macro energy review executive luncheon june 25, 2009
DESCRIPTION
Macro Energy Review Executive Luncheon June 25, 2009. Sources: Bloomberg, EIG, EIA, Simpson, Spence & Young, FHA, Baker Hughes, General Administration of Customs (China), Bank of America-Merrill Lynch,. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Macro Energy Review
Executive Luncheon
June 25, 2009
EIG Worldwide Oil Supply & Demand
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
J -08 J -08 A-08 S -08 O-08 N-08 D-08 J -09 F -09 M-09 A-09 M-09
Mil
. B
bl/
d
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Su
pp
ly-D
eman
d I
mb
alan
ce
in B
bl/
d
Supply-Demand Oil Demand Oil Supply
2
EIA U.S. Crude Inventory
280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Th
ou
san
d B
bls
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
3
Simpson, Spence & Young - Oil Stored at Sea
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Th
ou
san
d B
bls
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009
4
FHA Motor Vehicle Miles on Public Roads
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Bil
.Mil
es D
rive
n
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
5
E IA U.S Natural G as S torag e
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Bcf
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
6
E IA U.S . T otal Marketed Natural G as
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Bcf
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
007
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
7
U.S . S teel P roduc tion
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
000'
s o
f M
etri
c T
on
nes
/Wee
k
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
8
AAR U.S . C hemic al F reig ht C arloads
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Car
load
s/W
eek
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5 Year Avg
9
Baker Hughes U.S. Gas Rig Count
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009
Gas
Rig
Co
un
t
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
% D
raw
do
wn
Gas Rig % Drawdown Gas Rigs
10
Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009
Oil
Rig
Co
un
t
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
% D
raw
do
wn
Oil Rig % Drawdown Oil Rigs
11
C hina C rude Oil Imports
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil
. B
bl/
Day
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
% C
han
ge
fro
m 2
008
% Change from 2008 2008 2009 5-Year Avg
12
13
14
15
Sources: Bloomberg, EIG, EIA, Simpson, Spence & Young, FHA, Baker Hughes, General Administration of Customs (China), Bank of America-Merrill Lynch,
16