macro economic prospects of africa - deukisi.deu.edu.tr/ozge.ozgen/w 3 macro economic... ·...
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A S S I S T . P R O F . Ö Z G E Ö Z G E N ,
D O K U Z E Y L Ü L U N I V E R S I T Y , F A C U L T Y O F B U S I N E S S
D E P A R T M E N T O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L B U S I N E S S A N D T R A D E
MACRO ECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF AFRICA
Main Sources:
“Africa’s Macroeconomic prospects”, www.AfricanEconomicOutlook.org, AfDB,
OECD, UNDP (2015)
World Bank Statistics (2014)
Africa’s Economic Growth
Africa’s growth was 4.2% in 2012, 3.5% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014. Average growth of African economies weakened slightly in 2015 to 3.6%.
Against this international backdrop Africa’s average economic growth is expected to remain moderate in 2016 (3.7%), but strengthen in 2017 (to 4.5%)
The 2014 growth was about one percentage point lower than expected,
the global economy remained weaker and some African countries saw severe domestic problems
At 3.9 per cent growth in 2014, East and South Asia are the only region that grew faster than Africa, at 5.9 per cent Regional Differences in Economic Growth
There are surprising regional differences.
West Africa achieved relatively high growth of 6% in 2014 despite its battle with the Ebola virus.
Nigeria’s growth of 6.3% came mainly from non-oil sectors showing that the economy is diversifying.
But Southern Africa’s growth fell below 3% as the key South African economy only grew by 1.5%.
Excluding South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 5.2% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016.
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Africa’s Growth By Region Central Africa
GDP Growth: 4.1% (2013); 5.6% (2014)
Economic conditions show differences betweencountries The Central African Republicis affected by a political and
security crisis
Central African Republic 1.0 % (2014)
In Equatorial Guinea GDP continues to fall due to lower oilproduction
Equatorial Guinea -3.1% (2014)
All other countries remain on a relatively highgrowth path. Democratic Rep. Of Congo 9.0% (2014)
AYTAÇ Ö ZT ÜRK
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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Manovo-Gounda St. Floris National ParkIt includes to the list of UNESCO World Heritage Sites
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Official language of Central African Republic is French
Central African Republic remains between Congo and Chad
basins
Central African Republic’s capital city is Bangui
Population is approximately 4.8 million
The Central African CFA franc ,code is XAF, is the currency of Central African Republic.
GDP $ 1.78 billion
GDP Growth Rate 1.0 %
GDP Per Capita $ 371
Unemployment rate 7.6 %
Inflation Rate 25.58 %
Crops Production
(Cotton, coffee, tobacco, cassava ,manioc, tapioca, yams,
corn, bananas; timber)
%85 of population work
in agriculture sector
Main sectors
-Agriculture dominant country
-Industry is limited with textile and low level manufacturing
-Soft drinks, soap and plastic goods industries such as manufacturing and food
industries are developed.
-Diamond is the major source of revenue for country
Macroeconomic Data, 2014
Douala-Bangui Road
Douala Largest city of Cameroon and, home of Cameroon's largest port and its major international airport
Main Problems of Central African Republic
Food insecurity (28% of population is effected)
Infrastructure
Security
Political instability
BUT!!! 5.4% growth expected in 2015
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O ĞUZ H A N Y A ĞI Z
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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
Basic Information about Democratic Republic of Congo
Region: Central Africa
Official Language: French
Capital City: Kinshasa
Currency: Congolese Franc (CDF)
Population: 81.680.000
Macroeconomic Data of Democratic Republic of Congo
GDP: $32.69 Billion
GDP Per Capita: $435
GDP Growth Rate: 9.0%
Inflation: 1.6%
Unemployment Rate: 8.9%
Main Source of GDP: Coltan and Diamond
Distribution of main sectors: Mining (copper, cobalt, gold, diamonds, coltan, zinc, tin, tungsten).
Source: World Bank
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SERHAT TEZGEN
2011434029
ANGOLA
ANGOLA
ANGOLA
Angola has a population of 24,383,301
is a country in Southern Africa
is bordered by Namibia to the south, the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the north, Zambia to the east, and the Atlantic Ocean to west.
