleagues . In theHouse, a senior House aide offered that most of the conference was supportive of the speakers approach. Another suggested the tide was

in the direction, but that it wouldnt be hard for hardliners to drive the House off course once again. There are some signs, however, that theprospect of a shutdown has alarmed Republicans , who think that while the aim of getting rid of Obamacare isadmirable, the strategy is suicidal . The argument that the shutdown crowd is actually electorally helping the Democratic CongressionalCampaign Committee (by infighting with their own colleagues and egging them on toward an unpopular strategy) has some resonance amongGOP members. (The Wall Street Journal editorial board warns, The kamikazes could end up ensuring the return of all -Democratic rule.) In the

House, GOP staffers have taken to calling out a major instigator of the shutdown hooey, Sen. Ted Cruz (R- Tex.) (anger at Cruz carries a

fairly broad base among House Republicans, many of whom view his Obamacare push as self-destructive to the party ). Conservatives opposed to a shutdown strategy seem to be making progressin debunking the hard rights nonsense claim that unless a Republican votes for a shutdown hes anObamacare supporter

Defund Obamacare already pulled back risks wasting timeABC News 9/12 (Congress Braces for Looming Fiscal Fight, 0 9/12/2013,http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/congress-braces-for-looming-fiscal-fight/, AC) House Republicans floated a proposal earlier this week that would have funded the government through mid-December, but their mostconservative members opposed a plan leadership had devised that aimed to force the Senate to hold a vote to defund the Affordable Care Act.

Instead, those Republicans demand that the House Republican leadership put forward legislation that completely

defunds Obamacare within the underlying legislation, separate from any gimmicks or parliamentary tricks. Without the votesto pass the leaderships gambit, House Speaker John Boehner pulled the legislation from the Housefloor Wednesday . He said today he might still work to find the votes for that scheme, but he conceded that there are a million optionsthat are being discussed for a continuing resolution. Theres all this specu lation about these deadlines that arecoming up. Im well aware of the deadlines . So are my colleagues, Boehner, R -Ohio, said. Were working with our colleaguesto work our way through these issues. I think there is a way to get there. Im going to be co ntinuing to work with my fellow leaders and ourmembers to address those concerns. About an hour earlier, Boehner had hosted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate RepublicanLeader Mitch McConnell and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi for a 45 -min ute meeting in the Speakers office at the Capitol. Afterwards,Democrats claimed they were candid with Republicans, telling Boehner and McConnell to forget red-meat proposals that are unlikely to draw

much Democratic support. They know that what theyr e proposing is not going to pass the Senate or be signedby the president, so why dont we just save time , be constructive ? Pelosi, D -Calif., said during a news conference thisafternoon. Just because youre an anti -government ideologue who has landed in Congress doesnt mean that you should be shutting downgovernment. Reid said he was also direct with Boehner, urging him to focus on crafting an agreeable continuing resolution instead of cavingto demands by conservatives to defund Obamacare. As we all know, the Speaker has a problem: how to get the government funded, Reid, D -

Nev., said. I told him very d irectly that all these things theyre trying to do on the Obamacare is just a waste of their time . Reid also contended that a faction of House Republicans is intent on shutting down the government if their effort to defundthe presidents health care plan fails to gain traction.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/17/do-defunding-obamacare-efforts-have-gop-support/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/17/do-defunding-obamacare-efforts-have-gop-support/http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/congress-braces-for-looming-fiscal-fight/http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/congress-braces-for-looming-fiscal-fight/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/17/do-defunding-obamacare-efforts-have-gop-support/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/09/17/do-defunding-obamacare-efforts-have-gop-support/


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AT: Thumper - Generic

Debt ceiling must be resolved by October 18Lori Montgomery, 9-10 , 13, House Republicans battle over leaders new budget bill, Washington Post,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-treasury-to-run-out-of-borrowing-authority-as-soon-as-oct-18-report-says/2013/09/10/d4060220-1a18-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.htmlIn the Senate, however, Democrats are likely to accept the House bill and move on to the next big fight over the federal debt limit, a seniorDemocratic aide said. Congressional leaders are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss that battle. According to an independent analysis of

