macdonald tues 130pm ven iv.pdf

8/12/2019 MACDONALD TUES 130PM VEN IV.pdf

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/macdonald-tues-130pm-ven-ivpdf 1/40

Cat Modeling 2014: Adapting for Today – Preparing for Tomorrow

Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando FLFebruary 11, 2014

Tony MacDonaldDirector Urban Coat !ntitute

Mon"out# Uni$erity



!% &ettin' t#e &cene

!!% Call for (eilience &trate'y

!!!% Policy (e)one

!*% +nablin'C#an'e



15%

20%

25%

30%

15%

20%

25%

30%

25%

19%

15%

26%

0%

5%

10%

Next year Next 5years

Next 10years

Next 25years

Longer thanthat

Once in alifetime

0%

5%

10%

Next year Next 5years

Next 10years

Next 25years

Longer thanthat

Once in alifetime

5%4%

New Jersey Coastal Residents, February 2013



More likely,47%

Don't know,

3%

Less likely,10%

About aslikely, 41%

New Jersey Coastal Residents, February 2013



Federal government

State government

County government

Local government

18%

13%

4%

30%

33%

30%

21%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Insurance company

Neighbors

Family & friends

ommun y

organizations

13%

46%

68%

24%

29%

28%

22%

27%

Very helpful Somewhat helpful

NJ Sandy Panel Displaced Residents (!1"!13 t#rou$# 10!21!13%



Total population: 8.8 million people(2010 Census)

Population in coastal counties: 3million people (34% of statepopulation)

The leisure, hospitality andrecreation sector of the economygenerated $43.4 billion of the 2010gross state product, equating to8.9% (NJ Bureau of Labor MarketInformation 2012).

Most tourism is generated bythe Jersey Shore

The Barnegat Bay generates $4billion in annual economic activity,$2.3 billion in ecosystem servicesand $2 billion in annual wages(APP 2012).

Economic sensitivity due toweather variability is 8 – 10% ofGSP (Lazo et al. 2011).

10

Source: Lazo et al. (2011)



11

Source: NJ.com

Estimated economic losses fromSandy are 5 - 6 times the secondlargest event, the Ash Wednesday

1962 nor'easter



Severe damage to infrastructure, mass transitand the highway system

On average, 30 – 40 feet of beach lost alongthe coast. (Associated Press 2012)

72,000 buildings in New Jersey impacted bythe storm (FEMA 2012)

500 structures destroyed

5,000 structures suffered major damage

24,000 structures suffered minordama e

Estimated $29.4 billion in physical economicdamage according to Governor ChrisChristie's office

Projected to rise in the coming monthsas full impact on economy is revealed(tourism, real estate prices)

Insured losses in New Jersey estimated

around $4 billion (PCS) Total NFIP losses are estimated at

approximately $12 billion (BusinessInsurance 2012)

12

Ortley Beach, NJ – November 17, 2012Source: Ocean County Police Blotter



Sandy's storm tide ranged from 8 – 14.3feet in the NY/NJ metro area

Sea level at the Battery has increased10 – 15 inches in the last 100 years

This sea level rise, thought to be halfnatural and half anthropogenic,exacerbated Sandy's storm surge

A category 3 hurricane striking the NJ coastTODAY at high tide would bring a storm tidebetween 10 and 25 feet

With another 1 – 2 feet of anthropogenicsea level rise projected to occur by 2050,another storm less intense than Sandy willbe able to generate higher storm tides bymid-century

1

Source: NOAA/NHC



2011 &tate

Ha-ardMiti'ation Plan

20 /"ultiuridictionalcounty3ide )lan, 3it#

"unici)al )artici)ation Handful of "unici)al

)lan



(i5 include ea le$el rie

&trate'ic 6 tar'et area for retreat,tren't#enin'

For3ardLoo5in'

7ot ut e"er'ency "ana'e"ent Pre$ent8 t#rou'# land ue )lan 9re'ulation, infratructure

!nte'rated

!n$ol$e "unici)alitie in e$ery te)

