lra crisis tracker quarterly security brief [april -june 2011]

8/4/2019 LRA Crisis Tracker Quarterly Security Brief [April -June 2011]

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A PUBLICATION OFINVISIBLE CHILDREN + RESOLVE

LRACRISISTRACKERQUARTERLY SECURITY BRIEF

[APRIL -JUNE 2011]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis LRA Crisis Tracker Quarterly Security Brief provides a summaryand analysis of the reported activities of the Lords Resistance Armyfrom April to June 2011 (highlighted reporting period) in DemocraticRepublic of Congo (DRC), South Sudan, and Central African Republic(CAR).

During the rst two months of the highlighted reporting period there

was a reduction of reported LRA attacks relative to the rst quarter

of 2011, with 10 LRA attacks occurring in April and 19 in May. How-ever, the group is reported to have carried out 52 attacks in the month

of June which resulted in 32 civilians killed and 39 abducted.

Locales that were reportedly attacked most during the highlighted

reporting period include the areas surrounding Faradje, Dungu, andBangadi in Haut Uele, DRC. The hardest hit area of the highlighted re-porting period was Bangadi and its immediate surroundings, in which

10 attacks took place over the course of the quarter.

Intensity of violence, measured by the number of killings and abduc-tions per reported attack, was at its lowest level of the last ve report-ing periods on record. On average, 0.51 civilians were killed and 1.58

abducted per reported attack.

The 92 total attacks recorded during the highlighted reporting period

represent a slight reduction relative to the previous quarter, in which

there were 116 reported attacks.


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REPORTED KILLINGS AND ABDUCTIONS OF CIVILIANS

SUMMARY OF KILLINGSAND ABDUCTIONS OF CIVILIANS

[APRIL -JUNE 2011]

Total reported killings of civilians: 47

Total reported abductions of civilians: 145

Totals by country for the highlighted reporting period:

DRC, 39 killed and 98 abducted; CAR, four killed and

33 abducted; S. Sudan four killed and 14 abducted. Dur-ing the highlighted reporting period, 70% of reported

LRA attacks (68 total) included either a killing or an

abduction of a civilian.

The LRA killed an average of 0.51 people per reportedattack during the highlighted reporting period. The LRA

abducted an average of 1.58 people per reported at-tack during the highlighted reporting period.

July 2010 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2011 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

Invisible Children + Resolve LRA Crisis Tracker

QUARTERLY SECURITY BRIEF [April - June 2011] 3

ATTACK TYPE BREAKDOWN[APRIL-JUNE 2011]

Killings and abductions o civilians

Killing o civilians

Abduction o civilians

Neither*

12-MONTH SUMMARY OF REPORTED KILLINGS AND ABDUCTIONS OF CIVILIANS HIGHLIGHTED REPORTING PERIOD

NUMBER

OFKILLINGS

AND

ABD

UCTIONS

45%

30%

5%20%

Killings

Abductions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

(*Attack leading to civilian injury, looting,

sexual or gender based violence, or displacement)


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NOTABLE LRA ATTACKSKidi, S. Sudan [June 17, 2011]On the evening of June 17th, 6-7 LRA elements re -portedly attacked the community of Kidi in SouthSudan. The LRA abducted two children - a 14 year-

old boy and a 12 year-old girl - and wounded a third

community member in the attack. In response, thelocal Arrow Boy self-defense group pursued the at-

tackers. After clashing with the perpetrators, the Ar-row Boys recovered the abducted children and killed

an unconrmed number of LRA elements. Following

the clash, the Arrow Boys mutilated the body of one

deceased LRA combatant through decapitation ofthe head and the amputation of one arm.

Lolo, Mulundu, and Bambang, DRC[May 18, 2011]

LRA elements reportedly attacked three communi-ties outside Ango, DRC on the morning of May 18th,

committing the largest abduction of the highlightedreporting period. In total, 22 individuals were abduct-ed from Lolo, Mulundu, and Bambang, DRC - 13 of

the abductees being children. In the course of theraid, household goods and seeds were stolen.

