m5 west widening submissions and preferred project report - … · 2014-08-20 · micro-simulation...

M5 WEST EA REPORT COVERS A4 D2.indd 1 3/09/10 1:04 PM

Traffic and transport working paper addendum

Appendix B

M5 West Widening Project

Addendum Traffic and Transport Report

May 2011

Prepared for

NSW Roads and Traffic Authority

Halcrow Suite 20, 809 Pacific Highway, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Australia

Tel +61 2 9410 4100 Fax +61 2 9410 4199

www.halcrow.com/australasia

Halcrow has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of NSW Roads and Traffic Authority for their sole and specific

use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.

© Halcrow Pacific Pty Ltd, 2011

M5 West Widening Project Addendum Traffic and Transport Report

Prepared for

NSW Roads and Traffic Authority This report has been issued and amended as follows:

Rev Description Date Prepared by Approved by

0 Draft for internal review 05/05/11 IS CW 1 Final Draft 09/05/11 IS CW

2 Final 11/05/11 IS CW

Doc: CTLRHVr07_EA_Addendum_Final.doc

Final Draft, 9 May 2011 i

Contents

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Purpose 1

1.2 Scope 2

2 Micro-simulation Model Development 3

2.1 Micro-simulation Modelling versus Strategic Modelling 3

2.2 Base Model 4

2.3 Future Models for Forecasting 8

3 The M5 Widening Project 12

3.1 East Bound Widening Extension to Fairford Road to King Georges Road 12

3.2 Results of Analysis 13

3.3 Discussion 23

4 Summary and Conclusions 27


Final Draft, 9 May 2011 1

1 Introduction

This report is an addendum to M5 Widening Project - Traffic and Transport Report – September 2010 prepared by Halcrow for the NSW Roads and Traffic Authority (herein referred to as the ‘September 2010 Traffic Report’). That report was an input to the environmental assessment undertaken on the Project and was included in Appendix E

to assessment report which was exhibited to the public in late September 2010 for a period of one month.

1.1 Purpose The purpose of this addendum is twofold:

In Section 5.2 of the September 2010 Traffic Report, reference was made to the

preparation of a Paramics1 micro-simulation traffic model that would facilitate a more in-depth analysis of the operational aspects of the Project. The primary purpose of developing such a model was to aid refinement of the Project and

identify in more detail the character of any operational issues and the appropriate

response to resolving. As such this type of modelling provides an improved understanding of the traffic performance of the Project as a whole and this is outlined in this addendum. It is important to note that the results here do not

change the conclusions drawn in the September 2010 Traffic Report.

Following the public exhibition period for the environmental assessment which

concluded in October 2010, the RTA decided to investigate how the Project might be refined to further improve outcomes for road users. As part of this investigation,

the option of providing three lanes eastbound between Fairford Road and King

Georges Road was revised using the Paramics micro-simulation model that has now been developed. It was previously assumed that an additional lane in this section would be included as part of any future M5 East expansion project. The results of

this investigation are detailed in this addendum, which indicate including additional

1 Paramics – a proprietary traffic modelling software package known as Quadstone Paramics, produced by Pitney Bowes Business Insight.

Introduction



eastbound widening as part of the M5 West Widening Project would deliver further benefits.

1.2 Scope This addendum is to be read in conjunction with the September 2010 Traffic Report as this work is an extension to that previously reported. Attention is only given to matters which differ from the results previously reported or where previously identified issues

can be more fully explained. More detailed reporting is provided on the examination of providing the three eastbound lanes between Fairford Road and King Georges Road as this will be included

in the Project.

Micro-simulation Model Development



2 Micro-simulation Model Development

The purpose of developing a micro-simulation traffic model is to be able to examine in greater detail various traffic operations on the Motorway and the immediate surrounding road network. Such modelling provides a greater understanding of how the various elements of the road infrastructure and the road users themselves affect

capacity. This level of detail allows optimisation of design with respect to lane configuration and layout and intersection controls. Additionally such modelling is a valuable tool for developing construction management plans.

The following sections provide a brief overview of the micro-simulation model used in

this analysis and how such modelling differs from strategic modelling which was relied upon in the September 2010 Traffic Report.

2.1 Micro-simulation Modelling versus Strategic Modelling Microsimulation traffic modelling is a relatively new technology that provides a tool to more objectively assess the effectiveness of various traffic management measures beyond simply evaluating the effects of additional capacity provided by new traffic lanes

or road links. Micro-simulation is a vehicle-by-vehicle modelling of traffic that enables

visualisation of expected traffic conditions such that it enables a more precise understanding of:

Travel time of different categories of road users such as cars, trucks, buses, etc;

Effects of queuing at congestion points such as lane mergers;

Effects of blockage in one part of the system on other parts of the network; and

Effects of other road users on vehicle delays.

Because of the high level of detail of these models, they are more suited for examination

of corridors and town centres. Strategic modelling on the other hand is often referred to as aggregate modelling as it

models traffic as a homogenous flow, like fluid. These models lend themselves to

examination of much larger areas such as whole cities and as long-term planning tools.




