m. schaap , l. curier, r. kranenburg, f. boersma , h. eskes , a. segers, r. timmermans

23
Exploring the Sensitivity of the OMI‐NO 2 Product to emission Changes Across Europe using a Chemistry Transport Model M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma, H. Eskes, A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Upload: fran

Post on 24-Feb-2016

56 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Exploring the Sensitivity of the OMI‐NO 2 Product to emission Changes Across Europe using a Chemistry Transport Model. M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma , H. Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Exploring the Sensitivity of the OMI‐NO2 Product to emission Changes Across Europe using a Chemistry Transport Model

M. Schaap, L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma, H. Eskes, A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Page 2: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

IntroductionIn Europe, official emissions are reported are reported to EEA and UNECE/EMEP. Although many countries report high quality data, a number of caveats exist:

the inventory methodologies vary from nation to nationdata gaps exist not real-time discrepancies between eastern and western Europe

Officially reported emissions (Gg) for year: 2000

Reported in Reported in

+ 45%Nox Germany PM10

Page 3: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

GoalsTo contribute to the verification and improvement of the European emission inventory by synergistic use of satellite data and a chemistry transport model.To inform you on activities performed at TNO with OMI-NO2 data

Page 4: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS

Lower troposphere up to 3.5 KmCBM-IV chemistryExplicit N2O5 hydrolysis

ISORROPIA-II equilibrium mod.NO2 columns calculated using

OMI averaging kernels

EnKF data assimilationParticipated in most model comparisons (GLOREAM, EURODELTA, AQMEII)Member of MACC ensemble

Labelling module that tracks source contributions for all N-containing compounds

See Kranenburg et al., 2013

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 5: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Emissions Labels

2005: MACC-2005 database2020: MACC-2005 scaled by

GAINS 2020 totals per sector

Temporal profiles per sector

SNAP sectors1 Energy industries

3 Industrial combustion

7 Road transport

8 Non-road transport

9 Agriculture

Other

Power generationHouse holdsIndustrial combustionProduction processesExtraction of fossil fuelsSolvent useRoad transportOff-road trnsportWaste incinerationAgriculture

Label definition:- 6 source sectors- 5 hours of the day

between 9 and 14- Boundary conditions

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 6: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Annual mean modelled and retrieved NO2 distribution

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Model OMI

Systematic bias of 1.1015 molec/cm2

Spatial correlation R2 = 0.91

Page 7: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Comparison over EuropeEastern Europe

Western Europe Iberian Peninsula

2007 Netherlands

Page 8: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Power generation

Sector contributions to NO2 columns at OMI overpass

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 9: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Off Road transport

Sector contributions NO2 columns at OMI overpass

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 10: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Road transport

Sector contributions to NO2 columns at OMI overpass

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 11: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Approach:

 

Seasonal componentAnnual trends

[Weatherhead et al 1998]

• LOTOS-EUROS simulation with constant 2005 emissions

• Match to OMI columns using averaging kernel

• Trend estimate in the bias between OMI and LOTOS-EUROS

Page 12: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Satellite derived trends in OMI-NO2 v1

NO2 trends show decreasing values of

3-6 % a year between 2005 and 2010.

Data often used as a first order estimate of the NOx emission trend

Comparison to 2011 reporting for 2009

Page 13: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Impact of emission scenario on NO2 columns

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Emissions NO2 Columns

Page 14: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Island states

Coastal countries

Large countries

Sea areas

Page 15: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Extension to 2012 using OMI-v2 and full data assimilation

Assimilation indicated a very slow decline until 2012, if any! Reason: V2.0 contains much smaller trends!

Parameter estimate using v2Trend analysis on v1

% change over 5 years

Page 16: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Comparison v1 and v2 for 2005-2010

Page 17: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilotMeteo correctedAll data

Page 18: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Change of Annual emissions and levels normalized to 2005

Page 19: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Impact of direct NO2 percentage diesel cars

from 3 to 20%

NO2 evaluation for 1990-2009

%

Page 20: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Conclusions We have developed a source apportionment tool to investigate

emission sector contributions to satellite products. Source sector contributions show distinctly different spatial patterns. For land locked and large countries OMI-NO2 trends can be

translated into emission changes. Both in-situ and remote sensed NO2 levels show lower downward

trends than reported emissions. Improvements possible through update temporal variability of

emissions, natural emissions, extension of vertical extend LE. This study highlights the need for a combined use of models, a-priori

emission estimates and satellite data to verify emission trends.

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 21: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Thank you for you attention

Reference: Schaap et al., Remote Sens., 5(9), 4187-4208; Curier et al., 2014

Acknowledgement: We acknowledge the support of ESA project GlobEmission and the EC-FP7 ENERGEO project

Monday, April 11, 2011R. Lyana Curier

21

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

Page 22: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Comparison to AIRBASE ground level NO2

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

y = 3.0311 + 0.6743x R2= 0.40864

Mod

elle

d co

ncen

tratio

n (

g/m

3 )

Measured concentration (g/m3)

Page 23: M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F.  Boersma , H.  Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Contribution of the emissions between 09-14 to NO2 columns at OMI overpass

M. SchaapFossil Fuel pilot