Road east of Dembia, CAR[June 6, 2011]

LRA elements reportedly attacked a truck contain-

ing the chief medical ofcer of the Haut Mbomouprefecture on the road ~10km east of Dembia, CAR

(~75km west of Zemio) on June 6th. In the course

of the attack, three of the passengers successfully es-caped. However, the attackers killed the driver of the

vehicle, along with the chief medical ofcer. Addition-ally, the attackers destroyed a vital store of polio vac-cines being transported to the region. Following the

attack, a group of 100 medical professionals marchedin protest in Bangui - with other towns in SE CAR

experiencing similar demonstrations - demanding an

end to the CAR governments and the UPDFs failure

to adequately protect civilians from the LRA.



Kidi, S. Sudan

2 abducted

Lolo, Mulundu, and

Bambang, DRC22 abducted

Road east of

Dembia, CAR2 killed

S. SUDANCAR

DRC

MBOMOU

BAS UELE

HAUT MBOMOU

HAUT UELE

WESTERN EQUATORIA

WESTERN BAHR EL GHAZAL

100 KM

50 MI

YAMBIO

ANGO

ZEMIO

// SITE OF ATTACK

// OTHER NOTABLE TOWNS

DEMBIA


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TRENDS IN LRA ACTIVITY

Intensity of violence per reported attack

at lowest levels in 18 monthsIntensity of LRA violence (measured by number of civil-ian deaths and abductions per reported attack) recorded

during the highlighted reporting period was lower than at

any point in the past 18 months. Reported LRA attacks re-corded during the highlighted reporting period averaged

0.51 deaths per reported attack, with the previous ve

quarters measured, in reverse chronological order, at 0.68,

0.62, 1.07, 1.03, and 2.43. Abductions per reported attack

follow a similar pattern of decline at 1.58, 2.26, 1.73, 2.40,

1.77, and 2.96.

Bangadi once again the most frequently

attacked community in Haut UeleIn the nal quarter of 2010, the immediate area surround -

ing the town of Bangadi, Haut Uele, DRC was the single

most attacked area in all LRA-affected regions, with seven

separate reported attacks recorded. The following quarter,

from January to March of 2011, showed a signicant drop

in activity in this area, with only a single attack reported.

However, in the highlighted reporting period, Bangadi re-

sumed its distinction as the most frequent target of LRA

atrocities, with the town and outlying areas suffering a to-tal of 10 attacks which resulted in eight deaths and seven

abductions.

Major LRA activity surge recorded in the

month of JuneIn June, the LRA reportedly carried out 52 attacks in DRC,

23 more attacks than the previous two months in the

highlighted reporting period combined. June marks the

highest level of attacks seen in the 16 month period since

March 2010, when 76 attacks were recorded. These June

attacks resulted in a total of 32 killings and 39 abductions.

The motive behind this surge of LRA activity is unknown,

but there has been speculation that it could be correlated

with the rice and millet harvest season.



S. SUDANCAR

DRC

UGANDAALL REPORTED LRA ATTACKS [April - June 2011]

DUNGU

NIANGARA

ZEMIO

TAMBURA

WATSA

ANGO

MBOMOU

BAS UELE

HAUT MBOMOU

HAUT UELE

WESTERN EQUATORIA

BANGADI

10

NAMBIA FARADJE4

3ABA

4

BAGULUPO

DORUMA

4

3

GUINIKOUMBA

YAMBIO

MBOKIOBO

100 KM

50 MI

5

// SITE OF ATTACK

// OTHER NOTABLE TOWNS

// NUMBER OF ATTACKS > 2

CENTRAL EQUATORIA

NGILIMA


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METHODOLOGYThe following is a summary of the data sources, veri-

cation methods, and denitions of key terms used to

produce the LRA Crisis Tracker Quarterly Security Brief(henceforward the Brief). Data utilized in the Brief is

drawn from the LRA Crisis Tracker Database (hencefor-

ward the Database) and summarized within the Brief

to illustrate the activities of the LRA including attacks,

killings, and abductions and their impact on civilian pop-

ulations over time.