2.2 Base Model The development of the base micro-simulation model for the M5 West Motorway

corridor has been separately documented in M5 West Widening Traffic Modelling – Paramics Model Calibration Report 6 January 2011 prepared by Halcrow for NSW Roads and Traffic Authority. The following provides as summary of detail with respect to area of coverage of the model, its relationship to the strategic model, and the additional data needs to

calibrate and validate the model.

2.2.1 Coverage The model area extends along the length of the F5 Freeway and the M5 Motorway between Raby Road in Campbelltown to King Georges Road in Beverley Hills. The

model also includes the alternative routes of Campbelltown Road, Hume Highway,

Newbridge Road, Milperra Road and Canterbury Road together with small segments of major cross corridor roads such as Stacey Street and King Georges Road.

Traffic demand for the micro-simulation model is sourced from the equivalent sub-area

in the strategic model. The strategic model sub-area contains approximately 141 traffic zones disaggregated to 153 zones for the micro-simulation model. This is because micro-simulation models contain higher level detail in the representation of the road

network.

2.2.2 Calibration and Validation Because of their detail, calibration and validation of a micro-simulation models require

the gathering of additional data with respect traffic operations. This includes:

Lane configurations

Parking restrictions

Traffic turning movement counts

Traffic signal timing data and phases

Vehicle travel times by hour

Bus routes and timetables

Vehicle queuing and congestion observations




Table 2-1 and Table 2-2 are extracted from the previously cited Calibration Report and presents the actual travel time recorded on the motorway to validate results for the 2010 morning and evening peak period.

The results illustrate the much improved representation of reality compared to the strategic model representation reported in the September 2010 Traffic Report. The micro-simulation thus provides an improved basis to examine the Project.




Table 2-1 – 2010 AM Peak Period Travel Times (minutes)

Road Segment Observed

Travel Times Modelled Travel

Times M5 Eastbound Raby Rd to Brooks Rd 04:23 04:15 Brooks Rd to Camden Valley Way 04:23 03:00 Camden Valley Way to Hume Highway 03:59 03:45 Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 00:40 00:52 Moorebank Av to M5 Toll Plaza 02:51 02:55 M5 Toll Plaza to Henry Lawson Dr 01:18 01:45 Henry Lawson Dr to The River Rd 03:02 03:45 The River Rd to Fairford Rd 03:01 02:35 Fairford Rd to Belmore Rd 04:06 03:40 Belmore Rd to King Georges Rd 06:26 08:20 34:09 34:52 M5 Westbound Brooks Rd to Raby Rd 01:22 03:55 Camden Valley Way to Brooks Rd 01:30 02:45 Hume Highway to Camden Valley Way 01:27 02:55 Moorebank Av to Hume Highway 02:19 00:57 M5 Toll Plaza to Moorebank Av 01:20 02:10 Henry Lawson Dr to M5 Toll Plaza 02:33 01:09 The River Rd to Henry Lawson Dr 00:44 02:25 Fairford Rd to The River Rd 02:50 00:51 Belmore Rd to Fairford Rd 01:30 00:38 King Georges Rd to Belmore Rd 01:22 01:20 16:58 19:05 Alternative Route EB Raby Rd to Brooks Rd 06:31 07:10 Brooks Rd to Camden Valley Way 05:47 06:55 Camden Valley Way to Hume Hwy 05:43 05:05 Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 04:01 06:15 Moorebank Av to Henry Lawson Dr 10:18 08:10 Henry Lawson Dr to The River Rd 05:33 05:40 The River Rd to Fairford Rd 04:24 04:05 42:17 43:20 Alternative Route WB Brooks Rd to Raby Rd 06:01 05:30 Camden Valley Way to Brooks Rd 05:04 06:45 Fairford Rd to The River Rd 03:21 03:50 Henry Lawson Dr to Moorebank Av 06:01 05:45 Hume Hwy to Camden Valley Way 03:26 03:50 Moorebank Av to Hume Hwy 03:54 04:23 The River Rd to Henry Lawson Dr 06:10 06:45 33:57 36:48




Table 2-2 – 2010 PM Peak Period Travel Times (minutes)