projected cash flow released Tuesday , the Treasury will run short of cash to pay the nations bills as soon as Oct.18 unless Congress agrees to raise the debt limit . While the Treasury may be able to stretch availablefunds into early November, lawmakers would risk causing chaos in world financial markets if theywaited that long to a ct, the report by the Bipartisan Policy Center found. Whats being suggested here is that you better beacting by Oct. 18, or youre going to have problems , said G. William Hoagland, the centers senior vice president and aformer budget adviser to a long line of Senate Republican leaders. Were playing with matches. The nation hit the debt ceiling on May 19.Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has been employing a variety of emergency borrowing measures since then, but by the end of August had onlyabout $108 billion at his disposal, the report said. When that money is gone, the Treasury will be forced to rely entirely upon incoming revenuesand will slowly run short of funds to pay all its bills. The danger zone extends from Oct. 18 to Nov. 5, with big payments due on Oct. 23 andespecially Nov. 1, when Treasury must make $58 billion in payments to Social Security recipients, Medicare providers and active-duty military.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-treasury-to-run-out-of-borrowing-authority-as-soon-as-oct-18-report-says/2013/09/10/d4060220-1a18-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-treasury-to-run-out-of-borrowing-authority-as-soon-as-oct-18-report-says/2013/09/10/d4060220-1a18-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.htmlhttp://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/staff-paper/debt-limit?_cldee=bW9udGdvbWVyeWxAd2FzaHBvc3QuY29thttp://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/staff-paper/debt-limit?_cldee=bW9udGdvbWVyeWxAd2FzaHBvc3QuY29thttp://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/staff-paper/debt-limit?_cldee=bW9udGdvbWVyeWxAd2FzaHBvc3QuY29thttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-treasury-to-run-out-of-borrowing-authority-as-soon-as-oct-18-report-says/2013/09/10/d4060220-1a18-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-treasury-to-run-out-of-borrowing-authority-as-soon-as-oct-18-report-says/2013/09/10/d4060220-1a18-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.html


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AT: Thumper Syria

Congress is focused on averting shutdown now Syria doesnt thump Condon 9/13 (Stephanie, Yet Again, Congress Searches For a Short Term Budget Fix, C BS News,

09/13/2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602745/yet-again-congress-searches-for-a-short-term-budget-fix/, AC) With little time left to sign a spending bill and avert a government shutdown , President Obama on Thursday attemptedto put the crisis of chemical weapons in Syria on hold and refocus Washington's attention on domestic issues . Yetwith partisan relations as fractured as ever -- not to mention relations between Republican leaders and tea partiers -- the White House and

Congress are setting their sights on short-term economic fixes , which has become standard operating procedure forlawmakers in recent years. "Even as we have been spending a lot of time on the Syria issue and making sure that international attention isfocused on the horrible tragedy that occurred there, it is still important to recognize that we've got a lot more stuff to do here in thisgovernment," Mr. Obama said ahead of a White House meeting with members of his Cabinet. The meeting, the president said, was assembledto talk about streamlining government operations and "managing some of the budget debates that are going to be taking place over the nextseveral weeks." "The American people are still interested in making sure that our kids are getting the kind of education they deserve, that

we're putting people back to work," he said, "that we are dealing properly with a federal budget, that bills aregetting paid on time, that the full faith and credit of the United States is preserved. " If Congress

doesn't send Mr. Obama a spending bill by Sept. 30, the federal government would partially shut down .
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602745/yet-again-congress-searches-for-a-short-term-budget-fix/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602745/yet-again-congress-searches-for-a-short-term-budget-fix/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602745/yet-again-congress-searches-for-a-short-term-budget-fix/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602745/yet-again-congress-searches-for-a-short-term-budget-fix/


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AT: UQ > L

UQ doesnt overwhelm the link 1NC Kapur proves pol cap is key

Individual members can decide to vote against raising the debt ceiling, making defaultpossibleJoseph White, 11 is Director of the Center for Policy Studies at Case Western Reserve University. - See more at:http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpuf, The Fiscal Times, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible Members of Congress know they have to raise the ceiling. They also know it is very unpopular. So most of themwant other members to vote for it . They know CONGRESS should raise the ceiling, but that does not mean THEY should vote to raise it. This is nothing new. It is the reason why the House made apractice for many years of including debt-ceiling increases in budget resolutions, where they might not be as noticeable. The House Republicans would not do that this year, because they see the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip.

The Budget Resolution method still requires majorities in the House and Senate to vote for the increase. In oursystem, the majority party in each chamber has responsibility to push through must -pass legislation. Yet thatwill be especially hard this time because the House Majority wants to keep its bargaining chip . Meanwhile the Senate Majorityactually isnt, really, a majority. Senate Democrats cannot even imagine passing a budget resolution. Too many senators want someone else to cast the vote. It istoo easy for conservative or vulnerable Democrats to figure some other Democrats or even a few moremoderate or responsible Republicans will provide the necessary votes. Many House Democrats will surely want the Republicans to pass the increase when itfinally passes, while Republicans will figure its the Democrats who want big government so they should pay the political price. Most legislators may know that failing to increasethe ceiling is a very bad idea but that just means someone else should give in. - See more at : http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpuf

