Steve MazorManager, Automotive Research Center &

Chief Automotive Engineer

Drivers of Technological Change

• Ground Level Air Quality “Smog”

• Global Warming – Greenhouse Gas Reduction

• Energy Security

• Congestion Relief

• THE ECONOMY—THE COST TO GET FROM HERE TO THERE

LA at its Worst

The Goal

South Coast Air BasinPASSENGER VEHI CLES MI LES TRAVELED

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Greenhouse Gas Reductions

• Transportation is the largest single man-made source with passenger vehicles accounting for 27% in 2006

• When carbon-based fuels are burned (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, propane, ethanol, etc.) exhaust is essentially H20 and CO2

Greenhouse Gas Reductions

• Must use more non-carbon based fuels such as electricity (although some carbon- based fuels are used to generate electricity) or hydrogen

• Improve vehicle efficiency since improved mpg = reduced CO2 emissions

Energy Security

• Really means that we want to insure a reliable supply of affordable energy, no matter what happens elsewhere

• Home-produced fuels (CNG, ethanol, bio-diesel, electricity, hydrogen)

• Fuel diversity reduces sensitivity to upheavals

Congestion Relief

• We want to be able to get where we are going in a timely fashion

• We will not be able to build our way out of congestion

• Technological improvements leading to automated vehicles and roadways will help

The Economy

• This is really the main driver from the consumers’ side

• People will do what they can to be able to afford mobility

• For example, the increased demand for high mpg vehicles due to today’s high fuel prices

The Auto in 2035

• Significant portion of fleet will use “traditional” fuels, although these fuels may be unrecognizable

• We may have already seen the demand peak in California for petroleum-based fuels

• Could see EV “fast-charging” stations that can provide 80% charge in a few minutes

• Could see hydrogen refueling stations on every corner like today’s gasoline stations

• Automated vehicles/roadways will appear. Electrified vehicles are a natural fit into automation systems

• Other options may appear