Road Segment Observed

Travel Times Modelled Travel

Times M5 Eastbound Raby Rd to Brooks Rd 04:10 03:35 Brooks Rd to Camden Valley Way 02:39 02:20 Camden Valley Way to Hume Highway 02:40 02:45 Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 00:43 00:36 Moorebank Av to M5 Toll Plaza 02:09 02:50 M5 Toll Plaza to Henry Lawson Dr 01:14 01:37 Henry Lawson Dr to The River Rd 02:10 01:50 The River Rd to Fairford Rd 02:14 00:48 Fairford Rd to Belmore Rd 01:29 00:46 Belmore Rd to King Georges Rd 01:19 01:21 20:48 18:28 M5 Westbound Brooks Rd to Raby Rd 06:56 05:25 Camden Valley Way to Brooks Rd 05:50 02:45 Hume Highway to Camden Valley Way 02:41 04:20 Moorebank Av to Hume Highway 00:48 01:14 M5 Toll Plaza to Moorebank Av 02:41 02:20 Henry Lawson Dr to M5 Toll Plaza 01:36 01:13 The River Rd to Henry Lawson Dr 03:16 03:05 Fairford Rd to The River Rd 01:52 02:30 Belmore Rd to Fairford Rd 03:29 02:40 King Georges Rd to Belmore Rd 03:43 04:30 32:52 30:02 Alternative Route EB Raby Rd to Brooks Rd 05:43 07:15 Brooks Rd to Camden Valley Way 05:42 06:25 Camden Valley Way to Hume Hwy 04:39 04:10 Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 06:15 04:50 Moorebank Av to Henry Lawson Dr 06:00 05:25 Henry Lawson Dr to The River Rd 04:32 04:50 The River Rd to Fairford Rd 03:11 02:35 36:04 35:30 Alternative Route WB Brooks Rd to Raby Rd 10:00 06:15 Camden Valley Way to Brooks Rd 06:14 07:25 Fairford Rd to The River Rd 03:49 04:30 Henry Lawson Dr to Moorebank Av 08:19 05:30 Hume Hwy to Camden Valley Way 06:01 05:10 Moorebank Av to Hume Hwy 05:02 05:25 The River Rd to Henry Lawson Dr 04:27 04:05 43:51 38:20




2.3 Future Models for Forecasting To maintain consistency and relationship with the September 2010 Traffic Report,

micro-simulation models were developed for 2016 AM and PM peak periods. Models were not developed for 2026 as base forecast travel demand and road network detail is too imprecise at this planning horizon to warrant detailed micro-simulation modelling. Strategic modelling is the appropriate tool for long term planning.

The future 2006 network for micro-simulation traffic modelling contains the same assumptions as adopted for the strategic modelling. Similar to the 2010 base models, traffic demand for 2016 was extracted from the strategic model sub-area.

To allow for a robust assessment of the Project scenarios, a Business as Usual scenario has been modelled, which takes the 2010 Base model and applies 2016 traffic growth forecast by the strategic model, with no additional network changes. The Business as

Usual model forms the basis of comparison for the Project scenarios; the results of this

model are also compared to the original strategic model forecasts provided in the September 2010 Traffic Report.

2.3.1 Traffic Forecasts Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 illustrate the comparative traffic volumes at various points in

the road network for both the strategic and micro-simulation models under the same 2016 Business as Usual Scenario.

Both sets of estimates show a good degree of agreement between the forecasting methods. However there is some variance and this is noted at locations that suffer high degrees of congestion as indicated by the very poor levels of service detailed in Table 3-12.

Overall the microsimulation is reporting comparable changes in traffic volumes on the motorway resulting for the Projects.




Figure 2.1 - Strategic and Micro-Simulation Traffic Forecast Comparison (2016 AM Business As Usual Scenario)

2016 AM Business As Usual Scenario

2,9

90

3,7

00

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10 3

,04

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Strategic Forecast

Micro-Simulation Model

Figure 2.2 - Strategic and Micro-Simulation Traffic Forecast Comparison (2016

PM Business As Usual Scenario)

2016 PM Business As Usual Scenario

3,8

10

3,8

10

3,2

30

3,2

40

1,4

40 1,7

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Strategic Forecast

Micro-Simulation Model




Figure 2.3 - Strategic and Micro-Simulation Model M5 Eastbound Travel Time

Comparison (2016 AM Business As Usual Scenario)

M5 Eastbound Travel Time - 2016 AM Business As Usual Scenario

0.0

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Strategic Section Time 4.3 3.4 7.0 0.5 3.6 2.0 2.6 1.0 1.2 2.1

Micro-Simulation Section Time 4.2 7.2 10.3 1.1 2.9 1.8 5.2 3.4 4.2 8.3

Strategic Cumulative Time 4.3 7.7 14.7 15.2 18.8 20.8 23.4 24.4 25.6 27.7

Micro-Simulation Cumulative Time 4.2 11.3 21.6 22.7 25.6 27.3 32.5 35.9 40.1 48.3

Raby Rd - Brooks Rd

Brooks Rd - Camden

Valley Way

Camden Valley Way -Hume Hwy

Hume Hwy - Moorebank

Av

Moorebank Av - M5 Toll

Plaza

M5 Toll Plaza - Henry

Henry Lawson Dr - The River

The River Rd -

Fairford Rd

Fairford Rd - Belmore Rd

Belmore Rd - King

Georges Rd

Figure 2.4 - Strategic and Micro-Simulation Model M5 Westbound Travel Time

Comparison (2016 PM Business As Usual Scenario)

M5 Westbound Travel Time - 2016 PM Business As Usual Scenario

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Strategic Section Time 2.6 1.5 1.7 4.5 2.3 4.2 0.9 6.8 3.1 4.2