Portuguese is the official language of the country.
Capital and largest city is Luanda
Currency:Kwanza
ANGOLA, 2014
GDP :$ 131.4 billion GDP Per capita :$ 5,423 GDP Growth Rate :3.9 % Inflation :11,66 Unemployment Rate :26 Distribution of GDP by sector: agriculture 10.2%
industry 61.4%services 28.4%
Oil production and its supporting activities contribute about 45 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product and over 95 per cent of exports.
!!!Angola will suffer from significantly lower oil prices
Sources:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/angola/indicatorshttp://data.worldbank.org/country/angola
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East Africa
GDP Growth: below 5% (2013); over 7% (2014)
East Africa will be the continent’s fastest growingregion
in 2014Highest increase in FDI
Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have relatively higher growth Their growth is more driven by services and construction
Macroeconomic Prospects of Africa: Ethiopia
ÖMER ŞAKRAK
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M i n e r a l s t h a t a r e f o u n d i n e t h i o p i a a r e a s f o l l o w s : g o l d ( h i g h e s t v a l u e t o t h e c o u n t r y ) , p l a t i n u m , t a n t a l i t e , i r o n , n i c k e l , z i n c , l e a d , q u a r t z , m a r b l e , g r a n i t e , g r a p h i t e a n d m o r e .
R e s o u r c e : ( h t t p : / / b l o g s . N e l s o n . W i s c . E d u / e s 1 1 2 - 3 0 8 - 1 / m i n i n g / )
M i n i n g a r e a i n E t h i o p i a
Ethiopia
Population:98,942,102 (aproximately 1.35% of the worldpopulation) (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ethiopia-population/)
Languages: Oromigna (33,8% of the population), Amharic (official language), Somali (6,25% of the population), Sidamo (4,84% of the population), Wolaytta (2,21% of the population), Gurage(2,01% of the population), Afar (1,74% of the population)
English, Arabic and Italian are the widely spoken foreign languages. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ethiopia)
Capital City: Addis Ababa
Currency: The Ethiopian Birr (1 USD= 20.9615 ETB / 14/10/2015 16:09) http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=ETB
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Macroeconomic Data of EthiopiaThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) ranks Ethiopia as among the five fastest
growing economies in the world.
GDP (USD billion): 54,8 (December 2014) GDP Annual Growth Rate: 10,3 % (December 2013) GDP Per Capita PPP: 1432 (December 2014) GDP from Agriculture: 252 ETB Billion (Aprox. 12,02 billion USD) GDP from Manufacturing: 89,6 ETB Billion (Aprox. 4,27 billion
USD) GDP from Services: 289 ETB Billion (Aprox. 13.79 billion USD) Inflation Rate: 11.9% (September 2015)
Down from 39.2% in 2011
Unemployment Rate: 17.4% of the population (December 2014) ****According to worldbank official website the unemployment rate
of the country is 5.7% of the total labor force (2013)****
From the Guardian, August 2015
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, with nearly double-digit growth every year for the last decade, but failed rains have had devastating consequences for food supplies for its 98million people.
M E H M E T B A T U H A N Ş E R M E T
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KENYA
Kenya’s wildlife attracts many visitors to the country’s national parks.
The economy slowed in the third quarter of 2014, partly due to a sharp drop in tourism following terrorist attacks in the country.
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Kenya
Region: East Africa
Official Language: Swahili, English
Capital City: Nairobi
Currency: Kenyan Shilling (KEN)
Population: 45.56 million (2014)
Macroeconomic Data of Kenya
GDP: 60.9 billion USD (2014)
GDP Per Capita: 1,358 (2014)
GDP Growth Rate: 5.3%
Inflation: 5.97 % (Sep/15)
Unemployment Rate: 40% (2013)
Main Source of GDP: 29.3% in Agriculture, 17.4% in Industry, 53.3% in Service (2013 est.)
Distribution of Main Sector: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, financial service, tourism.
North Africa
Libya is highly unstable Its oil production declined again in the first half of 2014.
Despite some recovery in the second half, growth was again negative in 2014 and prospects are highly uncertain.
