Machinery and Equipment and PPPsRichard Dibley

3rd Technical Advisory Group Meeting

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….relevant extensive personal experience working on Eurostat capital goods

surveys….

IntroductionIntroduction

• Since 1980s: Collection of the data for the UK surveys

• 2000 – 2004: Management of the EG surveys in all EU countries (in conjunction with construction)

• Since 2004: Responsibility for the 37 countries participating in the Eurostat programme

• 2005 – 2006: Worked on the ICP program for the UK data

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Machinery and EquipmentMachinery and Equipmentand PPPs:and PPPs:

Survey 2011Survey 2011

4….following by discussion….

Topics to coveredTopics to covered

• Background

• Objectives and approach

• Methodology and work proposals

• Pilot survey

• The structure and content of the core product list

• Pilot survey: arrangements

• Future activities

• Summary

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….these bodies have co-operated for many years….

BackgroundBackground

• The ICP program 2005 - 2006

• Eurostat surveys

• Work and experience from other organisations, principally OECD

….sources and experience ….

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Overall objectivesOverall objectives

• To prepare a core list of products to be used for the regions

• To achieve a list that will reflect products available in all regions

• To include representative and identical products across all regions

• To prepare associated data recording and analysis methods

…..regions will have their own lists for their countries…..

…..principally to development a core product list…

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….conclusion: difficult for analysis and difficult to compare prices….

The ICP survey: 2005 - 2006The ICP survey: 2005 - 2006

• General specifications - holistic

• Difficult to price – too vague

• Skewed towards some BHs

• List biased towards N. American makes and models

• Two BHs were omitted

….some problems….

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….to learn from the lessons from the past…….

Approach: 2010 – 2011 Approach: 2010 – 2011

• To move towards the Eurostat approach

• To include at least some specific identical and representative products

• To reflect global markets and products

• To integrate the products, data collection and analysis

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….a significant trend in the last few years…….

Approach: comments Approach: comments

• Increasing penetration of global markets by multi-national companies

• Increasing availability of products internationally

• This will facilitate finding identical products across regions

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MethodologyMethodology

• Study of previous survey results

• Evaluate other lists and work

• Research new products, as appropriate

• Develop the structure of the list

• Discuss and finalise the list

• Design of specification sheets

• Plan analysis methods

…..to end up with a core product list ready for the main survey in mid-2011…

11….the main survey will take place in mid-2011…..

ProposalsProposals

• Start with the Eurostat list for the 2009 survey

• Include results for the ICP 2005 – 2006 as appropriate

• The list will be divided between generic and specific products

• There should be an initial pilot survey

• Data recording and analysis methods will be adapted from Eurostat

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The pilot surveyThe pilot survey

….is the emphasis of the presentation today….

13….the first step is the pilot survey….

Pilot survey: objectives (1)Pilot survey: objectives (1)

• To test the overall approach

• To determine which generic products and items are submitted

• To determine the extent to which specific products are found

• To determine the extent to which makes and models not included in the initial list (equivalent) are submitted

….important to carry out initial work before the main survey….

14….the first step is the pilot survey….

Pilot survey: objectives (2)Pilot survey: objectives (2)

• To ensure that the final list reflects global makes and models

• To remove bias from initial list

• To ensure that the final list is balanced across the regions

….important to carry out initial work before the main survey….

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….implementation - later in 2010….

Pilot survey: commentsPilot survey: comments

• Carry out the pilot survey in two regions

• Finalise draft core product list

• To decide about the efficacy of the proposed method Implementation

….pilot survey is the next stage of the work…..

16….and reflect across regions…….

The core product list The core product list

• A list including all 17 BHs

• There will be more or less an equally number of products in each BH

• A combination of specific and generic products and items

• The products included are based on the list of the ICP survey and the Eurostat 2009 list

……to aim to select representative and identical products across all BHs…..

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….the list is split into products and items…

Products and items Products and items

• A product defines a group of specific pieces of machinery or equipment

• Products are defined in the classification of BHs

• For our purposes products are sold in commercial markets as opposed as in consumer markets

• An item is a sub-division and a variation of a product (e.g. a particular model and/or make of a product)

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….but constrained by the classification….

ClassificationClassification

• Based on CPA 1996

• Sometimes difficult to find suitable products in some BHs

• Out-of-date

• The technology has moved on

• Practical problems - some products cannot be realistically priced, e.g. planes

….the products defined within in each BH…..

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….starting point for the core product list….

SourcesSources

• The product list for the 2005 – 2006 ICP survey

• The 2009 Eurostat list

• Other documents, including classification lists

….list based on existing work…..

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The core product list: summaryThe core product list: summaryBH no. Title of BH 2006

Products ItemsTotal Total Generic Specified Total

I. Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (1501111) 5 6 3 3 12II. Engines and turbines, pumps and compressors (1501121) 10 8 3 5 11III. Other general purpose machinery (1501122) 5 6 3 3 10IV. Agricultural and forestry machinery (1501131) 2 6 3 3 9V. Machine tools (1501132) 6 6 3 3 10

VI. Machinery for metallurgy, mining, quarrying and construction (1501133) 22 8 3 5 13VII. Machinery for food, beverages and tobacco processing (1501134) 4 6 3 3 8VIII. Machinery for textile, apparel and leather production (1501135) 0 6 3 3 8IX. Other special purpose machinery (1501136) 5 6 3 3 8X. Office machinery (1501141) 5 6 3 3 9

XI. Computers and other information processing equipment (1501142) 9 8 3 5 18XII. Electrical machinery and apparatus (1501143) 2 7 3 4 9XIII. Radio, television and communications equipment and apparatus (1501144) 3 6 3 3 10

XIV. Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks (1501145) 10 8 3 5 14XV. Other manufactured goods n.e.c. (1501151) 0 6 3 3 8XVI. Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (1501211) 11 8 3 5 19XVII. Software (1503121) 9 10 2 8 15

TOTAL 108 117 50 67 191

2011Products

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….at this stage structure more important than specific products…

Comments on the core product listComments on the core product list

• All 17 BHs are included

• Approximately the same number products for each BH (at the moment)

• Divided by generic and specific

• Sub-divided into products and items

…..initial proposals….