Micro-Simulation Section Time 5.5 2.7 2.5 3.2 1.3 4.2 3.1 5.2 2.8 3.3

Strategic Cumulative Time 2.6 4.1 5.8 10.2 12.6 16.7 17.6 24.5 27.6 31.7

Micro-Simulation Cumulative Time 5.5 8.2 10.7 13.8 15.1 19.3 22.4 27.5 30.4 33.6

Raby Rd - Brooks Rd

Brooks Rd - Camden

Valley Way

Camden Valley Way -Hume Hwy

Hume Hwy - Moorebank

Av

Moorebank Av - M5 Toll

Plaza

M5 Toll Plaza - Henry

Henry Lawson Dr - The River

The River Rd -

Fairford Rd

Fairford Rd - Belmore Rd

Belmore Rd - King

Georges Rd




2.3.2 Travel Time Forecasts In contrast to the traffic forecasts, the forecast travel time estimates illustrated in Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4 do vary between the two modelling methods. As previously

highlighted, micro-simulation modelling is able more accurately reflect the effects of queuing and congestion delay and the figures show this. The morning peak period currently operates at high levels of congestion and delay and

this is expected to further worsen into the future. Figure 2.3 shows sections of the motorway operating at low speeds (i.e. high travel times) and these sections correspond with areas of observed high levels of congestion and queuing under current operating conditions.

The micro-simulation modelling shows strategic modelling to underestimate travel times in periods of congestion.

This is further illustrated by the PM peak period results in Figure 2.4. The evening

outbound peak flow does not operate at such high levels of congestion as does the morning peak and the two forecast travel times are reasonably comparable.

Overall the analysis demonstrates the improved accuracy the micro-simulation

modelling brings to the operational analysis.



3 The M5 Widening Project

The M5 West Widening Project as described in the Environmental Assessment and examined in the September 2010 Traffic Report, is the subject of analysis in this report.

The Project includes the following additional network changes in addition to those included in the Base 2010 scenario:

An additional lane eastbound on the M5 Motorway between Camden Valley

Way and the Hume Highway and between Moorebank Avenue and Fairford

Road

An additional lane westbound on the M5 Motorway between King Georges

Road and Moorebank Avenue and between Hume Highway and Camden Valley Way

In addition to these changes, the Project scenario also assumes a revised design for the

interchange of Camden Valley Way, the M5 Motorway and the M7 Motorway to accommodate the additional eastbound and westbound lanes on the M5 Motorway.

3.1 East Bound Widening Extension to Fairford Road to King Georges Road Earlier in the project development, RTA decided not to include widening to three lanes eastbound between Fairford Road and King Georges Road due to a concern that it may further exacerbate existing congestion where M5 West Motorway joins M5 East.

However, following the public exhibition period of the environmental assessment, the RTA decided to review the option of providing three lanes eastbound between Fairford Road and King Georges Road.

Results of this micro-simulation modelling reported in this section indicate that including additional eastbound widening would deliver further benefits. As a

The M5 Widening Project



consequence of this analysis the RTA decided to include the additional section of widening into the Project.

Specifically, the additional widening scenario has also been developed that extends the widening of the M5 Motorway in the eastbound direction to include a trap lane from Fairford Road to King Georges Road. This additional lane leads directly into the eastbound off-ramp to King Georges Road. In all other respects, this network scenario

is identical as previously described.

3.2 Results of Analysis A number of performance measures have been selected for reporting the modelled

impacts of the proposed widening scenarios. These performance indicators include:

Average travel times by section along the M5 Motorway

Average travel times by section along the toll-free alternative route

Link flows at selected locations along the M5 Motorway

Traffic conditions in the corridor, particularly in the morning peak, are highly congested both on the M5 Motorway and on sections of the toll-free alternative. In many cases,

interchanges and intersections in the corridor are at or over capacity, which can lead to

high variability in traffic delays on a day-to-day basis. This is reflected in the models when considering multiple runs. For this reason, each model has been run five times, and a median model run has been selected on the basis of total vehicle hours of travel.

The results presented below are all derived from this median run, with some results

having greater degrees of variability associated with them.

3.2.1 Traffic Volumes Modelled traffic flows were collected for a number of key locations in the model. These

flows are presented below in Table 3-1 and Table 3-2.




Table 3-1 – Morning Peak Average Hourly Modelled Link Flows Location Base Business

as Usual

Project Project+

Widening to

King

Georges Rd

M5 E of King Georges Rd EB 2936 2899 2863 2868 WB 3806 3810 3864 3828

M5 W of King Georges Rd EB 2459 2368 2303 2336 WB 3277 3219 3333 3293 Canterbury Rd W of King Georges Rd EB 971 1030 1040 1019

WB 821 814 849 825 Hammonville Toll Plaza EB 3428 3182 3660 3709

WB 3573 3598 3670 3610 Newbridge Rd W of Henry Lawson Dr EB 3054 3097 2978 3029 WB 1507 1524 1472 1527

M5 S of Hume Hwy EB 3717 3378 4057 4049 WB 3359 3355 3484 3440 Hume Hwy S of Kurrajong Rd NB 2440 2440 2506 2507