Lin5 u)dated )lan to )endin'!")le"ented



Sea Level RiseProjections for MD

/T#e inde)endent,&cientific re)ortreco""end t#at i iti )rudent to )lan for

%

#i'#er in 20:0 alon'Maryland; #oreline



7ational

Diater(eco$ery

ra"e3or



TheThe

ExposureExposure

T#eT#e

&tor"&tor"&i'nificantc#aracterit

ic of

Peo)le,)ro)erty and

criticalnatural and

TheThePerformancePerformance

TheTheConsequencesConsequences

&andy< infratructure

Ho3 didt#ey react<

7ational,re'ionaland local

i")act <



."erica #a c#oen to enoy t#e i'nificant cultural,

recreational and econo"ic benefit of li$in' on t#e"id.tlantic coat, and #a been 3illin' to u))ortt#e loe incurred by natural diater%

ri5 of natural diater< Ho3 do 3e =uantify t#e reilience of t#e coatal

infratructure< >#at contitute a reilient co""unity< Ho3 to en#ance t#e reilience of t#e coatal

infratructure and t#e co""unitie t#at 'enerateocietal benefit and re"ain e?)oed to "aortor"<



Cutter @200A



FEMA’s Best Available Data



Digital Coast ResilienceData and Tools Coastal County Snapshots

C-CAP Land Cover Atlas Coastal Lidar

SLR and Coastal FloodingImpacts Viewer

ENOW

http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/



333%7FloodMa))er%or'



Plan for t#e

333%Pre)areourCo""unity%



Resilience

Theimagec annotbe displayed.Your computer may nothave enough memory to open theimage,or theimage may havebeen corrupted.Restart your computer,and then open thefileagain. Ifther ed x stillappears,you may haveto deletetheimageand then insertit again.



Date Event Region RegionalOutages

PSE!Outages

.u'ut 2011 Tro)ical &tor"!rene

Mid.tlantic ,200,000 AE2,000

October 2011 +arly &no3 7e3 +n'land ,000,000 E,000

7o$e"ber2011 >indtor" California 400,000

uly 2012 >ildfire California,Colorado

2,000,000

uly 2012 Derec#o Mid.tlantic 4,200,000

October 2012 &u)ertor" &andy 7ort#eat,Mid.tlantic

A,100,000 2,000,000

31



Cuto"er and +=ui)"ent 1%GA "illion Cuto"er i")acted

G0 lot )o3er durin' t#e e$ent

14 &3itc#in' &tation affected 6 E too5 tor" da"a'e, Out, 1 Bu &ection Failure

:1 tran"iion line affected 6

G P&+9I &ubtation affected 6 G

,

Plannin' i""ediately 3a focued on )rioriti-in'tran"iion line to be reener'i-ed to retore3itc#in' and ubtation 3it# t#e lar'et cuto"ercount

>or5 be'an i""ediately after tor" ur'e receded at

t#e tation and once 3ind 'ut dro))ed belo3 40")# in t#e di$iion

Current eti"ate of t#e cot aociated 3it# t#eretoration i bet3een J2:0 J00 "illion

32



P&+9I filed it Energ" Strong Pro'ra" 3it# t#e7BPU on February 20t# , 201%

Pro)oal J%G billion in in$et"ent o$er t#e

to and reco$er fro" future e$ere 3eat#er e$entt#rou'# yte" #ardenin' and reiliency"eaure%

Pro)oal addree bot# electric and natural 'ayte" i")ro$e"ent

33



Ho3 "i'#t ri5related)rinci)le contribute to t#e

de$elo)"ent of dei'ntandard for coatal ri5reduction )roect<

Ho3 "i'#t ri5related)rinci)le increae t#e

ability of co""unitieto )re)are for coataltor" , and adut to

dyna"ic, ea le$el rie< >#at 'eneral )rinci)le

"i'#t be ued to 'uidefuture in$et"ent inU%&% coatal ri5reduction<



Call for Resilience FundingAuthorities for MultijurisdictionalInfrastructure Needs

Financial Support for Lost LocalCommunity Tax Dollars

Financing Assistance Directed atLow Income Households andSmall Businesses

Cost/Benefit and Zoning Overlays

– Transition, Impact (failgracefully), Design transformation,Receiving

macdonald tues 130pm ven iv.pdf

Documents