By contrast, Egypt and Tunisia greater political and economic stability is helping to improve businessconfidence.
Algeria’s oil production increased for the first time in eight years and is boosting growth together with the non-oil sector.
In Morocco, agricultural production declined in 2014
LIBYA
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OIL PRODUCTION IN LIBYA
Region: Northern Africa
Official Language: Arabic
Capital City: Tripoli
Currency: Libyan Dinar
Population: 6,411,776
Libya
GDP: $41 billion
GDP per capita: $6,569
GDP growth rate: -24%
Inflation: 2.8%
Unemployment Rate: 30%
Main Source of GDP: agriculture: 2%
industry: 45.8%
services: 52.2%
Agriculture products: wheat, barley, olives, dates, citrus, vegetables, peanuts, soybeans; cattle
Industries: petroleum, petrochemicals, aluminum, iron and steel, food processing, textiles, handicrafts, cement
Libya
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Southern Africa
Growth slowed to below 3% in 2014
Relatively poor growth in South Africa. The key economy’s growth fell to 1.5% in 2014
It suffered from
weakened demand in trading partners
lower prices for its raw materials,
labor unrest and electricity shortages
South Africa
M E R V E E S E N
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South Africa and Mandela
This picture belong to Nelson Mandela whoserved as a president of South Africa from 1994 to 1999. I choosed this photo because Mandela has a role that can not be underestimated aboutthe South Africa. He was the country's first
black chief executive, and the first elected in a representative democratic election. He standagainst anti-aportheid groups and fight fordiscrimination, poorty and inequality. As a result of his effort ; he won Nobel Peace Prize in
1993, his name remove from USA terror list in 2008 and he always called as ‘ Father of theAfrica’. Unfortunately he has passed away in 5th of December, 2013.
South Africa . . .
South Africa has three capital city as ; Pretoria as Executive Capital
Bloemfontein as Judicial Capital
Cape Town as Legislative Capital
South Africa has eleven offical languages, Despite the fact that English is recognised as the language of commerce and science, South African generally use their locallanguage.
Population of South Africa ; 53,139,528 (2014)
South Africa’s national currency is South African Rand(zad)
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Macroeconomic Data of South Africa
GDP ( current US$ ) ; $ 349.8 Billion (2014) GDP Per Capita ; $ 6.477.9 (2014) GDP Growth Rate (Annual % ) ; 1.5% (2014)
; 2% (2015); 2.5% (2016 P.)
GDP by Sector ; Agriculture ; % 2.5Service ; % 65.9Industry; % 31.6
Inflation ; 4.51 % ( August 2015) ; 5.9 % (2016 P.)
Unemployment Rate ;24.9 % ( 2014, total)
Resource; World Bank Data‘sAfrican Development Bank, South Africa Report 2015
West Africa
GDP Growth 6% in 2014
!!! Ebola Crisis
Liberia and Sierra Leone are mostaffected countries
Growth of Liberia 6.8%1.8%
Growth of Sierra Leone 13.8%6.8%
Nigeria, Benin, Niger, Coted’Ivoire, Togo have relativelyhigher growth
Slow growth in Gambia
Economic Impact of EBOLA
Human hardship and high economic costs of recovery
25,000 reported cases & 10,000 reported deaths (byMarch, 2015, WHO)
Economic Impact of EBOLA
Cut production in most sectors
Hotel and restaurant services have been heavilyaffected
Airlenes cancelling services
Ships have been re-routed and increasing shippingcosts
Increase in insuarance costs
Employment and incomes have decreased
Long term impact: Lowering investments in privateand public sectors
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Nigeria Nigeria
Location: Western Africa, bordering the Gulf of Guinea, between Benin and Cameroon
Official language: English
Capital city: Abuja
Population: 181,562,056
Currency: Nigerian Naira
Nigeria
GDP: $568 billion (2014)
GDP per capita: $3,203 (2014)
GDP growth rate: 6.3% (2014 est.)