SB 1032 989 1022 1038

Table 3-2 – Evening Peak Average Hourly Modelled Link Flows Location Base Business

as Usual

Project Project +

Widening to

King

Georges Rd

M5 E of King Georges Rd EB 3623 3725 3679 3650 WB 3493 3408 3570 3556 M5 W of King Georges Rd EB 3270 3315 3349 3371

WB 2793 2758 3051 2988 Canterbury Rd W of King Georges Rd EB 1145 1190 1165 1180 WB 1198 1226 1229 1219

Hammonville Toll Plaza EB 3405 3437 3629 3602 WB 3905 3841 4229 4159 Newbridge Rd W of Henry Lawson Dr EB 1668 1671 1634 1573

WB 3093 3101 3134 3109 M5 S of Hume Hwy EB 3125 3237 3300 3306

WB 3727 3533 3896 3752 Hume Hwy S of Kurrajong Rd NB 1359 1445 1375 1382 SB 2719 2718 2727 2705




The traffic flows reported above differ from those presented as outputs from the Strategic Model, primarily because they represent actual capacity constrained flow, and not demand. This can mean that in some cases, demand may increase while

corresponding flows may decrease, due to capacity constraints or the interaction of vehicles. Overall, the traffic flows show a general increase in flows in the corridor from the base

case to the Business as Usual scenario, with further increases in flows in both widening scenarios. This is consistent with the Strategic Model forecasts of future demand. Further discussion of anomalous flows is given in Section 3.3 below.

3.2.2 Travel Times The following travel time measurements were taken from the model:

Section-by-section travel times along the M5 between Raby Road and King

Georges Road;

Section-by-section travel times along the toll-free alternative between Raby Road

and Fairford Road; and

Travel time for trips travelling the full length of the M5 Motorway south of

Raby Road to the east of King Georges Road.

These travel times are presented below in Table 3-3 to Table 3-10.




Table 3-3: M5 Morning Peak Eastbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR

Raby Rd and Brooks Rd 04:15 04:10 03:40 03:30 Brooks Rd and Camden Valley Wy 03:00 07:10 03:50 03:50

Camden Valley Wy and Hume Highway 03:45 10:15 02:50 03:05 Hume Hwy and Moorebank Av 00:52 01:05 01:04 01:08 Moorebank Av and M5 Toll Plaza 02:55 02:55 05:45 03:25

M5 Toll Plaza and Henry Lawson Dr 01:45 01:45 03:50 01:45 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 03:45 05:10 08:30 03:40

The River Rd and Fairford Rd 02:35 03:25 04:50 03:20 Fairford Rd and Belmore Rd 03:40 04:10 03:55 05:45 Belmore Rd and King Georges Rd 08:20 08:15 08:30 13:00

Total 34:52 48:20 46:44 42:28

Table 3-4: M5 Morning Peak Westbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR


Camden Valley Wy and Hume Highway 02:55 03:00 02:40 02:40 Hume Hwy and Moorebank Av 00:57 01:03 00:53 00:53

Moorebank Av and M5 Toll Plaza 02:10 02:10 02:25 02:20 M5 Toll Plaza and Henry Lawson Dr 01:09 01:10 01:06 01:05 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 02:25 02:30 02:10 02:10


Total 19:05 18:22 17:33 17:38




Table 3-5: M5 Evening Peak Eastbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR


Camden Valley Wy and Hume Highway 02:45 02:50 02:30 02:30 Hume Hwy and Moorebank Av 00:36 00:38 00:32 00:32 Moorebank Av and M5 Toll Plaza 02:50 03:00 02:30 02:30

M5 Toll Plaza and Henry Lawson Dr 01:37 01:40 01:35 01:35 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 01:50 02:00 01:50 01:50


Total 18:28 19:33 18:20 18:04

Table 3-6: M5 Evening Peak Westbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR


Camden Valley Wy and Hume Highway 04:20 05:10 03:00 02:55 Hume Hwy and Moorebank Av 01:14 03:05 02:20 02:20

Moorebank Av and M5 Toll Plaza 02:20 04:10 03:35 04:15 M5 Toll Plaza and Henry Lawson Dr 01:13 01:17 01:10 01:09 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 03:05 03:10 02:25 02:20


Total 30:02 33:37 21:27 21:46




Table 3-7: Alternative Route Morning Peak Eastbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR

Brooks Rd and Camden Valley Wy 06:55 06:45 06:45 06:50 Camden Valley Wy to Hume Hwy 05:05 04:45 04:40 04:45

Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 06:15 05:35† 06:10† 07:05† Moorebank Av and Henry Lawson Dr 08:10 09:05† 07:25† 06:50† Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 05:40 05:40 05:50 06:10

The River Rd Fairford Rd 04:05 04:15 04:40 04:45

Total 36:10 36:05 35:30 36:25 †See section 3.3.5 for explanation Table 3-8: Alternative Route Morning Peak Westbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR

Brooks Rd and Camden Valley Wy 06:45 06:30 06:30 06:35 Camden Valley Wy to Hume Hwy 03:50 03:35 03:55 03:25 Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 05:45 06:15 05:55 06:45

