luiz a. horta nogueira - iepec.orgiepec.org/conf-docs/session_agendas/2012-rome/20c_horta.pdf1986...

Luiz A. Horta NogueiraUniversity of Itajubá, BRAZIL

2

Outline

1. Energy in Brazil

2. Energy efficiency programs in Brazil

3. PROCEL/INMETRO Labeling Program

4. MEPS CGIEE Program

5. Final comments

Assessing Impacts of Efficiency Programs in Brazil

Brazil: Energy supply at a glance


� Diversified base of energy reserves and potentials.

� 50% of total energy production are renewable.

Energy flows in Brazil in 2007

(INEE, 2009)

4

Electricity basic data in Brazil


� 115 GW installed capacity

� More 50 GW until 2020

� 85% of electricity come from hydro stations

Main transmission lines andpower stations in Brazil

(ONS, 2011)

5

Electricity consumption in Brazil


� Electricity is available in 98,5% of Brazilian hous eholds

� Consumption increase associated to social and productive uses

Electricity production:

kWh/inhab ( blue curve )

kWh/1000 USD ( red curve )

(MME, 2011)

6

Energy efficiency requirement


National Energy Plan sets a reduction of 10% of bas eline electricity consumption expected for 2030.

Final Electricity Consumption forecast

(in green savings induced by efficiency

programs)(EPE, 2009)

Consumption forecast w/o efficiency gains

Consumption forecast with efficiency gains

TWh

7

Energy efficiency programs in Brazil


Since 80’s programs aiming to improve energy effici ency and reduce energy losses have been implemented.

Main programs

Program Created in Management Budget (M USD/year)

PROCEL National Program of Electrical Energy Conservation

1985 Eletrobras ~ 45

PEE Program of Energy Efficiency 2000

ANEEL (power sector regulatory agency)

~ 140

CGIEE Steering Committee of Minimum Energy Performance Standards

2001 Ministry of Mines and Energy -

!

PROCEL/INMETRO Labeling Program


40 different equipment and approx. 3,800 models rec eive the performance labels: refrigerators, air conditioners , washing machines, lamps, TV sets, etc.

National Energy Conservation Label

(PROCEL/INMETRO)

Energy Economy PROCEL Seal

(Class A + other atributes)

9



Evaluation of results :

The energy impact of an equipment labeling can be estimated by comparing the park of such equipment b efore and after the introduction of the label.

Annual Energy

Economy

Baseline Average Unit Consumption

After Labeling Average Unit Consumption

-=Park of

Equipment ( )

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Evaluated equipment : refrigerators and freezers, air conditioners, fluorescent lamps and ballasts, elect ric motors, solar water heating systems and roof fans.

PROCEL results in 2011 :

� Energy saving: 6.70 TWh (1.6 % of national consumpt ion)

�Capacity saving (demand reduction): 2,619 MW

�Economy due to postponed plants: 440 M US




Partial results :

(PROCEL, 2008)

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

GWh

Baseline Park (w ithout PROCEL Label)

Potential Park (100% w ith PROCEL Label)

Actual Park (w ith and w ithout PROCEL Label)

1,012 GW h

1,840 GWh

Scenarios of energy consumption of refrigerators in Brazil: a)without efficient equipment ( red line ), b) real ( blue line ) and

c) only efficient equipment ( green line )



(EXCEN, 2010)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Sem coletores solares Apenas com coletores semSelo PROCEL

Com coletores com Selo esem Selo PROCEL

Apenas com coletorescom Selo PROCEL

Características das residências

GW

h

LB - Sem coletores solaresGanho de 882 GWh

LB - Somente equip. sem Selo PROCELGanho de 16,3 GWh

Without collectors With conventional collectors

With the current park of collectors

Just with efficient collectors

Household characteristics

Effect of solar water heating systems on electricit y consumption for water heating (electric showers)

Energy saved with full adoption of labeled collectors

16,3 GWh

Energy saved due actual market of solar collectors

882 GWh

Partial results :

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MEPS CGIEE Program


According to Law 10.295/2001, the Steering Committe e of Minimum Energy Performance Standards of Ministry of Mines and Energy, sets efficiency limits and target s for equipment commercialized in Brazil, available on li ne.

Equipment with MEPS in place (2001/2010):

Electric motors, compact fluorescent lamps, refrige rators, freezers and air conditioners, electric lamps, gas stoves an d ovens and gas domestic water heaters.

Equipment in final stage to receive MEPS :

Washing machines, transformers, ballasts.

MEPS CGIEE Program


Initial results (2001/2010)

Forthcoming results (2030)

Mainly due efficient lamps mandatory introduction, it is forecasted a total energy economy of 11,864 GWh e 8 .30 GW.

(MME, 2011)

Final comments


� Efficiency programs in Brazil, specially Performanc e Labeling and MEPS, present sizable and relevant ene rgy impacts.

� The current level of detail and consistence of impa cts assessment of efficiency programs recommend to include fostering energy savings in national energy plans.

� A challenge to face in the Brazilian context is to promote efficiency in the current abundance of primary ener gy supply. Energy should be always used with rationali ty.

L. A. Horta [email protected]

EXCEN/UNIFEIExcellence Centre on Energy Efficiency

Thanks for your attention.

Thanks for FAPEMIG support.

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Electricity economy and social impact


Mandatory introduction of efficient appliances due to energy crisis in 2001 promoted energy savings witho ut sensible social effects.

Human Development Index (HDI) and

Residential Electricity Use per capita

(EXCEN-UNIFEI, 2010)

0,55

0,60

0,65

0,70

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

HDI

kWh/inhab

19901985

1980

1995

2000

2005

2010

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Average consumption of refrigerators

(kWh/month)

(PROCEL, 2010)

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To estimate the park of equipment can be used surveys or marketing and economic life information.

Air conditioner park

Pj= Si- D j

i=j-VU

j

∑

(Horta Nogueira et al., 2011)

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The average unit consumption (baseline and after la beling) can be obtained weighing and adjusting results from laboratory tests, considering ambient temperature, age and operating time.

Average Unit Annual Energy Consumption

Adjusting Factors: Temperature, Age and

Operating Time= x

Weighed Standard

Consumption

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The average unit consumption (AC) can be defined ba sed on market share (MS) of different performance categori es.

AC jK =

CiK

i=j-EL

j

∑ .MSi

MSi

i=j-EL

j

∑0

1

1

2

2

3

E D C B A

Milllionunits

performancecategory

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Refrigerator market

(MME, 2011)

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Aging effect in refrigerators.

Fator de degradação teórico

Ref 1

Ref 3

Ref 4

Ref 5

Ref 6

Ref 7

Ref 9

Ref 10

Ref 11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25

Fator de de

grad

ação

(%)

Idade do refrigerador (anos)

Consumption increase in refrigerators

Refrigerator age(Salvador, 2012, unpublished)

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20072000

1995

1990

(prepared with data from ECLAC and OLADE, 2009)

How can we take the efficient path?

0,150

0,155

0,160

0,165

0,170

0,175

0,180

5750 6250 6750 7250 7750 8250

Incomepercapita(US$2007/hab)

EnergyIntensity

(tep/1,000US$2007)

Energysupplypercapita

0,9tep/hab 1,0tep/hab 1,1tep/hab 1,2tep/hab

1,3tep/hab

19901995

2000

2005 2008

luiz a. horta nogueira - iepec.orgiepec.org/conf-docs/session_agendas/2012-rome/20c_horta.pdf1986...

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