2+

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+ +

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–

–

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/ Expected changes between 2010 and 2050

< 1

1 - 3

3 - 5

Missing data

Harvested area / active in 2010 (Ha)

+ –

⁄ ⁄

M19. Harvested area /worker in 2010 and 2050 projectionsSource: author

M18. Evolution of agricultural income between 2010 and 2050 Source: author

250

0 to 40% of 2010 income

40 to 70% of 2010 income

70% of 2010 income to stable

Stable to + 40%

Increase of + 40%

Missing data

Expected relative income

Income per worker

in 2010

Income per worker in 2050

(square root of the value)

⁄⁄

A NEW EMERGING RURAL WORLD AN OVERVIEW OF RURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA

32

8WHICH PATHWAYS

FOR AGRICULTURE BY 2050?

By 2050, some African countries will be able to leverage growth in their economies to bols-ter agricultural production through support policies, while others will have to resort to ap-plying social measures to the sector in order to maintain stability and territorial balances.

• Agricultureand structural change 

The agriculture and food sector is often held up as an example of an activity that will be ca-pable of absorbing surplus labour in the future and becoming a major contributor to natio-nal wealth. This position implies that struc-tural change – characterised by a decrease in the share of farming in employment and global wealth – could be deferred for several decades, or that Africa could take a diff erent development path to the traditional trajectory of change.

Leveraging the agri-food sector also assumes that farmers will be able to make a decent living from their activity, yet access to land will become increasingly diffi cult as a result of high population growth and climate change could reduce the potential for higher yields. There are more and more obstacles to aligning farm income with other sectors of activity. Howe-ver, income gaps between sectors have as much impact as disparities in access to social infrastructure when it comes to determining migration dynamics, especially between rural and urban areas, and they can thus contribute to territorial imbalances.

• Productivity gains off set bythe rapidly growing labour force

Optimistic projections for 2050 based on “potentially cultivable land” anticipate a pos-sible 80% increase in cropped areas in Africa relative to 2010. According to this hypothesis and with an estimated 330 million more people entering the agricultural labour force, land available per farm worker could fall from slightly more than 1 ha on average to around 0.7 ha. In some countries, pressure for land could result in land per worker being more than halved.

Under these conditions, leveraging agriculture implies ensuring ample scope for increasing yields or cropping intensity. Irrigation poten-tial is certainly high, but climate change will aff ect the productivity of land and marginal land will also be used for cropland expansion. By applying green revolution solutions to areas currently cultivated, or adopting more inten-sive technology packages for less productive land, we obtain similar labour productivity pro-jections of around 4 200 dollars in purchasing power parity per worker/ year by 2050, or an increase of 40% in relation to the 3 000 dollars per worker/year in 2010. This outlook seems encouraging at fi rst sight and would mean agri-culture could contribute to stabilising balances between economic sectors. But anticipated changes in national economies must also be taken into account, as this growth corresponds to an increase of only 0.9% of annual income, which is low. It also masks some major dispari-ties: in 27 countries, farm income would more than double, in nine it would decrease, and16 countries would fi nd themselves

somewhere in between. In the most critical cases, migratory pressures, risks of shortages and poverty could dramatically increase.

• Diff erent trajectories requiring diff erentiated treatment

Income convergence between the agricultu-ral sector and the rest of the economy will be very unequal. In a quarter of African countries, gaps between farm income and global income varied by a factor of 1 to 4 or more in 2010. According to our projections, this gap could concern twice as many countries by 2050. However, the number of countries with farm income levels higher than 75% of all workers’ income would remain stable (12). In a small number of advanced transition countries, or countries that have yet to maximise their agricultural potential, the situation of farmers could even improve in relation to the rest of society, provided that there is an enabling ins-titutional environment. But when income gaps coincide with a reduction in the absolute value of agricultural income, we can expect serious diffi culties ensuring the agricultural sector plays its expected role as a provider of employ-ment and a regulator of migration movements and rural depopulation.

The historical path of the most developed countries combines income convergence and agricultural population decline. Some countries in the more advanced stages of demographic transition and economic diver-sifi cation could follow this path. For a minority of intermediate countries where population growth has begun to slow, or where pressure for land is relatively low, we project more fa-vourable paths for the agricultural sector with income convergence, in spite of a growing agricultural population. Finally, the majority of countries are on a worrying course towards income divergence between sectors, while the number of farmers will increase. For some of these countries, global economic growth and

average income growth will put the agricultural population at the bottom of the league.

It will therefore be necessary to defi ne speci-fi c measures to support farming populations that should be made possible by the global increase in purchasing power. This would pro-vide the fl exibility required to stimulate agri-cultural market growth, to the benefi t of pro-ducers, especially through an increase in the consumption of higher value-added products (fruit and vegetables, animal products). This context would also be more conducive to the implementation of more ambitious agricultu-ral price policies. However, for many countries, only social measures will enable farmers and their families to maintain an acceptable stan-dard of living. This approach will determine social stability and territorial balances.

Benoit Faivre-Dupaigre

Plan

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A NEW EMERGING RURAL WORLD AN OVERVIEW OF RURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA

33