Moorebank Av and Henry Lawson Dr 03:50 03:55 03:45 03:45 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 04:23 07:20 06:25 08:19


Total 31:18 34:40 33:30 35:29

Table 3-9: Alternative Route Evening Peak Eastbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR


Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 04:50 04:55 04:35 04:30 Moorebank Av and Henry Lawson Dr 05:25 05:35 05:30 05:25 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 04:50 04:50 04:55 04:55


Total 28:15 28:30 28:15 28:00




Table 3-10: Alternative Route Evening Peak Westbound Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR


Hume Hwy to Moorebank Av 05:30 08:55* 07:20* 09:25* Moorebank Av and Henry Lawson Dr 05:10 05:15 05:15 05:20 Henry Lawson Dr and The River Rd 05:25 05:30 05:35 05:35


Total 32:05 35:05 35:20 36:15

*See section 3.3.6 for explanation

Table 3-11: M5 Motorway Through-Trip Travel Times Section 2010 Base 2016

Business as

Usual

2016

Project

2016

Project +

Widening

to KGR

M5 Eastbound Morning Peak 37:30 46:40 45:50 41:40 M5 Westbound Morning Peak 20:00 19:10 18:20 18:20 M5 Eastbound Evening Peak 19:10 20:00 19:10 18:20

M5 Westbound Evening Peak 30:50 32:30 21:40 21:40

The forecast travel time comparison shows that the majority of travel time benefits

from the projects are derived from trips travelling along the M5 between Camden Valley

Way and King Georges Road. There are also some additional benefits to vehicles travelling to the M7 Motorway and on the toll-free alternative route.

In the morning peak period, the widening has the effect of reducing eastbound delays

while substantially redistributing delay along the M5 Motorway from the western end to the eastern end. This redistribution of delay also benefits trips that do not use the whole length of the Motorway (i.e. not west of the Hammondville Toll Plaza).

In the evening peak, widening substantially reduces westbound delays, particularly in the section between King Georges Road and The River Road, which is currently highly congested, as well as between Moorebank Avenue and Camden Valley Way.




The project does not have a substantial impact on counter-peak travel times on the M5 Motorway, nor does it have any substantial impact on travel times along the toll-free alternative route.

3.2.3 Intersection Levels of Service Forecast intersection average delays and Levels of Service at a number of key intersections along the corridor are presented in Table 3-12 and Table 3-13 below.




Table 3-12 - Morning Peak Intersection Levels of Service Intersection Base Business as

Usual

Project Project +

Widening to

King

Georges Rd

Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS

King Georges Road/M5 61 E 66 E 66 E 64 E King Georges Road/Canterbury Road 66 E 75 F 79 F 79 F

Canterbury Road/Chapel Road South/Gibson Avenue 99 F 108 F 110 F 98 F

Canterbury Road/Milperra Road/The River Road 60 E 61 E 64 E 74 F Milperra Road/Newbridge

Road/Henry Lawson Drive 121 F 147 F 115 F 89 F

Newbridge Road/Governor Macquarie Drive 61 E 64 E 70 E 93 F

Newbridge Road/Nuwarra Road 59 E 53 D 52 D 48 D Newbridge Road/Heathcote Road 38 C 48 D 46 D 52 D

Hume Highway/Hoxton Park Road/Macquarie Street 79 F 85 F 78 F 86 F Hume Highway/M5 South West

Motorway 25 B 39 C 19 B 22 B

Hume Highway/Campbelltown Road 17 B 17 B 17 B 16 B

Camden Valley Way/M5 South West Motorway 36 C 40 C 23 B 23 B

King Georges Road/Stoney Creek Road 122 F 180 F 122 F 165 F King Georges Road/Moorefields

Road 55 D 66 E 48 D 54 D

Stacey Street/Stacey Street South 30 C 33 C 29 C 49 D Stacey Street/Macauley Avenue 48 D 46 D 42 C 62 E

Heathcote Road/Nuwarra Road 105 F 118 F 112 F 101 F Heathcote Road/Moorebank

Avenue 113 F 123 F 121 F 133 F

Hume Highway/Elizabeth Drive 78 F 82 F 95 F 88 F Hume Highway/Campbelltown

Road 17 B 17 B 17 B 16 B

Campbelltown Road/Glenfield Avenue 40 C 38 C 38 C 38 C




Table 3-13 - Evening Peak Intersection Levels of Service Intersection Base Business as

Usual

Project Project

+Widening

to King

Georges Rd

Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS Av

Delay

LoS

King Georges Road/M5 42 C 41 C 41 C 42 C King Georges Road/Canterbury Road 90 F 124 F 150 F 148 F

Canterbury Road/Chapel Road South/Gibson Avenue 84 F 81 F 109 F 99 F

Canterbury Road/Milperra Road/The River Road 44 D 44 D 44 D 44 D Milperra Road/Newbridge

Road/Henry Lawson Drive 63 E 63 E 70 E 76 F

Newbridge Road/Governor Macquarie Drive 65 E 66 E 66 E 66 E

Newbridge Road/Nuwarra Road 49 D 45 D 46 D 58 E Newbridge Road/Heathcote Road 36 C 45 D 43 D 45 D