For more detailed information regarding data gov-ernance policies, verication ratings, and logging proce-

dures utilized to create the Database, please refer to the

LRA Crisis Tracker Map Methodology and Database Co-debook v1.0 at LRACrisisTracker.com.

Data SourcingData found within the Brief originates from the Da-

tabase, a geospatial dataset pertaining to the Lords Re-

sistance Army (LRA) and violent conict in LRA-affected

regions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),

South Sudan (S. Sudan), and the Central African Republic

(CAR). Data for the Database is gathered from reports

produced by non-governmental organizations and Unit-ed Nations agencies; open source news outlets; govern-

ment agencies; rsthand research conducted by Invisible

Children, Resolve, and peer organizations; and civilian-

controlled high frequency (HF) early-warning radio net-

works in LRA-affected areas.

Access to reliable data sources is uneven across ar-eas where the LRA is operating. As such, data quality can

vary, and information from many attacks may not be re-

corded in the Database. All efforts have been made to

create a comprehensive and accurate dataset utilizing all

available sources.

Data VerifcationTwo different rating systems are utilized to assess the

accuracy of details included in any incident report loggedin the Database. The rst system assesses condence in

details surrounding the incident as a whole, and the sec-

ond assesses condence in whether or not the LRA was

a perpetrator of violence in a given incident.

Incident Verifcation Rating

The Incident Verication Rating assesses condence in

the accuracy of each incident report as a whole based on

information available to LRA Crisis Tracker data coders.

Each incident is given a rating of 1 through 5, with 1

being the most unreliable and 5 being very reliable. The

rating is based on the reliability of the source, whether

or not the source itself portrays the incident as reliable

(e.g., if the report use words like alleged or potential,

its rating would be downgraded), condence in the iden-

tity of the actors involved in the incident, and the degree

of detail given in the source report. A verication rat-ing of 2 through 5 is considered adequately veried

to be reported publicly, and therefore is included in this

Brief. For a detailed explanation of Incident Verication

Ratings, please refer to section 4.2 (a) of the LRA Crisis

Tracker Map Methodology and Database Codebook v1.0.

Incident Verication Ratings for individual attacks found

within the Brief can be found through the Get Reports

sub-heading at LRACrisisTracker.com.

LRA Actor Verifcation Scale

The LRA Actor Verication Scale measures the degreeof condence that members of the armed group involved

in an incident were elements of the LRA, based on infor-mation available to LRA Crisis Tracker data coders. The

scale takes into account the type of event, the number of

primary sources, and the number of indicators observed

in the incident that are typically correlated with the LRA.

For a detailed explanation of the LRA Actor Verication

Scale, please refer to section 4.2 (b) of the LRA Crisis

Tracker Map Methodology and Database Codebook

v1.0. LRA Verication Ratings for individual attacks found

within the Brief can be found through the Get Reports

sub-heading at LRACrisisTracker.com.

Key DefnitionsThe following are the operative denitions for key

terms used in the Brief.

Attack

An incident is considered an attack in the Brief if

LRA activity results in one of the following human rights

violations: violence resulting in death or injury, sexual or

gender based violence, abduction, looting, or displace-

ment. For detailed denitions of these human rights

abuses, please refer to section 4.5 of the LRA Crisis

Tracker Map Methodology and Database Codebook v1.0.

KillingAn incident is regarded as a killing if there is a vio-

lent act that results in the death of an individual who

is not known to be associated with an armed group or

security force. This includes a civilian death that resultsfrom an injury sustained previously by LRA violence. If

a civilian is killed while in LRA captivity, it is considered

a killing if it occurs within one week of the initial ab-

duction. For a detailed explanation of incidents that are

categorized as a killing, please refer to section 4.5.1 of

the LRA Crisis Tracker Map Methodology and Database

Codebook v1.0.