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….found in various BHs….

Generic products/itemsGeneric products/items

• One: where generic products/items have their own special specifications

• Two: where generic products/items are related to the specific products/items

Two types, as below:

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The core product list: example (1)The core product list: example (1)

ItemProduct/Item no. Description Make Model

Parameters for specification sheet for generic items

I. Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (1501111)Generic

01.01 Single skinned horiz. cyl. storage tank01 01.01(a) Unspecified 100 cu. m. Special

01.02 Double skinned horiz. cyl. storage tank02 01.02(a) Unspecified 100 cu. m. Special03 01.02(b) Unspecified 50 cu. m. Special

01.03 Stainless steel beer keg04 01.03(a) Unspecified 50 litre standard Special

Specific01.04 Packaged steam boiler

05 01.04(a) Viessmann (Germany) Vitomax 200 HS, model 23706 01.04(b) Viessmann (Germany) Vitomax 200 HS, model 23707 01.04(c) Viessmann (Germany) Vitoplex 200 SX2 1950 kW08 01.04(d) Viessmann (Germany) Vitoplex 200 SX2 1950 kW

01.05 Hacksaw09 01.05(a) Stanley (USA) Multiposition hacksaw 15-12010 01.05(b) Stanley (USA) High-Tension Hacksaw11 01.05(c) USAG (Italy) 200 S

01.06 Automotive tool set12 01.06(a) Facom (France) Tool set BT.11A

24….found in some other BHs……….

Example (1): explanationExample (1): explanation

• BH I: Fabricated metal products

• Split by generic (unspecified) and specified products (makes and models)

• Items under products, as appropriate

• Generic products have special specifications

• No specific makes/models for these products

..where generic items have special specifications..

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The core product list: example (2)The core product list: example (2)

ItemProduct/Item no. Description Make Model

Parameters for specification sheet for generic items

II. Engines and turbines, pumps and compressors (1501121)Generic

02.01 Portable screw compressor13 02.01(a) Unspecified - 02.04(a)

02.02 Diesel engine (general purpose)14 02.02(a) Unspecified - 02.05(a)

02.03 Water pump (stationary)15 02.03(a) Unspecified - 02.07(a)

Specific02.04 Portable screw compressor

16 02.04(a) Atlas Copco (USA) XAS 67 Dd Series 717 02.04(b) Atlas Copco (USA) XAS 77 Dd Series 7

02.05 Diesel engine (general purpose)18 02.05(a) Yanmar (Japan) 3TNV88-DSA

02.06 Industrial petrol engine19 02.06(a) Honda (Japan) GX 270 SWC 420 02.06(b) Honda (Japan) GX 160 SX 4

02.07 Water pump (stationary)21 02.07(a) Grundfos (Denmark) TP 32-320/222 02.07(b) Grundfos (Denmark) TP 32-380/2

02.08 Water pump (portable)23 02.08(a) Honda (Japan) WB 20 X

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….where generic products/items are related to special products……….

Example (2): explanation Example (2): explanation

• BH II: Engines and turbines

• Split by generic (unspecified) and specified products (makes and models)

• Items under products, as appropriate

• Generic products/items have no special specifications

….similar as for the other BHs……….

27….to finalise the list for the pilot

survey….

Further activities:Further activities:the core product list the core product list

• Types of products in each BH

• Split of generic and specific products

• Items under each product

• Research new products (if any)

• Preparation of specification sheets

….discussion and agreement….

28….need current makes and models….

The core list: checkingThe core list: checking

• Availability of products

• Ensure makes are current

• Ensure models are current

• Update all specifications

..as near as possible to the start of the fieldwork….

• Product life cycles• Particular attention to BH XI

Computers and BH XVII Software

NB:

29….the next steps….

Pilot survey: arrangements Pilot survey: arrangements

• Preparation of the final specification sheets

• Decisions regarding data collection

• Development of the methods and tools for analysis

• Timing

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….test the product list and the methodology….

Pilot survey: fieldwork Pilot survey: fieldwork

•Two contrasting regions:

One “difficult”, e.g. Africa

One “different”, e.g. Asia

•Try to research ALL products and items, including generic and specific

•Propose any new products

31….to refine the list…….

Pilot survey: analysis Pilot survey: analysis

• Evaluation of the results

• Examine generic products/items

• Examine specific products/items

• Analysis of equivalent products submitted in specific positions

• Form groups/splits from products/items that worked

• Incorporate any new products/items

• Evaluate the overall structure of the list

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….the target will be to finish the core product list for the main survey….

Post-pilot survey activities Post-pilot survey activities

• Combine generic and specific products/items

• Delete any products/items

• Research current products and items

• Finalise the structure of the list

• Checking the list

• Finalise specification sheets/data collection methods

• Finalise analysis procedures and tools needed

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….main fieldwork will take place in mid-2011

Summary Summary

• Further work on the core product list

• Agree the structure and content of the list

• Finalise the list

• Finalise plans for the pilot survey

• Implement the pilot survey

• Analyse results

• Preparation of the core product list for the main survey

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……....thank you very muchthank you very much…..…..