Hume Highway/Hoxton Park Road/Macquarie Street 83 F 89 F 87 F 81 F Hume Highway/M5 South West

Motorway 22 B 21 B 24 B 24 B

Hume Highway/Campbelltown Road 21 B 21 B 28 B 19 B

Camden Valley Way/M5 South West Motorway 19 B 19 B 19 B 19 B

King Georges Road/Stoney Creek Road 89 F 88 F 83 F 90 F King Georges Road/Moorefields

Road 49 D 47 D 49 D 45 D

Stacey Street/Stacey Street South 30 C 29 C 29 C 32 C Stacey Street/Macauley Avenue 28 B 28 B 28 B 33 C

Heathcote Road/Nuwarra Road 62 E 58 E 58 E 60 E Heathcote Road/Moorebank

Avenue 33 C 75 F 34 C 43 D

Hume Highway/Elizabeth Drive 62 E 64 E 73 F 66 E Hume Highway/Campbelltown

Road 21 B 21 B 28 B 19 B

Campbelltown Road/Glenfield Avenue 30 C 29 C 31 C 33 C




A high variability in intersection average delays was observed in the model runs across the network, particularly for intersections that are at or above capacity. Furthermore,

variability in intersection delays is more pronounced in the morning peak, where traffic demand is more concentrated. Forecast intersections Levels of Service show an overall increase in delay from the Base

model to the 2016 Business as Usual scenario. This is consistent with the observation of traffic growth in the corridor forecast by the Strategic Model between 2009 and 2016. Intersection delays for both the Project and with the additional widening show a general

pattern of reduced delays for intersections at the western end of the corridor, associated

with traffic being attracted to the M5 Motorway from the toll-free alternative route. At the eastern end of the corridor, particularly on King Georges Road, the intersection delays show a pattern of increases in intersection delays associated with the increased

traffic demand on the M5 in the vicinity of King Georges Road.

3.3 Discussion 3.3.1 King Georges Road

Widening the M5 West has the effect of relieving existing morning peak capacity

constraints to the west of the Hammondville toll plaza, particularly at the M7

interchange and the section between the Hume Highway and Moorebank Avenue. Extending the widening of the M5 Motorway between Fairford Road and King

Georges Road is forecast to reduce the overall queue length for vehicles travelling to the M5 East (as a result of increased queue storage). This reduced queue length will likely provide travel time benefits for vehicles exiting the M5 Motorway at Fairford Road and Belmore Road

Delays on King Georges Road in the morning peak are currently already affected by queuing from the eastbound on-ramp to the M5. Shifting of traffic delays to the eastern end of the M5 Motorway, along with traffic growth on King Georges Road itself is

likely to result in significant increases in congestion and delay on King Georges Road. The intersections of King Georges Road with Canterbury Road and Stoney Creek Road are already operating above capacity and show high variability in their operation, with




high variability in delay. This is reflected in the forecast intersection Levels of Service and travel times.

Traffic growth around King Georges Road is also likely to affect flows on the M5 to the east and west of King Georges Road. The friction associated with current merging behaviour of traffic from King Georges Road into the slow moving eastbound traffic in the morning peak reduces the capacity of the M5 Motorway in this section. This effect is

also observed in the model, suggesting that there will be some overall degradation in eastbound capacity as demand through this section of the M5 increases.

3.3.2 The River Road Substantial westbound delays are currently observed on the M5 Motorway during the evening peak period between the River Road and King Georges Road. This delay is largely a result of drivers slowing down on the approaches to the west facing on-ramps at the River Road and Fairford Road, and to a lesser extent Belmore Road.

Due to the short merge lengths at these interchanges, particularly at Fairford Road, drivers on the M5 Motorway tend to slows down as they pass through the interchange to allow drivers to merge right from the ramps. This is the primary source of westbound

congestion at the eastern end of the M5 Motorway.

Under the Widening scenarios, this slowing behaviour is likely to be unnecessary, due to the addition of an extra lane, relieving merge delays. This is also reflected in the

modelling, which shows reductions in eastbound delay between King Georges Road and The River Road in the evening peak period.

3.3.3 M7 Interchange and Moorebank Avenue The section of the M5 Motorway between the Hume Highway and Moorebank Avenue

is currently a source of eastbound congestion in the morning peak, due to the high

volumes of traffic entering and exiting from the Hume Highway and Moorebank Avenue. Weaving behaviour in the current four-lane section causes delays that propagate west beyond the M7 interchange.

Under forecast traffic flows, this weaving behaviour is likely to result in significant delays on the M5 eastbound as far south as Camden Valley Way when interacting with




traffic merging from the M7. Widening of the M5 Motorway on either side of this section, as well as the proposed reconfiguration of the M7 and M5 interchange is likely to relieve this congestion, which is reflected in the significant reduction in eastbound

travel times in the morning peak models.