Political crisis could mean that the debt ceiling is not raisedJoseph White, 11 is Director of the Center for Policy Studies at Case Western Reserve University. - See more at:http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpuf, The Fiscal Times, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible

Then there are the centrist budget hawks. Call this the Maya McGuineas test: Maya, are you willing to see a clean debt ceiling increase? Of course not: taking the debt ceilinghostage is one of their ideas. They think a clean debt ceiling increase is not responsible. In other words, playing games with the full faith and credit of the federal government is the responsible thing to do. Usually, whensome sort of policy disaster happens, it is the centrists who are supposed to call for moderation. Yetbudget hawks are not moderates, even if they are centrist s. Usually when war threatens the neutrals try to prevent it. In this case, the relative neutrals wantto RAISE the tension between left and right; to RAISE the stakes of disagreement, based on a misguided idea that only a crisis will bring agreement. Since the real economy keeps refusing to provide evidence that the deficit is an

economic problem,they have to promote a political crisis. The political crisis is the chance that the debt ceiling increase will not pass.The unelected budget hawks dream that left and right will compromise to avoid default is highly unlikely to happen, because there is no substantive middle ground. Meanwhile the electedbudget hawks have made much of their political careers being budget hawks; it is hard for them toback down and vote for a clean increase. They tell themselves it would be so easy if everyone else would just be reasonable. This means the legislators who should be the voice formoderation and avoiding disaster, and the elitecommentators who should be urging them to do so, keep focusing instead on the need for big policy changes.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://crfb.org/sites/default/files/Responsible_Approaches_to_Increasing_the_Debt_Limit_0.pdfhttp://crfb.org/sites/default/files/Responsible_Approaches_to_Increasing_the_Debt_Limit_0.pdfhttp://crfb.org/sites/default/files/Responsible_Approaches_to_Increasing_the_Debt_Limit_0.pdfhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpufhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Capital-Exchange/2011/06/13/Capital-Exchange-Three-Reasons-Default-Is-Possible#sthash.IwjM8Cf8.dpuf


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Generic Links


32/89

Foreign Policy Changes Drain PC

Foreign policy changes drain PCHelen V. Milner (B. C. Forbes Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and

the director of the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton's Woodrow WilsonSchool) and Dustin H. Tingley (Assistant Professor of Government at Harvard University) WhoSupports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign EconomicPolicy International Organization 65, Winter 20 11 , pp. 37 68In democracies, governments have to build domestic support for the use of foreign policy tools. In the UnitedStates, which we focus on in this article, presidents must build legislative coalitions because of the separation ofpowers system. Presidents are not free to simply design the optimal policy for foreign engagement;instead they must obtain domestic approval . Legislators may have their own preferences aboutforeign policy, given the impact policy has on their local constituencies and therefore their reelectionprospects. Legislators may nd it politically costly to yield t o the presidents foreign policy concerns. Foreign policy, then, results from some combination of these domestic and international pressures.

Presidents must expend PC to achieve foreign policy goalsHelen V. Milner (B. C. Forbes Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University andthe director of the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton's Woodrow WilsonSchool) and Dustin H. Tingley (Assistant Professor of Government at Harvard University) WhoSupports Globa l Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign EconomicPolicy International Organization 65, Winter 20 11 , pp. 37 68

Presidential Power and Foreign Policy Concerns Studies of foreign policy of ten claim that the president is the dominant actor. 30 Legislatorsfollow the presidents lead because presidents have more intense preferences and better knowledgeabout foreign policy . In this theory, presidents have strong preferences over policies such as aid and trade because these are importantforeign policy tools, and presidents are responsible for responding to foreign policy challenges. However, as Krasner has noted, Congressprovides an important check on the ability of the president to implement his foreign policy goals: Thepolitical needs and constituencies of Congressmen are different from those of the President.... Because Congressmen represent geographicallyspecic areas, they are bound to have different concerns from the presidents. While the President can be held accountable for the broad effectof policy, rarely can members of the legislature. To get reelected, members of Congress must serve relatively narrow constitu encies. 31 By this

account, presidents need to convince legislators to vote for their foreign policy choices often against thelegislators preferences. Such presidential inuence is likely to arise from several sources, includingthe linking of national security concerns to trade or aid ~that is, playing the security card! and theoffer of side payments to legislators . 32 As we discuss later, the African Growth and Opportunity Act ~AGOA! provides aninteresting case where President Bill Clinton had to use both strategies to craft a winning legislative coalition to advance a foreign policypriority. Following ot her scholars, we argue that legislators often listen to or are persuaded by the p residents foreign policy concerns and,following party loyalty vote in accord with the president. Presidents propose foreign policy to meet external pressures, and legislators vote infavor if they come from the presidents party and against if they are from the opposition party. 33 The ability of presidents to get their

preferences realized in Congress, despite other inuences, has been examined. 34 Fleisher, Krutz, and Hanna show that presidents rateof success in getting their legislation in foreign policy passed is extremely high , and higher than in domesticpolicy. 35 These data suggest that presidents foreign policy concerns can often override the localconstituency interests of legislators.