Unemployment rate: 23.9%
Inflation rate: 8.1%
Main source of GDP: petroleum and petroleum products
Top crops: cocoa, rubber peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice
Distribution of main sectors: agriculture: 20.6%
industry: 25.6%
services: 53.8%
AFRICA’S BIGGEST ECONOMIES (2014)
GDPs (Billion Dolar)
22. NIGERIA 568
33. SOUTH AFRICA 349
39. EGYPT 286
48. ALGERIA 214
60. ANGOLA 131
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Macroeconomic Prospects of Africa
S A F A K A L A Y C I
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I used this photo to represent Egypt because it is famous with its pyramids in all over the world.
EGYPT
Total Area: 1,002,450 sq. km
Region: North Africa
Capital city: Cairo
Currency: Egyptian pound (EGP)
Official Language: Arabic
Total population: 87.1 million(2014)
Macroeconomic Datas of Egypt
GDP: 286 billion (U.S. Dollars) GDP per capita: 3,723.7 dollars GDP growth rate: 2.2% Unemployment rate: 13.9% of total labor force Inflation: 13.5% Distribution of main sectors; Agriculture: 14.6% (cotton, rice, corn, wheat, beans,
fruits, vegetables, sheep, goats) MAIN COTTON PRODUCER
Industry:38.9% (textiles, food processing, tourism, chemicals, hydrocarbons, construction, cement)
Services: 46.5%
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SMART VILLAGES of EGYPT BUT!!! Africa’s Economy is effected by
fragile international environment
country specific problems
Two years after the Arab revolutions, political and social tensions continue in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia
unemployment which remains high in the region and political transition which is slow and contentious
political and military conflict in Mali.
In South Africa, growth was dampened by the global slowdown and labor unrest
Agriculture
Agriculture remains Africa’s main source of employment with around 60% of its laborforce employed in the sector
share in GDP is much smaller, accounting for an average of 25%, indicating its relatively low level of productivity and earnings
In Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Rwanda, between 80% and 90% of the total workforce are engaged in agriculture.
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Agriculture
Cotton, Coffee, cocoa
Tourism
Tourism, another important source of employment, continued to increase in several countries, but was held back in others.
Cape Verde, Seychelles, Gambia, Kenya and Ugandarecorded increasing tourist arrivals
Seychelles
Mert Deniz Günaydın2012434019
The photo is chosen since it displays the condition of Seychelles in a figurative sense - i.e. charming, welcoming, paradise-like; yet unadulterated a great deal.
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Basic Information
Languages: Seychellois Creole (Official) 89.1%, English (Official) 5.7%, French (Official) %0.7, Other 3.8%, Unspecified 1.4%
Region: Archipelago in Indian Ocean, Northeast of Madagascar. (Coordinants:4 35 S, 55 40 E)
Ethnic Groups: Seychellois Creole, French, African, Indian, Chinese, and Arab
Religions: Roman Catholic 76.2%, Protestant 10.6%, other Christian 2.4%, Hindu 2.4%, Muslim 1.6%, other non-Christian 1.1%, unspecified 4.8%, none 0.9%
Population: 92,430 (June 2015 est.)
Capital City: Victoria (pop. 26,000)
Currency: Seychellois Rupee (SCR)
Macroeconomic Data
GDP (Official Exchange Rate): $1.42 Billion
GDP (PPP): $2.40 Billion (2014)
GDP Growth Rate: 2.9% (2014), 6.6% (2013), 6% (2012)
GDP per capita (PPP): $25,600 (in 2014 USD)
Inflation Rate: 4% (2014), 3% (2013)
Unemployment Rate: 3%
Sources of Aggregate Income: Agriculture 3%, Industry 14%, Services 83.1%
Major Contribution to GDP: Tourism
Agriculture Products: Coconut, Cinnamon, Vanilla, Sweet Potatoes, Cassava, Copra, Bananas.
Industrial Production: Fishing, Beverages
Oil and Mining Sector
Oil and mining sectors have remained the main engines of growth in resource-rich countries Angola, Gabon and particularly in Libya
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer
gas discoveries found along the coast of Tanzania and Mozambique, there is large potential for future foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. East Africa is shifting from a natural resource-poor region to aresource-rich region.
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Manufacturing Sector
The manufacturing sector in Africa is relatively small with an average contribution of only about 10% to GDP.