3.3.4 Stacey Street Stacey Street is currently a congested north-south corridor connecting Canterbury Road

with the Hume Highway to the north. The majority of intersections along Stacey Street operate close to capacity. It is likely that the increased demand in the M5 Motorway corridor will lead to more trips travelling north up Stacey Street, particularly in the Project scenarios, as traffic diverts from using the Hume Highway further to the west

and instead exits on Fairford Road to travel north.

This increased demand to Stacey Street is reflected in the increased intersection delays along Stacey Street. Furthermore, the Widening to King Georges Road scenario is likely

to reduce congestion on the M5 Motorway allowing more traffic to flow onto Fairford

Road and Stacey Street. Again, this is reflected in increased intersection delays along Stacey Street in the widening to King Georges Road Scenario.

3.3.5 Newbridge Road and Liverpool Traffic demand to and from Liverpool currently has a significant impact on the

operation of the M5 and Newbridge Road, particularly in the morning peak period. Traffic from the south-west can access Liverpool via the Camden Valley Way and the Hume Highway, or via the M5 and Moorebank Avenue. Similarly, traffic from the

north-west can access the M5 via the Hume Highway, or via Newbridge Road to use either Moorebank Avenue or Heathcote Road. The Project scenarios and the redistribution of traffic at the western end of the corridor

associated with them change the traffic demand pattern around Liverpool, such that there is more demand for Newbridge Road to the west of Heathcote Road. This is reflected in the average delays at this intersection, which increase with the Project with and without eastbound widening from Fairford Road to King Georges Road, and also

by the travel times that show increased eastbound delay in this section in the morning peak period. This in turn reduces the traffic to the east of Heathcote Road, resulting in an accompanying decrease in delay downstream of Heathcote Road.



3.3.6 Intersection Capacity Issues As is common on congested corridors, a number of intersections along the alternative

route are currently operating in excess of their capacity, such that traffic flow through these intersections is highly variable. Under these conditions, it is possible for the day-to-day variation in delays to be quite high, although still remaining unacceptably high.

Examples of these intersections include:

Henry Lawson Drive and Milperra Road;

Newbridge Road and Governor Macquarie Drive;

Heathcote Road and Nuwarra Road;

Heathcote Road and Moorebank Avenue; and

Hume Highway and Elizabeth Drive.

All of these intersections regularly operate at Level of Service E or F, corresponding to at or above capacity, such that many of the minor movements experience extensive delays.

Analysis of the forecast delays at these intersections across a number of the model runs shows that the average delays at these intersections can fluctuate by as much as 15 to 30 seconds. Consequently, changes in the average delays at these intersections may not be

indicative of material changes in operation attributable to the Project with and without

the eastbound widening from Fairford Road to King Georges Road.

Summary and Conclusions



4 Summary and Conclusions

Microsimulation modelling analysis of the proposed M5 Widening Project demonstrates travel time savings for the peak directions in the morning and evening peak periods. In the morning peak period, the project has the effect of redistributing delay from the

western end of the M5 Motorway to the eastern end, while also reducing overall eastbound travel times. The Project relieves congestion between Moorebank Avenue and the Hume Highway, allowing more traffic to flow past the Hammondville toll plaza and resulting in increased travel times to the east of Henry Lawson Drive.

As a consequence of redistributing delay from the west to the east, the project is likely to impact on queuing for roads on the eastern end of the corridor, particularly King Georges Road between Canterbury Road and Stoney Creek Road. Existing queues at

the eastbound on-ramp at King Georges Road are likely to be exacerbated by increased

congestion at the eastern end of the M5 Motorway as a result of the Project. In the evening peak period, the Project has the effect of relieving westbound queuing on

the M5 Motorway in the section between King Georges Road and The River Road.

Delays currently observed in this section are caused by traffic merging onto the M5 Motorway at River Road and Fairford Road, and to a lesser extent Belmore Road. The Project is likely to increase the efficiency of these merge areas, reducing the need for

vehicles to slow down through this section and decreasing westbound delay. Reductions

in westbound travel time are also likely between Moorebank Avenue and Camden Valley Way, where the additional approach and departure lanes allow weaving in the section between Moorebank Avenue and the Hume Highway to operate more efficiently.

The Project also has the effect of redistributing traffic and delay on the toll-free alternative route, particularly at the western end of the corridor around Liverpool. On balance, however, travel times along the toll-free alternative route remain largely

unchanged by the Project in the morning and evening peak periods.

Summary and Conclusions



The extension of the Project to include widening of the M5 eastbound between Fairford Road and King Georges road is likely to result in further reductions in eastbound travel times in the morning peak. The extension of the project is also likely to improve travel

times on the M5 Motorway for short trips and reduce the length of the eastbound morning queue on the M5 Motorway. This is likely to result in fewer vehicles stored on the M5 Motorway in the morning peak, and more traffic on the surrounding road network, particularly on Stacey Street and King Georges Road. This is reflected in

higher forecast delays on these roads in the Project extension scenario. Extension of the Project to King Georges Road is unlikely to result in any change in operation of the M5 Motorway in the evening peak period.

m5 west widening submissions and preferred project report - … · 2014-08-20 · micro-simulation...

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