Air pollution –A summary of our current state of knowledge

Dr Andrea Hinwood, Chief Environmental Scientist

EPA Victoria: Who we are and why we exist• EPA is Victoria’s environmental

regulator• We exist to protect the

environment and people from the harmful effects of pollution and waste

• Our job is to prevent and reduce harm from pollution and waste. We do this by:– holding polluters to account– supporting people to

understand, own and address their harmful impacts on the environment

– working with others.

A healthy environment that supports a liveable and prosperous Victoria, now and always

Our vision

EPA’s role in monitoring and assessmentWhy Monitor• Long-term trends

• Investigation/targeting of sources

• Emergency and incident response

EPA has been monitoring air quality since 1979

What we currently monitor via our network

http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/our-work/monitoring-the-environment/epa-airwatch

• PM2.5 and PM10

• Ozone• Carbon monoxide• Sulfur dioxide• Nitrogen dioxide• Visibility

Respiratory and cardiovascular effects

Premature mortality

Emerging evidence: Low birth weight, preterm birth, diabetes

Air pollution and health

Pollutant Health effects (most consistently reported)

Particulate matter < 10 µm in diameter (PM10) - Decreased lung function- Increased respiratory symptoms- Exacerbation of cardiac conditions, asthma and other respiratory conditions- Premature mortality- Lung cancer

Particulate matter < 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) - Decreased lung function- Increased respiratory symptoms- Exacerbation of cardiac conditions, asthma and other respiratory conditions- Premature mortality- Lung cancer

Ozone (O3)

- Decreased lung function- Increased respiratory symptoms - Exacerbation of asthma and other respiratory disease

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) - Increased respiratory symptoms- Exacerbation of respiratory disease

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) - Increased respiratory symptoms - Exacerbation of asthma and other respiratory disease

Carbon monoxide (CO) - Exacerbation of ischaemic heart disease - Decreased exercise capacity

Pollutants and their known health effects

• Globally, diseases caused by outdoor air pollution is estimated to have caused about 4 million premature deaths in 2015

• In Australia, air pollution estimated to account for 3000 premature deaths a year

• Annually this costs Australia approximately $11–24 billion

Air pollution in Victoria and Australia

http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health

Future scenarios for air quality• Changes in vehicle technology and population.

• Significant increases expected in domestic and business emissions due to population growth Melbourne and Geelong areas between 2006 and 2030.

• Climate change is predicted to cause significant increases in summer smog (ozone).

• In the most likely future scenario, there will be an increase in population exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) between 2006 and 2030.

Challenges for Victoria

Increased health impacts

Environmental and climate change

Increasing traffic

Urban densification

Increasing population

Changes to the economy and industry

• Particulate matter is a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air.

• These particles come in many sizes and shapes and can be made up of hundreds of different chemicals.

• Some are emitted directly from a source, some produced as secondary pollution

• Size fraction ie PM10 vs PM2.5 and composition will vary depending on the source.

Particulate matter

Ozone formation

• Ozone is a secondary pollutant• Primary constituent of photochemical smog• Formed by complex reactions between NOx and VOCs in atmosphere

in presence of sunlight

Ozone – trends

Sources we know about

Wood heaters and other indoor sources

Bushfires, planned burns

Motor vehicles, tail pipe and raised dust

Industrial sources

Commercial sources Spatial distribution of wood heaters in Port Phillip Region

PM2.5, CO, NOxVOCs

PM2.5, CO, NOxVOCs

PM2.5, PM10CO, NOx, SO2VOCs

Dependent on industry

Dependent on industry

Update to EPA’s emissions inventory

Emissions inventories are a database of where emissions are occurring

Can be used as an input into models of where particles are going

Limitation is that they can only tell us about things we already know about

Emissions inventory – early findings

2016 PM2.5 kg/m2/annum

Air quality trends

Some things have improved over time

Others have remained similar

Trends can be sensitive to large scale events

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

1979

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1989

1990

1991

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annu

al C

arbo

n m

onox

ide

(ppm

)

Annual average carbon monoxide [ppm]

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.919

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17

Annu

al A

vera

ge A

PI

Annual average API (Particle Index)

PM2.5 - trend

No real trend in PM2.5

concentrations over time

Lead in PM10

Lead in petrol was identified as the primary source of lead in Melbourne.

Once leaded petrol was phased out there was no longer a need to monitor for it after 2004

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Annu

al a

vera

ge le

ad in

PM

10 (μ

g/m

³)

Annual average lead in PM10 in Melbourne

NO2 and SO2 - trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annu

al A

vera

ge N

O2

[par

ts p

er b

illio

n]

Annual Average Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2): 1996-2017 [ppb]

Average(Port Phillip) Air NEPM Annual NO2 Standard (30 ppb)

Nitrogen dioxide – average of long-termMelbourne sites

Sulfur dioxide – annual average of long-termMelbourne sites, 1996–2017

Ozone – trends

Annual average of long-term Melbourne sites has gradually increased from 1979–2017

Ozone – trends

Highest 1-hour average ozone measured in Melbourne each year since 1979

Distribution of days across air quality categories

Port Phillip Region

Distribution of days across air quality categories

Latrobe Valley

Sources we need to know more about

Sea salts and other natural sources

Industrial accidents / major fires

Road emissions from electric vehicles

Indirect formation of particles

What else?

PM10 events at Port Phillip NEPM monitoring sites

0102030405060708090

Num

ber o

f day

s, P

M10

24-h

our

stan

dard

exc

eede

d

Dust Fires Urban Unknown

Source attribution of PM10 events at Port Phillip NEPM monitoring sites (2002–2017)

PM2.5 events at NEPM monitoring sites

0

5

10

15

20

Num

ber o

f day

s, PM

2.5

24-h

our

stan

dard

exc

eede

d

Fires Urban

Source attribution of PM2.5 events at NEPM monitoring sites (2002-2017)

Health benefits of reducing air pollution

• Increasing evidence of measurable health benefits from actions to reduce air pollution

• Co-benefits of improving air pollution

Make our data more accessible

Looking at existing data in a different way (Modelling Population Exposure)

Developing new knowledge (spatial extent, sources, interventions)

New technologies and approaches

Citizen science

Leads to a better

understanding of air quality

Future of air quality science at EPA

Air pollution in VictoriaAir pollution in Victoria – a summary of our current state of knowledge

Available on EPA’s website at:

www.epa.vic.gov.au/AQreport

Publication number: 1709

Questions

Thank you