33/89

Foreign Aid Unpop

Congress wants to cut foreign aid to L.A. nowMeyer and Sullivan 2012 (Peter and Mark, Analyst in Latin American Affairs; Specialist in Latin American

Affairs. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America andthe Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2013Appropriations Congressional Research Service. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf) Foreign assistance is one of the tools the United States has employed to advance U.S. interests in

Latin America and the Caribbean , with the focus and funding levels of aid programs changing along with broader U.S. policygoals. Current aid programs reflect the diversity of the countries in the region. Some countries receive the full range of U.S. assistance as theycontinue to struggle with political, socio-economic, and security challenges. Others, which have made major strides in democraticgovernance and economic and social development, have largely outgrown U.S. assistance but continue to receive some support for new

security challenges, such as strengthening citizen security and combating transnational organized crime . Although U.S. relations

with the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean have increasingly become less defined by the

provision of U.S. assistance as a result of this progress , foreign aid continues to play an important role in advancing

U.S. policy in the region. Congress authorizes and appropriates foreign assistance to the region, andconducts oversight of aid programs and the executive branch agencies charged with managing them. Current efforts to reduce budgetdeficits in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis and U.S. recession have triggered closer examination of competing budget

priorities. Congress has identified foreign assistance as a potential area for spending cuts, placing greaterscrutiny on the efficiency and effectiveness of U.S. aid programs. Spending caps enacted as part of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (P.L. 112-25)1 could place downward pressure on the aid budget for the foreseeable future.
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf


34/89

Renewable Energy Unpop

Pushing renewables decimates Obamas pc Friedman 6/26 (DAN FRIEDMAN DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER; June 26, 2013; Cool hand Bam Prez: I'll

take on climate control measures by myself; Daily News New York; lexis)//KDUB Obama said he would tell the Environmental Protection Agency to impose the first limits on carbon pollution from power plants by2015, one of a series of steps to tackle global warming with out approval from a mostly opposed Congress .Wearing no jacket, the President rolled up his sleeves in 91-degree heat and stifling humidity at the start of his outdoor speech at GeorgetownUniversity. Noting 2012 was the warmest year in U.S. history, he dismissed skeptics who question whether human activity causes risingtemperatures. "I don't have much patience for anyone who denies that this challenge is real," Obama said. "We don't have time for a meetingof the Flat Earth Society. Sticking your head in the sand might make you feel safer, but it's not going to protect you from the coming storm." The

plan drew cheers from environmentalists and attacks from lawmakers of both parties representing energy-producing states. " It's clearnow that the President has declared a war on coal," said Sen. Joe Manchin , (D-W.Va.), whose state relieson the coal industry . "It's simply unacceptable that one of the key elements of his climate change proposal places regulations oncoal that are completely impossible to meet with existing technology." Also Tuesday, Obama raised the prospect of rejectingplans for the Keystone XL pipeline to carry oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. He said his administration willblock it unless it does "not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution ." The President saidhe directed the EPA to work with states and industries to set local pollution standards and new goalsfor carbon reduction . He outlined plans to raise federal investment in renewable energy. Obama promised tougher fuel economystandards for trucks and called for an "end of public financing for new coal plants overseas." Despite the steps, Obama said a carbon buildupmeans the Earth will keep warming. "The fact that sea levels in New York, in New York Harbor, are now a foot higher than a century ago - thatdidn't cause Hurricane Sandy, but it certainly contributed to the destruction that left large parts of our mightiest city dark and under water," hesaid.


35/89

OAS Unpopular

House Conservatives dont support OAS The Economist 11 (Partnership, and its obstacles: Barack Obamas fitful attempts to strike a new

tone in relations with Latin America face new obstacles from Republicans in Congress, The EconomistPrint edition publication, 9-3-11, http://www.economist.com/node/21528271)//TQSHORTLY after he took office in 2009, Barack Obama attended a 34- country Summit of the Americas in Trinidad where he pledged a new era ofpartnership between the two halves of the region, in place of stale debates and old ideologies. Honouring this pro mise has not been easy:Mr Obama has had other priorities, both abroad and at home, and events in the region, such as a coup in Honduras just two months after the

Trinidad summit, revived some of those old debates. Nevertheless, the administration has taken some modest initiativesin Latin America. But now the new partnership risks falling victim to partisan infighting in Washington. In July the Republican majority on a committee of the House of Re

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