Abduction

An incident is regarded as an abduction if it involves

one or more persons taken hostage against their will by

the LRA for any period of time. This includes incidents in

which LRA elements abduct civilians and release them

later the same day. For a detailed explanation of data

relating to LRA-perpetrated abduction, please refer to

section 4.5.2 of the LRA Crisis Tracker Map Methodol-ogy and Database Codebook v1.0.




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ContributorsResolveMichael Poffenberger

Executive Director

Paul Ronan

Director of Advocacy

Kenneth TransierAdvocacy Associate

John BeationCrisis Tracker Project Developer

Chelsea Geyer

Crisis Tracker Project Developer

Invisible ChildrenInvisible Children is committed to assisting LRA-affected communities in effortsto mitigate the effects of the Lords Resistance Army (LRA). Since 2005, InvisibleChildren has supported the recovery of northern Uganda by working with local

leaders to advance education and provide economic opportunity. Learn more atwww.invisiblechildren.com.

1620 5th Ave, Suite 400

San Diego, CA 92101

USA

Phone: +1 (619) 562-2799

[email protected]

About ResolveResolve is a Washington, DC-based organization advocating for an end to atroci-ties being perpetrated by the Lords Resistance Army and in support of effortstoward lasting peace in affected communities across central Africa. Learn more

at www.theresolve.org

236 Massachusetts Ave. NE, Ste. 500

Washington, DC 20002USA

Phone: +1 (202) 596-2517

RESOLVE

Resolve is a Washington D.C.-based advocacy organization seeking to move U.S.

and international political leaders to take the actions needed to see a permanent

end to the violence of the Lords Resistance Army in central Africa and justice toLRA-affected communities. Learn more at theresolve.org.

236 Massachusetts Ave. NE, Ste. 500

Washington, DC 20002USA

Phone: +1 (202) 596-2517

[email protected]

INVISIBLE CHILDREN

Invisible Children is an international NGO working to assist communities in LRA-

affected areas of central Africa by (1) expanding community-based early warning

systems, (2) reaching out to potential LRA defectors and affected communitiesthrough FM radio, (3) sensitizing communities to encourage peaceful LRA defec-tion and (4) rehabilitating formerly-abducted children. Learn more at invisiblechil-dren.com.

1620 5th Ave, Suite 400

San Diego, CA 92101

USA

Phone: +1 (619) [email protected]

ABOUT THE LRA CRISIS TRACKERData reected in this brief was collected as part of the Invisible Children + Re-solve LRA Crisis Tracker, a geospatial database and reporting project which

aims to track incidents of violent conict in areas of central Africa affected by

the Lords Resistance Army. Through publication of regular reports and open-source sharing of collected data, the LRA Crisis Tracker aims to help overcomethe current decit of relevant and timely information related to the LRA crisis

and to support improved policy and humanitarian responses.

CONTRIBUTORS

Resolve

Michael Poffenberger

Executive Director

Paul Ronan:

Director of Advocacy

Kenneth TransierAdvocacy Associate

John BeatonCrisis Tracker Project Developer

Chelsea Geyer

Crisis Tracker Project Developer

Becky DaleTranslator



ABOUT

FURTHER RESOURCESFor a real-time, geospatial look at LRA activity, or to download the data found

within the Quarterly Security Brief please visit the LRA Crisis Tracker Map at:

LRACrisisTracker.com

Invisible Children

Laren Poole

President

Adam FinckDirector of Programs,

Central Africa

Sean Poole

Programs Coordinator,

Uganda & Congo Initiatives

Caroline BerkeyCrisis Tracker Project Developer

Melanie Zawadi

Administrative Assistant,Dungu

lra crisis tracker quarterly security brief [april -june 2011]

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